More GOLD and Ink to Stone!

INTERESTING FACT!!!

For the UPSET LOVERS, tomorrows first three scheduled games are:

Notre Dame – Princeton               12:15

Virginia – UNCW                             12:40

Butler – Winthrop                           1:30

Could we have 3 HUGE UPSETS in the first 3 Games of the day????

COULD BE!!!!

FEEDBACK

So, once again, lots of good feedback and some things I need to reconsider:

Virginia Sucks…and UNCW was THIS CLOSE to beating Duke last year...Well, yeah, I kind of know that Virginia sucks and I knew it about a month ago (go back and read the blog entry for what I thought about a team only averaging 0.85 points per possession!!!).  But they’re a little better on Offense now.  Not a lot, just better. (how could you get any worse, right?)  I know they were on a 5 game skid and limped into the conference tourney and got beat by the undersized over-achieving Domers….I know all that.  But do I THINK that UNC Wilmington is good enough to beat them?  That’s the question.  UNCW returns all the starters that almost beat Duke….I guarantee that Virginia KNOWS that UNCW almost beat Duke last year and they are preparing for this game with that knowledge.  You can’t take every upset that looks good on paper.  SOME of them DON’T happen and the higher seeded team actually wins!  That’s why I was thinking the trendy pick would be UNCW and the not so trendy and larger separator from the field is the Nevada over Iowa State (I don’t necessarily trust the Big iiX in basketball, hence the pick).  So I think I’m leaning towards a hot Nevada team and shying away from UNCW.  Put it another way:  EVERYONE is picking UNCW.  If I take Virginia, (or you) you might separate yourself more from the field if the chalk holds.  If you take NEVADA, nobody is picking that one and I think there’s just as good a chance to see that upset….Just saying. 

Florida is not good right now.  This too, I know.  Which is why ETSU was thrown out there as a potential 13-4 upset.  But again, sometimes the higher seeds win.  And Florida did lose a bunch of games to Vandy – inexplicably – and I’m questioning the SEC as a whole.  I suppose I could be talked out of my Winthrop pick over Baylor, but I don’t want to flood my bracket with upsets…Again, which chalk line do you think is going to win?

Xavier is riding in on Fumes….Looked at the Maryland-Xavier match-up again.  Thank you for that tip and you’re right.  I really hadn’t looked at Xavier, but now see that they lost quite a few of their last games (and have an injury) leading up to the NCAA’s and Maryland should be able to beat these guys….Interesting.

I think you like Wichita State too much….Maybe.  I know I have a bit of a blind spot when it comes to Greg Marshall and the Shockers.  I think they’re a good team but I didn’t see them play a game this season, but I know Gregg’s style and it seems like the Shockers will be motivated and playing with their hair on fire.  Dayton is actually a pretty good team in their own right and have some quality wins under their belt…Still, the Shockers I think are better than that.  But Kentucky might be too much for them.

Winthrop?  Seriously?  Well, yeah.  Look – I like point guard play and they have a great one.  I think.  No, I haven’t seen them play.  Either way, my thinking is Butler still loses to MTSU.  Why not ride an early upset?

2015 Didn’t Have ANY 12-5 upsets.   Yes.  Thanks for reminding me.  Some years, the 12-5’s are obvious.  Other years, you’re searching for them.  I may just take one this year and focus on the 13-4 problems I see….

Oregon - Rhode Island is kind of an important decision, isn’t it?  Yeah, it really is.  AS is the Michigan/Okie state vs. Louisville.  Any of those 3 could make it past RI or Oregon and make it to the FF.  I really don’t like Louisville that much and there are times when they just check out.  In all the games I saw this season, I saw them check-out, but I know they won some big games. 

The Brackets –Ink to Stone

The General Guidelines for your 2017 Bracket picks.  This is the GOLD…The INFORMATION that may make or break that bracket…Stuff you might have to pay other people and experts for the MMPG is giving away for FREE!!!!

