Brackets, Brackets, Brackets!

The State of the Game

Monday, I asked the somewhat rhetorical question, “Just how important, EXACTLY, is a Number 1 seed in today’s NCAA Tournament?”  I mean, I get that the number 1 seed has traditionally been the hallmark of the great teams and a reward for a season well played.  But in the “modern” NCAA, does the number 1 seeding really mean that much for a capable and upset minded team with a 2-3 or 4 seed?  And even higher than that?

Is there any way to analyze the numbers from previous tournaments and determine how often a #1 seed makes the final game and wins the whole enchilada?  There’s some simple things we can look at initially and then get deeper into the information as we go along up to the tournament.

Let’s look at the last 10 seasons’ Final 4 Teams and eventual winners:

2013 (1 Seeds:  Kansas, Gonzaga, Indiana, Louisville):

1 Seeds to make it to the Sweet 16: Louisville, Kansas, Indiana.  (Indiana and Kansas lost Sweet 16 games)

Final Four:  MW1:  Louisville  W9:  Wichita State   S4: MICHIGAN   E4: Syracuse

Champion:  Louisville over Michigan.

Comment: Nobody had Mark Few’s Zags going that deep last year and many picker’s had Kansas going down early as well.  And Wichita State rode a 9 seed slot all the way to the Final 4, albeit some have argued that it was the easiest bracket. The surprise loser was Indiana as many thought Syracuse lacked the defense to play with the B1G teams.  Louisville wins it all as 1 Seed over an upset minded and determined 4 seed from Michigan.

2012 1 Seeds:  Michigan State, Kentucky, North Carolina, Syracuse

1 Seeds to make it to the Sweet 16:  Kentucky, North Carolina, Syracuse, Sparty

Final Four:    S1:  Kentucky    W4: Louisville   E2: Ohio State   MW2:  Kansas

Champion:  Kentucky…..

Comment:  This was a year that if you DIDN’T take Kentucky, your bracket was only part of the overall 4% in the country that didn’t have the Wildcats winning it all….  Meaning you are probably a Suckeye, sparty, Dookie, Tar Heel, Cardinal, or Jayhawk with delirious hopes….So, it skews the data somewhat…

2011  1 Seeds:  Duke, Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh

1 Seeds that made the Sweet 16:  Kansas, Duke (barely), Ohio State.  Pitt was CLEARLY the early disappointment this year….

Final Four:   E4: Kentucky   W3: U-Conn   SW11: VCU   SE8: Butler

Champion:  U-Conn over Butler

Comment:  This was an upset picker’s DREAM season with respect to the brackets.  All 1 seeds eliminated prior to the Final Four.  This is the kind of season we’re currently in the middle of with no real domination of any team at present.  VCU and Butler were both huge surprises and U-Conn and Kentucky had some stumbles mid-season that cost them 1-Seeds.  But it didn’t matter!

2010   1 Seeds:  Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Kansas

1 Seeds that made the Sweet 16:  Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke

Final Four:   M5:  Sparty  W5:  Butler  E2:  West Virginia  S1:  Duke

Champion:  Duke over Butler

Comment:  Long live the 5 Seed!  This was a season that was again marred by tough inter-conference play that knocked great teams out of the 1 seeding.  But that didn’t hinder them into making a deep run.  Unfortunately, the two 5 Seeds went head to head in the semi’s, making a 5 vs. 5 match-up in the final impossible…but Butler almost did pull off the upset Championship win after handily beating sparty….

2009  1 Seeds: UNC, Pitt, U-Conn, Louisville..(Can anyone say “Big East OVERATED???)

1 Seeds that Made Sweet 16:  Everyone…Nuts…

Final Four:  MW2:  Sparty  W1:  U-Conn  E3:  Villanova   S1:  UNC

Champion:  UNC over Sparty

Comment:  Another year where the favorites and the chalk picks were the way to go.  In fact, in this particular tournament, the only real upsets were a 10-7 by Michigan and a 12-5 by Wiscy and Cleveland State over Wake Forest (13-4).  Again, a bad year to use for any kind of argument for “A #1 Seed ain’t EVERYTHING!”

2008  1 Seeds: Kansas, Memphis, UCLA, UNC

1 Seeds that made the Sweet 16:  ALL

Final Four  E1: North Carolina  S1:  Memphis  M1:  Kansas  W1:  UCLA

Champion:  Kansas over Memphis

Comment:  This year REALLY SUCKED for the lower seeds as several top seeds made it into the Elite 8 but couldn’t knock off the #1 seeds.  Every #1 made the Final 4.  PHHHHHTTTT!!!!

2007:  1 Seeds:  Florida, Kansas, Ohio State, UNC

1 Seeds that didn’t make the Sweet 16:  NONE – All made Sweet 16!!!

Final Four:  M1:  Florida  W2:  UCLA  E2:  Georgetown  S1:  Ohio State

Champion:  Florida over Ohio State

Comment:  Okay, this is really starting to look like a bad exercise.  Two #1 seeds make it to the final game. 

