Friday, November 10, 2017

FMQ Week #11 - Eliminator & the B1G Mess

Eliminator Saturday!
There’s always a “Black Saturday” in November and this could be it
Bama @. MSU In Starksville
Domers @ the Canes in the Hard Rock Stadium
Georgia @ Auburn at Jordan Hare
FSU @ Clemson in Death Valley
History says that one or more of the teams in the CFP Top 4 will LOSE THIS WEEKEND.  Last year, Michigan and Clemson went down as the 2 and 3 ranked teams in the country during the second weekend of November…
Who’s it gonna’ be?  More in the FMQ!!!
Three Games Left…
Three conference games left and the B1G couldn’t be in more of a mess than it is right now.  Wiscy is banged up which will impact their ability to make the conference Championship in Indianapolis undefeated.  I still think a 12-1 Wiscy gets in (assuming they can beat the suckeyes or Sparty in the conference Championship) and the committee simply doesn’t want to go down the path of putting two SEC teams in (assuming Bama and Georgia).
Who would really get screwed in the 2-Teams from the SEC scenario?  The Rose Bowl hosts the 1-4 matchup and you can assume the committee would at least force the issue of two teams from one conference playing in the semis.  So, a game that you’ll potentially see on December 3rd you’ll get to see again on New Year’s Eve, for more money, of course.  And how many loyal Bama and Dawg fans are going to want to do THAT?
After a cursory search, I’m guessing that there’s not too many fans alive that can remember Bama’s last Rose Bowl appearance (1946) and that may be the only thing that saves the game is the “once in a lifetime chance” to go see your team play in the Rose.  
Ditto for Georgia, who’s last appearance was 1943.  So, maybe the Rose gets some fans…
How Big Is The B1G Mess??
Back to the B1G for a minute.  There’s a very real possibility that the B1G could have a 3-loss champion. I’m not making that up.  If that happens, I think the committee catches a HUGE break and can dismiss the B1G all together from the CFP.  I don’t see a scenario where a 12-Win, 1-loss Wiscy gets in if they get beat in Indy and lose to a 3-loss B1G East Champion. 
So, Back on the Winning Side of the Fence!
Always nice posting a winner and I’m extremely disappointed in Va-Tech, or it would have been an incredible week indeed.  Va-Tech probably played its worst game of the season (I’m not forgetting Clemson) and Miami clearly played one of its best games of the season.  I’ll be taking Miami in the coin flip this week as I’ve been screwed by taking them on the wrong side each time I’ve played them.  Anyway, What a Win Looks like:

