Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Bye Week In Review - Beyond the Top 8, THE RANKINGS DON'T MATTER!


What a weekend.  10 ranked teams in the Top 25 lost to unranked opponents, totally upsetting the applecart and making a “hodge-podge” of teams that complete the top 25 that rank anywhere below 10.  In fact, throw 15 names in a hat and you can pull them out however you want and you’re not going to get many arguments.
I guess this goes back to the argument of “Why do we have pre-season polls?” and why are certain teams penalized based on where they were ranked pre-season?  Here’s a peak at who was in the pre-season top 11.  Out of those teams, 5 will not be ranked in the Top 25 at the end of the season (most likely):  Wiscy, Miami, LNU, Auburn and Washington.  Again, why bother with pre-season?  I like the way the committee does it and WHEN they do it. 
The Committee is going to figure all of this out for us, but we know from the past EXACTLY how sneaky the ole’ committee can be!
THE MMQ’s “WHAT’S THE COMMITTEE GONNA’ DO!!”
Remember:  The Committee is SUPPOSED TO FOLLOW THE STANDARDS LISTED HERE!

College football’s national title is more directly affected by strength of schedule than that of any other major sport. It’s baked into the Playoff selection process.
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
* Championships won
* Strength of schedule
* Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
* Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
We believe that a committee of experts properly instructed (based on beliefs that the regular season is unique and must be preserved; and that championships won on the field and strength of schedule are important values that much be incorporated into the selection process) has very strong support throughout the college football community.
Heather Dinnich works for ESPN and has been following the committee’s decision for 4 years and has interviewed newest chairman AD Lawrence from Oregon where he’s stated that people may be “surprised” by what the committee reveals tonight.  He’s stated that mistakes were made in the past when prior committees didn’t value all the information that was made available to them. 

My PREDICTION For This EVENING (not for the final ranking in December!)

1.   Clemson – Beaten 3 ranked teams
2.   Bama – hasn’t beaten anyone ranked, but stats are huge…
3.   LSU – Beaten 4 RANKED TEAMS, including #2
4.   Domers – Beaten ranked teams, including #5
5.   Michigan – Controls their own destiny…they will replace whoever loses Saturday between LSU and Bama (assuming they beat PSU this weekend at home, of course)
6.   Laters – 3-point loss at neutral site, but Texas losing again makes loss look worse
7.   Georgia – See Michigan…
8.   THE STU – because…
 A Look At the Conference situations and scenarios and what surprises might be in store for us come this evening. 

SEC:  Bama – Obvious.  Sneaky Committee:  Based on how the committee has done things IN THE PAST on the first week of standings – LSU could be your #1 Team Tonight!  No, I haven’t been drinking at lunch again.  LSU has the best resume out there knocking off 4 ranked teams (Auburn, Miami, Georgia, MSU).  The committee also knows that Bama and LSU play this weekend and it’ll all take care of itself when it comes to the SEC.  And wouldn’t it be fun to hear those bama fans squeal a little based on the committee’s cleverness?   The difficult question is where would they rank Bama, who has played one team with a winning record (how sick is THAT)?  Could they be a lot lower on the list?  5th even?

The B1G:  The Sneaky Committee:  The committee knows that Michigan and the domers have the potential to be the biggest problem they will have to deal with if both continue and go undefeated through November.  The odds of that happening are infinitely low (see below), so the committee can get away with putting Michigan right behind the domers based on the fact that Michigan has beaten 2 ranked teams (LNU, Wiscy) and Michigan has the best loss (1 score to the undefeated domers) and the best SOS S&P+ and Sagarin (or ESPN Power Index).  Only problem with the #4 ranking (if and when they get there):  Gotta’ play the #1 seed, which hasn’t boded well for the B1G in prior seasons.

ACC:  Clemson – IN.  The Sneaky Committee:  This is where the sneakiness takes a break due to the fact that there’s nobody else the committee can slide up for the ACC.  Clemson will be #1 or #2.

