Friday, November 22, 2013

FMQ Week #13 - Do Or Die!

“Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to Do or Die…” 
Lord Tenyson – The Charge of the Light Brigade

I find myself getting more out of High School English as I get older than when I was taking it.  It seemed like a huge waste at the time as I was reading stuff that was written so long ago by people I could care less about…However, as I’ve aged, I find myself remembering a lot more and better understanding cultural references to the great writings of yesteryear…
And if that particular passage by Lord Tenyson is coming back to me, it also means that The FMQ must be in a world of hurt and has his back against the wall with only three betting weeks left before the Bowls start….Where did the season go?  We spend an eternity waiting for it to get here and then it’s gone so quickly…..

The FMQ is in the green, but nowhere near doubling up.  With one betting week left before Thanksgiving Rivalry Week (where historically, it’s tough to make money), this is the weekend that is similar to the last Daily Double in the 2nd Round of Jeopardy.  You’re opponent that’s ahead of you almost has you doubled up in money and it’s time to bet it all, Alex….Do we have the guts and can we find any value in this weekend’s games to take a big gamble?
Let’s have a look….

Illini (-7) @ Purdue:  I should have been betting AGAINST Purdue all year.  They only have 1 win ATS and that’s enough for me to get a little crazy with the Illini here..
Take the Illini and lay the 7 for $75

Sparty @ NWU(+7):  This one is tricky.  Sparty should win this thing walking away…But something tells me that the Purple Kittys won’t go down without a fight…Still, I would prefer if the Kittys were getting double digits…I have to PASS
Boston College @ Maryland(PK):  You mean, all I have to do is pick the winner without laying or taking any points?  This should be a gimme….So,
Take Maryland for $60

BYU @ Domers (-1):  A Battle of the Independents…Domers (JEEZ I HATE THESE GUYS!) Nix is out on defense and it moved the line….I wanted to take the domers at home here in this one…but now, I’m really not so sure…Therefore…PASS
Indiana (+35) @ suckeyes:  I saw this spread and realized that the suckeyes will be looking ahead BIG TIME to next week and the playbook will more than likely get pared way down heading into “The Game”.  I also think the Indiana has a bit of a chip on their shoulder and has something to prove.  They don’t want to be anyone’s “Style Points Bitch” this late in the season…
Take IU and the 35 for $75

Wiscy (-16) @ Minnesota:  Wiscy, on the other hand, has been doing nothing but CLOBBERING teams with their running attack and seeing as how Michigan’s last impressive rushing performance happened to be against the Gophers, well, I have a feeling that this spread might not actually be enough in this game….
Take Wiscy and lay the 16 for $100

Oregon (-20) @ Arizona:  The loveable Quack Attack also believes they have a shot at getting back into the NC fray if they can win out…So don’t look for them to have any mercy on the Wildcats…

Take Oregon and lay the 20 for $100
Baylor @ Okie State (+10):  I want to be a Baylor Believer, but this spread is troubling.  Clearly, Okie State is better than it’s record and I frankly still can’t figure out how they lost to WVU…I think with the Big 12 Championship on the line, Okie State loses, but it’s closer than the 10 points the prognosticators are forecasting…

Take Okie State and the 10 for $50
Texas A&M @ LSU(+5):  LSU getting 5 at home against Johnny Football.  Not sure that’s enough as the Tigers have failed to impress me this year. 

Take Texas AM and lay the 5 for $65
Michigan (+6) @ Iowa:  Can you believe that pre-season, Michigan had a “futures” spread against Iowa where they were laying 15 points????  I’m not making that up.  That means that Michigan has more or less played themselves into a 21 point swing in the spread this season against an Iowa team that has proven to be a lot better than they were supposed to be.  And Michigan never plays well at Kinnick…

Take Iowa and lay the 6 for $25

PARLAY!  (6 to 1)
Oregon-Wiscy-Illini for $50

Starting Bank:         $1,144.50
Total Bet:                  $600

BANK:                       $544.50

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