2006   1 Seeds:  Dook, Memphis, Villanova, U-Conn

1 Seeds that made the Sweet 16:  All

Final Four:  AT4:  LSU  OA2:  UCLA  MI3:  Florida  WA11:  George Mason

Champion:  Florida over UCLA

Comment:  This is where the NCAA finally stopped with the “Atlanta Region” or “Washington Region” and went back to the old fashioned identifiers.  And Long live the 11 Seed and George Mason!  This season had an upstart 4 Seed get all the way to the Final 4 with LSU dominating teams until they played UCLA.  And finally, there are NO 1 SEEDS in this Final 4!  A 2, 3 and 4 seed rounded out the field after George Mason with most of the 1 seeds losing in the Sweet 16 of elite 8.

2005  1 Seeds:  Illinois (Yes – the last time they were relevant in basketball), UNC, Washington (????),  Dook

1 Seeds that made the Sweet 16:  ALL

Final 4:  CH1:  Illinois  AL4:  Louisville  SY1:  North Carolina  AU5:  Sparty

Champion:  UNC over Illinois

Comment:  Once again, the 1 seeds made impressive runs, but upstarts Louisville as a 4 seed and Sparty as a 5 made the Final 4. 

2004   1 Seeds:  St. Joseph’s, Kentucky, Dook, Stanford

#1 Seeds in the Sweet 16:  Dook, St. Joseph’s

Final Four:  ER2:  Okie State  SL3:  Georgia Tech  AT1:  Dook  PH2:  U-Conn

Champion:  U-Conn over GT

Comment:  The year where 1 seeds dropped like flies in the first weekend.  For anyone that picked it right, it was sweet as you were probably collecting your winnings prior to the Elite 8 completing.  And again, we see that the eventual champion is a 2 seed. 

So, what does it all mean?

1 Seed Champions in the last 10 years:  7

2 Seed Champions: 1

3 Seed Champions: 2

Better yet, what is the “composition” of the Final 4 based on Seeding?

1 Seeds:  14

2 Seeds:  9

3 Seeds:  4

4 Seeds:  6

5 Seeds: 3

6 Seeds:  0

7 Seeds:  0

8 Seeds:  1

9 Seeds: 1

10 Seeds: 0

11 Seeds: 2!!!! VCU and George Mason

Above 11 Seed:  0

What’s interesting:  1 Seeds represent less than HALF of the last 40 Final 4 TEAMS!  If you have more than two 1 Seeds in your bracket, you better know something!  Of course, in years where there’s an overly obvious 1 Seed, I think it’s easier to take that team and another 1 Seed.  This year…not so much.

And, using the last 10 years as an example, if you can’t be a 1 seed, the next best seed to be is a 2 Seed followed by a 4 Seed (but NO NCAA CHAMPIONS from the 4 spot!), and then finally the 3.  In fact, I’ve made the argument in the past that due to “conference” toughness and tough in conference opponents, the better teams often end up as 3 or 4 seeds with the 2 Seeds getting that nod only because the committee doesn’t want “conference match-ups” occurring too soon in the brackets and moves unworthy teams up in the seeding.  And, finally, if there’s an 11 Seed you’re in love with…Ride ‘em DEEP! (Can anyone say Nebraska???)

Also, based on the up and down “wave” we’ve seen with respect to 1 Seeds making or not making the FF, this might be the season/tournament where the upset plays a big role in who makes the Final 4.  Could this be one of those “boring” years in the tournament?  Time will tell…

Bracket Science

If you haven’t heeded my advice and read a few of Pete’s Blog entries at “Bracket Science”,(see the link above) I will do you a favor and reproduce a couple of his more pertinent items here.  One of the ones I really love is this:  The Championship Criteria.  Pete has more or less figured out 8 critical factors that every (REPEAT – EVERY) National Champion in the last 13 years has had in the modern 64 team era.  So, while all the top seeds are obviously in here, seeing this information may help you make that final determination on who is going to be in your FF (final four) and you overall championship pick.

 

(HT:  Bracket Science)

Also, another chart that I absolutely love is this one:  Tourney Advance Rates By Seed.  If you’re considering whether or not to take that 13-4 upset, you can get a better idea by looking at this chart and making an informed decision. 

So, what's interesting?  When in doubt on the coin flip in the 8-9 match-up, pick the 9!  What's also interesting is that a 10 seed is only a 3-2 dog vs. a 7 seed...not that big of a surprise, but should help out with the 7-10 picks.  The high second round success of the high sees #10 and #12 is also interesting - meaning that if you're going to tempt fate in Round 1....Well, you might as well go ahead and ride them into Round 2.  5 Seeds, by nature of the success of the 12 Seeds, don't fare as well in Round 1, and even if they make Round 2, their success wanes...I'm not sure how far I would take any particular 5 Seed no matter what they looked like early.  It would need to be a compelling argument. 

Again, Bracket Science has a wealth of information and analysis and Pete will provide (for a fee, of course!) what a PASE (That’s Performance Against Seeded Expectation) bracket for the 2014 NCAA’s once it comes out on Sunday. 

It’s getting exciting!  

Is It Possible to Feel Happy and "BLUE" at the Same Time? YES!!!

First, I have to come clean and admit that a LOT of what you read in the MMPG on Monday doesn’t necessarily get written by the MMPG on Monday.  A lot of what I put together is at lunch during the week or after hours in the office.  I then sort of compile it all and then spit it out on Monday.  The MMQ, OTOH, is more or less all written on Monday Morning.  So, that’s out there.

