Thursday, August 30, 2018

The FMQ Week #1 - And We're Off!


Ten Bold Predictions For The Upcoming Season
Just ‘cause everyone else is doing one, I’m going to do my own “10 Bold Predictions for the 2018 College Football Season!”  These are bold because nobody else is giving any of these scenarios or upsets a chance of happening.
1.    New Coach Predictions:  Nebraska will beat a top 15 team.  Scott Frost will find a way to beat one of the teams on the Cornhusker schedule that will be ranked in the top 10.  Texas A&M does the same thing.  Jimbo Fisher finds a way to beat somebody he’s not supposed to in 2018.
2.    LNU will not reach double digit wins this season!  LNU won a lot of close games last season and were “weather gifted” in two games (PSU & Michigan) that they should have lost.  Look out for the Opening Game opponent!
3.    Tennessee will win multiple games this year in the SEC.  I know, multiple could mean “2”, but they will win more than 1.  Bonus:  Pruitt may actually find a way to get the Vols to a Bowl game!
4.    Two teams from 1 conference will once again play in the CFP.  But those two teams won’t be from the SEC.  Strength of schedule will finally matter this year to the committee.
5.    Clemson will lose one regular season game.  I know, they’ve done that every season, so not a hard prediction to come true, but still, I’m putting it in writing!
6.    Arizona and new HC Kevin Sumlin will win double digit games in the regular season!   Sumlin inherited QB Khalil Tate who closely resembles Manziel.  And we know what Sumlin did with Johnny Money…When I was perusing schedules over the weekend, I looked at Arizona’s and saw that they have everyone “tough” at home (USC, Oregon and Arizona State).  Their most difficult road game is at Utah.
7.    LSU could be the “surprise” team in the SEC West!  LSU has Bama and cross over Georgia at HOME… That’s a big deal, especially playing in Baton Rouge.  If LSU can slip by Miami in the first game, the showdown at Auburn on September 15th is set up.  Win that one and everyone is talking about LSU.
8.    One of the AP pre-season Top 5 Teams will not be in the Top 10 at the end of the regular season.  Bama, Clemson, Georgia, Wiscy, & THE STU.  One of these guys is screwed.   I think someone gets surprised that is a potential “contender” in the CFP discussion.  Bama has a weak secondary and Petrino isn’t afraid to chuck it around.  While it might not happen this weekend, a pre-season Top 5 team will slide out of the top 10 before season’s end.  
9.    The Best Team from the Big iiX will have 2-losses.   And that team will be eliminated from the CFP because of those 2 losses.  The final loss happening in the Big iiX Championship Game, forcing the elimination.
10. A Team from the B1G East will Win the B1G Championship.  I know, this isn’t much of a prediction, either, but I have a feeling that team will be playing a 1-loss Wiscy team.  And the two teams playing for the B1G Title will have met earlier in the season.
THE FMQ
Now that I’ve been the FMQ for multiple seasons, I ‘ve learned a couple of things: 
1.     As always, the FMQ seems to do better early in the season (when the lines are screwy) and then when Vegas finally gets some stats to look at, they get a little more tuned in.
2.    I used to think “Focus on 2 or 3 teams”.  It hasn’t worked out…With the exception of Stanford and Mr. Lucky in the season Stanford went 11-1 ATS!!! 
3.    The opening week spreads are some of the strangest you’ll see and there’s gifts on the board.
4.    It’s time to GET BOLD Early and try to make some dough!
A refresher:  We start the season out with $1,000 and hope to be on the winning side at the end of the season!  Simple enough! 
On to this week’s picks:
New Mexico State @ The Gophers (-21 O/U:  45): Strange spread (I think should be more?)  I know NMSU just got CREAMED by Wyoming.  But, they now have 1 game under their belt.  The Gophers are going to be in “First Game of the Season Mode” this week.  NMSU on a short week.  But I guess the Gophers get a game of film to look at.  Still, first games and large spreads make me nervous.
Take the Gophers and lay the 21 for $25
Take the OVER for $25
Northwestern @ Purdue (-3.5 O/U 51):  Again, scratching my head.  Everyone has the purple kitties finishing ABOVE Purdue in the West.  So why aren’t the purple kitties laying points in this game?  Road factor?  Purdue isn’t going to sneak up on anyone, still, I like a small home favorite especially in the first game of the season.   
Take the Boilers and lay the 3.5 for $25
Take the OVER for $25
Utah State @ LNU (-27 O/U: 51 MONEYLINE:  $1,400):  Hmmmm.  Strange line, indeed.  I don’t know who is making this line, but Friday night before Labor Day hasn’t exactly been LNU’s night in past seasons.  And this Utah State Aggy bunch is returning all 5 O-Linemen and their QB.  This team was beating Wiscy at the half last season until Wiscy started doing Wiscy things.  Add a plethora of receivers and a top NFL pick at tight end and you have the makings of an upset… I personally think history rhymes here and while LNU plays well enough to win, they nevertheless stumble and bumble their way to a much closer margin of victory than this line would lead you to believe.   
Take the Aggies and the 27 for $50
Take the OVER for $25
Play Utah State on the MONEYLINE for $30