The domers:  Will be ranked #4 tonight by the committee with their best win being Michigan in the first game of the season.  But the domers have the worst odds of all the undefeated teams of winning out.   Also consider:  This becomes another “de-facto” ACC Championship if Clemson and the domers have to square off in the semi’s.  Can the domers lose and still get in?  IT DEPENDS ON WHO THEY LOSE TO!  My answer is no, based on Sagarin and S&P+ factors alone, but the committee will be under TREMENDOUS pressure in December if the domers only loss is to rival USC.  Lose to the Purple Kitties – they’re done.     

The Big iiX:  Oklahoma will be the 6th place team.  There’s projections that have Oklahoma in if they win out…While I don’t disagree, there’s a scenario where the Laters can win out and still be left out of the CFP with 1-loss. 

The Pac 12:  IN – Nobody.  Needs a lot of help:  Washington St. - Maybe.  This would require a LOT OF TEAMS TO START Losing multiple games.    

So, the MMQ spent a little time researching the scenarios (that some of you blew up at, same way the MMQ did) and were surprised to learn that there is a very plausible scenario where Michigan could win out and not get into the CFP.
Before we all go panicking, can we just play the games…No?  Okay, so let’s review the scenarios.
Laying out the CFP scenarios (for Michigan):


The MMQ’s BIGGEST FEAR:   That the idiots on the committee will more than likely fall back on the opening game loss that Michigan suffered in South Bend instead of looking at the SOS and the Sagarin Ratings, which are very similar to Hoops (identical, actually) but not as in depth as the S&P+ stats.  But according to Oregon AD (who is the committee chair) they have come a “long way” in evaluating teams and stats since the committee started doing this in 2014.  And they admit to “making errors” in the past with respect to using bad criteria to select certain teams.
The Rest of the Mess

CUD- Complete Unmitigated Disasters – There Were Several

Texas:  This was a REALLY BAD LOSS for Texas.  Texas was actually ahead of the Laters in the AP poll because of head to head at the Shoot-Out.  Now, the Big iiX is in Big iiTrouble and needs a tremendous amount of help from other teams losing and hopefully Texas wins out from here.  That’s not a given and I’m not even sure the Laters can win out with Texas Tech and WVU still on the slate.  Bad loss for the conference.  

Washington:  Again, file under “Why do we have pre-season polls?  Losing this week takes Washington completely out of the CFP picture and Washington St. finds themselves with the “best” chance to have a say in the discussion.  But, again, a pre-season non-conference schedule filled with cream puffs screws them... 

Colorado:  So, you’re up 31-3.  That’s a pretty safe lead, especially against Oregon State – AMIRITE???  Nope.  How you lose a lead like that in today’s day and age is beyond me.  Say what you want about Michigan’s “Boring” offense, but I’ll take a stellar defense and ball control offense any day rather than lose a game like this…
Gatorland:  Right when people THOUGHT you were on the comeback, you lost BADLY in a rivalry game at a neutral site.  That’s a problem.  Georgia “sort of” played their way back into the CFP convo with the win, but that pounding they took in Death Valley still looms large…

Come Back Off The Ledge

Texas A&M – MSU is a much better team than their record would suggest.  Still, 3-losses to teams that are all ranked isn’t a terrible thing when two of the losses are to Clemson and Bama. 
Iowa – I liked the Hawkeyes to take care of business in Happy Valley, but it is an extremely difficult place to win.  Makes me think of Kinnick...

We Won But…We Should Be Worried

Purple Kitties – Beating a Wiscy team that’s not a typical Wiscy team will give you a false sense of confidence.  Unlike Michigan, that DESTROYED said Wiscy team.  I think you have a chance this weekend against the domers, but it’s going to take your best game.
Syracuse:  Sure, you beat an “OK” NC State team, but the domers loom large in November.

UTAH:  Soundly defeated UCLA and still control the PAC12 south.  The only problem with that?  A repeat against WSU who already beat you at their place.  Maybe a neutral site will be better?