1. Never, EVER pick a 16 over a 1 or a 15 over a 2-Seed.  Just doesn’t happen that often.  But South Dakota State (+22.5) might give the Zags match-up problems in the 1^st round as they have a Super Point Guard (Mike Caum) that averages over 25 points per game!!!  Lest we forget, Sparty was a 15 point favorite last year vs. MTSU…Just saying…
2. 14 Seeds have had some success over the years.  ONE 14-Seed upset pick may be okay for your bracket, but you’re giving up a 3-Seed for the rest of the tourney. 
3. Better to ride an 11-Seed against a 3-Seed in the 2^nd round if you do not like that particular 3-Seed.  This Seasons best 11-Seeds to take:  Rhode Island and Xavier.
4. 13-Seeds have also enjoyed some recent success.  This season’s 13-Seeds (listed in order by Kenpom Strength):  Vermont (KP 63), ETSU (KP 64), Bucknell (KP 80), and Winthrop (KP 112).  Meaning that if you want the BEST 13-4 upset, take Vermont over Purdue.  However, the 13-4 upsets of the past have not been the best Kenpom ranked team.  Vermont and Bucknell are more team oriented (put it this way – lots of white guys) and spread the ball around to a lot of players that score.  I like point guards in March in the Dance.  (Think of that kid Steph Curry that played for Davidson that made a run that one year).  Winthrop has a great point guard (Keon Johnson) that averages 22.5/game.  He is going to give Butler fits.  I think that might be the 13-4 to focus on….ETSU is the next on my list with another guard (T. J. Cromer) that’s averaging 19.1 points a game and might be a lot for Florida to handle. 
5.  You have to have TWO 12-5 Picks.  Over the last 10 years, the 12-Seed is 20-20 against the 5-Seeds.  Exactly 50% win rate!!  Some seasons you get three 12-5 Upsets, others only 1, but you more or less have to pick two. When in doubt, always go with a low point spread and a team with a better than their KenPom rank Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE).  And look at the Point Guards!!! This Season, MTSU (KP48 AOE 55)  vs. Minnesota and Nevada (KP 55  AOE 34) vs. red hot Iowa State seem to be the lowest point spreads.  Nevada has a super PG in Marcus Marshall averaging 19 and change a game, which is another reason to like Nevada.  The other 12-Seeds Princeton (KP 59 OAE – 84, yuck) and UNC Wilmington (KP 60, AOE 18) are very tempting, but be careful.  UNCW is playing the number 1 ranked DEFENSE of Virginia and Princeton is playing the Domers….
6. We’ve already talked about the 11 Seeds with Rhode Island and Xavier.  The only 11 Seed I’m taking to the Sweet 16 is pre-Season top 25 ranked Rhode Island. 
7. 7-10 Seeds, kind of like 12-5 Seeds, are a coin flip.  Take who you like and keep your fingers crossed.  9-Seeds hold a slight edge over 8-Seeds for the last 10 years if that helps.  Again, can’t make a decision?  Look at individual stats and go with anyone that has good guard play… 
8. Most OVERSEEDED Teams by Computer Rank in this Year’s Tourney – when compared to final Kenpom and Sagarin Stats and where they would have been seeded straight up (HT to mgoblog.com):
   1. #6 Maryland – should have been a 10-Seed.  MMPG – Agree.  Avoid Maryland going too deep….
   2. #2 Arizona – should have been a 6-Seed.  MMPG – I dunno…Wait, I DISAGREE!!!  This is a little misleading.  The AZ PG (Trier) that had to sit out half the season is back and is on fire.  So, half the season stats for AZ are skewed…  I like Arizona still to win that bracket. 
   3. #5-Seed Minnesota – Should have been a 9-Seed.  MMPG – Agree…or even lower based on how they finished the season?
   4. #4 Butler – Should have been a 7-Seed.  Hence the reason for me liking Winthrop so much…Or at least riding MTSU to the Sweet 16.  The MTSU to the Sweet 16 is kind of a no-brainer for me at this point.  MTSU was one of the more UNDERSEEDED teams (should have been 10)
   5. #7 Seed Dayton – Should have been a 10-Seed.  MMPG – Agree.  Even more reason to take Witchy State.  Actually, probably just flip the seeds on those two and everything’s fine!
   6. #9 Seed Seton Hall – Should have been 11-Seed.  This is tricky because I thought Arkansas was way-overseeded, but they appear (stats only) to be seeded correctly.  Seton Hall still a slight dog to Arkansas (-1) so flip your coin….
   7. #3 Seed FSU – Should have been a 5-Seed.  MMPG – Agree.  The way FSU finished the season and losing 6 of their last 13 was not a good look after starting out 18-2.  I thought they were a better team, but the ACC has proven that not to necessarily be the case.  I still think they’re good enough to beat FGCU, but if you want that upset based on this evidence…by all means pick it.  Looking at the West bracket, you have three of the most over-seeded teams (FSU, Arizona and Maryland) coming out of the same bracket.  Again, I think AZ is a little misleading, but Gonzaga got a pretty easy road to a FF, assuming they make it to the regional final.  Still, I think I’m going AZ in the FF.
9. MOST UNDERSEEDED Teams by Computer Rank:  take the same analysis and flip it to figure out who might surprise as a lower seeded team. 
   1. #10 Wichita State  - Should be a 3-Seed.  MMPG:  Maybe NOT QUITE a 3-Seed, but they should be higher….I’m still debating about the Witchy State Kentucky pick…But leaning towards Kentucky right now.
   2. #11 Seed K-State – The Wake/K-State Winner should be a 9-Seed.  MMPG:  Eh.  Whatever.  I think Cinci has the firepower to handle K-State and did not come away from last night’s game that impressed with K-State.
   3. #10-Seed Okie State – Should be a 7-Seed.  MMPG:  Haven’t I kind of been saying this all along?  Michigan and Okie state will be in a dog fight…. FYI:  Michigan, by computer, should have only been on the 6-Seed line, for what it’s worth
   4. #4-Seed WVU and #10-Seed Marquette (tie).   Should have each been 2 seeds higher.  WVU 2-Seed and Marquette 8-Seed.  MMPG:  Sort of, kind of agree?  But again, I DON’T TRUST THE Big iiX nor do I trust the BEAST.  Careful how you used this information…

