Friday, October 27, 2017

FMQ Week #9 - CFP, A Tribute to Ufer & Who Can You Trust?

Without Love, The Cardinal Suck…
In Case You Missed It:  Stanford played Oregon State without Bryce Love last night and narrowly avoided an upset loss to the Beavers.  In fact, they would have lost if the Beavers hadn’t fumble late in the game trying to run out the clock, giving the Cadinal a chance to score.  And they needed to convert a 4th and 10 in the process of scoring their last TD.  You can read about it all here:
More CFP
Some of you sent feedback from Wednesday’s CFP analysis that was your own view on what the CFP would do with a one-loss Domer team and how television ratings or media hype over a 1-loss Domer team would be too much for the committee to ignore.  Long story short:  If the Domers win out, they’re somehow in…
I get all that.  My Point Is:  Whatever the committee does, someone is going to get screwed, just like PSU last season.  But what faster way for the CFP to go to either 6 or 8 teams than for someone like the Domers (or a 1-loss Bama – yes, I believe there’s a scenario) to be left out of the CFP?
And we’re going there.  Sooner rather than later. 
Reasons:  As always, Follow The Money…

Disney Owned ESPN is still bleeding lots of red and losing subscribers as fans (especially millennials) find new ways to watch sports.  And ESPN paid BILLIONS to own and televise the CFP games (that have NOT been ratings successes on New Year’s Eve).  ESPN is scrambling for new ways to find additional revenue.  Adding regular season games to the schedule is only going to generate so much.  But when you look at any play-off game in any sport, the revenue jumps by multiples.  (The NCAA Tourney is a great example of being able to over-charge 30 second ads) Take the last 2 season’s advertising rates for the CFP Semi Finals and Championship Games:
ESPN charged about $1 million for a 30-second commercial during last season’s college football national championship, according to Brandon Korody, a manager of data strategy at Navigate. This year, Navigate estimates ESPN charged between $1.2 million and $1.3 million for a 30-second spot. Official sponsorships for the College Football Playoff cost between $14 million and $16 million each, the Sports Business Journal reported. An ESPN spokesperson declined FOXBusiness.com’s request for comment on the cost of commercial spots and sponsorships.
Add 4 more Quarterfinal games that you can charge 3-4 times more for an advertising minute (regular season CFP games are around $250,000/minute) is a really quick way to generate additional cash…A Typical college football game runs between 70-80 commercials per game (for the math impaired, that’s 40 minutes of your life each and every game that you’re never gonna’ get back).  Figure these play-off games would squeeze in another 10 spots and you’re talking a LOT OF DOUGH!!  Not to mention getting additional Sponsors for those games and ESPN can probably generate an additional $100-$125 million dollars per game, or roughly half a billion dollar pay-day from adding 4 additional play-off games... 
That ain’t chump change…
And the fan base will want it and schools that make the field in a 6 or 8 team play-off will find it hard to turn down the cash
While I agree that the entire season should be the play-off, this will inevitability come to pass…The REAL losers in all this?  The antiquated, take it to the trash heap bowl system (where viewership is also in decline) that is yet one more parasite on a sport that has too many people sucking at the teat already.  Get rid of the useless, meaningless end of season scrimmages.  Especially as more and more junior and senior marquis players opt out of playing for fear of injury.   It’s long overdue…
How On Earth Can You Be Optimistic About Basketball?
You know Michigan lost Walton and Wilson, right?  And that was like what, 30-40% of the offense??  Sparty is going to own the B1G!  Bridges came back – you know that right?  Or did you write that after a martini lunch on Wednesday?

Oh Ye of Little Faith!
Lest you forget, Beilein nailed two grad transfers this off-season that are going to immediately contribute and, knowing Beilein, he found guys that will mesh well into his system.
The guy I’m most excited about:  Former Ohio Guard Jaaron Simmons! (That extra “a” in his name is going to drive me nuts once the MMPG takes over).  If you haven’t seen it, do yourself a favor and watch this highlight video:
What’s really cool about this?  Half the time, Jaaron is creating his own space to shoot the three.  Can you imagine what he’ll be able to do when he’s getting fed open looks where he can actually set, square his shoulders and shoot?  Yep, I’m not worried.  Have Faith in the Beilein!!!
Happier Times…
The Climb – Part VI: “Pick 6” Woodson’s Miracle Interception in East Lansing
In Honor of The 36th Anniversary of Ufer’s Passing
Yesterday, October 26th, marked the passing of the one and only Robert Frost Ufer, who went to Football’s Valhalla to join Fielding H. Yost and the other great Michigan Men in 1981.  I’d like to think that my spirit and writing style has a little bit of Ufer’s Blatant Homerism in it (stop laughing – We all KNOW it does!) and I would like to think he would have been a fan of The MMQ! 