Linking Laconically On A Tuesday…

Some great links to read in your spare time…

6 Crazy Things in College Football


Female Packer “Super-Fans” Don’t Recognize Desmond Howard – Try To Get Him To Become a “Packers” Fan and Invite Him to Lambaugh!

This is gotta’ be the funniest thing I’ve seen in a month.  If you’re anyone out there and you don’t know who you’re talking to, don’t be this person!


Urban Liar and THE STU Could Part Ways

Because, you know, your health is everything and when you’re losing, health is always more important and other reasons.  My take:  Urban Liar is going to assess the situation at the end of the season and make a decision as to whether or not he returns. 

Strength Of Schedule IS IMPORTANT!

As always, Bill Connelly is reliable in looking at the numbers as he’s ever been.  A good read for the nerds out there that like to look at the stats…

Figuring Out What The Committee Will Do Tuesday

Sort of what I alluded to earlier.  The committee knows it can get away with a lot early as there are games coming that will settle everything…


The 5 Stages of Slappy Fan Grief
  1. Denial and Isolation Texas.  That game was winnable, but now you’re reduced to spoiler.   
  2. ANGER – Suckeyes – Still Here. 
  3. Bargaining –Suckeyes  If we just win out…
  4. Depression –Longhorns, Suckeyes, Iowa
  5.  Acceptance – Florida State fans.  Now they’re blaming Fisher for “leaving the cupboard bare” after 4 consecutive recruiting classes that were ranked in the top 5 of the country.  I guess recruiting rankings don’t matter then?
The Hot Seat
ZAPPED List
We’ll keep track of who’s gone as the season progresses….
  1. Durkin – Criminal charges pending.  Rumor is a presser TODAY at 3:30 to announce the investigation findings of player abuse.
  2. Mike Jinks – Bowling Green.  I guess starting out 1-6 in the MAC gets you canned now…
Electric Chair of Death Seat!
  1. Ash – Rutgers:   Rutgers will probably stick with him because they can’t afford to pay him.     
The Hot Seat

  1. Petrino – If he doesn’t bolt for an NFL gig first.
  2. Malzhan – Losing to Tennessee is a fireable offense in Auburn
  3. Richt – Miami is trending downward in a weak ACC…
  4. Fuentes – VaTech

Friday, October 26, 2018

The Revenge Tour Continues: The MMQ and FMQ ROAST SPARTY!


FMQ:  Again, twice in a season, no MONDAY POST?  After one of the biggest wins of the season?
MMQ:  You know this Week is a Bye Week for Michigan, right?  I mean, even a good man needs a break. 
FMQ:  Seriously?  You’re blaming this on the Bye-Week?
MMQ:  I was getting ready for a big Expo on Monday and then I’ve been at said Expo all week. 
FMQ:  Sounds like excuses!  A man dedicated to his craft would have figured out a way to get this post done on SUNDAY!!!
MMQ:  We were both still hung over on Sunday.  You of all people should know that
FMQ:  Yeah, well that’s why I don’t post my stuff till Friday.  Anyway, what are you titling this entry?
MMQ:  The Revenge Tour Chapter 2:  LNU Is A No Class University
FMQ:  I guess the title kind of goes without saying…
MMQ:  I thought the days of “pettiness” and the LNU more or less being a classless group of individuals were behind us.  I thought their fans, after having some success on the gird-iron and the hardwood would start acting a little bit more like adults and less like the juvenile delinquents that I’ve known them to be all my life. 
FMQ:  One could THINK that. 
MMQ:  And you’d be WAY WRONG!!   Some Game Highlights:
And when it comes to no class, I’m not talking about the on-field pre-game incident, but we’ll get to that.
I’m talking about fans that were abusing Michigan fans.  I’m talking about the shenanigans that went on during the game. 
This game and this rivalry will never match what the domers and the suckeyes are to Michigan. 
Because we don’t respect you.  Because you don’t even respect yourselves.
But before I digress too far down the hate line, let’s look at Saturday’s on field results.  Patterson did what Patterson needed to do.  DPJ did what DPJ needed to do.  Higdon gained 144 yards on what was supposed to be the #1 S&P+ Rushing defense in the country.  Yep, that’s a beat-down that’s not even worth talking about.  This is a flashback Ufer revenge game.  LNU had nothing. 

