Friday, September 28, 2012

Michigan Gets a Bye...But the FMQ GOES ON!

Okay. After doing a deep dive review into my spreadsheet from the past couple of seasons and looking at some of the winning weeks vs. losing weeks, the mistake I made this year has been over betting. And I don’t mean the amounts of the wagers, but I have bet on way too many different games, thinking that spreading my risk over multiple games was a solution that was working better.

When in actuality, once the data is compiled, its exactly the opposite of what we should be doing. It took some analysis, but suffice it to say, any time we wagered on only three games (OR 75% of our betting units were focused on three games) we came out ahead for the week. To prove that theory, I’m only going to focus on three games this week and see how this goes.

This Week’s Picks:

Northwestern (-13.5) vs. Indiana: Normally, I would take points here. But the Kitty Kats have really been coming to play and Indiana is just plain awful. I’m taking the sideways Z and laying the points.
Take Northwerstern and lay the 13.5 for $60

Wiscy (+14) @ Nebraska: Okay, Wiscy sucks and there’s a lot of problems on this team. But I don’t think they lose by more than 14 to Nebraska. This is the scariest bet I’m making this week, and I’m taking points.
Take Wiscy and the 14 for $40

Oregon (-28) @ Wazoo: I made the mistake of doubting the Duckies last week. The FMQ NEVER makes the same mistake twice.

Take Oregon and lay the 28 for $60.


3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
NWU – WISCY - DUCKS for $10

Starting Bank: $730
Total Bet: $170
Bank: $560

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