However, this AM’s installment is not only from the heart, but it is being penned on Monday Morning.  I’m still agog with what the Michigan Wolverines were able to pull off in the last 4 games, sweeping the Hoosiers, Illini, Minnesota, and Purdue.  The probability associated with that accomplishment was somewhere between 10-15%.  For the odds people reading, that more or less translates to an event that should only happen once every 8 to 9 times you attempt it.  In other words….It shouldn’t happen, at least not that often.  Especially when the Hoosiers shoot 60% from the field???!!!???  Come on!  How does Michigan keep DOING it?  Can anyone explain?

And for all of you that were PANICING Saturday (You know who you are – I have your texts and I am going to keep them as proof!) please remember that this team simply is never out of it.  They are stronger mentally than their fans (thankfully) and seem to rise to the occasion in the face of every adversity that has been presented to them this season.  You just need to believe and be patient!  But it still doesn’t answer the question:  How are they doing it? (Besides being 3-point oriented, not turning the ball over and making free throws?  What, BESIDES all that?  Because, clearly, that’s not a formula for winning, is it?)

Sparty couldn’t win their last three, even though they were 20-25% likely to do so.  Wiscy was also higher percentage wise to win out…And they couldn’t do it losing at Nebraska last night....  What does it mean?  It just means that Michigan is a team that may not look great on the defensive stat sheet…but they hang around long enough and more importantly, they aren’t afraid to score.  And they DEFINITELY aren’t “afraid” to Win!  I’ve watched a lot of basketball lately, and I see a lot of teams lacking confidence which directly results in an inability to score.  (Please see last 2 minutes of Suckeyes – Sparty game on Sunday afternoon...  Suckeyes couldn’t buy a free throw even though the refs kept handing out fouls like candy and Sparty was allergic to the basket  on their end missing all 5 of their last attempts!).

This Wolverine team is special.  More so than last year and even the Novak year two seasons ago…And they are led by some very special individuals.  I’m not saying that you should have 4^th and 5^th year seniors on a team, but it was pretty apparent that having Jordan Morgan on the floor on Saturday is a huge factor.  He is the patient older brother.  He might not be the best player on the floor, but he is wise and he is going to keep you from completely losing your head when things get tight.  And that’s why Michigan has a tremendous chance to go a long way in this year’s NCAA’s.  It’s WHY Michigan has been able to overcome the loss of Burke, Hardaway and McGary. 

Leadership. 

Leaders and the Best….are not just words in a song….

Why so sentimental on a Monday?  Dunno….Just hard to believe the regular season is over.  I’ve watched this team and this core for a long time and it’s going to be a different group next year.  At least, we’re not going to have Morgan.  And GRIII is probably gone…Stauskas?  Well, who could blame him if he wants to test the NBA waters?

Let’s get this B1G Tourney rolling and see where the seeding falls in the NCAA’s!

Great Morgan wrap over at mgoblog.com

Speaking of the NCAA’s

I’m an NCAA Tournament Nut.  That’s obvious.  I can’t seem to get enough to read or see enough research that might give me that little bit of edge when it comes to picking the 64 games that we are going to have to pick in just 1 WEEK'S TIME!  I want to be prepared and put together the best bracket(s) that I can.  Yes, I’ll probably do more than 1 this year…More on that this week and next week.  But in the meantime, do yourself a lunchtime favor and start clicking on and reading the above links - “Bracket Science” and “Get Smart About Sports Betting” for some really good tourney information….You can thank the MMPG by sending a small appreciation in the form of cash or check after you win the office pool!

In reviewing last year’s road to the 2013 NCAA Championship Game, Michigan had literally choked away the B1G title by losing to Penn State late in the season at HOME (remember that?) and then also losing at home to the Hoosier’s on a last second shot….Then, there were two rather non-memorable games in the B1G Tourney (more on conference tourney theory in a minute) and no one - I mean NO ONE- had Michigan doing much in the NCAA’s…Except for one slappy who shall remain nameless... 

Nope – Can’t do it.  I had Michigan winning the whole thing!  Yep!  Guard play, offensive production (PPP’s), low turnover rate and making them from the Charity Stripe were all stats I couldn’t ignore and let’s face it: I’m a slappy!  But, does this 2013-14 team have that same chemistry?  And can the Guards carry them through? 

In all honesty, I dunno’.  I know that the progress of Walton and LeVert have been nothing short of spectacular.  The prognosticators said there would be “No way” Michigan could maintain the offensive production that the 2012-13 team, especially from the guard position.  WRONG!  Michigan is actually out-scoring last year’s team (still) and has a higher offensive efficiency.  And high OE teams usually win the NCAA tournament over high DE teams (HT:  Bracket Science).

Stauskas is, well….Stuaskas.  Irvin has come along and Morgan and Horford are more than serviceable.  We have THE secret weapon in “Spike” and if RGIII shows up, yeah, this could be a team that gets to the 2^nd weekend and then, who knows?  Anyone who believes that they’re automatically in the Final 4 just making it to a 1 seed this season is delusional….. You could have a last minute shot that beats Kansas and a nice romp over an over-rated Gator team….but I digress.   Or am I re-living last year?  Maybe a little of both.  Whatever the case, it’s a wide open tourney for anyone that can slap six wins together…but that is never an easy task.