Okay…I’m done.  Spent…I can’t process any more information and my brain is full.  Time to start watching games and drowning sorrows for picks gone wrong….

Here’s the bracket.  The crazy MMPG one with Michigan winning the whole thing!!!!  The Sane Bracket I will post upon request (assuming it actually wins any money….)

The EAST

The WEST

The SOUTH

The MIDWEST

Final Four

Arizona prevails over a feisty Duke and Michigan hangs on against UNC for an Arizona Michigan Final that nobody sees coming….Michigan pulls off the final piece of the miracle season and cuts down the nets in Phoenix.

GOLDEN INFORMATION for the Dance!!!

Skip down to "The Brackets" if you’re looking for GOLDEN INFORMATION regarding the tourney….

I kind of went back to January and early February’s posts in order to get a feeling for the mood of Michigan hoops at that point in time.  You may recall that a lot of my entries began with, “This is a MUST-WIN game situation” or “Lose this one and it’s NIT Time” or other such drivel and non-sense.  I can’t seem to help myself at points like that.  I need to trust the Beilein.  I need to Believe in the Beilein and the process.  I need to accept the fact that JB may know a little bit more about basketball, motivation, leadership, etc. than the ole MMPG.  In fact, I’ll venture a guess right here and suggest that he knows “WAY MORE” than everyone reading this combined.  And he also knows that it’s a simple game.  And there are times that you just have to keep shooting, defending and running up and down the court in an effort to get your stuff working the way its supposed to.

You may recall that there were twitter-verse and on line torch and pitchfork trolls that were clamoring for the firing of Beilein while holding other programs up as an example of what Michigan could be.  And while I had my doubts (SERIOUS DOUBTS) about this team, I saw glimpses of perfection.  And real talent.  And Beilein is a late-February early March kind of coach.  Michigan is peaking perfectly.  And as a fan, I wouldn’t have it any other way. Now.  It’s the January blues that you have to watch out for.   

So why am I writing this?  To remind myself in future seasons that when Michigan isn’t sitting on a B1G Tourney win and poised to make a run in the NCAA’s that Beilein gets it.  And eventually, his players will get it, too. 

The Team(s) That Neither Team Wanted to See

In the ironic world where the Selection committee claims, “We had no idea!” the Michigan Okie match-up has become the “Must See” game of Round 1 and will probably be the poster child for what post-season hoops can look like. 

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-tv-schedule-top-five-must-watch-first-round-march-madness-games/

Problem is, one of them has to lose.  Again, Michigan or Okie state in any other bracket (well, I guess I wouldn’t want to play Witchy State, either) and you’ve got a 7 and a 10-Seed that can do some damage and score a lot of points.  Regardless, Pitino already commented on the fact that, “These were definitely 2 teams I would have preferred not having to play, especially in the 2^nd round.” 

FEEDBACK

As always, I get a lot of feedback on my posts and this time was no different.  Some of you sent me additional bitches and insights which are always good!  So, in no particular order:

Did anyone notice that the suckeyes didn’t make it into the NIT?  I did not notice that but thanks for pointing it out!!!

More Bracket Bitches:  Based on Michigan’s B1G Tourney performance and Lunardi and Palm both having Michigan as a 6-Seed before the pairings came out on Sunday afternoon, Michigan DID GET HOSED.  That were all clear on.  But looking at where Michigan could have been, I don’t think it was more than about 1 seed line difference.  And a 6 seed would have been nice as you’re not playing the 1-2 seeds until the following weekend.  Again, beating the Gophers and the Suckeyes and Michigan probably is a 6 or a 5-Seed.  

