E-mail, Texts and Tweets
Best Question received so far:
“Seeing you put last season’s final game up
on the blog with Walton missing that shot made me think of a question: Would you trade Poole’s shot this season for
a make by Walton last season against Oregon?”
Hmmmmmmmmm…Damn…Damn,
damn, damn…Oh, Good Lord!
DAMMIT!!!!
That’s a REALLY, REALLY HARD
Question. I know I can’t have both and
death’s not an option. A Sweet 16 Berth
or an Elite 8 berth, one step closer to a National Title…
HOW DO
YOU MAKE THIS DECISION???
WHY DO
YOU PEOPLE ASK ME STUFF LIKE THIS?????
The Rest
of my afternoon is totally shot. I mean,
TOTALLY.
Let’s look at this a couple of
different ways – speculatin’ and data. First,
we’ll speculate. The next game in the Regional
Final pitted Oregon against Kansas, who they beat rather handily. QED, we can assume that Michigan would have beat
Kansas also. Which, I think that’s
a relatively safe assumption. The next
game in the semi’s had Oregon losing to unc by 1-point!!! Can we assume that Michigan might have found a
way to win that game? I think we
can…especially based on the way Michigan was playing at the end of last season.
Then, the Zags went down easily to unc in
the championship. Assuming all
things being equal and assuming that Michigan could in fact have beaten unc,
there’s a pretty good chance that might have been a FF berth and Championship
opportunity missed with one little basket, that Walton had made a
million times previous to that shot.
Looking at 2017’s Massey Ratings Prediction
tool (which hasn’t predicted much correctly THIS SEASON!), we have the
following:
Michigan was not favored over Oregon, was a
3-2 dog against unc, but had an edge over the Zags. And unc vs. Oregon was closer to a toss-up.
Now, some data. I’m going to remind EVERYONE that Michigan
was way better than their final KenPom stats indicated last season as they were
playing a lot better in the final 10 games than they were early in the season. IF you recall, we had to sweat Michigan even
making the Tourney as late as mid-February and even going into the B1G Tourney. Then, the plane crash and 4 wins in 4 days
got Michigan the B1G auto-bid and a 7-Seed. Still, I think if Walton had hit that shot, a
championship
run was very, VERY possible…Think I’m fibbin’ about the last 10
games?
Here’s a link!!! (Which I saved in the header above, also, for
quick reference!)
So, yes, Michigan was
statistically better than the remaining competition last season.
Comparing that to this year and predicting
who Michigan will play based on top seeds left, the probabilities are roughly
the same, and I think Villanova’s very beatable when they have to go up against
a good defense.
Man…Like I said, tough question but
I have
to make a decision...
ANSWER:
Based on the fact that I think – “THINK” this team might be slightly
better than 2017’s Helluvan’ Offense team, I THINK “Team 2018” has a better
defense and might beat “Team 2017”.
Yeah, two of the potential NC opponents
of Duke and Villanova both over Michigan (currently)…
I’m going with Poole and this
season.
But MAN, THIS IS A TERRIBLE QUESTION TO ASK A
MICHIGAN FAN!!!!
Especially me!!!
“What’s up with Wagner? We’re screwed if we don’t get some more
production out of him…”
I have to agree. What’s been up with Wagner is his
ass is usually down on the bench with early fouls. I don’t know why they’ve gotten away from the
strategy of “Moe Takes the First Shot of the game from the 3”, other
than a lot of teams are onto that ever since Stauskas was doing it a couple of
seasons ago. I believe
Mo-Buckets taking and making that first shot defines the rest of the game. That first play must be on every opposing scouting
report’s first line and, no matter what, you deny Mo-Buckets or cover him tight
outside. On top of that, Moe’s not
quite the deadeye that Stauskas was, either.
Anyway, Wagner’s GOT TO STOP MAKING DUMB FOULS and stay in the game. IT’s that simple…
“What do you really think of Michigan’s
chances against Texas A&M? You have
to admit, they didn’t look good enough to beat them last weekend. “
Yes, I’ll admit they didn’t look
like the team that won the B1G Tourney. I
hate to go down the “Well, it was the 12 days off” excuse road, but something
needs to flip the script back to where they were playing at the end of the
season. I’m hoping this weekend
was just a little fluky and Michigan is back to their average stat line or better
on Thursday. Always trust the stats,
folks. (And don’t throw the University
of Maryland Back-up College stats at me and say “why didn’t UVA win??) shit happens, but usually,
Math don’t
lie!!!
In addition, Texas A&M played
the game of their season, and that’s not likely to happen 2 times in a row (I
hope). Looking purely at KenPom, I’m liking
Michigan’s chances by about 3 points with a 10th ranked Team
vs a 25th ranked team. Let’s
call it a 60-40 vs. what Massey spit out above (66-34). Last 10 games for Texas A&M (rank): 32.
Worry if Michigan can’t shut down A&M’s
shooters or have trouble getting the defensive rebounds they’re used to
getting.
“I watched a little of the NIT- still buzzing
from the weekend – do you think the NCAA would ever re-seed like that?”
God, I hope not. I know there’s always talk of that every
season, usually in the 4 days immediately following the first weened of the
tourney, especially when one bracket gets completely decimated “giving”
Kentucky or someone and easy FF road (this year’s South Region). But nobody’s going to lay down to Kentucky
and this is usually when Kentucky loses (this season), when they play a lesser
opponent. Personally, I would leave it
the way it is. There’s no need to screw
with something that is close to perfect already.
Kelvin Sampson Claims Best Team Lost Saturday
Night
Well...Yeah.
It’s March Madness. That Happens.
Are you new to this? Did you see Virginia, unc and others go down
over the weekend? Put it this way: You have a lot of elite company sitting on the
couch with you if that makes you feel any better!!!
Izzo’s Style Decimating Draft Stock
From SI: Mock Draft Shows Bridges Dropping Down to 12th
– Jackson #3
Interesting. Take talent and put it into an archaic
playing style, don’t coach it up and draft stock drops. Sounds about right. I believe Bridges was a top 5 pick last
season and to drop 7 spots in the NBA draft is kind of a big deal. If Izzo keeps that formula up, he’ll start
losing top recruits. Wagner
projected in the 2nd round…
Don’t F%$#ck With Tradition For TV Time…Spring
Game Time Announced
Spring Game Time: Saturday, April 14th, 7:00PM
This is bad on so many levels…
Weather will play into this. Fans would like to be sitting in the spring
sunshine at noon rather than sitting in the cold spring night air, that’s for
sure. And if there’s
precipitation, fuggedabout it. I guess
people will go, and if Patterson is eligible, the place will be relatively full.
Still don’t like it.
Grumpy Old Fan has made
his comment.
Softball and Baseball Both Sweep Last
Weekend!!!
The Men swept BGSU and the Women
swept Dayton, Miami, Robert Morris and Fort Wayne. Local play to start next week, assuming
the snow is gone…
ETC
Is The NCAA Tourney The Best Way To Crown a
National Champion?
Check out this list
compiled by USA Today that ranks the best teams not to win a championship. Makes you wonder about the NCAA Tourney and “Defining”
the National Champion in 6 games over 3 weekends…I would never want to
play some of the teams on this list EVER.
And yet, somehow, upsets happen and ended the run of some of the best
teams in college hoops…
NCAA Basketball vs. NCAA Hockey – WTF?
Two collegiate sports managed
entirely different by the NCAA. Adopt the Hockey model for Basketball and life
will get a helluva lot easier…
Most Busted Brackets EVER!!!
I guess this really isn’t news,
but never the less, figuring out brackets may be the biggest waste of time EVER!!!
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