Thursday, October 4, 2012

B1G Season Kick-Off Friday!

Before we get to this week’s picks, a little more jabbing and picking at the wound that the Domers inflicted on Michigan and themselves: I’m SURE that NBC just LOVES the fact that $warbuck$ dumped the Michigan game. For a team that has been averaging a 2.1 to 2.4 rating for its games televised on NBC for the last several years (which represents about 3 to 3.5 million viewers), the Michigan - Domers game captured a 4.1 rating, which represents about 7 million viewers. It was by far the most viewed game of the day and is second to only Michigan-Alabama this year as the most watched game. Not only that, but click the LINK for the details that show that this was THE MOST WATCHED PRIME TIME Notre Dame game EVER on NBC, even beating the past USC-Domer match-ups.

Yeah…I’m sure there’s several NBC executives just drooling over a Domer-Duke or Domer-Syracuse September matchup in the coming years instead of Michigan. Yeah…I’m sure of that. (A Nielsen rating point is said to be worth $100,000 - $150,000 more for a 30 second prime time advertising spot. So, figure however many commercials are in a college football game in minutes and multiply that by $600 G’s….) In fact, if I was a betting man, I’ll bet that someone called $warbuck$ and said, “HEY, GREAT MOVE (Dumb Ass)! You really know what you’re doing there! (Dumb Ass, dumb ass, dumb ass….)” The MMQ added that parenthesis for unspoken emphasis. The FMQ is much more objective and less offensive in the satirical nature and wording of his posts than the MMQ. The MMQ calls it like he sees it….

$warbucks$ = Idiot…..I only hope Brandon finds a more suitable and worthy opponent to replace these clowns with….

One more little thing: If I’m an Okie State fan, I’m really pissed after I see this video. It’s the best video I’ve seen. Why doesn’t the replay booth see this? Why?

Anyway, I’m in a quandary this week, which is perhaps the reason I’m stalling so much. I’m a little leery of every early pick I made at this point, with the exception of taking Miami and the points. The lined opened at 14 and has moved considerably. 1.5 points represents significant steam coming in on the Miami side. So, I too will stay with the wise guys and get the best price I can for that game. For the other two games, I’m going to go heart and head.

This Week’s Picks:

Miami (+13) vs. Domers: Make all your convicts vs. catholics jokes now. Good vs. Evil…Except this fan thinks it’s the other way around when it comes to the good vs. evil thing with these two teams….I would have had an additional point here I had jumped early, but I like the points I’m getting anyway. In fact, I’m going with this as the upset of the week. I wish there was a money line (odds wager) in college as I would take it. For anyone not familiar with the term, the NFL has a money line. If you like the “dog” you can take that team and get 5-1 odds for example, and for $100 you would win $500. IF you are wondering why this is the upset special, see the Michigan pick below to understand how lucky the Domers were to win the Michigan game. They should be 3-1 looking to re-group this week.
Take Miami and the 13 points for $75
Arkansas (+10) @ Auburn: This line hasn’t moved much, but it’s moving in Arkansas’ favor (some sports books have it a +9.5) meaning that this is still the SEC and it’s still a decent Arkansas team…But it’s coached by a guy that can’t find his way out of a paper bag right now and with everything else going on in his personal life, his focus can’t be all that great, either. Yes, the assistants should be kicking ass, but it still takes a leader. As much as I want to take Arkansas and the points here…The John L Smith specter of a doomed season looms large. Therefore…PASS

Sparty (-14) @ IU: Sparty bounces back hard here after getting their offense fixed. Look for Leveon to have a big day on the ground. IU was literally embarrassed last week by a very bad Iowa team. I was frankly thinking this was more of a 20 or so point spread, so I think there’s a lot of value here.
Take Sparty and lay the 14 for $60

LSU (-2.5) @ Gatorland: Is Florida GATORLAND again or is it just Florida in nicer formations? Yes, Florida is undefeated in SEC play. That’s against the Cremesicles and Kentucky. LSU has played down to their competition, but then again, when HAVEN’T they played down to their competition? I want to take LMU so bad here it hurts….But I just can’t seem to find enough reason to pull the trigger….PASS
Michigan (-3) @ Purdon’t: There were EXACTLY 23 – count ‘em, 23 – missed assignments on the offensive side of the ball against the Domers in the last game Michigan played. (Again, check Mgoblog’s entry on Thursday). That came directly from Taylor Lewan and he mentions that normally that number, missed assignments, is in the single digits. If Michigan can fix that (and they have had two weeks to work on it) my guess is Michigan walks all over Purdon’t…If they haven’t, well, this one blows up in my face.
Take Michigan and lay the 3 for $50.


3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
UM – SPARTY - MIAMI for $30

Starting Bank: $750
Total Bet: $215
Bank: $535

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