South Carolina was over-seeded as a 7-Seed playing in their own backyard (Greeneville) against bracket darling Marquette (+1.5).  Lots of pundits will take the Marquette Golden Eagles in this match-up but I will take the home court advantage of the lower seed in that one.

Minnesota should not have been a 5-Seed.  And if they’re the 5-Seed, how did the 2^nd place runner up Wiscy Badgers fall to an 8-Seed?  Great point.  I can’t explain that one either, accept that Wiscy really fell flat at the end of the season, but I thought that didn’t matter (that much).  Maybe the committee doesn’t look at relevant conference finishes but rather how you stack up nationally, I guess? 

UCLA could get upset by Kent State (+18).  If not this one, which 14-3 or 13-4 upset do you think happens?  WHERE IS IT???  If that one happens, well, a lot of people are going to lose a top seed in UCLA, but that’s not one I can pick.  However, I do agree that a lot of Pac12 and Big12 Teams should be on upset alert.  Iowa State and Oregon both come to mind as a 5 and a 3 seed, respectively, that should be on the look-out.  But Oregon losing to Iona?  I dunno…the other 13-4 is Bucknell-WVU and I’m not picking that one, either. Baylor has shown that they have difficulties in the first round, but I hate to make wild picks when a point or two could come in so handy later on….Sometimes you just have to accept that upsets happen and you’re never going to be 100% right in this thing.  Nobody is when the odds are in the Quintillions….

You really think Purdue can beat Iowa State and Kansas?  I believe that Purdue can play with ANYONE on the National level, and that includes Iowa State and Kansas.  (Assuming the get past Vermont) I know Iowa State is one of the hottest teams in the country (and is almost identical to Michigan in profile), but Purdue is not going to be an easy out.  (And Painter needs some NCAA victories)  And if Purdue beats ISU, well, then I think Kansas will get nervous, Purdue will have some confidence having beaten a more difficult team and, yeah, I think Purdue can beat Kansas.  But Purdue will nut-up again when they see Michigan across the floor from them in the Regionals…

How far does Wichita State go?  I know, that’s a tuffy, isn’t it?  I’ve been looking and studying that bracket with a lot of earnest.  While Kentucky is playing better basketball over the last 15 games (Calipari Affect), I still think there’s an outside chance that Wichita can Shock the world in Round 2.  If they do that, Why not take them against “we play defense when we want to” UCLA, also?  But that murderer’s row of Kentucky-UCLA-North Carolina is brutal and I just don’t see the Shockers (or Kentucky) getting past the Sweet 16 or the Elite 8, at best. 

Which Conference should I say is the “When in doubt, pick conference X”…The ACC?  I understand the question and I use this philosophy often when comparing what I think are close picks.  Much like last year, I think the ACC is that conference.  I think the Beast, with the exception of Nova, might be the conference you bet AGAINST this season.  The B1G might be a conference you want to have a lower balance of in the 2^nd weekend (maybe 2 teams?) Purdue and Michigan with an outside chance of Senior Laden Wiscy waking up and playing hoops again.  I want to believe Wiscy can play with anyone, but their offense has sputtered in too many games down the stretch.   

Will a First 4 Play-in winner make it to the Sweet 16?  Every year one of the 11-Seed play-ins has made noise in the Tourney.  But with the draws they have this season, I’m not seeing it so much.  Cinci is good and SMU is supposed to be the upset darling of the East.  So, I dunno.  USC looked good to me early on and has the best coach (Enfield) to pull something like that off, but I’m not sure I can bet on it.   

How many 1-Seeds do you think will make it to the Final 4?  Based on my brackets and the way they look right now, not very many.  I have a lot of them losing and my bracket is pretty much 2, 2, 7, 1.  That’s Duke, Arizona, Michigan, UNC.  In the “Sane” bracket I have 2, 2, 2, 1.  That’s Duke, Arizona, Louisville and UNC.  I simply cannot bring myself to write Kansas in on any FF bracket. I do like UCLA accept that defense with them is sometimes optional.  I struggled with the Duke-Villanova pick and thought about splitting it (one bracket each way) but I do think Duke is playing together right now and is kind of the ACC team of destiny.   I usually like to have two 1-Seeds, but that reasoning last year killed my bracket early, also.  Let’s put it another way:  The easiest 1-Seeds to bet against are Gonzaga and Kansas. 

