Monday, June 14, 2010

Expansion Puzzle Has Many Pieces and Moving Parts

Okay, you've all heard by now that the following has taken place:

1. Nebraska is in the Big 10.
2. Colorado is going to the Pac 10 (Assuming everyone votes Colorado in).
3. Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State apparently are being welcomed to the Pac 10 with open arms to take that league to 15 teams.
4. The one remaining spot is apparently going to Utah (This remains to be seen- See the comments below.)
5. Texas A&M appears to be headed to the SEC, leaving that team with 13 teams.
6. The remainder of the Big 12 is running around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to find a home. Kansas, K-State, Missouri, Baylor, and Iowa State.

What's left that could possibly happen?

I leave that to Spencer Hall from EDSBS and his handy-dandy chart of what the hell is going on in expansion.

What's interesting:

1. The Big 12 rules of dissolution state that the Big 12 can only dissolve with a majority vote (8 votes). Seems like the Big 12 (Or at least the members that are leaving) is desperately trying to get 8 votes. So, if Kansas somehow manages to land a spot in either the BEast or MWC, would they become the deciding vote? And if they did that, why on earth would they leave before they could collect on all the penalty fees that everyone else will have to forfeit to the Big 12? That's $10M for each school, kiddies...That's $80M divided 5 ways for two plus years...That ain't too shabby...
2. The latest rumor that Beebe is able to take what will be $20M in departure fees from Colorado and Nebraska, distribute that (unequally of course) to the remaining teams and somehow keep the league alive for a couple of more years as a 10 team league. The Big 12 would lose the conference championship, but each school would gain a larger slice of the television contract pie, which Beebe is claiming will be more than what they had before...I'm not buying that last part because you lost two of the teams from the Big 12 North that people actually tuned in to watch! How can you lose content and get more money from the networks???
3. The BEast: The conference everyone thought was all but gone turns out has life after all. Which is basically because there's not a school in there that's worth a crap and any school in the BEast would immediately bolt for greener pastures, given the opportunity.
4. IF Texas A&M CANNOT be swayed by Beebe then the SEC is looking for team #14. And you can bet that it will either come from the ACC or possibly they will make a run at a different Big 12 team. If they get Georgia Tech or Clemson, the two hot rumor choices, followed closely by Miami and FSU, then the ACC needs to add one to keep it's conference championship.
5. And that one will most likely come from the BEast in the form of Syracuse, Pitt, Rutger or U-Conn...Anything about those names seem familiar? Yep, all the same schools that everyone thought would go to the Big 10. But if the BEast loses one of them and...
6. The Big 10 grabs another and the BEast is done. Meaning Notre Dame doesn't have a home for it's other sports and needs to join a conference, most likely...
7. The Big 10. So, the Big 10 adds a BEast school and Notre Dame and stops at 14. That would be more than enough for the powers that be in the Big 10.
8. Texas may become its own worst enemy with their irrational idea that they can have a Texas Longhorn Network. My guess is that there is going to be a pretty big fight for what games they can actually show. Let's think about this in terms of networks:
-Networks are going to get the big games, plain and simple. No TLN revenue there.
-Games played outside of Texas stadium are probably the property of the other team and they will sell Texas those rights, but you can bet that Texas will pay dearly for those rights.
-That leaves some small, flea bag type games on the TLN. Think people are going to pay a premium (in this economy) for that? Yes, all the bars in Texas will pay, but I doubt you generate as much as Texas thinks they're going to generate.
9. Some schools are really going to get the shaft in this deal...Namely, Kansas, K-State, Iowa State, Missouri, and to a lesser extent, Baylor. Baylor was a small school to begin with and probably didn't deserve what it got in the Big 12 re-alignment the first time around. But the others are Big 8 originals that are now left holding the bag, wondering where they can go.
10. Makes you glad to be in the Big 10 conference, doesn't it? It would seem that the only two conferences worth their salt right now are the Big 10 and SEC.

So, does that all make sense now? Good.

Please explain it to me!!!!!!

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