Oregon State @ THE Sex Toy University (-34.5 O/U: 64 THE STU MONEYLINE:  -$4,500):  Oregon State is the Rutgers of the Pac 12.  OSU only managed 1 (ONE) victory all of last season.  On top of that, they ranked in the 100’s in every measurable statistic on either side of the ball.  Not saying that OSU isn’t good, it’s just that they’re not very good.  Sex Toy U shouldn’t have a problem on Saturday.  As confident as I am that STU will win, I can’t pull the trigger on laying $4,500 to win a $100.  But it should be a no brainer...
Take THE Sex Toy U and lay the 38 for $25
Take the OVER for $25
Texas @ Maryland (+10.5   O/U:  57):  Texas is not back yet.  And Maryland has had this date circled on the calendar since they beat Texas on the 40 Acres last season.  Maryland wants validation.  Both Terp QB’s are back. The Terps will be Durk-less, but I still like a double digit HOME DOG!. 
Take the Terps and the 10.5 for $25
Washington @ Auburn (-3 O/U:  48):  Again, if Washington is supposed to be a CFP contender, why aren’t THEY giving the points here?  I guess Vegas has these teams figured out and Vegas likes the Tigers.  I can never seem to figure out Auburn (early) and Washington is in a pressure situation as this is being billed as their “Must Win” game of the season.  I’m not going to disagree, but I really don’t know who to trust.  Maybe it’s time to  
PASS
Louisville @ Alabama (-28.5 O/U: 59.5 MONEYLINE:  $1,500):  Alabama is opening up the season with more or less a brand new secondary.  Louisville is starting a 6’ 4” Soph QB that is rumored to be a dual threat.  Petrino would like to win this game bad.  His record against Satan is 0-4.  If the Cards can get out in front early and force Bama to play catch up, this game could be interesting in the 4th quarter.  VanGoder (the guy that the domers canned as d-coordinator 6 games into the season) is the D-coordinator at Louisville now and that makes me nervous.  But, I like to pick big upsets early.  First game for both teams, you never know what you’re going to get.
Take Louisville and the 28.5 for $35
Take the OVER for $25
MONEYLINE:  Take Louisville for $10
Miami @ LSU (+3 O/U: 48 MONEYLINE:  LSU +$150):  Hmmmm.  This line is definitely strange.  Of course, I’m probably guilty of remembering Miami’s last 3 season ending losses as the “Team” Miami was all last season.  I thought Miami was a little over-rated and even commented on that in my blog when they rose to number 2.  But when they blasted the domers, I was more convinced and on the bandwagon and then they subsequently collapsed, with ugly losses.  So, I can’t like the Canes in this game…
Take LSU and the 3 for $25
Take the UNDER for $25
VaTech @ FSU (-7.5 O/U: 57):  Again, strange line as FSU was fighting for a bowl berth last season and VaTech seemed to be emerging…   New coach at FSU in Taggart, but, QB Fancois is back in the line-up for FSU and Fuentes lost some key personnel from last season.  I guess it’s prudent to take the home team here and lay the points, but I expect this one could boomerang on me big-time.
Take FSU and lay the 7.5 for $25
Michigan @ the domers (EVEN O/U: 47) This spread seems a little off to me.  The reason I say that is the domers are replacing two key components of an O-line that, at times, struggled with good defenses last season – See the Miami game.  Granted, Wimbush had something to do with that, but he hasn’t left yet.  The domers are also starting a frosh RB that has exactly 0 (zero) college carries going up against Michigan’s D.  In addition, there’s a new D-coordinator in South Bend as Jimbo Fisher hired the former domer D-Coordinator at Texas A&M.  Add that to a shaky last half of the season for Winbush who couldn’t hit ANYTHING or anyone and you have a head-scratcher of a spread right here.  I would have had Michigan laying around 3.5 up to 6 points to the domers.   The O/U seems a little odd as well as I think the first team to 21 wins.    
Take Michigan and lay the 1 for $50
Take the UNDER for $25
PARLAY!
3 Bet/Team Parlay:   6-1
The Sex Toy U – Bama - Michigan:   $50
All B1G Parlay:
Utah State – Purdue – Michigan:  $50
TOTAL BET:  $600
Bank:  $400
ETC
THE Sex Toy University Scandal ISN’T GOING ANYWHERE Yet!
So, in the age of social media and only having to tap away with your thumbs (not even that if you have voice recognition) people can air their grievances and disagreements pretty quickly.  And without even having to think about it.  Which can always be dangerous. They’re really should be a holiday for this – Wait!  There is!  


A Festivus For The Rest OF Us!!
Zach and his mother are now attacking THE Sex Toy University, Urban Legend, and whoever else they can think of.  This is going to blow up and continue to grow until THE Sex Toy University does something about the situation. READ:  They will have to can Meyer. 
 “I’m just wondering where [Meyer’s] mentor was in his thinking,” Lynn Bruce wrote. “The Earle Bruce I know would be disappointed at best. My father was fiercely loyal – to a fault I will agree – but he would never compromise his integrity by apologizing to someone who has lied and brought so much damage to HER OWN CHILDREN and so many others. He would never bow down to anyone if it meant being dishonest.
Lynn Bruce said Urban Meyer would have stood up for Zach, “IF he were honest….IF he had integrity…..IF he were truly a Christian….”
Hoo Boy….Questioning Urban Legend’s Christianity….
I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Zach and his mother are the next featured guests on some wild ass reality TV show. 
Stay Tuned!!

No comments: