Friday, October 18, 2013

FMQ Week #8 - There IS Life After PSU...Just Call Us "Spoilers - North"

Well, I believe that I’m officially over the emotional part of the loss to PSU, but I’m still not quite sure where this season is going.   If you had a chance to read Tuesday’s post, you are now intimately aware with exactly how awful Michigan is at running on 1st Down.  Most teams, as noted, given a complete lack of success (at whatever they are trying) simply give up after a certain number of attempts.  That’s called, “SANITY”.  And we all know, the definition of “INSANITY” is:  Keep doing the exact same thing (that isn’t working) and expect different results.

That is Michigan’s offensive game plan in a nutshell.  However, there has been TREMENDOUS Amount of publicity, sports talk, etc on how egg-headed and stubborn Michigan’s offensive play-calling has been.  After reading the post game presser and Monday’s press conference wrap, it sounded a “little” like Fred came around on his way of thinking about the offense, but was still ready to say that the team wasn’t “executing the plays the way they needed to be executed.”  And there’s this from Michael Schofield:
On what it's like to see the run game struggle ... "Well, it's painful, especially in a loss like that. We just have to take what we can from that film and learn as much as we can and improve. We can't let Penn State beat us twice, like coach keeps saying. We have to come out next week ready to go."

Well, as my kids say, “No Dip, Sherlock…Tell me something I don’t know…”  You guys have said that you’ve had a great week of practice every week and are ready to go…I’m not buying it at this point. 

What I need to hear is that Fred and Barney are going to change the playbook around to fit the talent vs. playing an offense that will NEVER FUNCTION the way you want it to with the players you have.  In fact, if we don’t see something different against Indiana…Well, it’s beyond stubborn and just plain stupid.  And that will lead me to not only question whether or not Barney will be here in a year’s time…But I will also need to figure out whether or not Fred is a keeper as well.  Yeah, he’s recruiting the crap out of Michigan and the country…but if you’re not going to use the Ferrari talent you have and try to drive what you do have like a three on the tree pick-up truck…well, we may have no choice but to run Fred out of Slate Quarry and Bedrock entirely…..
And another thing completely unrelated but somewhat questionable in a way:  What’s with the Figgie line that ESPN and others are putting on the field???  Don’t get me wrong, I like graphics.  But, has it been there all season and have I just missed it?  I noticed it a lot on Saturday and I don’t think I like it….I equate it to the female belly button.   If you’ve made it that far…well… you already have “two first downs” in your hands at least and you should really keep going.  As a fan I would rather not know that “I’m close to a score” and it’ll send the exact type of wrong mental vibes to a conservative coach that doesn’t need any more thoughts of slowing down.  He needs to hear fans thinking, “SCORE NOW!  GO DEEP!”  and stuff like that….

Just sayin’…..

There’s value this week and we might be taking a few more than we’re laying in…I received an e-mail asking me about my “system”.  While I do refer to it as a system, it’s objective and subjective array of information that helps me figure out which way to bet the game and how much to bet.  In short:

Money Management:
-Odd games bet, whenever possible, but I’ve been relaxing that rule recently in favor or a larger spread in betting units.
-No more than 30% of total bankroll in play

Determining who to bet and number of units.
Start with a neutral bet of 4 units. (Never bet 2 units unless in parlay, so fewest number of units bet in game is 3)
No more than 7 units of action on any one game

What is record of each team ATS (Against The Spread)?
1.     Favor team that has better ATS record.  If record excellent, then add extra unit to bet
2.    Who is home?  Favor home team, especially if a revenge game.  But only for ½ to 3 points or so.  I don’t think Vegas values this nearly enough…
3.    PF/PA Ratios for Favorite and Dog.  IF the PF/PA ratios added together and divided by 2 is larger than 1.5, add a unit. 2 units if the ratio is over 2.  See the math below to get a better idea of what I’m doing here.  Again, it’s not an indicator for who will win, but it gives me additional confidence to bet the max units…..
4.    What are the states of mind of the teams playing?
5.    Who’s the coach?  Are they merciless?  Is the team full speed only?  Basketball on grass?  Hoke ball?

6.    Make the bet.

So, looking at the first game this week:

Bama (-28) @ Arkansas:  Bama is rolling…Arkansas is reeeeeling under Beliema…add all the fancy math-work in from above and you have an easy bet laying $70…
PF ratio:  Bama PF233:Ark PF 98=2.37!     PA Ratio:    ARK PA - 158/Bama - 68 = 2.32! 