Expect a shake-up that the CFP committee will need to deal with next Tuesday.
On to this week’s picks:
Washington @ Stanford (+8): That seems like a lot of points for this game on a Friday night.  However, Stanford is pretty banged up and seems to not be the same team they were earlier in the season. Bryce Love is also hobbled and may be less than 100%.  Still, seems like a lot of points, but Washington has been rolling people… 
Take Washington and lay the 8 for $25
Gatorland @ South Carolina (-9):  The Malik Zaire experiment didn’t do much to fix the offensive woes.   I’m guessing that the Gators have really nothing left to play for at this point as they only have 3 wins and a bowl is a long shot, at best.  And Muschamp gets a chance to dish out some revenge.  This smells like an EASY cover for the Gamecocks
Take the Gamecocks and lay the 9 for $40
Nebraska @ Minnesota (-2):  Minnesota can still go Bowling with 2 more wins…the Cornsuckers?    Yeah, they need two wins, also, but my feeling is they may not have the same chance to make a bowl…  This may start out close, but I feel like the Boat Rowers are going to bounce back in the Twin Cities and send the Cornsuckers home for the holidays.   
Take the Gophers and lay the 2 for $25
Arkansas @ LSU (-16):  LSU didn’t beat Bama, but they did expose them.  I know the transitive property doesn’t apply, but LSU at home and Arkansas not playing for anything sounds like a really bad combination for a November game... 
Take LSU and lay the 16 for $30
Indiana @ Illini (+8):  This will be the game that Indiana wins!  Maybe.  Indiana has an outside shot at a bowl game but the Illini are done.  I think Lovie looks at the rest of his youth in this game getting ready for next season.
Take Indiana and lay the 8 for $30
Sparty @ Suckeyes (-16):  ELIMINATOR?  A two loss suckeyes with a B1G Championship would still have an outside shot at the CFP.  A 3-Loss B1G Champion would NOT.  Suckeyes were exposed and you can bet that this was a tough week of practice.  Still, I like Sparty getting 3 scores.
Take Sparty and the 16 for $25
Iowa @ Wiscy (-12):  Iowa at Home vs. Iowa on the ROAD.  Iowa is definitely this week’s bandwagon pick after what they did to the Suckeyes. And Wiscy has a ton of players banged up and lost leading receiver Cephus for the season.  But Iowa only managed 10 points in Evanston and shot themselves in the foot multiple times in East Lansing.  Something is telling me to lay points here for a min bet.  It’s November and its Madison…
Take the Cheeseheads and lay the 12 for $25
FSU @ Clemson (-18):  If you would have told me this spread at the beginning of the season, I’d have said you were crazy.  Now?  I’m not sure it’s high enough.  I think there’s value in taking Clemson at Home and laying those points.  I’ll hate myself on Sunday if the Seminoles show up for the game.  All they can be is spoilers at this point.  Which is dangerous...
Take Clemson and lay the 18 for $35
Georgia @ Auburn (+1  MONEYLINE  $125):  Auburn getting points at HOME!!   SP+ and FancyStats love Auburn right now.  And Auburn has done it against better competition.  Georgia’s Top 10 Defense has done it against mostly weak SEC East opponents (remember Florida and the Volunteers?  They kind of suck…) Georgia has a frosh QB that hasn’t seen anything close to what Auburn has on Defense.  And Auburn QB Stidham might be able to pick apart the Georgia D.  To me, this is an easy pick, but then again, what do I know.  Auburn may roll hard here.  I’ll call this as one of the 2nd Weekend in November upsets and take the extra juice on the moneyline.
Take Auburn and the MONEYLINE for $30
Bama @ Miss State (+14.5):  It’s a rarity when Bama is laying less than three scores and Bama spreads are usually about a TD inflated for any given line.  Taking that into account, Miss State is only a TD dog at home and has a QB rushing attack, which plays into one of the weaker parts of Bama’s game.  Can MSU pass?   Get out in front of them and this might be a game.  Plus:  Those F@#$%ing BELLS!!!  Clanga-Clanga!!!
Take Miss State and the 14.5 for $25
Domers @ Miami (+3):  Miami looked like a legitimate football team last Saturday and Va-Tech stunk the joint up.  Based on the fact that this is at Hard Rock Stadium and the crowd will be there in force, I like Miami this week when I probably should not.  Can Miami’s improving rush D handle the Domer’s rushing sensation Josh Adams?  That’s the question.  And I don’t have a solid answer.  Therefore, flip the coin. 
Take Miami and the 3 for $25
Tennessee @ Mizzou (-10.5):  Tennessee is a dead team (with a dead coach)  walking...Mizzou has gotten its act together and pantsed Florida last week. I don’t see why they can’t do it again to a Vols team that has already checked out. 
Take Mizzou and lay the 10.5 for $40
TCU @ Oklahoma (-7):  TCU is two different teams whether they’re at home or on the road...TCU laid an egg on both offense and defense up in Ames against ISU on the road.  And I’m done doubting Baker Mayfield and the Laters this season.  If Bedlam last week taught me anything it’s that Oklahoma is looking for committee style points. 
Take the Laters and lay the 7 for $25
Michigan @ Maryland (-13.5):  Maryland may be forced to start their 4th QB of the season on Saturday.  I cannot think of a team that’s had worse injury luck than Maryland over the last 2 to 4 seasons. Derkin is trying to get it done with bubble gum and bobby pins, but starting a new QB against Michigan’s D?  That poor kid might get killed or worse, eaten by Mo Hurst...
Take Michigan and lay the 13.5 for $40
3 Bet/Team Parlay:   6-1

South Carolina – Mizzou - Michigan:   $50

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