FMQ:  So, Enough said on that?  But really, 21-7 isn’t really a slaughter
MMQ:  No wonder you’re such a shitty gambler.  Michigan had LNU almost 4-1 on total yards.  If Michigan doesn’t stall on the drive (and Nordin doesn’t miss the kick) and Michigan doesn’t fumble in the 3rd quarter, the score is 35-0.  Close to Michigan’s season average. 
FMQ:  Oh.  Well, yeah.  If you look at it like that.  Okay.  What about this “controversy”?
MMQ:  D’qweringha opened up the “controversy” by walking behind his players and smiling when Michigan players were “walked over” during the what LNU is now calling the “Stormtrooper March”.  The March was supposed to take place at 9:45. It didn’t happen for nearly 30 minutes after that. 
FMQ:  I agree with you.  I mean, how is a team and how are players supposed to go out and warm up properly for a noon game if they are being asked to stay off the field less than two hours prior to kick-off?
MMQ:  I’m thinking that LNU and D’tunafish came up with this stupid idea in order to shorten opponents warm up time and on field pre-game time.  There’s a reason you have a “plan” that let’s the visiting team know how things work and what end zone you get to warm-up in.  Woody Hayes famously tried to pull “The North End Zone” stunt during Bo’s first year.  Woody was approached by Bo and he said, “Woody – you’re on our side of the field.”  The suckeyes would famously have to march that day.  And an even more motivated Michigan team would be victorious.
Again, when I look at this stunt a huge part of me says, “Why?”  In a few hours, you’re going to be on the field looking to clobber each other.  It’s a bad tradition that needs to die if you can’t do it on time when you state you’re going to do it.  And the B1G agrees with me and FINED LNU to the tune of $10K!
FMQ:  Big Deal!  LNU will do the same thing next season at that rate!!!  
MMQ:  That's true...Should have been $100K.  
FMQ:  So, this victory over LNU was bad for them.  But how much or how bad?? 
MMQ:  History changing and program changing bad, according to this observer.  Too much happened and too much bad blood.  Recruits get turned off by “stuff” and LNU is dishing a lot of it on the social media boards.  And it really is a turn-off if you’re even semi-intelligent, which, well, you know which kids go to LNU now. 
FMQ:  The ones that are rejected from Michigan.  Mostly. So, did you see any good Social Media stuff? 
MMQ:  I did.  Check some of this stuff out.
 





The Rest of the Mess

CUD- Complete Unmitigated Disasters – There Were Several

MMQ:  THE SEX TOY UNIVERSITY – Not only was this a complete, unmitigated disaster, but it’s one of those losses (similar to the Suckeyes at Iowa last season) that the committee looks at and says, “Wow, of all the 1-loss teams out there, nobody got beat like THAT!”  THE STU will now have to answer for that loss at just about every discussion when it comes to the CFP.  I hate to say it, but Urban Liar’s health is probably trending down right now.  This LOSS WAS SO BAD –

FMQ:  I’ll bite!!!!  How bad was it???


MMQ:  It was so bad that it actually almost counts as two losses.  Think about it, THE STU will have the worst loss of any one loss teams and you could look at better 2-loss teams and still make a case that they lost closer games to better opponents (and are playing better football), ergo, keeping THE STU out of the discussion even if they manage to win out.  I think Urban Liar knows that.  Some of the fans seem to understand that as well and are stating it’s over.  But they’re basing that on the Eye Test.  And if the committee relies on the eye test… THE STU is done. 

FMQ:  Hey, can I take one of these CUD’s?   The Gophers The Flecker is really letting me down this season.  I’ve been taking the Gophers and the Flecker a lot this season and it seems like I should have been fading them once they got into B1G play.  You think the Flecker just doesn’t get it or what?