However, I do think this team “Deserves” a better seed than it will probably get.  I feel that way for a couple of reasons:  The B1G champion should be an auto 1 or 2 seed, period, regardless of non-con record, along with the ACC, PAC12, Big 12, and SEC.  You take the top 4 out of that group and give ‘em the 1 seed (No offense Witchy State).  If you have the weakest record out of the 5, you get the first 2 seed.  Then start seeding everybody else.  I also think Michigan’s “eye” test is one that shows they are a team that can beat anyone and deserve the nod.   And lastly, but with a lot less logic behind it, because I didn’t think Michigan deserved the 4 seed they got last year, even though that ALMOST worked out okay.

The 1988 Kansas Jayhawks received a Number 1 seed with 7, yes, count ‘em, 7 losses in the regular season, but won their conference championship and Conference Tournament. That was back when the committee truly relied on the “eye” test and the RPI (Really Poopy Index) was just coming into vogue – and of course, well, Kansas.  No 8 loss team has ever had a 1 Seed.  Now, it’s a whole lot more difficult to get to the 1 seed with more than 5-6 losses.  There has to be an extremely compelling reason due to the fact that your RPI/BPI (Bigger Poopy Index) will start looking ugly with more than 6 losses and the early losses count the same as later losses…But Michigan might just be able to make that case.  23-7 looks good and if they win 2 (or 3??!!!??) in the B1G Tourney, well, 25-8 or 26-7 is a legit 1 Seed, easy.  However, all this leads to a question:  is the 1 Seed all it’s cracked up to be?

The Rest of the B1G – The B1G Tourney is Set

Your Big Tourney Bracket presented without comment.  Check the game times and basically glue yourself to the remote starting Thursday at noon.

 

Conference Tourneys are truly a playground of sorts for coaches that are “NCAA LOCKS” in seeding and especially after their team has won the regular season Championship (Michigan).  In this case, JB will be thinking, “Six wins in March and April” and nothing else really matters by the time Friday’s Noon B1G Tourney Game rolls around –against either the Illini or Hoosiers.  I mean, yeah, it’d be nice to win the B1G Tourney, but at this point, I’m believing that Michigan has the 2 Seed locked up.  It would take a lot of explaining if they would drop to a 3 seed, even though I don’t have it that way below right now…(I’m expecting an early tourney exit from a different 2 seed, dropping that team down and moving Michigan up)  So, the thought of three games in three days for his starting line-up will be too much to bear for JB and I wouldn’t be surprised if you see a LOT of Albrecht and the rest of the back-ups in the game early on Friday (regardless of opponent) and possibly a tight game Saturday with the same bunch against either a fully focused Husker (?) squad, but a B1G Tourney Saturday exit is indeed a possibility none-the-less.  Again, having to potentially play at noon the following Thursday makes the extra day off that much more important.  Not saying the back-ups can’t win the thing…Just don’t get upset if JB and the Wolverines don’t put out a “Full Effort.”

Wiscy:  Has moved up to the NCAA 2 seed line in most of the predictor sites.  I don’t think (THINK) losing at Nebraska will take them out of that spot.  Once Lunardi has you in a spot, especially the top 2 seeds in all the brackets, it’s usually pretty reliable.  Again, expect Ryan to pull the same “Back-up” stunt in the tourney.   He can’t get a 1 seed, and it’s probably not that important to win the B1G Tourney at this time.

Sparty:  Wow…I dunno.  What is the excuse du-jour at this point?  Ahhh – here it is:  It seems the Izzo-Troll is infuriated with the REFS regarding the Suckeye game…A 31-10 Free Throw Attempt Advantage to ohio, but the suckeyes couldn’t make them or sparty would have been toast a lot sooner (And sparty was trying to lengthen game anyway so take about 6-7 fouls off). And aren’t Izzo-Troll teams defensive minded and therefor “Foul” prone to begin with?  I have a new name for Sparty:  The MSU Lame Excuses!  Let’s just call them the LE’s for short.  This team was a pre-season top 5 and got as high as #1 before the wheels came off.

However, I’ve said earlier and in previous years that no matter HOW BAD sparty looks going into the tourney, you can never underestimate the power of the Izzo-Troll…In fact, I am more concerned with sparty this year due to the ever increasing size of the chip on their shoulder.  Wherever they end up, there’s going to be higher seeds that will say, “Crap...Izzo” But, again, this could be a one and done in the making, too.  WAY TOO MANY TURNOVERS IN KEY MOMENTS!  Let’s see how they fair in the B1G Tourney and decide next week about the NCAA fate…BTW, would it be a “priceless” moment if somehow Sparty and Michigan met up for a 3^rd time this season and we crushed them again in the B1G Tourney(with back-ups)?  I THINK SO!!!!  Even getting another shot at the Suckeyes or Wiscy will be fun…but sparty would make it extra special.  Expect Sparty to take a completely different approach in the B1G Tourney.  Playing the starters the entire time and trying to improve their NCAA Seed line in the process while building up some much needed mo-mo will be the mantra.  If I was a betting man….

