Friday, September 17, 2010

FMQ – UMass Friday and Some Corrections

For those of you that have been paying attention, yes, there were mistakes in the earlier entries where I was only recording the win of the bet but not including the original bet in my total. I finally updated my spreadsheet that I created for this season and it obvioulsy caught the error. I apologize for that and I have gone back and corrected all the entries to reflect the correct amounts and banks for the last two weeks. That being said, we’re currently sitting on $981.50 for two weeks effort. I know, not good, not bad, just sort of treading water. Let’s budget $281.50 for this week and see how we do. Still not confident of where everyone's at two weeks in...Sure glad I laid off that FSU-Oklahoma game. Listening to the talking heads on the boob-tube was starting to convince me that FSU was going to go in and score repeatedly against the Laters, and I liked the Laters in that game. Moral: Don't listen to talking heads...

Taking points last weekend didn’t help us much. So, this week, we may need to look for and find the best opportunities either getting or laying points. One game popped out at me immediately, as it did to some other players who e-mailed, but after the analysis, I’m not sure I want to touch this one:

Tennessee +14 at Home vs. Florida: Wow. Florida is a mess. Their best offensive player just got booted…And Vegas still thinks Florida is a 14 point favorite….I simply can’t touch this one, even getting 14 at home, after watching the Vols literally choke, trip, and wheeze their way through the 3rd and 4th quarters last week against Oregon….NO BET

But, I have found 5 games that I like….While we aren’t going to put as much steam on some of the games, I like the others....So the risk management is to get as much against ACC teams as possible, followed by everything else.

Domers at MSU (-3): When I first looked this spread up Monday, I mistakenly thought that MSU was GETTING POINTS AT HOME. My bad. Sparty is giving 3 to the Domers who may or may not have Crist at the helm at Game Time. He in fact did suffer a concussion in the Michigan game and my guess is he will be a little tentative against Sparty. Sparty has kept their Offense under wraps…There is absolutely no LOVE between Dantonio and Kelly…The weather should be decent, the crowd should be Drun – er, fired up and LOUD. Look for Sparty to make up for last year’s oops in South Bend and the Domers to be flat after the emotional loss to Michigan. Take MSU and lay the 3 for $40

ASU at Wisconsin (-13.5):
ASU doesn’t have a defense. Wisconsin has been pounding the ball on the ground. And Wisky has a D to go with that offense. I like Wisconsin at home in a middle of the road Pac 10 beat down. Take Wisconsin and lay the 13.5 for $60

Harbaugh’s Hellcats (-17) vs. Wake Up: Based on the latest performances out of the ACC, I’m looking to take the other side of whatever bets I can get on teams from that conference when they’re playing good competition away from home. Wake is not known for its defense, Harbaugh and Stanford just shut out UCLA and routed the Bruins 35 to nothing. Wake is traveling 3,000 miles to play a good football team…and Wake is in the ACC. I’ll take Stanford and lay the 17 against Wake Forest for $70.

Clemson at Auburn (-7): See how I’m focusing on the ACC at this point? 8:00 PM. Game, in Auburn. Does anyone think Clemson, besides the Clemson faithful, has a shot at winning, much less keeping this to single digits? I’ll take Auburn and lay the 7 for $70.

UMass at Michigan (-21): I grabbed Michigan and laid 21 early on Monday as I figured the line would shoot up. It did. Most of the other sites had the line up to 30 or 32 on Wednesday and it’s back down to 28.5 today. So the steam is heavy on Michigan with some doubters/value takers on UMass late. UMass is ranked 14th in the DII category and beat W&M when they were ranked 4th in mild upset...But Michigan absolutely crushed Deleware State last year. Look for Rich Rod to play Devin, Tate, and anyone else with fresh legs in this contest that could be difficult to stop….So, I’m taking Michigan and laying 21 against UMass for $20….Even though Michigan probably covers by halftime and I should be betting the house here...

Huh – looks like I’m laying points in all games again…..
Parlays (Otherwise known as Sucker Bets):

3 Team parlay of Wisconsin, Auburn and Stanford for $15. That pays 6 to 1 if it hits and we’ll pocket $81.

Let’s do a 5 way parlay, too, even though we haven’t even come close yet to winning all our games, but I have a good feeling this week for some weird reason. Take all 5 for the balance of $6.50. That’ll pay 20-1 if it comes home and will pay $117.

BEST BETS: Auburn/Cheeseheads/Stanford

Wagers: $281.5

Bank: $700

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