MMQ:  Not sure.  The flecker has recruited well but the defense just isn’t playing very well.  I mean the Cornsuckers were atrocious in Ann Arbor a month ago.  It’s hard to believe they’ve turned it that far around.  The Flecker needs a couple more wins to go bowling… 
NC State – Another team you should probably be fading, FMQ.

FMQ:  No shit.  I have NO IDEA why I’ve been so high on them.  But I’m way off that bandwagon at this point and I’m jumping on board that Clemson Tiger Tornado that’s going to rip through the rest of the ACC.   

Northwestern – The first team to trail Rutgers for the entire season.  Only winning by 3 points is not only bad it’s---  

FMQ:  I KNOW!!! Tell me about it!  Right when you THINK YOU KNOW A GUY!!!  Fitzy is pissing me off.  Now, I had them sort of possibly giving the domers a game in Evanston, but after that shit-show on Saturday, I can’t do it.  I just can’t. 

MMQ:  They are a better team in Evanston and remember – they beat Purdue in West Lafayette. 

FMQ:  You’re recall ability is what gets me in F-ing trouble on Fridays. 

MMQ:  I know.  It’s a curse.

Come Back Off The Ledge

Purdue – I know we’ve already talked about them, but I think they deserve a little more love don’t you think –

FMQ:  DON’T I THINK!!!  I’ve been following this team close and the Boilers are a GREAT OFFENSIVE team with a small defense problem – even though it didn’t look like that on Saturday night.  I think they can run the table…

MMQ:  Uhhhh, so you think they can beat LNU, Iowa, the Gophers, Wiscy and Indiana?  Everyone on that list in order?

FMQ:  Yep – that’s the way I’m betting the rest of the season.

MMQ:  Hmmmm.  Interesting… 

WISCY – Nice bounce-back win against the Illini.  Wiscy’s line played so well in the trouncing that all 5 offensive linemen earned “Best in the B1G” awards and graded out as the top offensive linemen of the week.  In the top 5 spots!  Amazing...

We Won But…We Should Be Worried Week  
    
PSU – Was in a game with Indiana and Indiana had a chance to win it at the end.  PSU is simply not playing good football right now.  They’ve got Iowa at home who’s playing GREAT Football and then you know who on the 3rd.

FMQ:  Oh, I know who!  I’ve been telling anyone who’ll listen that you simply don’t replace a Saquon Barkley with scheme.  He was only 35% of the production on offense, but he was probably responsible for at least 70% of ALL THE OFFENSE because you had to worry about him.  I see Iowa beating PSU and Michigan also taking them down in Ann Arbor.

MMQ:  I like your prognostication.  After 7 games, you are what you are.
Kentucky – Yeah, you beat Vandy, but come on.  EVERYONE beats Vandy and you didn’t cover. 

FMQ:  Tell me about it!  I still see the SEC East ending up Georgia – Florida – Kentucky in that order.  The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party should tell us a lot this weekend as to how the SEC East finishes.

MMQ:  Northwestern – Beat a BAD Rutgers team by 3 points in Jersey.  The Purple Kitties are the ONLY TEAM that’s trailed Rutgers this season!  Should be grounds for firing…

The 5 Stages of Slappy Fan Grief
  1. Denial and Isolation Suckeys….  .   
  2. ANGER –Laters – Suckeyes
  3. Bargaining –Suckeyes
  4. Depression –Suckeyes
  5.  Acceptance – Suckeyes

Idle Thoughts from Saturday – Will Return!

THE MMQ’s “I DON’T NEED A COMMITTEE!”