Nebraska: Locked up a bye in the B1G tourney.  That speaks volumes and beating Indiana twice in one season is huge and taking care of Wiscy on Senior Night solidified their spot in the NCAA.  And Miles has just made EVERY COACH’S SEAT who’s team finished in the 5 thru 12 spot in the B1G a little hotter right now…I’m talking Matta hot, if you believe the blogs.  The suckeyes are an unhappy group right now.  It’s a race between Miles and Beilien for COY…and I wouldn’t be too upset if Miles got it.

ohio:  Stumbling, bumbling in.  Please recall Suckeyes at Sparty in January…I believe that was a #3 vs. a #5 National match-up….And now the suckeyes are out of the top 25!  However, Matta’s group could still make a run.  Aaron Craft could get hot shooting…but the suckeyes offense is kind of a mess right now.  A projected NCAA 6 seed if there ever was one…And only like one 6 seed has ever made the FF…Not saying the suckeyes can’t, just sayin’ so all those suckeye fans can bemoan THAT little fact…Is Matta’s job secure or are the “Matta-Vest” rumors true?  See Sparty for the B1G Tourney approach.

Iowa:  I commend Iowa’s coaching staff for shutting down Hawkeye players’ Twitter accounts.  Bravo.  If they are not mature enough to handle it, get rid of it altogether.  Perhaps this should have been Izzo-Troll’s strategy vs. coming out and ranting about it openly to the press (as noted by the MMPG!)  Other than that, however, Iowa is going to slide sideways into the Tourney and will probably end up as an 8 or a 9 seed….So much potential, but not on the road to a Championship.  HOWEVA’, if they get a “First out 1 Seed” in the 2^nd game that’s beatable….look out!

Minnesota:  Did they play themselves out of the NCAA tourney with too many in conference losses?  They will be playing at full speed in the B1G Tourney for the NCAA autobid….

NCAA Tournament Locks:  Michigan, Sparty, Wiscy, ohio, Iowa, NEBRASKA (yep – I’m calling them a LOCK.  IF they don’t make it, call the President.)

MAYBE In Dayton and needing a couple of B1G Tourney wins:  Minnesota  

Last B1G Teams In:  NONE

Wishing they had two or three more victories right now or hoping for a B1G Tournament run:  NO ONE!!!

Praying to go on a MIRACULOUS 4 Game winning streak (In the B1G Tourney):  PSU, NWU, IU, Illinois and Purdue

Bracketology

Getting down to the proverbial “Nitty Gritty” and the chips are getting stacked in front of the big boys and the other little guys are scrambling for spots. 

Right now, the 4 number 1 seeds will be:

1.  Florida
2. Wichita State
3. Arizona
4. University of U-Decide (Villanova?  Dook? Syracuse?)

I was going to add the statement “First 1 seed to lose" and then I really started to study the 2 SEEDS!  And 3 Seeds….This could be the year of the better teams getting lower seeds and NO 1 SEEDS MAKE IT to the FF….Is that possible? You bet! 

The 2-4 seeds, in particular order because it DOES matter as we get closer:

2 Seeds:        Villanova, Wiscy, dook (by a thread), Kansas, Virginia, (an early out of any conference tourney for any of these teams and Michigan moves up)

Michigan (2.5 Seed if there ever was one!!!)

3 Seeds:        Iowa State, Creighton, Syracuse,

4 Seeds:        Cincinatti, St. Louis, sparty (?),San Diego State

With literally EVERYONE losing recently on the 2 Seed line, Michigan is sitting on a STRONG 3 seed right now.  All the projected 2 seeds have lost in the last 2 games and Michigan sweeping it’s last 4, well, it’s getting interesting.  Even though I do think a B1G Championship in the Tourney would probably ice a 2 seed (maybe a 1?), that’s a tall order for anyone – Michigan’s truly inexplicable loss to Charlotte in Puerto Rico is what is really dragging them down (Remember that?  Feels like a SEASON ago…).  That and 1 win over either dook or Arizona in Ann Arbor and the 2 seed would be a lock – Maybe even a 1 Seed.….Virginia is probably a 2 seed for reasons mentioned before but that loss to Maryland hurt.  Kentucky is out as a 4 (and probably down to a 6 seed) and I’m prepared for the deluge of Wildcat Nation to rain down upon me…but they are not a 4 Seed.  And then there’s little ole sparty…They just cannot be over-looked even though they have CRATERED at the end of the regular season.  I am leaving them as a 4 because they simply have a better RPI than the Wildcats – No other reason.  Syracuse could continue to fall as they have lost 2 games to RPI > 100 in GT and BC…

So, who does Michigan want to see in their bracket?  Believe it or not, I think it’s lining up well for Michigan if they get the nod I think they are going to get and they fall into the East Region which Lunardi and others have them in…So Milwaukee and then New York.  The Midwest, which would also be sweet, could be Raleigh (SUPER FAN!) and then Indianapolis…that would be awesome!

Wichita, Villanova (?), Arizona, Florida – I think the Shockers are the easiest 1 seed draw which is why I would love to see Michigan get the Midwest nod.  Kansas is also beatable – it won’t be easy, but let somebody else have that glory.  Arizona is tough and we didn’t match up well when they played in Ann Arbor – even though we only lost to them by a bucket.  Let somebody else deal with Florida this year – Donovan is a wild card coach and something tells me they are due, but we did handle them soundly last year.

2 Seeds:  Virginia (gulp), dook, – this is tough because I really DON’T think the committee would put the B1G champ and the highest B1G KEMPOM in the same bracket, so I’m leaving Wiscy out as a potential 2-3 match-up.   There really isn’t a preferred 2 seed at this point, but I’ll take Villanova (if they are the 2) and look at the Creighton tape.  I want no part of Virginia (even though Kempom has them quite low – I think they’re on a roll) and I would probably not be terribly upset with dook.

