Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Michigan Makes the Frozen 4!

IT’S GREAT TO BE A MICHIGAN WOLVERINE! After seeing the team in person this year (Thanks Chris K!) and watching them a couple of times on the tube, tracking them as they backed into the CCHA Championship when all Notre Dame had to do was win once at home, I had mixed feelings going into the NCCA Hockey tournament. I mean, Hockey is a fickle sport and you simply can’t handicap it, no matter how hard you try. But Red has them back to College Hockey’s ultimate event. Next Thursday, April 7th, is a Big Match-up for the Wolverines against (Denver) Correction: North Dakota in Minneapolis…And thanks to Dean G, I have an invitation to go. But I also have other commitments that will keep me from attending. It would be great to see this team win the whole thing. They play with a lot of heart and grit. I just wish it always showed up on the ice… If we can get past Denver into the final game, anything’s possible.

Speaking of handicapping, did you here about this guy? Somebody had the (audacity) foresight to bet VCU at 5,000 to 1 odds for $10 bucks back before the season started. That’s $50,000, folks, for a $10 speculation. The Vegas Hilton had VCU at 9,999 to 1 at one point. But no bets. Granted, VCU has to win the thing, but still…I wouldn’t mind having that ticket in my hand right now. VCU has to win 6 games which is what the old Vegas odds makers are counting on. Thinking out loud as a gambler, IF VCU makes the final game, the sports book may want to have a little talk with you and offer you a little less for your marker and you might be wise to take it if the offer was say, $20,000? Anything less, say $15,000 and I think I would have to decline. At that point, you could simply bet ½ of the $35,000 difference ($50,000 winner -$15,000 offer = $35,000) on Kentucky/Uconn winner ($17,500 total wager) and you will end up with either $17,500 or $32,500 in your pocket with only a $2,510 “total” bet and be further ahead. (That would be the difference between the casino’s offer and your championship bet – with either outcome). That’s 6 to 1 on the $17,500 and 13 to 1 on the $32,500. Of course, this implies that you have $17,500 laying around…and I haven’t figured in the vig and I’m assuming you can get a money line bet that is close to neutral and just lay it on the Kentucky/UConn winner.

If the offer was $20K and you declined, the new bet would be $15,000 ($50K-$20K = $30K) and you’d be looking at a net gain of either $15,000 or $35,000, or a $5,000 bet for $20,000. That’s a worse deal for you because it's a potential $5,000 loss albeit with better odds on th $35K (4 to 1 and 7 to 1) and it makes a difference to the casino…They are either paying you $15,000 - their first offer or $35,000…And they might take you up on the counter offer and you would be wise to simply take the $20G’s… No more gambling. And that’s a good thing. Too much math? No worries…I’m not entirely sure I’ve got it right, either. But if I had that ticket, you can bet that there would be a deep dive into this with about 10 spreadsheets doing the math on everything when I walk into the casino explaining the situation. That’s how you need to think about it when you’re holding a ticket like that and you have them by the “short hairs”.

If VCU wins one more game and that guy is probably done gambling and thinking about how to secure some dough.


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