Here’s to the Ufe!  Watch and enjoy and, Hey, Most Importantly:
God Bless Every-One Of Your Cotton Pickin’ Maize and Blue Hearts!
 







“Michigan Replay” Tribute to Ufer!
Brandstatter and Bo pay tribute to the one and only!
The Story Behind the Scoring Horn and Some Great Ufer Calls Including INDIANA!!
Ufer’s Greatest Speech and the 1980 Team of Destiny!
Without a doubt, this was one of the all-time fire up and emotional speeches the Ufe ever gave!

“South Carolina and Notre Dame were Flukes!”
THE FMQ
The Play-Off Begins!  With at least 3 games on the slate that are potentially “Eliminators”, the November (might as well be) elimination games have begun!  Emotions are high and so are the stakes…
I hate late season betting.  It really is kind of coin flip time and any insight you have is sometimes a huge waste of time.  I really blew the Michigan call (but I was in the majority – which doesn’t make me feel any better. 

Loser…
So, once again, I have major TRUST ISSUES and its sort of a how do I feel about Team “X” this week and if there’s no certaintyFlip a coin.   
On to this week’s picks:
Virginia @ Pitt (-3): I had to look at this spread twice to make sure I read it right.  A win gets the Cavaliers bowl eligible. Meanwhile, Pitt is 1-3 in the conference and had two of its players get in a fight over a game of Madden earlier this week.  Consider this a “Vegas Gift” as I really like Virginia to pull the “upset”.
Take Virginia and the 3 for $40
FSU @ BC (+8):  Interesting spread in an interesting game.  FSU is sitting at 2-4 and the media lets Fisher off the hook but slams Harbaugh for not being a good enough coach when the replacement QB is called on to win games.  Anyway, I’m not sure who should be more insulted:  A resurgent BC that’s playing offense again or FSU that pre-season would have been at least a 20 point favorite.  Does lightning strike twice on Friday night?  Why not...
Take BC and the 8 for $25
Wiscy @ Illinois (+23.5):  The Illini are only 2-5 against the number..  And they don’t have much of a defense.  And are starting 14 freshmen… I think that’s really all you need to know.  
Take Wiscy and lay the 23.5 for $40
OSU @ WVU (+7):  ELIMINATOR!  The cowboys won a low scoring snot-knocker last week in Texas and have to go on the road again.  WVU is getting a lot of hype, but they still can’t play defense.  Morganton is a nightmare of a place to play, but no defense is still no defense.  Assuming the pokes show up on the offensive side of the ball, I like their chances to cover the number. 
Take OSU and lay the 7 for $35
Texas @ Baylor (+10):  This is a game that Texas just needs to go win.  The 0-7 Bears have been getting a little better recently and are putting some fear into opponents late in games.  But Texas has better athletes and should manage on the road. I don’t like laying points, but Baylor is not good.
Take Texas and lay the 10 for $25
NCSU @ Domers (-8):  ELIMINATOR!!!  Each of these teams has 1-loss and cannot afford another.  NCSU has had two weeks to get ready for this!  And the Domers just blew out one of their many arch rivals and look pretty good right now.  This is a revenge game for the Domers as well, but I like NCSU getting points.
Take NCSU and the 8 for $30
TCU @ Iowa State (+7):  TCU has been thumping people, but ISU is the new “darling” 5-2 surprise.  Water eventually seeks its own level.  All the talking heads like this to be a closer game than the spread…I think TCU will win this game walking away.
Take TCU and lay the 7 for $35
THE WORLD’S LARGEST OUTDOOR COCKTAIL PARTY!!