3 seeds – moot. Syracuse could drop a LOT further, but East Coast bias and well, Boeheim. 

4 Seeds – St. Louis, Cincin, SDSU, sparty:  The Bilikens were a bracket favorite last year (by a lot of pickers – but not THIS picker – I had Oregon in that 12-5 upset pick!) and they have improved this year.  My guess is there will be people picking AGAINST the Bilikens and this might be the year you want to stick with them through the round of 32 and maybe even the Sweet16…more on that when the brackets come out!  Cincin would be fine and I would love to get Kentucky, but I doubt that happens.

Yeah, for now, that would probably be the best 1-2-4 combo for Michigan:

1-Wichita (or Villanova?), 2-Villanova, and 4-St. Louis

All will be revealed Next SUNDAY NIGHT!!!

B1G CHAMPS!!! NCAA Here We Come!

You KNEW this post was coming if you watched the game last night:

HAIL TO THE VICTORS!!!

IT’S GREAT TO BE A MICHIGAN WOLVERINE!!!

The following photo is more than worthy of posting (on this lowly blog!) and should be considered for anyone that is an etymologist and is considering the need to update databases for more current references to the following word (for all the sparty and suckeye fans:  An Etymologist is a word specialist)

 

Definition:  SWAGGER – verb  1.  Walk or behave in a very confident and typically arrogant or aggressive way.  adj 1. To describe a verb, "His walk has a lot of swagger to it."

I don’t know when the Illini “knew” they were out of the game, but it had to occur to them during one of the TV time outs late in the first half.  Someone from the Illini had thrown in a three and Tirico and Dakich both echoed how important that basket was for the Illini if Illinois had any prayer of getting back in the game.  Then the Canadian Kid got a feed in the corner on Michigan’s end and threw down the 5^th consecutive three pointer taking Michigan up 19 points and announcer Mike Tirico made the comment to Dan Dakich that everyone else was thinking:

“How in the world do you beat that?”

How, indeed.  If you are having any doubts when filling out your bracket this year and Michigan gets to a game where you think, “Well, this is kind of a coin flip,” do yourself a favor:  Write in Michigan and don’t look back.  Don’t review it.  Just leave it there and walk away.

I won’t go into any more details of this game except to say that Michigan CLEARED THE BENCH and everyone got into the act.  Even Dan Dakich’s own son, Andrew, saw some playing time and was holding the ball at the end of the game.  It kind of reminded me of the Griese moment from the Rose Bowl.  Oh, how sweet it could be if that moment could actually be re-created on a Monday night in April...

Does this team have what it takes to win it all?  I seriously don’t see anyone beating Michigan when they are hitting on all cylinders like they were last night.  But shooting 60% from the field is an anomaly, a bit of a “tail event” if you are statistics nut.  And that’s not gonna’ happen in every game of the NCAA’s.

But, Michigan has won close games all season and they just keep hanging around when they aren’t shooting well.  Purdue had them…Then they didn’t.  Nebraska had them on their home court…And then they didn’t.  The Gophers even had them on their home floor…and then they didn’t.  Sparty – eh, what am I saying...Sparty was never in either game so we won’t go there.  (Boy, I said when I started writing this post that I wasn’t going to kick a dead horse, but sometimes I just can’t help myself!)

Let me ask you this question, all you defensive minded hoops people that haven’t bought into the “3 Point Philosophy of JB”.  I will let you pick any team you want from the 325 or so teams that can qualify for the NCAA Tournament in the following scenario:  It’s the second half with 10 minutes left and you have to put a team on the floor against another team that is up 15 points.  Who do you want and more importantly, Why?  Take your time.  I’ve already made my decision.  (But, I guess that’s obvious or I wouldn’t have asked the question.)

Whatever your bracket strategy is and whatever decision process you use to fill in the field, I would keep that scenario in mind.

In the meantime, savor what only seems to happen once every quarter century or so around Ann Arbor.  But something tells me we won’t have to wait another quarter century before it happens again!

GO BLUE!!!  Beat the Hoosiers!

Gophers Dig a Hole and Someting Special 1 Victory Away!!!

The Gophers came into Crysler fired up and looking to add to their resume by taking a Wolverine pelt home with them on Saturday.  However, as daunting as the Gophers looked early, they were no match for a jacked up Michigan Wolverine squad that had just learned that their arch nemesis Jolly Green Giants who were nipping at their heals for a tie of the B1G championship just lost…(More on that in a minute). 

Michigan realized, with a win, that they would at least assure themselves of a share of the B1G Championship with a victory over the Gophers.  And from that moment on, while there would be rallies and Gopher comebacks, I think everyone watching kind of knew it was over.  Spike Albrecht sank a long three and saw to it that the Gophers were not going to come into his house and do anything silly.  With lots of help from GRIII literally invoking his will on people and Jordan Morgan there to assist, those guys and the rest of the Woverines took care of business.

If you are Michigan fan and you aren’t or haven’t been watching for the last three seasons, I believe that we are witnessing something that is truly incredible.  Coach JB has brought something to the Men’s Basketball Team that Michigan used to have in Football:  Consistency, Excellence and an attitude that “Losing is simply unacceptable.”  Three years, a B1G Shared Championship – A trip to the Final Four and Championship Game and now, chances for a B1G Championship OUTRIGHT!

