Thursday, September 22, 2016

FMQ Week #4

One quarter of the season already in the bag (for most teams).  9 very important games to go.  Time moves fast once the season gets here, doesn’t it?

I know you’ve probably read a couple of the articles about Brady returning to the Big House, but this is the best one – By Far.

I remember being pissed off about the 1999 season and the back and forth between Henson (who I really didn’t like) and Brady.  Brady earned the starting job, but maybe the whole experience made him the pro he is today.

BTW – This just in!!!  B1G West Division Rankings:

Team                         Overall           Conference

Western Michigan  3-0                  2-0

NDS Bison               3-0                  1-0

Wisconsin                 3-0                  0-0

Nebraska                   3-0                  0-0

Minnesota                 3-0                  0-0

Iowa                          2-1                  0-0

Purdue                      1-1                  0-0

Illinois                       1-2                  0-0

Northwestern            1-2                  0-0

I’ll Take Western and the BIZONS out once somebody else has two B1G West Wins!

Idle Thought of the Week

Louisville has averaged over 60 points in their 3 victories to date.  Bobby Petrino was considered an offensive genius while at Louisville and everywhere he went (after he left Louisville the FIRST time) and was probably going to lead Arkansas to an SEC West Title, a subsequent SEC Title and to a possible shot at a National Title. That is, of course, until he piled up his Harley with his sweet young girlfriend Jessica Dorrel riding along with him!  You remember Jessica – She was a Hot Seat Mascot in 2012!!  After that little adulterous incident, Jeff Long (Arkansas AD) dismissed Bobby and he wandered around in the desert for awhile before Louisville decided to gamble on him again. 

The Thought of the Week is:  How many coaches have been fired and hired since Ole Bobby got canned from Arkansas by Jeff Long?  And how many coaches are in the SEC Camp that is defined as follows:  Morals and regards for rules are similar to how rules are viewed in NASCAR:  IF you Ain’t Cheatin’, You Ain’t Tryin’!!!   Based on recent NCAA investigations and questioning, let’s say ALL OF THE Coaches fall into this category.

And how many of those schools and fan bases are looking at Bobby today with a little bit of Green Envy thinking, “Well That’s Fantastic….Why didn’t WE take a shot at Petrino instead of Coach X (Muschamp, Jones, Stoops, etc.)?” 

After all, it was just adultery, fergodsakes!  In the hierarchy of SEC crimes, that one probably falls on the low end of the morality list.  Several rungs below selling your team’s stolen play book for money to the opposition. 

Yep – Bobby could still be an SEC coach at some point after this year’s opening three games at Louisville.  Don’t think for a second that his name isn’t on at least one list out there.

Idle Thought of the Week #2

Based on some BIG BLUE BLOOD NAMES already knocked out of the CFP (Domers, USC, Oklahoma, Rebels others, see:  MMQ – Stampede Averted) as of September 17th, and the angst and depression those programs feel and some of the Big Money that’s behind those programs that’s probably pretty bummed as well, I can’t help but think that the CFP is going to be forced to entertain the idea of CFP Expansion SOONER rather than LATER.  Especially if, for example, USC’s only regular season losses are to Bama and Stanford.  And Houston and OSU go undefeated and the Laters win out (don’t laugh – have you seen the Big Xii??).   I can’t for the life of me think of a scenario that helps the Domers, but you see where I’m going here.

For the BigXii to even have a shot this season there would need to be 6 or 8 spots in the CFP with guaranteed spots for the Power 5 Champions.  The 6th spot could go to the Group of 5 Champion (probably Houston) and if you wanted to go to 8 spots, you could have two at large bids.  Think of it like the Wild Card in MLB and the NFL.  Definitely keeps a lot of fan bases more interested in the regular season longer…and doesn’t necessarily spell doom and gloom for teams that start with a tough schedule and go 1-2….

If it were Bama at 1-2 instead of the Rebels…this conversation might already be happening!

(For all the long time readers:  I know this is a repeat of a very, VERY old MMQ-FMQ thought, but man, it would keep things interesting!!)


Last Weekend was not a complete disaster for the FMQ, but transitive properties, statistics, win-loss records and how teams look one week DO NOT APPLY To the following week. We’ve dipped down into the red and here’s where we stand.


With respect to the aforementioned Research:  CASE IN POINT:

Wisconsin was a 34 point favorite playing a team that was 0-2 and had set an NCAA record in one of those previous games by achieving less than15 Minutes Time of Possession!  Georgia State sucked, Wiscy knew it and took the weekend off.  There’s no other way to explain it.

Regarding the Seminoles:  Louisville was COMPLETELY STOKED for the Seminoles and the Seminoles were looking ahead to I don’t know who or what and completely forgot to show up. 

The Domers Disrespected Sparty and believed the 7.5 point spread Vegas was giving. In addition, I believe the Domers forgot how to play defense and also didn’t realize that PASSING THE BALL in the 1st half is permitted and encouraged.  Duh….The Domers paid the price, as did several bettors.

Weekly Lessons Learned:

Wisconsin Sucks.  I will be watching Wiscy, but may only take the ATS at this point in time. 