And that’s Vegas talking, too.  Look at the odds…Gonzaga 10-1 and Kansas 8-1.  UNC and Duke are the favorites.  I’m sticking with UNC but gotta go with Duke over Nova for right now, but could easily be swayed to keep Nova around because, well, Duke has screwed me in the past, also. 

The Brackets – Pencil to Ink

The General Guidelines for your 2017 Bracket picks.  This is the GOLD…The INFORMATION that may make or break that bracket…Stuff you might have to pay other people and experts for the MMPG is giving away for FREE!!!!

1. Never, EVER pick a 16 over a 1 or a 15 over a 2-Seed.  Just doesn’t happen that often.  But South Dakota State (+22.5) might give the Zags match-up problems in the 1^st round as they have a Super Point Guard (Mike Caum) that averages over 25 points per game!!!  Lest we forget, Sparty was a 15 point favorite last year vs. MTSU…Just saying…
2. 14 Seeds have had some success over the years.  ONE 14-Seed upset pick may be okay for your bracket, but you’re giving up a 3-Seed for the rest of the tourney. 
3. Better to ride an 11-Seed against a 3-Seed in the 2^nd round if you do not like that particular 3-Seed.  This Seasons best 11-Seeds to take:  Rhode Island and Xavier.
4. 13-Seeds have also enjoyed some recent success.  This season’s 13-Seeds (listed in order by Kenpom Strength):  Vermont (KP 63), ETSU (KP 64), Bucknell (KP 80), and Winthrop (KP 112).  Meaning that if you want the BEST 13-4 upset, take Vermont over Purdue.  However, the 13-4 upsets of the past have not been the best Kenpom ranked team.  Vermont and Bucknell are more team oriented (put it this way – lots of white guys) and spread the ball around to a lot of players that score.  I like point guards in March in the Dance.  (Think of that kid Steph Curry that played for Davidson that made a run that one year).  Winthrop has a great point guard (Keon Johnson) that averages 22.5/game.  He is going to give Butler fits.  I think that might be the 13-4 to focus on….ETSU is the next on my list with another guard (T. J. Cromer) that’s averaging 19.1 points a game and might be a lot for Florida to handle. 
5.  You have to have TWO 12-5 Picks.  Over the last 10 years, the 12-Seed is 20-20 against the 5-Seeds.  Exactly 50% win rate!!  Some seasons you get three 12-5 Upsets, others only 1, but you more or less have to pick two. When in doubt, always go with a low point spread and a team with a better than their KenPom rank Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (AOE).  And look at the Point Guards!!! This Season, MTSU (KP48 AOE 55)  vs. Minnesota and Nevada (KP 55  AOE 34) vs. red hot Iowa State seem to be the lowest point spreads.  Nevada has a super PG in Marcus Marshall averaging 19 and change a game, which is another reason to like Nevada.  The other 12-Seeds Princeton (KP 59 OAE – 84, yuck) and UNC Wilmington (KP 60, AOE 18) are very tempting, but be careful.  UNCW is playing the number 1 ranked DEFENSE of Virginia and Princeton is playing the Domers….
6. We’ve already talked about the 11 Seeds with Rhode Island and Xavier.  The only 11 Seed I’m taking to the Sweet 16 is pre-Season top 25 ranked Rhode Island. 
7. 7-10 Seeds, kind of like 12-5 Seeds, are a coin flip.  Take who you like and keep your fingers crossed.  9-Seeds hold a slight edge over 8-Seeds for the last 10 years if that helps.  Again, can’t make a decision?  Look at individual stats and go with anyone that has good guard play… 

The EAST

The 1^st round Lines (ignoring 1-16, 2-15 match-ups) My picks Bold and Underlined:

Wiscy (-4.5) vs. Va Tech

Virginia (-8.5) vs. UNC Wilmington

Florida (-10) vs. ETSU

Baylor (-12) vs. New Mexico State

South Carolina (-1.5) vs. Marquette

Okay, some final decisions have been made.  I am going to take Duke over Nova, but that has to be the toughest decision in this bracket, and probably the most important for any pool you get into this season.  That one decision could either put you in the money or keep you out of it altogether.  Minor decision update:  I’m taking SMU over Baylor in 2^nd round.  Also going against every pundit out there and sticking with the Gamecocks playing 45 minutes from HOME in Greenville vs. Marquette.  My ETSU/Florida pick will be last minute, but right now I’m leaning Florida.