When that finally sunk in Saturday, my thoughts, and I hope the thoughts of some more “Mature” fans, went back to the last time Michigan had won a Big 10 Championship outright.

DATELINE 1986

Ronald Regan is the president of the United States.  Pixar Animation Studios is established by Steve Jobs and others….The Space Shuttle Challenger launched and explodes less than 73 seconds after lift-off taking the lives of all 7 astronauts, including Christy McAuliffe.. “Out Of Africa” was the year’s Best Picture...Geraldo Rivera opens Al Capone’s Vault.  Shia LeBouf and Lindsay Lohan are born and Cary Grant died… And there was this group of 4 High School Seniors two years earlier in 1984 (Thanks for the blast from the past CK!!)

Not to mention a group of Sky-Divers out in Tecumseh…(BTW – The young looking female to the right of the young-looking MMPG is actually my mom!  The three guys to the left are all Knights - Back when they had hair and a guy name KB in the middle) - Again - Thanks CK!

Something else happened in 1986:  The UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN Men’s Basketball Team wins the Big 10 Regular Season Championship OUTRIGHT!

Over a quarter of a century ago, a team wearing the Maize and Blue won the Big 10 Championship.  That’s way too long, but in some ways, it’s fitting in that an outright Big 10 Championship should be something that is prized, cherished and celebrated.  It’s not an easy thing to come by and to do it solo, well, it just doesn’t happen that often. 

Yeah, Michigan shared it 2 years ago and should have probably shared it last year. But, that’s the way the little orange leather ball bounces.  And Michigan is now one victory away from an outright Title.

It won’t be easy.   The Illini, a proud basketball school, really don’t want to let that happen on THEIR court come Tuesday.  And the Hoosiers seem to be racking up wins over ranked opponents like they still have some sort of shot at the NCAA tournament or something.  They aren’t going to come into Ann Arbor and lay down for anyone…

So, while some big hurdles have been overcome, there’s still one hurdle left.  Win one of the last two and the banner is Michigan’s alone.  Figure out a way to steal on in Champaign or keep the Hoosiers in check at Crysler.  Just one more.

It’s close….

REST OF THE B1G

Wiscy:  With Sparty’s loss, will probably get 2^nd place solo if they take care of business this week.  Michigan’s biggest threat to win the B1G championship will be the Cheeseheads.  Is there a Michigan – Wiscy Rubber game coming in the B1G Tourney? 

Sparty:  SOS….Same Ole’ Sparty.  I know that Spartan fans don’t want to hear that, but what other excuse is possibly left?  I watched the game against the Illini.  Get off the zebras’ backs.  There were not any “terrible” calls that didn’t go your way.  If anything, you got a couple of calls you probably shouldn’t have got.  The game was there for the taking, albeit the Illini played well enough to win, Sparty just couldn’t figure out a way, or worse, simply didn’t have the will to win.  Apple and Payne missing free throws at the end in the final minutes are a bad omen for things to come with this team…IF THEY DON’T FIX THEIR SH!#$^% RIGHT NOW!

Sparty is a riddle wrapped up in an enigma shrouded in a mystery.  THEY SHOULD be in the driver’s seat of the B1G.  Senior leadership, court presence, excellent coach…what gives?  Everyone is healthy, right?  OR as healthy as they can be, I guess.  I really don’t want to write Sparty off at this point as we know that Izzo-Troll can make very special things happen in March.  But, as I stated earlier, Izzo finds a way to win that game they just played in Breslin.  At this point…unless there are literally “miracles” performed between now and the NCAA’s…Well, Sparty is toast.  You know, SOS…SH!@#$ Onna' Shingle.

But, if there is one coach that can do it, it’s the Izzo-Troll.  So the MMPG isn’t going to count them out, not yet.

Iowa: Stops the losing streak at three games, but its hard to believe that this team is going to get the bye come the B1G Tourney….

NEBRAKSA:  How weird is the B1G this year?  With a win in the regular season that’s left, Nebraska could be looking AT A BYE in the B1G Conference Tourney (1st through 4th spots) where they could really use an additional game to pad their resume for the NCAA’S!!!! It’s totally, completely insane what is happening in the B1G this year.  If Nebraska DOESN’T make the NCAA’s, someone should call the police and file charges with the NCAA….

ohio:    Talk about a team limping sideways into March…They looked simply awful in Dis-Assembly Hall and they are not taking charge like the Suckeyes of last year.  I hate to say that this could be a 1 and done team come the NCAA’s, but right now…I got nothing else.  Except, well, I hate to go here..But if you could show up against Sparty, I might, MIGHT root for you!  Either way, I’ll watch cause somebody I hate is gonna lose next Sunday! 

Minnesota:  RPI and big wins against non-conference opponents in the pre-season is going to let Minnesota more than likely be the last B1G school into the NCAA’s…and they will have a LOSING B1G record to go with it!  Sad….

Indiana:  As the Hoosier fans keep saying – you keep ranking them and we’ll keep beating them.  I bet the Hoosier’s really wish they had a couple of those losses to Northwestern and Illinois back.  Can they make a run in the B1G tourney?  Could they win it and get into the NCAA’s?

