Friday, October 14, 2011

FMQ - Heading Over The Hump

Here we are at Hump Day Saturday! Nooooo….not THAT kind of Hump Day…Get your mind off the Hot Seat Mascots!!! October 15th will mark the half way point of the college football season, not counting championship games. That means the bookies have at least 5 and in some cases 6 games of stats to start computing spreads with. This is where as a bettor, I think it’s wiser to look at rivalries and games you know or have some perspective on vs. just looking at the stats. In addition, the psyche of the two teams needs to at least be evaluated and you need to figure out who’s playing with swagger and who isn’t. And that’s why I believe it’s a little easier to handicap the collegiate game vs. the pros. Anyway, it’s tough to be a winner at the end of the day, which is why we’re doing it for fun!

It’s scary, almost, when you have a really good week. As a bettor, you understand that the laws of probability are just that, LAWS. Meaning that if you are having a worse than expected result over a certain period where you are expecting a 50-50 outcome, than at some point in time, regression to the mean must occur and the results have to even out. Which also means that if you’re on the up side, well, you’re inevitably due for something bad to happen.

It’s the law, after all.

So, after last week’s pretty good showing, the ole FMQ bank account is sitting fat and happy and half way to our goal of doubling our money for the season. And just when you “think” you know what’s going on, the Fickle Finger of Fate will more than likely jump up and bite you on the ass. So, let’s be extra careful this week looking at who we bet and for how much. Our little calculator on the sheet says I can wager just under $400. Which got me to thinking I should only bet my three strongest horses…But that’s when you can get in trouble…So I’m sticking with 5 games.

Michigan (OPEN: +3 Today: +1.5) @ Sparty
So, Michigan is still getting points today but the money is obviously pouring in on The Maize and Blue (aka Big Brother - see photo above). A 1.5 point move must be respected. My neutral bet is $60 and that’s what I put on Michigan on Monday when I jumped on them. Please see the earlier note on regression to the mean and the law of averages and also note that Michigan is the historic victor in this series by a wide margin of victory 70% of the time, which, based on 100 trials it pretty good evidence of a trend.…Not to mention that those wide margins of victory usually come when the point spread is very close. But, both teams are coming in with confidence (Sparty’s road disaster in South Bend was completely erased by the victory in Columbus). I just think Sparty will be WEEEEEEE bit more on edge trying to pull off the unthinkable which is beating Michigan 4 times in a row…And Little Brothers simply DON'T do that To Big Brothers...
Take Michigan and the 3 for $60

Alabama @ Mississippi (+23.5 Open TODAY: +25.5)
The Alabama bettors have moved this line, too, but I don’t think it’s moved enough quite yet. I said I would jump on Alabama early only giving 23.5 as I thought it was a gift. Nothing has changed. Satan wants to keep the BCS voters happy, and that defense may shut out Ole Miss.
Take Alabama and lay the 23.5 for $60

Stanford @ Washington State (+20.5 Open Today: +21)
I loved this line on Monday and said this will be my big bet of the week. When I double checked this line this morning, my very first thought was, “?????????”. Which is, “Whaaaa the F@#$%”. I can’t figure out if I’m the only guy that has seen that Mr. Lucky and the Cardinal are 6-0 ATS and they have more or less averaged a TD and a half better than the number since the beginning of the year. In fact, it hasn’t even been close. I’ll go a little heavier on Mr. Lucky as I trust him and don’t believe in the up and coming Wazoo’s at all at this point….
Take Stanford and lay the 20.5 for $100

Indiana (+39.5) @ Wiscy
This is one of those games where you could look like a complete idiot either way you bet it. I have a feeling that Indiana can’t stop Wiscy and that Wiscy is going to HAMMER IU on defense. Wiscy’s second string might hang 50 on this team….I don’t like it, but
I’ll take Wiscy and lay the 39.5 points for $40

LSU @ Tennessee (+17)
I looked hard at this game Monday and then I remembered that Tennessee almost upset LMU last year at LMU. My guess is that The Mad Hatter pulls that game film out and reminds those guys that you can never let up in the SEC. Sorry Orange Pants Dooley, but LMU is making statements. And you’re just another victim on that road.
Take LSU and lay the 17 for $80


I’m starting to like the parlay and I like pressing my bet with them for the additional reward….I think we’ll even do a little bonus and try a 5 team this week…

3 team: 6 to 1
4 Team: 10 to 1
5 Team: 20 to 1

Three Team (Don’t mess with a good thing): Michigan – Stanford – Alabama - $40

Four Team (Same idea – without EMU): LSU – Michigan - Stanford – Alabama - $20

All of them: $15

Starting BANK: $1,569
NEW BANK: $1,154

Enjoying the Ride…MMQ

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