Friday, December 19, 2014

Harbaugh Watch - The FMQ "Call Me Deacon Blues"

Wojo’s column on the Harbaugh offer – I agree with most if not all of it.  IT’s time….

The Harbaugh camp has said….well, they’ve said….nothing.  And most of the talking heads seem to think that Michigan’s offer is bona-fide, and that Harbaugh is going to wait and take a look at all his options come December 29th, or the day after the regular season is over, in the NFL.

I’m a little miffed at the NFL talking heads that were on ESPN and again on the NFL network last night and stating unequivocally that, 

“No word from Harbaugh CLEARLY INDICATES that he’s staying in the NFL and he’s simply going to leverage the offer from Michigan to get a better package from someone else.  He did it 4 years ago with his offer from San Fran and he’s using Michigan again.  Harbaugh’s agent leaked the info so the other teams can get their offers together.” 

 That may not be the EXACT quote, but its close.

And while that may ALL BE ENTIRELY TRUE, I believe that Harbaugh is about to find out that the middle tier NFL GM’s and owners have all been through this enough to know that a guy can get on a roll for two or three seasons and then just flame out (see Daniel Snyder).  And a savvy GM is probably thinking just that:  Jimmy had a great defense and got the most out of Kaepernick as well.  And it’s hard to work miracles twice – it’s better to have proven people and even then, well, you can have a disaster.  Ask Peyton Manning and the Broncos about that.  And if I can find a coach with great personnel that can get me close, well, I can have that coach a lot cheaper than $8M+ it will take to land Harbaugh.  I’m sure New Orleans is tickled with the 5 wins that the $8M Coach Sean Peyton has led the team to this season.  Just sayin’….

So, the whole leverage thing might not be there in the end…unless the NFL is really where Harbaugh wants to be. 

And maybe, and I’m just spit-balling here, mind you….MAYBE Hackett leaked that offer or the UofM AD decided, “Look it’s in our best interests to go ahead and let the world know what we offered Harbaugh so we can at least find out what’s in Harbaugh’s  head and heart and if he doesn’t want to come back it won’t be for lack of trying.  And the money certainly should not be an issue.”

See where I’m going?  The leak is a win for everybody.  Hackett immediately has credibility that he’s doing what the fans want and if Jimmy says no, well, than on to plan B.  And that’s a good thing because than any anger the fans have after that, if there is anger, can be directed at Jim and not at Michigan.  Cumon’….Michigan did everything it COULD. 

And for everyone that thinks the offer is too much:  Uh, you’re wrong.  Plain and simple.     NFC Championship and Super Bowl coach.  This is a guy that if he had stayed at Stanford was going to have a shot at a National Title.  Saban type money is not only necessary, but you’re kidding yourself if you think Harbaugh would even give you a 2nd glance for anything less.  So, I’m not ignoring your texts or tweets, but it’s not too much money. 

It’s the necessary amount if that’s what you want.   And Michigan has heard from its fans and they are tired of losing to Sparty and the Suckeyes to what appear to be superior coaching staffs.  Fix that problem and Michigan will begin to heal itself. 

The FMQ – Call me “Deacon Blues”

They got a name for the winners in the world
And I want a name when I lose
They call Alabama the “Crimson Tide”
Call me “Deacon Blues”
                                    -Steely Dan

Heard that song on the way to the office this AM and its one that gets kind of stuck in your head when you hear it…But I thought, “Gee, how appropriate for the FMQ!!!”  A name when I lose….

And what a crappy season its been.  I’ve learned a few things doing this and the one thing I learned that I seem to forget is find a team(s) that is good ATS and STICK WITH THAT TEAM!!!  Oregon, Stanford (with Luck), and others have proven they are great ATS teams.  I need to remember that and not get seduced by attractive point spreads and lousy ATS teams….

Anyway, the latest bank number is as follows:

BANK:           $419

Here’s the bowl picks for anyone that still hasn’t completed a confidence pool.  I actually got an invite into one but didn’t have time to complete.  Never the less, I like to measure my predictive capability and see how I do. 

And, of course, some bets.  Might as well blow the wad, so to speak.

Utah vs Colorado State (+2.5):  Seems like CSU should be getting a lot more points here and the UTES are by far the superior team.

Take Utah and lay the 2.5 for $30

Central Michigan vs Western Kentucky (+3):   I like the Chippies in the Bahamas and I’m really looking forward to seeing a game from the Bahamas!  I hope all you Chippie grads and students are going!!!

Take Central and lay the 3 for $40

Boston College vs. Penn State (+2.5):  Penn State’s vs bowl since the darkness…and they’re getting points?  This seems like a no –brainer to me and there’s no WAY the B1G loses all 10 bowl games….

Take Penn State and the 2.5 for $50

Oklahoma vs. Clemson (+3):  No way Oklahoma is as bad as its record.  And I think Stoops is going to be “Auditioning” for whoever might be out there looking….

Take Oklahoma and lay the 3 for $30

LSU vs domers (+7):  That’s it?  That’s it for a team that’s lost the last 4 games by a combined 100+ points?  For a team that has no defense and no desire to play?

I’ll take LSU and lay the 7 for $80

Maryland vs. Stanford (-14):  Man….B1G vs. PAC….I’ve gotta believe that Randy Edsall keeps it closer than that….

Take Maryland and the 14 for $20

 FSU vs. Oregon (9.5):  Vegas has this one right…and I think Oregon wins walking away….

Take Oregon and lay the 9.5 for $40

OSU vs. BAMA (-9.5):  I hate to do this…suckeyes simply too impressive against Wiscy..and yes, Bama isn’t Wiscy, but I find it hard to believe that the Suckeyes don’t somehow keep this close…

Take ohio and the 9.5 for $20


LSU-OREGON-Bama  $39 pays $250

CMU-PSU-Utah   $40 pays $260

Starting BANK:       $419
Total Bet:                  $419

BANK:                       $0

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