Friday, November 2, 2012

Gopher Friday! GOING FOR THE JUG!

Well, after the less than spectacular performance that Michigan left on the field in Lincoln, I’ve gotten over it and I believe the Wolverines have, also. Minnesota will present a challenge, but let’s not forget:


The oldest trophy in college football!  And it's not a Pig or a Turtle... And it was an accident. The Victors website has the whole thing documented and if you’re not doing anything some rainy afternoon or need to look busy in a meeting, I highly recommend reading the entire story. It’s worth it.

The FMQ has only 4 regular weeks left to make up ground…And we’re in the hole. Might have to get a little more aggressive this week if we want to finish in the black. Meaning we might break our 25% of the total bank-roll rule in order to either make it or break it for the season….

Before we get to the picks, there’s been a lot of radio and television discussion revolving around “What do we do IF” there are 4 undefeated teams at the end of the season: Bama, Duckies, Wildcats, and Domers. Not necessarily in that order. But before everyone goes a’fretting about who will get screwed, leave it to a math guy to come to the rescue of the debate.

From ESPN’s website: Chris Fallica

Developing algorithms is what ESPN's "College GameDay" research guru Chris Fallica does for fun this time of year. Fallica really needs to get a life.

Anyway, his latest formula calculates the chances of Bama, K-State, Oregon and Notre Dame entering the bowl season with undefeated records:

Notre Dame: 62.2 percent (remaining schedule: Pittsburgh, at Boston College, Wake Forest, at USC)
Alabama: 57.1 (at LSU, Texas A&M, FCS-member Western Carolina, playing-like-an-FCS-member Auburn)
K-State: 43.0 (Oklahoma State, at TCU, at Baylor, Texas)
Oregon: 18.9 (at USC, at Cal, Stanford, at Oregon State)
And the chances that all four of those teams go unbeaten: less than 2.9 percent

Huh….Ain’t that something! Math actually SUPPORTS the notion that there will be UPSETS IN NOVEMBER! If you’re a gambler…isn’t that considered “useful” information?

That should be all that’s necessary to discuss at this point in time, save this week’s picks!

This Week’s Picks:

Texas Tech (+7) vs. Texas: If this game were in Lubbock, I would probably be all over Texas Tech. AS it is, with Tubberville getting 7, it’s simply too hard to ignore for a value bet. Mack Brown’s days are starting to get numbered and I truly believe there’s a threshold that will be reached of the Shorthorns lose to Tech.
Take Texas Tech and the 7 for $40

Stanford (-27.5) @ Colorado: Again, had your FMQ been PAYING MORE ATTENTION! (I sound like I’m yelling at my own kids inside my head) I would have realized that the Buffs have been a bettors dream this season. They have only covered the spread once. That being said, I think Stanford does a little number on the Buffs similar to what the Duckies did, just not as much. And the points sound about right to the FMQ…
Take Stanford and lay the 27.5 for $30

Cornhuskers @ Sparty (-1.5 Monday….2.5 Today): Well, I like Sparty getting points at home. The Huskers have never played in East Lansing and you can bet that Sparty will be ready. Should be ready…Or is this the same ‘ole Sparty that somehow stole one from Wisconsin last week?
Take Sparty and the 2.5 for $30

Oregon (-7) @ USC (Today -8): Hmmmmmmmm…I know what the math guy said up above, but I can't go against my Ducks...Not Yet.  There’s a lot of wise guys thinking the same thing as me. Without a running game at USC, this thing turns into a scoring fest until the Duckies get to Barkley one too many times. But that won’t stop the Ducks from scoring a bunch of style points trying to improve their BCS Standings…..And did you know that the Oregon starting offense has only seen a total of something like 17 minutes of playing time in the 4th quarter for the ENTIRE SEASON? That means all the points they scored have been in 3 quarters of play. I see two bets here worth making:
Take the Ducks and lay the 8.5 for $80
Take the Over (70) for $70

Pitt (+17.5) @ Domers: Man….1 of the top 4 undefeated teams will get tested this weekend. I didn’t think it would be K-State or the Ducks, but The Domers and Bama each have tough games….Pitt’s not a pushover. Ask Va Tech. But, do they have what it takes to keep it within 17? PASS

BAMA @ LSU (+8.5): LSU getting points at home where they currently have the nation’s longest winning streak? Death Valley? Bama undefeated? There’s a reason they call it Death Valley, you know..….Against my better judgment….
Take LSU and the 8.5 for $30

Michigan (-11) @ Minnesota (MONDAY - Pick-Em)….Okay – I now must admit that a site that I had been using did NOT HAVE THE CORRECT LINE POSTED ON MONDAY. So, there’s no WAY I could have got Michigan over Minnesota even. The website I was using has been taken off my radar and I’m back to using a more reliable source. That being the case, I didn’t technically have a bet Monday and I can decide what to do with this mess today. I have to believe….HAVE TO BELIEVE (This is BAAADDDDD betting strategy) that the Wolverines fix their offensive problems and find the End Zone. The Gophers no longer play in the Magical Mystery Dome and something’s gotta give…
Take Michigan and lay the 11 for $50

Starting Bank:   $777.50
Total Bet:          $330
BANK:              $447.50

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