Friday, November 11, 2011

11-11-11 Friday! ""YO"

Wow…Who would have ever thought we would be sitting here on a Friday going into a weekend where Joe Pa was (not trying to sound morbid here) still alive and NOT the coach at PSU? Not the MMQ….

However, I have to say that the board of trustees did the absolutely correct thing. And if you read my entry earlier in the week, Joe Pa could have done so much more to helping this cause. It’s getting easier to see now that Joe Pa had no clue, really, about the impact this type of situation has on the general public and how much bigger this was than PSU football. It is getting easier to see the entire enabling environment that was built around Joe Pa and PSU football. Then, when it mattered most, his age, clouded judgment, and bad advice from family and friends all played a role in the final decision to try to “retire” vs. standing up and doing the right thing. It took the board to stand up and do the right thing.

Even though the press is calling for it, I don’t think that PSU should forfeit the game this Saturday. There is a line, and that would be going over it. What PSU SHOULD DO, however, is take all the proceeds from this game (Television revenue, ticket sales, concessions, parking, etc) and donate it to the Victims of this tragedy, or announce and set up a special fund for the victims of child molesters. But my guess is that PSU is going to need to start filling their coffers for the countless lawsuits that are on the way, so fat chance of that happening.

Anyway, on to what we do here best on Friday Morning. And WHAT A FRIDAY IT IS!!!! 11-11-11, for anyone that’s into the number thing. Think the casinos are going to see a whole lot more “Yo Eleven!” bets today at the craps table? Probably!

I got a note the other day asking me why I don’t post my win-loss record. Let me explain:

Here’s my win loss record: Up $771 for the season after starting with a bankroll of $1,000.

To say that I “picked” any number of games correctly out of so many games played doesn’t mean much to me. I guess it would if I always bet the exact same amount on each game, but I don’t so it doesn’t. And I’ve taken a slightly different approach this year as to how I weigh my bets according to the spread. I’ll discuss that in each pick.

Corsnsuckers @ Not So Happy Valley (+3.5)
Okay – let’s think this one through….First, the FMQ shouldn’t be betting this game for financial gain. I guess in some ways, I feel it falls on the side of the line of being morally wrong…But, if I HAD to pick it, I would take PSU getting points at home. Joe Pa has been a figurehead far too long for his absence to truly mean much when it comes to the X’s and O’s. The emotions in that stadium will be on FULL TILT and I have a feeling the Cornsuckers are going to have to score early and often to take the crowd out of it…
Take PSU and the 3.5 for the Victims of Sandusky….

Michigan @ Illinois (Open: +3 Today: Even or -1 on 5
Okay, back to what I alluded to earlier. When I looked at this game early, I hadn’t seen the spread and figured that Michigan would be giving either 3.5 or 6.5, just for an opening figure. The spread opened with Michigan giving 3 and has moved 4 points with the Illini giving one. So, originally, my “value” play on the posted handicap was 3 to 3.5 points and has now moved to 7 to 7.5 points. That means I should bet Michigan. But how much? I have been using a ratio of my handicap to the delta handicap to gauge what my bet should be and this is has become a factor of 2. If my units are $50, then
Take Michigan and the 1 for $100

MSU @ Iowa (+3)
Here’s another game that I figured MSU would probably be giving 3 or it might be a “pick em” match up, but I was leaning towards Iowa after they beat Michigan at Home and MSU struggled with a much improved Gopher team last week. Sparty has been so-so against the spread this year (5-4) and they never seem to play well at Kinnick. Ferentz is on his annual “Don’t fire him, he’s not such a bad coach” campaign to end the season in the Outback Bowl.
Take Iowa and the 3 for $70

The Ducks @ Mr. Lucky’s House of Pain
In order to bet Mr. Lucky and handicap Mr. Lucky, you kind of need to go off the chart. I honestly don’t think the Ducks are as good as advertised this year (as long as you can contain them in the 3rd quarter) and I do think Mr. Lucky is destined to do something that’s never been done before at Stanford. I figure the spread would be Mr. Lucky giving 6.5, but he’s only got to cover 3. Therefore, figuring in the “factor” of 2, let’s
Take Mr. Lucky and lay the 3 for $100
(Yes, this should be the week I quit him, but I just can’t….)

Gophers (+27.5) @ Wiscy
I figured the Gophers would get 14 to 20.5 and they are getting 27.5. The factor is a little tougher here with larger spreads, and this is where some of the odd ball numbers I bet comes from. I don’t want to bet only my base unit ($50), but I don’t want to be a full double unit, either. Figuring the ratio of between 36% and 50% of an additional unit, which is the difference of my spread vs. the actual divided by my spread, ($15 to $25)
Take the Gophers and the 27.5 for $70

TCU (+15.5) @ Boy’s State
By the way, did anyone know that Miami and Florida State are playing Saturday? Remember how big that game used to be? Anyway, TCU has played Boy’s State tough over the last 5 seasons and this has become somewhat of a rivalry game. I figured at most a touchdown (6) plus 0.5 in this one (for TCU) or maybe 9.5. I think the 15.5 might be a gift….
Take TCU and the 15.5 for $80


3 Way: 6-1

I really like Michigan – Stanford - Gophers for $40

4 Way: 10-1

Add TCU to the mix….for $30

Starting Bank: $1,771
Total Bet: $490
Bank: $1,281

Enjoying the Ride....MMQ

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