If I would have gone “Opposite Way” last week, I would have won more money and MY PARLAY WOULD HAVE COME IN!  That’s really, really bad when all three of your parlay picks go the opposite way. 

Seasonal Lessons Learned:

I have no F*@^%ing clue.  Let’s leave it at that. 

I will say that there were a LOT of games that I really liked this week and I’m breaking my bet limit rule due to that.  Conference play has begun and there’s no holding back! 

So, without further ado, let’s make some bets!


Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+8.5)

Hmmm….Georgia Tech can play against the big boys and are a quiet 3-0 with fairly impressive stats, but they haven’t been noticed yet this season.  Of course, Clemson hasn’t exactly blown my doors off, either.  Based on the flimsy assumption that Clemson might be looking ahead to Louisville (Clemson should not look ahead to ANYONE), I’ll take the Wramblin’ Wreck in the hopes that Clemson also snuck some of the GT Clear Whiskey out of the liquor cabinet thinking they could cruise through this game…

Take the Wramblin’ Wreck and the 8.5 for $25


Georgia @ Ole Miss (-7)

Hugh needs a big Win to get to 0.500.  Kirby WANTS a big Win.  While this is an SEC East vs. West match-up, neither team wants to lose.  But I’m going with the superiority of the West vs. the East in this game.

Take Ole Miss and lay the 7 for $25

Wiscy @ Sparty (Monday:  -6 Today:  -4.5)

I hate the cheeseheads… I hate Sparty.  Ergo:  Somebody I hate is gonna’ lose!  Wiscy coming off a near miss to an FCS school could mean that they were hiding EVERYTHING from Sparty.  Sparty coming off the B1G win over the Domers could be a little flat….This game will probably be a 6 or now a 4.5 point finish – either way.  Therefore, PASS.

Iowa @ Rutgers (+13.5)

MY guess is the Hawkeyes come out with vengeance on their mind in Jersey after the debacle that just occurred in Iowa City.  Rutgers doesn’t have the guns to hang with them and the Hawkeyes try to re-establish their national identity with the pollsters. 

Take Iowa and lay the 13.5 for $25

Florida State @ USF (+7)

Wait – What?  I’m curious as to what this game opened at before the season started (and after last week’s Louisville game) because Florida State only laying 7 at USF (yes, USF is 3-0) seems like a gift after they were utterly HUMILIATED at Louisville.  I hate to pick a team I just lost with, but

Take the Seminoles and lay the 7 for $50

Central Michigan @ Virginia (+3)

Wow…Another FBS Power 5 Team getting points at HOME against a MAC team.   I’ll take the Chippewas on the road in this one.

Take the Chippewas and lay the 3 for $25

Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati (-18.5)

Cincinnati is a good team and has had some extra time off having played two Thursdays ago.  I have a nephew at Miami of Ohio and I have received ZERO scouting reports, so they must not be very good.

Take Cincinnati and lay the 18.5 points for $25

Texas A&M @ Arkansas (+6)

A battle of un-beatens in the SEC WEST!!!  Why isn’t this game getting more billing?  I don’t know, but I like the HOGS getting points at home!  I’m not saying they win, but Brett’s crew keeps it close….

Take Arkansas and the 6 for $25

Florida @ Tennessee (-6.5)

This game got interesting when Florida’s starting QB went down last Saturday.  A team that hasn’t beaten a rival in the last 10 tries has to lay points at home.   Is this the year Butch Jones and the Vols get past the Gators?  And can they beat them by more than a TD?  This is very much “Must Win Territory” for Coach Jones and the Cremesicles if the SEC East Title is to be claimed in the name of the Orange!   I’m not saying the Cremesicles are gonna’ lose, but

Take the Gators and the 6.5 for $25

Nebraska @ Northwestern (+7)

I believe this is another Nebraska Season of Revenge Game that the Huskers just happen to have on their list of things to do.  Northwestern can’t seem to move the brown object known as the football on offense and it’s doubtful they’ll be able to slow down the Husker Offense.  Mike Riley smiles at another presser post game conference.    

Take the Huskers and lay the 7 for $75

LSU @ Auburn (+3.5)

The Hatter (Miles) and the Disaster(Malzhan) square off in another SEC West Showdown of sorts…Whoever loses is really, REALLY, REALLY going to be Numero Uno (El Jefe!) on the Electric Chair of Death List come Monday.  I still think the Hatter has tricks up his sleeve and the Disaster will be the next National Championship Coach that Auburn fires.

Take LSU and lay the 3.5 for $25

PSU @ Michigan (-16)

This is a tricky, tricky spread.  If Michigan hadn’t just dick-tripped over themselves against Colorado, I’d be more inclined to lay the points here.  PSU’s offense isn’t Colorado’s, at least what I’ve seen of it.  However, that doesn’t mean they won’t score points.  IF this one was in Happy Valley (at night), I’d be inclined to take the points.  But at home, I think Michigan gets back on the right side of the ATS train in this game, albeit it’s probably going to be settled in the 4th quarter.

Take Michigan and lay the 16 for $50


3 team parlay pays 6-1

Seminoles - Michigan – Huskers for $50


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