NCAA Tournament Locks:  Michigan, Wiscy, Sparty, ohio, Iowa,

SHOULD BE Locked up, avoiding Dayton and needing a couple of wins:  NEBRASKA

Last B1G Teams In:  Minnesota – with a B1G losing record…

Wishing they had one or two more victories right now or hoping for a final  3-4 game run or B1G Tournament Victory:  NO ONE!!!

Roaming around waiting for any other sport to start:  PSU, NWU, IU, Illinois and Purdue

Bracketology

Big Shake Ups this week in the ole top lines of the brackets!

Right now, the 4 number 1 seeds will be:

1.  Florida (My new “first 1 seed to lose in the tournament” team)
2. Wichita State (Haven’t lost since last year’s Final Four)
3. Arizona – Another 1 seed that might not make it out of the first weekend to the Sweet 16….
4. Kansas  (Who else???)

The 2-4 seeds, in particular order because it DOES matter as we get closer:

2 Seeds:        Dook, Wiscy, Syracuse(1-3 in last 4 loses you the 1 seed – And Maryland should have beat you), Louisville

3 Seeds:        Virginia (I don’t know how you keep ACC reg-Season Champ off the three seed line), Creighton, San Diego State, Michigan

4 Seeds:        St. Louis, Villanova, sparty, Kentucky

Others:  Cincin, ISU, UNC (as a 4) and U-Mass

So, a LOT of movement this week.  Syracuse is out of the 1 seed.  I moved Kansas up, even with the loss, simply because they haven’t lost the last 3 out of 4 like someone else (ORANGE).  I moved Virginia up and finally introduced Wiscy into the top 4 and based on their RPI (which someone is REALLY GOING TO HAVE TO EXPLAIN TO ME ONE DAY!) makes them a higher seed than Michigan.  Michigan up to a 2 seed, also with Creighton and SDSU down to the three line.  I left St. Louis up on the 4 seed, but when everyone loses, well, its tough to make a move of someone lower to a higher seed.  Kentucky drops to a 4 seed (and maybe lower later) and Sparty is tight at a 4 right now.  IF they win out, I move them back up to a 3 and probably knock down SDSU.  But B1G overall weakness at the moment difficult to ignore…ohio losing to Hoosier’s yesterday hurt the B1G a lot.

The State of the Game

I hope that all Collegiate level AD’s and administrators are watching what is happening at Kentucky right now.  For those that are not as in tune with College Hoops and the shenanigans surrounding it:  Kentucky Basketball and its aura are kind of like Michigan, ohio, and Alabama Football and their auras  - BUT ALL ROLLED INTO ONE!  The fanbase that calls themselves “Kentucky Wildcat Basketball Fans” is one strange and whacky group.  And not just on the fringes, but in the big time donor area, also.  They pull the strings and make things happen, for real.

Pitino tried there and got canned.  Tubby Smith was in this blogger’s opinion, relatively successful.  But the Kentucky faithful simply said, “No – Not good enough.”   Which, when you ask any of them, “Well, what is a successful season and coaching goal?”  The answer you get is that the only thing good enough is an undefeated season with an NCAA Title….EVERY SEASON!

Now, even the realists who are Super Fans at other schools know that there’s no way you can win the NCCA Title in this day and age every year (Alabama in Football is finally figuring this out).  One and dones – Freshmen who come in and leave for the NBA after a single season, parody, the three point line  and overall balance in the game of college hoops has made a “dynasty” difficult to maintain.  There’s always going to be someone who’s going to come in and light someone up from the 3-point line and shoot 60% from the field.  It happens.  It happens in the tourney, too.  And, more than anything…It’s College Basketball!

So, why the diatribe on expectations?  Coach Calipari was the “Self-Proclaimed King” of recruiting the 1 and done specialists out of high school.  These are the next LeBron James type players that think they can forego college and head right to the pro’s.  Calipari’s 2011 team was of the 1 and done variety.  And that season it worked. 

This year, Kentucky’s freshmen are playing like, well….Freshmen.  Even after Calipari stated that he thought a 40-0 season was possible!!  Granted….They’re good, but they are not a cohesive unit.  And they lost to a very bad South Carolina team over the weekend.  That prompted ole John to opt out of the press conference and send in his assistant with some players.

So, is Calipari a good coach or a snake oil salesman that simply knows how to pan to the lowest common denominator of young men and say, “Hey, come play for me and you are following guys just like you that won an NCAA and then went pro!”  And if you’re the young kid that buys into that, just don’t expect to get a lot of help from your head coach.  He’ll put all of you together and throw you to the wolves…You are going to have to figure the winning part out buy yourselves…even though he’s making $5.2 million annually to watch you lose!

GAMES TO WATCH

TODAY

Domers @ North Carolina (7:00)

SUPER TUESDAY

ISU @ Baylor (7:00)
Michigan @ Illinois (7:00)
Florida @ South Carolina (7:00)
GTU @ Syracuse (7:00)
Alabama @ Kentucky (9:00)

WEDNESDAY

Louisville @ SMU (7:00)

Texas Tech @ Kansas (8:00)

THURSDAY

Memphis @ Cincinatti

IOWA @ Sparty (9:00)

FRIDAY
Rest and get ready for the Conference Tourneys!

SATURDAY

Kentucky @ Florida

ISU @ Okie State

Indiana @ Michigan (6:00)

Illinois @ Iowa (8:30)

SUNDAY

Sparty @ OSU (4:30)

Wiscy @ Nebraska (7:30)