Thursday, August 29, 2013

FMQ - 2013 Kick-Off!


I have to admit that I was getting a little antsy this off-season.  Don’t know why.  Maybe it’s because I honestly believe that Michigan’s program is ready to turn a page in the era of Michigan Football and put the last 6 years finally, unequivocally, behind them…  
Or it could be the booze talking.

No, I’m not drunk, but it is Wednesday evening, I’m traveling for work, so why not set up the ole computer at the local pub and write from the bar?  Yeah, exactly.  Why not indeed?
So, I have several picks that are super intriguing to me and some that are more of a “Well, that LOOKS interesting, but IT COULD BE A TRAP!”

So, against my inner gambling demon I’m going to try to limit the number of games I bet this year to 5 or 3.  Preferably three really good picks….Problem is the opening week of college football, with only a few exceptions, is kind of like a box of chocolates:  You never know what you’re gonna’ get….
So, let’s look at this week’s slate of games:

UNC @ the Gamecocks of USC (-11):  I was a little baffled with this spread.  I know that USC doesn’t have a proven offense, but North Carolina is just…not good.  A quick look at last year’s stats confirmed that suspicion and the fact that USC is bringing back THAT defense with THAT guy…well, the FMQ is sticking with the Ole Ball Coach in this one to roll….
Take USC and lay the 11 for $50

WMU @ SPARTY (-28.5):  Based on the fact that Sparty had 4 QB’s competing for the starting job and the fact that they also have a strong returning defense, I foresee a VERY long, boring game full of running plays that WMU may or may not be able to stop…My guess is that Sparty will dominate, but the score will reflect a closer game.
Take WMU and the 28.5 for $50

Bama vs Va Tech (+19):  This spread REALLY confused me….VaTech isn’t supposed to be that great, but then I read about Beamer and how he’s tough in Season Opener’s.  I figure that has to be some of the reason for that spread…But not enough for me to take the Hokies and the points….
Take Bama and lay the 19 for $50

NWU at Washington (+5.5):  I figured the Kitty Kats for a TD in this one…but Vegas obviously knows something I don’t.  So, when that happens….I PASS….

FSU @ PITT (+10):  FSU has another good team this year….on paper.  Somehow, Jimbo Fisher seems to have difficulty making it happen on the field especially early in the season.  And while Pitt isn’t a cauldron of football history, well, it could be tough.  Without a half point teaser on this game, it’s a PASS…

Miss St @ Okie State (-13):  I earlier stated in the pre-season spectacular that Okie State would have been in my top 10 if they didn’t have the schedule they have.  But this game should have been around 17 in the FMQ’s mind….so
Take Okie State and lay the 13 for $25

CMU @ MICHIGAN (-31.5):  Wow.  CMU was a bowl team last year and they are bringing a lot of kids back.  Anything over 30 points is EXTREMELY DIFFICULT for the FMQ to give…And it is opening day.  If I truly believe all the crap I’ve been reading, Michigan should win by 60.  But, its opening day…..therefore:
Take CMU and the 31.5 for $25

And what would week 1 be without a little parlay?  A 3 way pays 6 to 1.   Let’s go with our best bets:

Bama – USC – WMU for $20

Starting Bank:   $1,000
Total Bet:  $220
Bank:  $780

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