Georgia vs Gatorland (+14.5):  The way Rivalry games should be played!  Again, that many points? In a rivalry game?  McElwain is under fire.  Kirby Smart is the 2nd coming of Satan.  Florida’s seniors haven’t lost to Georgia and could go 4-0.  I suspect Florida might be ready for this one.
Take Gatorland and the 14.5 for $25
MSU @ Texas A&M (+2):  What does Vegas know that I don’t?   Other than the Aggies have to play at 11:00 AM local time, which is a small concern...  Again, I had to really slow down and read this spread to make sure I was reading it correctly.  A&M has been playing a LOT BETTER FOOTBALL since UCLA and hung close with Bama.  Miss State has been on and off last couple of weeks.  I’ll take the dog at home...   
Take the Aggies and the 2 for $30
Sparty @ NWU (+3):  Vegas knows.  Vegas always knows…  And Sparty has been doing it the sparty way with smoke and mirrors.  Northwestern showing a lot more of what it should have been doing earlier in the season.  I like the home team.    
Take Northwestern and the 3 for $30
Nebraska @ Purdue (-5):  If you would have called me on Sunday or Monday morning and would have told me that Nebraska was getting points in this game, I would have told you that you should really stop drinking in the morning.  But here we are.  Vegas knows…I’ll take the home favorite and lay the points.
Take Purdue and lay the 5 for $25
Georgia Tech @ Clemson (-15.5):  Georgia Tech and their option offense has given everyone they’ve played shit-fits the entire season.  Clemson hasn’t played since the Cuse loss two weeks ago and probably can’t wait to get back on the field.  Still, that doesn’t make managing Tech’s offense any easier.  Clemson wins, but Tech keeps it closer than 15.5...
Take the Bumble Bees and the 15.5 for $25
Minnesota @ Iowa (-7.5):  I wish the Gophers could stop the run.  Night Game at Kinnick.  Have fun with that, Gophers.  This is a tricky spread as Iowa is happy to play a low scoring, ball control offense affair.  I see this being a big slobber-knocker ground game.  Therefore, because anyone can get lucky, I’ll take the dog and the points.
Take the Gophers and the 7.5 for $25
Penn State @ suckeyes (-7):  ELIMINATOR!  (Maybe) Line has moved DOWN to 6, meaning people like the Lions….This game will decide (more or less) the B1G East.  And to a lesser extent, the B1G overall.  The higher ranked team on the road getting points. Weird, but again, you can’t get anything past Vegas.  The suckeyes have pretty much destroyed everyone since the Laters Loss and Penn State is more or less for real.  Revenge (on both sides – suckeyes losing heads up and PSU for getting a CFP snub) will play a factor and PSU might keep it close…
The really BIG PROBLEM for PSU is that all the “JB Hunt Truck Drivers” that will occupy the shoe will have had an extra 3 and half hours to imbibe gallons of 150-proof suckeye juice and they will be FIRED UP!!!  PSU is in for the fight of the season.
Take the nittany lions and the 7 for $25
Rutgers @ Michigan (-24):  Another double digit spread that I have no idea where it came from.  When you’re a bettor, you’re not supposed to look at the immediate results from the prior week, but rather look at trends and established data on the season.  Taking that into account, I still don’t see how Michigan covers that number.  And I think I’ve only been right on Michigan once this season…so I should probably TAKE Michigan…Nope. 
Take Rutgers and the 24 for $25
PARLAY!
3 Bet/Team Parlay:   6-1
Wiscy – OSU - TCU:   $50
Etc.
World Series Game 2 was one for the ages!  8 Home Runs in Extra Innings???  Are you kidding me?  Hope you were able to stay up…I’m liking the Astros more at this point as their bats are waking up.  But it will still be weird if they win and we see Verlander holding that trophy with an “H” on his hat….
And yet one MORE REASON to HATE EMMERT!!!
The NCAA had a program under Miles Brand that helped the youth basketball movement from slipping into exactly what has transpired over the last 10 years.  Brand died, Emmert took over, and the program wasn’t kept active and funded under Emmert.  I bring up Emmert and his extraordinarily stupid moves and mindless decisions SO OFTEN and I continue to wonder what a guy has to do in order to get fired at the NCAA?
Apparently, Harbaugh Was WAY Too Kind When Discussing The Conditions At Purdue
Speight’s father speaks out on what a shit-show the conditions were at Purdue.  And a X-Ray tech asks for an “Insurance Card?”  Are you F@#$%ing KIDDING ME?  And then they refuse to turn on the siren in the ambulance on when transporting Speight to the hospital?
Purdue – You should be ashamed of yourself…
Whiskey – Tango – Foxtrot

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