The WEST

The Lines

Northwestern (+1) vs Vanderbilt

Notre Dame (-6.5) vs. Princeton

WVU (-13.5) vs. Bucknell

Maryland (+1.5) vs. Xavier

FSU (-12) vs. FCGU

Saint Mary’s (-4.5) vs. VCU

Updates to this bracket also.  Toying with the idea of having the Domers in the FF (sane bracket) as a 5-Seed.  They’ve made two consecutive Sweet 16’s and they might be in the right bracket to get to the FF.   I watched a lot of ACC hoops this season and the Domers have a lot of weapons.  I don’t feel that great about my Arizona pick anymore, either, and I strongly considering taking FSU vs. the Domers in the regional.  I still might.  Obviously, I’m not on the WVU (BigiiX) train….Taking Vandy over Northwestern as I’m don’t know if I can trust the Wildcats.  They’ll probably end up screwing me…If Gonzaga is all that, than St. Mary’s was underseeded and should win easily over VCU.  If Gonzaga isn’t, VCU might destroy St. Mary’s walking away.

The SOUTH

The Lines

Arkansas (-1) vs. Seton Hall

Minnesota (-1) vs. MTSU

Butler (-11) vs. Winthrop

UCLA (-17) vs. Kent State

Dayton (+6.5) vs. Witchy State

This bracket has become a nightmare.  I think there are 4 legitimate teams (UNC, Kentucky, UCLA and Witchy State) that you could argue as potential Final 4 teams.  Not to mention that MTSU is capable of hanging around with UNC in the Sweet 16, assuming they get that far (which I have them beating Butler/Winthrop winner). Right now, UNC is still coming out of this one on top, but I hate the bracket.  Also really looking at taking Winthrop and that super PG Johnson over Butler who I think is a little over-seeded and, hey, Beast.   

The MIDWEST

The Lines

Miami (-1) vs. MSU

Iowa State (-6.5) vs. Nevada

Purdue (-8.5) vs. Vermont

Oregon (-14) vs. Iona

Creighton (-1) vs. Rhode Island

Michigan (-1) vs. Okie State

Again, not a fun bracket to mess with as Kansas could hold serve and end up as the team out of the Midwest as they’re more or less playing every game at home.  That’s almost too much of an advantage.  In the game that could be defined as “Wheezing and coughing into the NCAA Tourney”, both Miami and Sparty have both lost 3 of their last 4.  This is truly a whoever shows up with their “good” team will probably win.   Take the “March Mystique of Izzo” and pray with everyone else that leans towards the green…What’s interesting is whoever wins that game has a shot at beating the Jayhawks, IMHO.   I think I’m leaning towards Nevada as the other 12-5 upset pick, but I’m not entirely sure there yet.  Might only go with one 12-5 this season, even though I know that’s wrong.   I still like the Wolverines, but I hate the first game against Okie State.  I almost feel better about the Cardinals in Round 2 as I think they’ll be easier to handle, but I could be wrong.  I currently have Rhode Island going to the Sweet 16.  Oregon could be that weird upset that no one sees coming vs. Iona (KP 112).  And Oregon could also make it to the Sweet 16….

Final Four

When you’re in a bracket that rewards picking the Semifinals (16 points each) and the final game (32 points), putting so much time into the 1^st and 2^nd rounds seems dumb.  Playing a couple of brackets and picking two different winners seems to make more sense.  So, I’m either playing 2 or 3 brackets (because I simply couldn’t live with myself if Michigan won it all and I didn’t pick them) and I really like Duke and UNC.  However, it’s hard to ignore Villanova and a lot of bracket pickers will take them just because….

Dance-Dance-Dance!!!

In no particular order:

CELEBRATE!!!!

IT’S GREAT TO BE A MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!!!

B1G Tourney CHAMPS!!!!!

In what can only be described as one of the (if NOT THE) Greatest Weekends of Michigan Basketball, the Michigan Wolverines made history by winning the B1G Tourney as the highest seed ever!!!  They were a favorite to beat the Illini, but after that, they were Kenpom and Vegas DOGS against Purdue, Minnesota and Wiscy.  Even the ‘ole MMPG didn’t have the guts to pick the Maize and Blue to pull off 4 wins in 4 days in Maryland’s back yard (who I thought would make the final) in the conference tourney.  Only other team to pull anything like that off this season?  Duke, except the dookies were not underdogs in all the games they played.  More on the dookies in a minute…Derick Walton Jr. wins the Tourney MVP (deservedly so – I mean, who else was there?) and Michigan completed one of the most compelling 5 day stories in all of basketball by winning the Tourney.  I know it’s way too soon for this…but should the plane run off the runway this week too?

Celebration OVER!

