Friday, October 11, 2013

FMQ Week # 7 - Where Oh Where Did Half The Season Go?

That was a fast first 6 weeks of the ole College Football Season…Even though due to a quirk in the calendar we will actually get 2 extra weeks (when you include the conference play-offs) of college football this year, which is why everyone has two byes.  Yeah, it’s stretched out a little….but after 6 weeks of games and it being the 2nd Friday in October, I guess it kind of feels like halfway to me…

Couple of things I didn’t get to comment on in Monday’s wrap was how irked I was with the Georgia – Tennessee game.  If you didn’t see it, Tennessee fumbled through the endzone in OT, negating any chance to score and by rule, put the ball on the 20.  What an incredible flip-flop of fortunes and it got me to thinking about what would be “fair” here.  When you fumble in the end zone and it goes out of bounds, the opposing team gets the ball by rule on a touchback to their 20 yard line and they have to drive 80 yards to score a TD or however many yards to kick a field goal.  In OT, Georgia got the ball in “gimme” range of the Figgie after the fumble and it was a no brainer what was going to happen next. 

In OT, the rule sucks.  I’m not advocating that Georgia should have got the ball back on the opposing 20, but there needs to be something that doesn’t penalize the team that’s about the score not only the loss of possession, but more or less handing the opposing team the win without the defense being given a chance….maybe possession at the 50?  Does that make sense?  Yeah, you lose the ball, but at least the other team still has to move it about 20-25 yards to get into any kind of scoring range.  Otherwise, it seems like too big of a penalty…..If I was on the receiving end of it, great.  But if I am the team fumbling…well…That sucked for Tennessee.

Another issue that has bothered me and it’s going to continue to manifest itself or get to the point where is so ubiquitous that the NCAA and schools are going to have to do something about it:  Jadaveon Clowney sitting on his own.  If you haven’t heard, he benched himself last week due to “sore ribs” right before game time.  Usually, that’s a doctor’s call and the team has a whole lot more time to prepare in a particular player’s absence if said player can’t go.  In this case, it sounded a lot like Clowney just figured, “I’m not 100% and I don’t want to go out there and get hurt anymore.”  Which, if I’m Clowney, I kind of get and I don’t have a huge issue with that.  If he think he’s less able than the guy behind him to give everything the team needs, fine.  And He’s more than established himself in the eyes of his future employers, regardless of whatever some of these idiots are coming out and saying. (Which, if you ask me are a “BUNCH” of NFL GM’s trying to throw Red Herrings out to everyone else to show they “aren’t interested in a 280 lbs, 6’7” quitting slacker”….Yeah, Right!)  So, the question is, how long will it take before other “stars” begin to see what happens to the likes of Georgia’s Marshall when they go down and figure, “Hey, I know what my draft and NFL prospects are and I’m not about to go out on that field and screw up my chances.”  My guess:  It starts to happen a lot sooner rather than later and a lot more often, especially in the high contact/high probability of injury positions.  So, Mr. AD’s across the country that soundly rejected the APU’s concerns…what are you gonna do then?  Will you please come to the table and discuss solutions that somehow protect the livelihood of these individuals while letting them play without fear of losing everything?  Of course, you will need to leave the NCAA out of it all, somehow.  Otherwise…this is going to get worse and cannot possibly end well….

I know I will get a lot of e-mail questioning the “integrity” or the “Character” of Clowney…Hey, I get that, too.  But at the same time, you have to be able to see both sides in this deal.  And if you’re a projected 1st round or #1 pick?  Well….there ought to be some sort of protection.  Maybe, and I’m just spit ballin’ outside the box here:   Why not have the NFL write these guys an insurance policy in the event they get hurt?  There’s mock draft boards all over the place and it should be easy to figure out who’s where and what their “expected” value is in the NFL for their initial season.  Insure them for that amount on September 1 and go out and play you junior year butt off without worry.  That would at least offer them some protection….Isn’t that simple enough?

Ho-kay…There’s picks galore that I “like” this week, but nothing much that really jumps out at me and says, “You need to bet this game the full 7 units…hard!”  So, with that being said, I’m going to look at additional match-ups and spread myself a little thinner this week….but still keep in line with about 30% of our total bankroll in action.

Missouri (+11) @ Georgia:  This line opened at 11 and has since move down, but when I saw it, well, I liked it immediately.  I don’t think Gurley is going to play and while Aaron Murray can definitely carry the load….Missouri is no pushover this year.  The Dawgs have been playing like they’re hanging on and I see a little value in the Tigers.

Take Mizzou and the 11 points for $40.
IU (+10) @ Sparty:  Indiana is a tale of two teams.  They give up tons of yards and then they are able to light up the scoreboard with three TD’s in a matter of 3 minutes….That was last week at PSU.  Does that make them good enough to hang with Sparty in East Lansing?  AS much as I want to take the Hoosiers and the points here…I can’t.   But I don’t trust Sparty, either…PASS
Stanford (Opend:-3.5  FRIDAY:  -8) @ Utah:  I should have jumped on the 3.5…..How come no one is talking about Kyle Wittingham for the USC and Texas (soon to be) vacancies?  He seems like the up and comer that could help either one of those programs.  Even though Stanford let me down last week against the Huskies… I don’t think they do it two weeks in a row…..

Take Stanford and lay the 8 for $40
Bama (-27) @ Kentucky:  Okay.  There’s a gimme on the board.  Look for Bama to possibly cover this spread in the 1st half and then simply hang on in the 2nd

Take Bama and lay the 27.5 for $70
Quack Attack (-13.5) @ Washington:  If you watched the Husky-Cardinal game last week, I think you saw a hugely emotional game go against Washington in the end on what may or may not have been a bad call.  It did look like an incomplete pass to me…But that means that it’ll be tough for the Huskies to get up again this week….even with the help of their home crowd against a hated rival…And the Quack Attack has not let me down this year ATS….

Take the Ducks and lay the 14 for $60
Nebraska (-24) @ Purdue:  Do you know who Purdue has played closer than anyone when they’ve lost to this year?  The domers….But I don’t see them hanging with what looks to be a quietly revived Cornsucker squad seeking B1G respect….

Take the Cornsuckers and lay the 24 for $30
Oklahoma (-13.5) @ Texas: “The Red River Shoot-Out!”  Well, if this is Mack Brown’s do or die game…I hate to almost say what I think the outcome is going to be.  I know all the clichĂ©s in a rivalry game…but sooner or later, the talent comes out.  And Brown has lost this game SPECTACULARLY in the past….

Take the Sooners and lay the 14 for $40
Baylor (-17) @ K-State:  Wait…What?  This spread is only 17?  I mean, I know it’s last year’s Big 12 Champions playing at home…but this K-State team lost to the BIZON!!!  So, is Baylor for real or does Vegas know something we don’t?

Take Baylor and lay the 17 for $40
Michigan (OPENED: -5  FRIDAY:  -2.5) @ PSU:  I was frankly surprised when I saw this spread and figured it would be double digits that Michigan had to lay...  I know we lost BADLY down in Happy Valley during the “DarkRod” years, but prior to that, Michigan was 5-1 in their house...  And normally, it was a DOMINATING win when we did win.  And the line movement?  Someone is betting the Blue Kittys HEAVY….. But Michigan is not intimidated by the White Outs or any of the other Happy Valley Horse hooey that the Blue Kitties can throw at them.  I’ll be happy to take the other side of whoever is making the line move here…

Take Michigan and lay the 2.5 for $50

 Starting Bank:         $1,313.50
Total Bet:                  $370

BANK:                       $943.50

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