Bama 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. Arkansas
Take Bama and lay the 28 for $70

USC @ domers (-3):  I really can’t remember the last time this game mattered and I was actually “excited” to watch it.  I guess it’s more interesting now that Orgeron is the head coach and maybe he can orchestrate an upset….but I’m not sure I want to bet on it with only a 3 point differential to work with…PASS

WSU @ Oregon (-37):  I hope everyone is starting to see how this works.  Based on the system, we already KNOW that Oregon is wicked strong ATS (7-0 last 7) But WSU is 5-2 ATS in the last 7, which isn’t too shabby, either.  So, let’s assume that we’re going to lay the points. 
PF:  341 (that’s sick, by the way, Duckys):209 = 1.63    PA:  177:83:  2.13  (WOW!)

Here’s why, so far anyway, I think the Ducks are WAY underrated.  They have held their opponents to 83 points and hung 341 points back on them.  The PF/PA ratio is hugely in favor of laying the points and maxing the units.  However, let’s look at the HTH matchup over the last 5 or so games….WSU is a surprising 4-1 vs. OREGON ATS!  So, what do we do with this nugget of info?
With Leach in his first year and having never been to Autzen , I just can’t go against the Quackers, but I’m not going to max the units as the Ducks are more than likely going to let me down at some point.
Take the Ducks and lay the 37 for $60

LSU (-7) @ Ole Miss:  This one is a little tougher.  I like the Hatter – always have.  I think Ole Miss is slightly overmatched in this one on both sides of the ball.  But what does the math tell us here?  I see BOTH teams are quite good against the number:  LSU 4-2-1 and  Ole Miss 6-2…Not a lot to make me lean one way or the other there…what about the math?
PF Ratio:  253:174 = 1.45    PA Ratio:    154: 167 = 0.922. 

Okay, this is where this ratio comes in handy.   I think this game is still worthy of a $40 bet on LSU as they are outscoring Ole Miss quite handily, but PA is a no tell, and LSU’s DEFENSE sucked early in the season and has improved dramatically since Georgia.  And there’s no way I can put more action on it based on the above.  But is it worth the $40?

Ole Miss is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings against LSU!!!!  Wow….That’s impressive.  Still, knock $10 off because I simply can’t bet Ole Miss here even though the trend over the last 11 meetings says I should. 

Take LSU and lay the 8 for $30
Gators @ Mizzou (-3):  This game is interesting…Mizzou QB hurt but the Gators lost another piece of their offense now that their Tailback is out for the season.  Mizzou is hungry and will be looking to win at home and take control of the SEC east.  The PF’s and PA are kind of throw aways for this game. It happens when the guy responsible for all the PF’s for Mizzou goes out with a shoulder injury.  Still, I like Mizzou at home here if for no other reason than Mizzou wants to prove to the SEC that A&M isn’t the only “real deal” to come out of the Big 12.

Take Mizzou and lay the 3 for $30
UCLA (+5) @ Stanford:  Everyone knows I like to ride Stanford, but the numbers and trends may surprise in this game.  I was actually leaning towards UCLA and the points here, so let’s draw it up that way. 

PF:  229:217 = 1.05     PA:  133:91 = 1.46
I’m leery of the PF ratio even though UCLA has the favorable PA ratio, I’m not inclined to bet anymore units, but have a sneaky feeling the 5 point spread is going to be in the realm of possibility. 

UCLA is currently 5-0 ATS…That I LIKE.  Stanford has been a disappointing 2-4 ATS….That, if I’m leaning UCLA I like, too.  So, even though I think the Cardinal has their backs against the proverbial wall, they win a close one and UCLA covers. 
Take UCLA and the 5 for $40

Indiana (-9) @ Michigan:  Once you see the data for this game, you’ll know why so many gamers simply don’t bet Michigan.  There’s no trend in the last 9 games for Michigan meaning that they are around 0.500 ATS and they are “up and down”  with no more than a 1 game trend in either direction.  Indiana is the same.  I would “lean” towards Michigan at Home here, but I’m not ready to go there just yet.   Let’s look at the math (assuming we’re betting Michigan):
PF:  234:250  = 0.936   PA:     197:140 = 1.407

Yikes…..This is telling me that with a ratio below 1 I should really be looking at taking Indiana and the points here.   Michigan is scoring less points than IU and they are giving up fewer…but not enough to move the needle and the defense isn’t “OWNING” games…So now what?  I’m certainly not betting the $40.  We’re down to $30.  But which way?  Michigan may be up-down meaning they should have a big “up week” at home after the disaster in Happy Valley….what else?
Michigan is 6-0 in the last 6 against IU and 3-3 ATS.  It’s a coin flip…So, I’ll

Take Michigan and lay the 9 for $30
Starting Bank:         $1,323.50

Total Bet:                  $260
BANK:                       $1063.50

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