Michigan earns a 7-Seed in the Midwest Region, making Rounds 1 & 2 a very short 5.5 hour drive down to Indy if anyone wants to catch them.  Do I have a bitch (as was texted to me multiple times, so everyone gets credit), yes, I do.  Michigan got hosed…A little, but upon further analysis maybe not as much as you think.

Apparently, according to the Tournament Committee Chair, jolly green giant AD Hollis, Michigan and Wiscy swapped spots with Michigan’s victory over Wiscy in the B1G Championship Game.  So, Michigan would have been the 8-Seed in the East Bracket playing in Buffalo and would have had to face Villanova (last year’s NCAA Champion).  In the Midwest, they have to face Louisville in Round 2, assuming they beat the Okie State Cowboys.  My issue with that match-up:  I was going to have Okie State as a double seeded Sleeper team that could easily make the Sweet 16 because they can SCORE!!!  A lot.  Okie State is the Big iiX’s Michigan, in a weird, twisted way.  (OKIE State is #1 In Adj. Off. Eff. And #123 in Adj. Def. Eff.) Michigan is going to have to score early and often to beat the Cowboys – but that doesn’t seem to be an issue at the moment.  Can Michigan then beat Louisville?  Of all the 2-Seeds (as they are now ranked), I’m actually not terribly upset with this one.  Arizona and Duke will be in my Final 4 and the other 2-Seed, Kentucky, runs so hot and cold this season that they could be a final 4 team or lose to Witchy State…And the other part of my wish – getting the Kansas bracket, came true.  In fact, I like Purdue to take care of business for a possible regional final re-match between Purdue and Michigan…but I’m getting way ahead of myself. 

Back to the underseeding:  Lunardi’s last bracket had Michigan as high as a 6-Seed as did Palm (who got all 68 teams correct, by the way) and, apparently, per the committee, there was no way Michigan was every going to play up to the 6-seed line.  Which, I dunno.  I look at some of the teams on the 6-line, and I’m thinking there’s at least 2 or 3 (Maryland, Creighton and SMU – which Michigan destroyed early in the season) that Michigan could EASILY Beat right now.  Again, I guess it doesn’t matter as eventually, you’re going to have to play good teams….

So, be happy!!!  The way Michigan’s playing right now, you could do a lot worse than picking them as a sleeper to make some noise as a 7-Seed which kind of makes it more fun, in a weird twisted MMPG kind of way!!!

Other Bracket Bitches:  Not too many this season, but if I’m a dookie and I beat UNC twice and won the ACC Tourney and I didn’t get the 1-Seed, I guess I can understand where you’d be a little pissed.  I can take credit for this one, but somebody said yesterday:  MSU being a 9-Seed and Wichita State being a 10-Seed ought to get the Selection Committee Chair fired.  I guess we know who Hollis voted for….

The Brackets – An Early Look

I’ve watched the 3-hour March Madness Special on CBS (2x) and the BTN Bracket Special (1x) and I’ve made a few opinions from all that and derived a few of my own.  Some of those clowns know what they’re talking about and others don’t have a clue.  Without further ado:

The EAST

Let’s analyze the East First.  I’m not completely buying the SMU hype train that other pundits are jumping on.  In fact, the Providence/USC winner, IMHO, has a chance to knock off the Mustangs.  I know others are taking SMU all the way to the FF, but I just can’t do that.  I may take the Mustangs to beat Baylor as they’ve cooled off recently and didn’t do much in the Big iiX Tourney, but then I’m off the Mustang train (again, not saying I’m picking SMU, just sayin’ – MAYBE).  Baylor is the better team, but I’m cursed because I am just remembering what Baylor did to my bracket:  losing to Yale last season as a 5-Seed IMMEDIATELY COMES TO MIND!!!  I’m pretty much chalk in this bracket with the only exception that I have a very hot Duke beating Jay Wright’s Villanova Team in the Regional Final to get to the FF.  UNC Wilmington will be a fashionable 12-5 pick, but don’t do that.  Virginia will find a way to make it to the 2^nd round and knock off a Florida to make the Sweet 16, only to fall to Villanova.  Speaking of Florida, some are calling for ETSU to pull off the13-4 upset of center-less (injury in the SEC Tourney) Florda 9who has lost 3 out of the last 4), but I think there might – MIGHT be a better 13-4 pick out there if you’re into that sort of thing…But ETSU is definitely worth a look.   

