Friday, September 20, 2013

Ho-Hum Weekend Might Hold a LOT of Value

I was looking at spreads on Monday and it hit me that this weekend is really lacking in any big, marquee games.  Conference play has begun, but the big boys aren’t squaring off with each other yet and some other big teams are playing out of conference opponents. 

When I was looking at the spreads, I saw some value in a couple of plays and I think we’ve got some opportunities to make a little more money this week….As long as we balance things out correctly!
Sparty (+7.5) @ domers:  I was not going to touch this game and then I started thinking about what usually happens down in domerland when sparty visits.  Not in the recent past mind you, but there was a time when sparty owned that field.  With sparty’s defense and an awakening of their offense, I see some value with sparty getting a TD and a teaser…The test will be whether or not sparty’s D is for real against a domer Offense that can actually move the ball….And I will also predict that this might be the first OT game of the season.
Take Sparty and the points for $75

KSU (+4.5) @ Texas:  Nothing can fix the Longhorns at this point and everyone sees and smells blood in the water.  Mack Brown seems like a confused retiree trying to figure out how his I-Phone works - and he's looking for help anywhere he can find it.  I’m not as confident in this pick, but I definitely can see a team that’s not confident when they take the field – and that team wears orange…. 
Take KSU and the points for $40
Cremesicles (+17.5) @ Gatorland:  This used to be a big game…wha’ happn’d?  The cremesicles suck and Gatorland already has an ACC blemish on their record.  Is there some value in the 17.5 that the Vols are getting in what used to be a rivalry match-up and one that Butch Jones has probably had circled on the calendar???  Maybe…
Take Tennessee and the 17.5 for $30
CSU (+39.5) @ Bama:  I am so tempted to take Bama with a hangover and the fact that the former d-coordinator for Saban is the head coach at CSU….But I just can’t pull that trigger.  But I don’t like laying 39.5 on Bama, either….PASS
Maine @ Northwestern (-28):  I think the purple kittens just might open big can of wallop on Maine this weekend…..
Take Northwestern and lay the 28 for $60
Akron (+8) at Louisiana Rajun Cajuns:  When I saw this game and spread, I wanted to believe that Akron getting points was a HUGE value pick after what they did in the Big House…
Take Akron and the 8 for $30
Stanford (-7.5) @ ASU:  Okay, ASU just got really lucky to win that game against Wiscy.  My guess is they are going to be a little hung over.  Stanford has quietly covered all their games so far this year.  I’m ready to get back on the Cardinal bandwagon.
Take Stanford and lay the 7.5 for $60
Michigan (-17.5) @ UConn:  So, let’s see.  Michigan coming off a nearly humiliating experience.  Reports are that they practiced in pads on Sunday and Tuesday was hard hitting and a good practice.  Gardener has reviewed and stated that he’s “learned something from each and every INT he’s thrown this year.”  Everyone seems healthy and UConn hasn’t won a game….I see value in taking Michigan to cover here.
Take Michigan and lay the points for $60

Sparty – Northwestern - Stanford for $30

Starting Bank:           $1,298
Total Bet:                   $385
BANK:                        $913

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