Friday, September 8, 2017

FMQ Week #2 2017

WOOHOO!!!!   I love it when a plan comes together! 
Listening to the MMQ is paying dividends!  The MMQ was right about Texas not being anything more than what we thought they were last season and Durk’s Terps are going to surprise people!
Last week’s results:

So, it’s nice being up $200+ out of the gate!  Great Feeling!  So great in fact I may go a little “over” on my betting limit cause when I’m winning, I feel like I’m “seeing” things better!  Wining begets winning and I love riding the train!
I’m actually kind of glad Michigan plays at noon as the bulk of this week’s “Big Games” start in the evening.  Screwy scheduling and multiple TV’s or being at a sports bar will be required if you want to watch the Big 4: 
 Laters – suckeyes, Auburn – Clemson, Stanford – USC and domers – Dawgs!   
All have a 7-7:30 – 8:30 PM Kick!
And then there’s this guy. They made Crystal Meth illegal for reasons, ya know???
And Urban Legend calling out former assistant Hermann for saying the “cupboard is bare” and the Texas program is in a shambles
On to this week’s picks:
Golden Gophers @ Oregon State (-2 O/U:  51.5):  Fleck rows the yacht to the West Coast for a late night (10:00PM Kick PST) game that shouldn’t mess with the Gophers body clocks too much.  I didn’t understand this spread when I saw it.  I figured the Gophers would be LAYING points in this game and they’re getting 2?  OSU’s program is a disaster and they lost to C-State by a LOT.  They screwed me last week, but I’m sticking with the Gophers.
Take the Gophers and the 2 for $30
Iowa @ Iowa State (+2.5 O/U:  48):  This was another spread I looked at and thought should have been higher, but this is a big rivalry game in the state of Iowa.  Iowa impressed me on defense against Wyoming and I’ll ride the momentum train with the Hawkeyes…
Take the Iowa and lay the 2.5 for $30
Pitt @ PSU (-22   O/U:  67):  This spread surprises me a little.  The O/U surprised me A LOT.   First, Pitt beat PSU last season.  So, yeah, revenge.  Second, I don’t think PSU is as good as everyone claims they are.  Akron was no test.  Third, last I checked, Narduzzi is still Pitt’s coach and knows a thing or two about getting his team up for a rivalry game.  PSU is playing with a target on their back this year.  Watch out!
Take Pitt and the 22 points for $50
WMU @ MSU (-7 O/U:  51):  Sparty sucks in these games.  In Sparty’s last 12 games as a single digit favorite, they’ve failed to cover 9 times and have out right lost 6.  Western is a team that knows how to win and they’re not afraid of anyone.  They gave the #4 team in the country USC all that they could handle.  I’m betting 1st year coach Lester is thinking it’d be really nice to have another B1G Pelt to hang on the wall at Western.  And I’ll bet they keep it within the spread…
Take WMU and the 7 for $30
Nebraska @ Oregon (-14 O/U:  69.5):  Hmmmm.  Spread seems high as neither team really played anyone the first week and Oregon rolled while Nebraska had first game problems.  Last year was a close game.  Going to Autzen is tough and the Ducks rarely lose there, well, with the exception of last season.  I want to say the Quack Attack is back, but I’m nervous laying 14 against what could be an improved Husker squad with a game under their belt.
Take Nebraska and the 14 for $25
Stanford @ USC (-7   O/U:  56):  The over in this game is intriguing to me.  USC’s defense just gave up 30+ points to Western Michigan.  Granted, Western’s pretty good, but Stanford is a WHOLE LOT BETTER.  They rolled up 70 points on Rice in Australia.  Plus, Stanford has had an extra week to prep for USC.  I’ll play the over, and I like the Cardinal.
Take Stanford and the 7 for $30
Take the OVER for $30
Georgia @ Domers (-4.5 O/U:  56.5):  I’ll be honest, I’ve flip-flopped on this game a couple of times.  This is kind of a weird line.  I guess Vegas is thinking that it’s coming down to a field goal one way or the other.  I thought the Domers looked impressive on both sides of the ball on Saturday.  New coordinators paying off?  Georgia is starting their back-up QB (who some insiders believe is a better overall QB than the starter) on the road where it SHOULD be a pretty good night crowd.  Can I trust the Domers to live up to the task?  Nope.  I’ll actually call this game the “Kirby Smart first big road win” game…
Take the Dawgs and the 4.5 for $25
Auburn @ Clemson (-4.5 O/U:  53.5):  Line is about where I’d have it based on what we saw last season between these two teams and the first games out of the gate more or less convinced me that Clemson is ready to defend and Auburn wants to be meaningful again.  Both defenses are the strengths of this team.  Weather from Irma shouldn’t be a factor.
Take Clemson at HOME at NIGHT In DEATH VALLEY and lay the 4.5 for $30
Oklahoma @ suckeyes (-6.5 O/U:  64.5):  This is the 2nd game I’ve flip-flopped and flip-flopped like a friggin’ flounder on several times...  And I really tried to keep the emotions out of it.  You know, cause I hate the Laters so much…Last season was an emotional bet thinking Sooners at home, highly motivated would win a pick-em game and the suckeyes demolished them…However, Baker Mayfield claims he came back to accomplish some tasks.  Revenge for last season’s spanking at HOME would be a great way to begin up in Columbus. The suckeyes did look absolutely abominable in the 1st half of the Indiana Game.  Still, 2nd game at home in your typical Hostile Horseshoe isn’t an easy place to win. And I think the suckeyes defense might be better than last season… Dammit….
Take the suckeyes and lay the 6.5 for $25
Cincinnati @ Michigan (-34 O/U:  48):  At first glance, this spread might scare you.  I, OTOH, was actually licking my chops…Do you know how many games Austin Peay has won in the last 3 seasons? ONE.  Know how many they’ve won in the last 2 seasons? ZERO.  The closest AP has come to winning a game in 2 years was last Saturday at Cinci, who went 4-8 last season in the AACCinci is not a great team.  Former suckeye interim coach Luke Fickell has taken over the reins at what used to be a pretty good program.  It’s not anymore.  Tuberville let it tank in the 4 seasons he was there.  My thought process on this game Saturday is going something like this:  Michigan’s offense will be effective, and by that I mean that they’ll probably easily score 21-28 points (Bearcats gave up 27/game last season).  The unknowns are Michigan’s Defense –
Will they score? (I’m going to assume yes – perhaps multiple times) and DPJ could take one punt return back for a score as well.  I don’t see Cincinnati scoring a lot, but they will probably hit a big play or two along the way as they do have some receivers and Michigan’s corners are young. If Michigan does get on a roll…look out.  Opening Game, raucous home crowd… A Rutgers-ish score from last season may not be out of the question.  Jimmy doesn’t use the Brake Pedal very often… Total points should get Michigan over this spread and over the O/U…
Take Michigan and lay the 34 for $75
Take the OVER 48 for $75
3 Bet/Team Parlay:   6-1

Michigan – Michigan OVER– USC/Stanford OVER:   $30

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