The WEST

I’m calling this the Bracket of Chaos.  Princeton (who hsan’t lost since before Christmas) as a 12-Seed is VERY Tempting to upset the Domers, but again, don’t do it. (Even though the IVY league rep has one a 1^st round game in 4 of the last 6 seasons!)  The Domers are solid and have a very good chance to make the Sweet 16.  I know WVU is hot right now, but stick with the Domers as the 5-Seed Sweet 16 representative.  Maryland could beat FSU, but won’t, so there’s your other Sweet 16 team.  Arizona was handed a gift to get into the Sweet 16.   And here’s the key:  Northwestern not only makes the Dance for the first time ever, but they enter the ball in Grand Fashion by beating Vandy and upsetting Gonzaga to make the Sweet 16 in their first appearance!  Arizona beats the Domers to make it into the Final 4.

The SOUTH

Upset Specials Galore Bracket!!!  Pay Attention:  Everyone that’s been looking for the BEST pick for a 12-5 upset, here’s the best one going:  Michigan’s adopted little brother Middle Tennessee State goes up against the now injury plagued Golden Gophers that is down to 6 players (effectively) having lost one of their leading scorers to injury on Saturday.  MTSU is actually a better team this season and let’s not forget who they beat LAST year as a 15-Seed. (BTW:  Vegas has an early spread out and this is a “Pick ‘Em” game).   Another upset special, if you have to have a 13-4 Seed:   Winthrop over Butler would put you into a class by yourself.  But it’s not that crazy of a pick. The only team Butler has beaten is Villanova, and Butler looks pretty average otherwise and Winthrop is the real deal. Dakich made a comment that he likes Winthrop over Butler in that game!!! Witchy State, by unanimous agreement, was grossly under-seeded as a 10-Seed and Dayton was destroyed by Cinci in the tourney final.  I know I should never go against Calipari in March, but I’m doing it anyway: Take Witchy State over Kentucky to make a Sweet 16 Appearance this season to atone for the loss they suffered to Kentucky as a 1-Seed a few years back.  Another reasonable upset pick is the 9-8 with Seton Hall over way over-seeded Arkansas (should have been on the 10-line at best).  Take UCLA as the 3-Seed upset over North Carolina to the Final 4.   I reserve the right to change my mind on that one as I think Carolina can manage defenseless UCLA, it’s just how I feel this AM. 

The MIDWEST

Jeez….I actually think Michigan got lucky with this seeding, I really do.  Kansas – Beatable.  Louisville – Beatable.  Oregon – Also lost their top scorer (Boucher) in the Pac12 Tourney – VERY BEATABLE.  And Michigan has already beaten 4-Seed Purdue twice…So how’s it all going to play out?

First, Sparty and Miami deserve each other.  This is another one of those times when I think the committee says, “Wouldn’t it be funny if we took two teams that have each lost 3 out of their last 4 games and pit them against each other?”  Miami is probably the better misfit, but who knows.  They looked lackluster in the ACC Tourney but could wake up again now that the dance is here.  Otherwise, if Sparty proves to be March Ready, I still think they will go down to Jayhawks if they manage the upset over the Canes.  I know Iowa State just won the Big iiX Tourney, but Nevada is only a 6-point dog and is, I think, a better team than the Cyclones.  If you always need to have two 12-5 seed upset picks, this is probably your best bet for the other one after MTSU over the Gophers. 

Purdue should hold serve and they will upset Kansas to make the Elite 8.  On the lower half of the bracket is where things get interesting.  Rhode Island could be this year’s 11-Seed to make a lot of noise and make the Sweet 16.  Creighton and Oregon are banged up with leading scorers out and The Rams can easily beat those two teams.  Michigan, assuming they can handle Okie-State and the Cardinals will face off against the Rams in the Sweet 16. And there I have to take Michigan winning.  Why I believe Michigan can beat Louisville:  Louisville hasn’t won a road game (of importance) for the entire season.  That leaves us with Michigan and Purdue in a battle for the Final 4.  Michigan has already beat Purdue twice.  Why not 3 times?

Final Four

In the end, Vegas favorite to win the whole thing, Duke proves to be too much for Arizona and Michigan pulls off the upset/re-match with UCLA.  It’s a 1992 Championship Game Re-Match between the dookies and the Wolverines….And of course, the Zany MMPG has the Michigan Wolverines winning the entire enchilada!!!

Now, taking off my Michigan hat:  I still think Michigan can beat Purdue but UNC might beat UCLA and is playing very good basketball right now and may prove to be too much for the Wolverines…Whatever the case, I have a weird feeling this is Duke’s year, love ‘em or hate ‘em, and Coach K will be hoisting yet another National Championship trophy with a win over UNC – for the third time this season.    

There will be two brackets this year…Coming soon!!!