Tuesday, May 8, 2012

National Title Odds Have Posted

For those of you wondering where the Ole MMQ gets his best information and season prognosticating abilities from, here's a BIG piece of it....The Las Vegas NCAA Championship odds have been posted.  These will fluctuate throughout the summer, but for the most part, it is what it is.

I first discovered this years ago when travelling to Nevada on work related issues.  I had not idea (at the time) that the sports books in vegas actually posted futures on the NCAA.  I knew that the NFL and pro sports across the board had them, but as far as NCAA events were concerned, I thought they just created a weekly line.  I mean, what kind of gambling junky needs a National Championship Line in May, anyway?

Well.....I guess I answered my own question!

USC           9/2

LSU           5/1
Alabama    11/2
Oklahoma  10/1
Oregon      10/1
Florida State 12/1
Georgia        12/1
Arkansas     20/1
Michigan      25/1
Notre Dame  25/1
Texas             28/1
Virginia Tech  28/1
Clemson        30/1
South Carolina 30/1
West Virginia   30/1
Nebraska         35/1
Wisconsin       40/1
Boise State     50/1
Florida            50/1
Kansas State   50/1
Michigan State  50/1
TCU                 50/1
Auburn              60/1
Miami (Florida)  75/1
Mississippi State  75/1
Oklahoma State  75/1
Cincinnati            100/1
Iowa                   100/1
Missouri              100/1
Penn State           100/1
Stanford              100/1
Washington          100/1
California             125/1
Pittsburgh            125/1
Arizona               150/1
BYU                  150/1
Georgia Tech      150/1
Tennessee          150/1
Texas A&M       150/1
Boston College   200/1
Oregon State      200/1
South Florida      200/1
UCLA                200/1

What's interesting to me, is that better publications will all fall along this same "rank" for their pre-season top 25 with small variations.  However, instead of having an AP or USAToday poll, I believe we should just let Vegas tell us who the top teams are for the first 6 weeks. 
1.  6 SEC teams in the top 20...No surprise.
2.  4 B1G teams in top 20...Somewhat of a surprise as I'm expecting a slightly down B1G Season...
3.  Domers in the Top 20?  I don't know WHERE that came from
4.  USC and Barkley is the Chalk
5.  LSU and Alabama virtually tied for 2nd. 
6. Oklahoma with it's pre-season top 10 rank..what else is new?
7.  FSU seems strangely over-rated....Not sure what I'm missing there....
But, it's Vegas and they usually know more than anyone else...
After all, it's THEIR JOB to know....
Strangely, after my last blog and the analysis on National Championship odds, Michigan is right about where I thought they should be:  25 to 1.  I predicted that they should be around 20-1 any given year, but 25 is in the +/- of my analysis.  I know, that seems like a pretty wide range, but we're talking abot NCAA Football here, where momentum is everything, new coaches and freshman surprises can make a 150-1 team look like they have a National Title shot and nothing is ever as it seems from the pre-season to the final game.
That's what makes it Great!

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