As Always  - A Look At the Conference situations and scenarios

SEC:  Bama – IN.  NEEDs A LOT of help:  LSU, Florida, Georgia.  Most likely representative:  Winner of the SEC Championship.  The World’s Largets Outdoor Cocktail Party is an Eliminator…

The B1G:  Michigan – IN.  NEEDs A LOT OF HELP:  THE Sex Toy U and IOWA-Maybe.  Wiscy and PSU are both out of the picture with Eliminator games.  THE STU may be the worst 1-loss team out there and for reasons stated above, there’s a scenario where even if THE STU wins out, they don’t get into the CFP.  There’s also a scenario (that I’m NOT buying) where Michigan could win out and NOT GET INTO THE CFP!  Then it would be time to go to war. 

ACC:  Clemson – IN.  The ACC is not good this season and Clemson cannot afford to lose.

The domers:  Still in but they’ve been winning ugly….

The Big iiX:  IN – NOBODY.  Needs a LOT OF HELP:  Texas & Oklahoma.  There’s projections that have Oklahoma in if they win out…

The Pac 12:  IN – Nobody.  Needs a lot of help:  Washington - Maybe.  This would require a LOT OF TEAMS TO START Losing multiple games.    

The Hot Seat

ZAPPED List
We’ll keep track of who’s gone as the season progresses….
  1. Durkin – Criminal charges pending.  Can’t fire a guy and make him look guiltier.
  2. Mike Jinks – Bowling Green.  I guess starting out 1-6 in the MAC gets you canned now…

Electric Chair of Death Seat!
  1. Ash – Rutgers:   I guess Rutgers is simply going to ride this train till the end of his contract.  I mean, who are they going to get?    

The Hot Seat

  1. Frost – Nebraska.  Until he wins a game, the seat’s warm
  2. Sumlin – Arizona.  What a disaster of a season…
  3. Malzhan – Losing to Tennessee is a fireable offense in Auburn

THE FMQ
Not a terrible week, but still on a downward trend.  The Purple Kitties REALLY HOSED ME and I should have gone with Purdue on the Parlay.  Still, that Purdue moneyline bet coming home was nice!


This week’s picks:
Indiana @ The Gophers (+2):  Oh boy…A Home Dog...  the Flecker desperately needs a win here.  He’s 0-fer right now in the B1G and this has become an Eliminator game of sorts with the loser of this game probably not making a bowl.  I just don’t know where the Gopher D has gone.…   
Take Indiana and lay the 2 for $20
Wiscy @ Northwestern (-3.5):  If you would have asked me to pick this game after Michigan FLATTENED Wiscy, I would have picked the Purple Kitties.  Now, I’m at a loss...  Wiscy looked like the Wiscy of old against the lowly Illini and have me thinking they still have some life left in them.  Were the Purple Kitties looking ahead to this game while in Jersey?  Who do I trust?
Take Wiscy and lay the 3.5 for $20
Purdue @ LNU (-2):  So, let me get this straight – Purdue CLOBBERS the 2nd best team in the country and somehow they’re an underdog in East Lansing?  I don’t even have to think about this one.  Brohm’s Boilers are going to roll!!!!
Take Purdue and the 2 for $20
Iowa @ PSU (-8.5):  Why is everyone so down on Iowa?  They don’t win flashy, but they win.   Yeah, there was a hick-up against Wiscy, but I like the Hawkeyes getting points here…
Take the Hawkeyes and the 8.5 for $20
Clemson @ FSU (+17):  This is a dumb spread.   I think FSU has been playing better football the last couple of games and everyone was calling this game a one score spread in the pre-season.  FSU might surprise Clemson in this one…
Take FSU and the 17 for $20
Florida @ Georgia (-6.5):  I know WHY they play this game at a neutral site – but it would be nice to see it in the swamp and between the hedges on occasion.   Florida has been playing well and beat the team that ROLLED Georgia.  I don’t know if the  A>B>C theory works here, but I’ll take 6.5 points.   
Take Florida and the 6.5 for $20
Domers @ Navy (+24):  Navy isn’t the same team it has been the last few years.  Still, 24 points in this rivalry is too much to pass up…
Take Navy and the 24 for $30
PARLAY!
3 Bet/Team Parlay:   6-1
Navy – Purdue - Iowa:  $50