Friday, September 27, 2013

APU Thoughts and We're in Full Conference Swing

Tuesday Follow-Up:  I posted Tuesday about the NCAA reducing the penalty at PSU a mere 14 months after the famous Emmert speech where he stated that “There will be NO reduction in the penalties and if there had been a Death Penalty, I would have exercised it.”  I was part of the outcry then.  Now, US Senator George Mitchell jumped into the fray after reviewing the ongoing restructuring and management at PSU and told the NCAA, “Look:  PSU is doing a great job managing this issue internally and via the legal system.  You need to review the penalty that you handed down and do what’s best.”  I think Emmert, like any of us, would take a Senator’s counsel seriously and “do what’s best.”  However, I will never agree with the Group Think and the dangerous gut reaction to this issue that led the NCAA down the path they went in the first place.  Public outcry and the Torch and Pitchfork mentality is the reason you need SOUND LEADERSHIP and a voice of reason in these situations.  Emmert could have been that guy, but instead piled on the bandwagon and simply wanted to erase football at PSU in a demonstration of power. 

Wrong move Mark Emmert….
Another potential land mine that universities and the NCAA alike are going to need to deal with sooner rather than later is the APU “All Players United” movement.  Players are finally getting their act together and realizing that the product they are responsible for putting on the field, albeit through the organization, branding, and effort of the parent institutions that they are playing for, is worth more to the players because the resulting product is worth a LOT more to the institutions than it’s EVER BEEN in the history of collegiate athletics.  A little quick research revealed that the athletic budget for the University of Michigan in 1975 was less than $4,000,000.  That’s not a typo….$4 million.  In 2000, Michigan’s AD budget was $35,000,000.  Today, Michigan’s 2013 Athletic Budget is $133,000,000, a 4X increase from 13 years ago.  (The BTN alone gives each B1G conference member an annual cash in-flow of $25M and growing)   I’m not saying that student athletes, for the most part, aren’t receiving just reward (education, health care, room & board, etc.) while playing for a university in any sport, and that cost annually at Michigan is somewhere between $75K-$100K for each athlete that’s on scholarship.  I’m saying that the amount of money involved for the Big 6 Power Conferences has never been greater on a relative basis (money per student athlete), and it doesn’t look like that curve is about to tip in the downward direction.  But, instead of coming out and acknowledging that fact, what do a collective of D1 Athletic Directors do instead?  They comeout in unified voice that Pay for Play is not only wrong, but it will NEVER bepart of what is otherwise a highly managed system of integrity…..for the student athletes, of course…by the Universities. 
WRONG MOVE University AD’s!
The statement, if you read it in its entirety, reeks of attitude and can only be described as incredibly self-serving.  Translated:  “Student Athletes:  Knock this crap off right now or we’ll show you!”  I only wonder how long it will take the student athlete collective that generates the income for these institutions (Football/Basketball) to figure this all out and decide that for their future and the future of their kids that may one day become collegiate athletes, “Today we’ll just sit on the field in front of 100K fans and on national TV for 3 or so hours.  We’re not gonna do much…Just sit.  We are going to watch you watching us.  And we are not going to play this game today because while we are benefitting from the education we receive, we are making a whole lot more money for the Universities and we are not seeing a dime of that while we physically take all the career ending risk and at times life threatening risk…And we don’t believe that’s ‘Fair’.”
If there isn’t a public outcry at that point….Well, let’s just say that there WILL be an outcry (That the MMQ will support) and AD’s, presidents and regents across the country will react and this problem will get solved in some way, shape and form once and for all.  Whether its pay for play, additional monthly stipends, accrued deposits that can be collected post graduation, some or all of the above or WHATEVER, the matter will get resolved.
The first 3rd of the season is in the books for most teams out there with the exception of some teams that had early byes.  I’m not going to hand out quarter term grades, just glad that some of the harder to watch games are behind us and we are now into the “Elimination” phase of the contenders.
I’ve postulated before that only about 20 teams have a shot at the NC and of those 20, there’s probably only about 10 that have a real chance.  And for 2 of those 10, well, you know how this goes.  The planets have to align and magic has to happen in order to find yourself as one of the last “Highlanders” left in the end…As we all know, there can be only one.
That being said, let’s look at this week’s match-ups!  Again, I like too many games and I’m spreading myself thin…I could/should just load up on the best bets, but I’m leery of those…So, spread it around.
Cal Bears @ Oregon (-36):  Normally, I loath laying this many points…But it’s the Quack Attack and they have not disappointed yet this year against the number. Even though this is a conference opponent that usually plays the Ducks close, who am I to argue with success?
Take the Ducks and lay the 36 for $60

Sanford (-10) @ WSU:  Look – WE ALL KNOW THAT MIKE LEACH CAN COACH.  But one win doesn’t a season make and Stanford is the real deal.  My guess is that Leach still doesn’t have the right personnel on the field to slow down the Cardinal….But it’ll be close.  Even so, I’m happy going with the Trees here and laying the points….
Take Stanford and lay the 10 for $60
Wiscy (+8) @ ohio:  Hmmm…do you realize that the last 2 years this game has been decided in either OT or in the final seconds?  And did you ALSO know that Wiscy was AHEAD of ohio in both of those instances?  Just asking….Do you think Wiscy is really TICKED OFF about that and they want to beat ohio?  Yeah….Me too…
Take Wiscy and the 8 for $60
Oklahoma (-3.5) @ the domers:  When I first saw this spread, I was a little surprised….A little.  I figure it would be more of a pick-em number with the Laters coming into South Bend looking for revenge.  In fact, I recalled that Gholson was the difference in the game last year in Norman…And he’s not on the team this year.  IF the Laters want to re-establish who’s the boss in the Big 12, it should start with this out of conference foe, just to get things rolling in the right direction.
Take Oklahoma and lay the 3.5 for $40
Ole Miss (+17) @ Bama:  I really think Bama’s Achilles Heel this year is their defense.  And we saw some of that when A&M lit them up for 40+.  Now, I believe that Ole Miss has a bettr defense than A&M and that might be the difference. 
Take Ole Miss and the 17 for $40
LSU (+3) @ Georgia:  Georgia is the Michigan of the SEC this year.  Playing down to opponents and the Texas Mean Green was in the game in the middle of the 4th quarter.  With LSU having a passing game and a defense, well, the Hatter might just run the table in the SEC.  And it’ll have to start in Georgia where he’s getting 3…
Take LSU and the 3 for $40
Okie Sate (-19) @ WVU:  WVU didn’t score ANY points last week against MARYLAND…Let that sink in for a minute.  This is the same West Virginia, well not exactly the same as Geno Smith has left, but the same coaching staff that was rolling up 50-60 points on opponents last year.  Getting blanked while giving up 37 makes me think that Okie State can do the same thing….

Take Okie State and lay the 19 for $40
Ducks – Cardinal – Wiscy - $10

Starting Bank:           $1,2,83.50
Total Bet:                   $330
BANK:                        $953.50

No comments: