Friday, September 9, 2011

FMQ - A Day To Remember

There were many (if not all reading this) of us that did not witness the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor on December 7th, 1941. However, I think we’ve all spoken with an older friend or relative that was alive at the time that shared with you the fear and unbelievable grief that was felt across America when the event took place. Not only that, but there was uncertainty for the future.

I can tell you that on that fateful Tuesday morning 10 years ago, I had the same sense of confusion, disbelief and fear that everyone else had as we witnessed the events unfold on TV. My oldest was sick and I had stayed home with her after taking my youngest to daycare. I remember thinking what a perfect, sunny fall morning it was as I looked out on the lake. And then the Today show interrupted their normal programming and started showing the WTC. And the Pentagon. And some field in the middle of Pennsylvania.

Confusion, Disbelief, Fear.

Those were the feelings. Calling people. Are you watching this? What’s going on? The 2nd plane. Clips of people leaping from the Towers. I actually went upstairs and made sure the guns were in working order. How twisted is that?

Later in the evening, fear was replaced by uncertainty and anger, which I’m sure we all went through. And I realized that no matter how many free “good” choices we make and as much risk management that we try to exercise in our lives, sometimes there’s the fickle hand of fate that’s sitting there waiting to slap you silly.

But, Life goes on. Enjoy the ride…

And on to the picks!

Last week, weather kept us from having what would have been a neutral week. Or we wouldn't be down the c-note were down right now. However, no matter as this week’s picks are looking good! Someone did ask me how do I “Jump on it early?” Well, with my little note pad on my desk, I write down about 7 games that look good to me on Monday morning. And after looking at them for an hour or so, I will circle teams where I really like the spread. Others I just kind of wait and see what happens to the movement. So, when I saw Michigan getting 3.5 at home at night, I thought it was a gift. I jumped on in it, but for less than I might normally after the spread has defined itself. The spread has moved down with money coming in on Michigan to 3 points. (I saw 2.5 on one site.) So, it looks like smart money or volume is on Michigan.

Michigan +3.5 vs. DOMERS
Michigan getting points at home in a night game with the Domers in the middle of a QB controversy and their backs against the wall. Methinks that Hoke will have everyone’s ears pinned back, a little extra air in the helmets, and pads strapped on a little tighter for this one. Michigan has nothing to lose and the Domers are staring into the abyss once again.
Take Michigan and the +3.5 for $40

Stanford (-18.5) at Duke
Really? When I saw this game on the schedule for Stanford, I figured it was between a 21 – 24 point play. I saw the opening and -18.5 and immediately liked it and jumped on it. The line has move up over -20 and I feel like I’m sitting pretty good.
Take Stanford and the -18.5 for $60

Nebraska -28 vs. Fresno State
This one is tough. Fresno is really bad, maybe worse than Chattanooga. So why only 28? I have to do something I hate doing with a team that just hosed me the week before, but
Take Nebraska and lay the -28 for $40

Alabama @ PSU (+9.5)
Alabama does have the best defense, I don’t think there’s any question. Yeah, it’s in Happy Valley. But that’s not enough points for me to take this home dawg… I think Bama covers this in the 1st half and wins pulling away.
Take Satan’s Warrior’s and lay -9.5 for $60

tOhio (-19) vs. Toledo
They crapped on Akron big. My guess is they get ugly all over a decent MAC team.
Take tOhio and lay -19.5 for $40.

3 team: 6 to 1
4 team: 10-1

Three picks out of this mess is tough, especially after last week’s miss. But I like Stanford, Alabama and if I have to pick the best of the other three games, I will go with Ohio for $20.

Do a 4 team and add Michigan to that threesome for $20.

Starting BANK: $904
NEW BANK: $624

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