The Brackets Are Out!
So, let’s get the bitchin’ out of the way
first:
Totally hosed squads that should have been
given a birth but weren’t:
USC – finished 12-4 in
conference (better than UCLA and Ariz State)
Oklahoma State – Beat Kansas twice,
Oklahoma twice
St. Mary’s - Frist time a 26 win
AP Top 25 team doesn’t get into the tourney.
And let’s meet the truly
undeserving:
Oklahoma – has won
4 games in 2018. After starting out
14-2, went 4-11 in the last 15 games…
Syracuse – Beat by
everyone in the ACC. Just in there to
keep the Boeheim F!@#%$ Factor (The BFF) on life support.
Texas – Couldn’t
win 2 games in a row for the entire Big iiX season
ASU – lucked their
way in somehow.
So, jumping right into the picks,
I’m looking at this a couple of different ways this season. I’m looking at streaky hot teams and I’m also
running a completely chalky bracket that will look at the www.MasseyRatings.com
for each match-up as it progresses through the tourney. You’re going to see some surprising picks
based on Massey. You’ll also see that
the MMPG is alive and well and I will be basing some picks just based on my guy
and what I’ve seen over the course of this season.
But before I even do that, here’s
some Bracket Science (The Art Of Completing and NCAA Bracket) from all
sorts of different sources (I love these NUGGETS of information and I keep them
in the back of my mind as I make my picks):
Point Spread Underdogs in 8-9
games are 38-18-1 with 34 outright wins since 2003
No more than 2 number 1 Seeds in the FF. in 34 of 39 seasons, either 0,1,or 2 #1 Seeds
made it. Since all 4 made it in 2008, only 12
have made #1 Seeds have made FF in last 9 years!!!
Since 2012, BigiiX has had 15 Top 3
seeds. 4 have LOST IN THE FIRST
ROUND!!! TT vs SFA????
Witchy State has never gotten out
of the Round of 32 when FAVORED. (WVU
in Massey Prediction is 50-50 with Witchy State)
Which #2 Seed goes down? There have been only 4 seasons since 1985 that all 4
#2 Seeds have made the Sweet 16. (The Weakest #2 this season – Cincinnati?)
MVC teams are an incredible 8-0 in the round
of 64 over the last 5 Seasons – with 4 of the 8 wins coming as
lower seed! Loyola over Miami….
The last 6 times Cincinnati has been a top
4 Seed, they didn’t get out of the first weekend.
Over the last 5 seasons, a team seeded 7th
or worse has reached the FF. Who’s
the Big Sleeper this season?
Xavier has never been to a FF.
Kansas has been
a #1
seed 7 times under Coach Self and made the FF ONCE!!!!
Historically, on average, 5
double digit seeds move on to the Round of 32.
In 2016, a record 10 DOUBLE DIGIT
SEEDS Moved on to the Round of 32.
There has never been a season where
a Double-Digit Seed hasn’t advanced (since 1985).
In the last 5 Seasons, at
least 1 winner of the 11 Seed “Play-In Game” has advanced to the 2nd
round!
And KenPom of the Top 25 Seeds…
Strategy: If assuming 5-6 Double Digits moving on,
breakdown is probably one 10-7, one 11-6, one 12-5, and one 13-4, even though
those are the hardest to pick. So,
figure two 11-6 upsets as the play in team has always advanced.
SOUTH
Essentials:
8-9
Winner: K-State (2-point dog)
11-6 Upset: Loyola Chicago over Miami (nervous....)
Nevada
over Texas – even though I like Shaka Smart in March
Cincinnati
ekes a victory out over Nevada to make Sweet 16
Potential
for a 13-4 Upset: Wright over Tennessee (-13.5)
– Uh, No. A little research and this was not a candidate
for the big upset. Wright barely
averages 70 PPG and Tennessee is bigger and better….
Commentary: Virginia lucked out in this
bracket. Cincinnati as the 2-Seed is
probably the easiest 2-Seed out there, not to mention the 3-4-5 Seeds being the
most on again – off again teams out there. Tennessee will be a difficult out and I have
them going up against Virginia (against Massey – it has Cincinnati winning
the Tenn-Cinci game) but Tennessee is scrappier and I’m
not sure I trust the Bearcats. Chic
Upset Pick: Loyola of Chicago. Massey has that one as Loyola being the
11-Seed Favorite (And Oddshark.com has it as a PICK or with Loyola as a 1-point
dog.) You’re going to hear a lot
about Steph Curry’s alma mater Davidson having a shot at Kentucky. I’m not buying that as Kentucky looked a LOT
BETTER during the SEC Tourney. I’m
taking Kentucky right now over Arizona (Massey has it as a 50-50), but
I may change that pick. (I just changed that pick. Oops, I’m changing it again. Damn. Flip
a coin and don’t look back.) As
much as I’d like to say, “Take the Kentucky-Arizona winner to beat
Virginia!”, I can’t. I think the Cav’s
are really that good. Chalk the
rest of the way with Virginia raising a Regional Banner. Unless
Kentucky catches fire. Or Arizona….DAMMIT!!!!
EAST
Essentials:
8-9: Alabama (-2) over VaTech
UCLA/St.
Bonaventure winner over Florida
Butler -
Arkansas is a PICK-EM Game. I’ll go
Butler…
Potential
for a 14-3 Upset: Stephen F Austin over
Texas Tech (-11.5) POTENTIAL!!! This is
a classic Defense (TT only allows 64 PPG and SFA averages 88 PPG) Which one do
you like? Offense or Defense? And TT Guard is not 100%...And SFA has done
this in the past as a 14 seed and a 12 Seed.
Plus Big iiX misery getting out of 2nd round…If you’re
looking for a 14-3 and have to have one on your bracket, this might be the one…
Commentary: Villanova got a rather easy path to the FF as
well. Witchy State and WVU meeting for
a potential 2nd round match-up is a coin flip (Massey has it 50-50). That game will suck any life out of the
winning team making the next game against the Wildcats really tough. I’m taking WVU there, but again, I
understand if you like Witchy State. I
had Texas
Tech as a sleeper earlier in the season, but now I’m not so sure – They are
still injured in some key spots. But I don’t trust the Gators, either,
so I’ll take the play in 11 Seed to take on Purdue.
And let’s not forget that a play in team (either 11 or 12 seed) has won
AT LEAST ONE GAME in the first round each season since they introduced the play
in game. Can UCLA or the Bonnies be that team? Syracuse actually made the FF as
an 11-Seed Play in. Purdue may finally
prove itself to be a Final Four team and raise the Regional Banner for Painter.
MIDWEST
Essentials:
8-9: NC State over Seton Hall (-2)
New
Mexico State over Clemson (-4.5) more below
#12 Seed
New Mexico Sweet 16
ASU/Syracuse
over TCU (the BFF is in affect here)
Rhode
Island over Oklahoma (But I’m nervous)
Potential
for a 14-3 Upset: Bucknell vs. Sparty
(-14) If there’s ANYONE that knows EXACTLY HOW TO LOSE as a high seed, it’s
Sparty. They were
16
point favorites over MTSU when they were a 2-Seed and LOST and
destroyed everyone’s brackets 2 years ago.
And Bucknell, who has won two NCAA games in recent history,
comes from the Patriot League, which isn’t a bunch of pushovers (Lehigh also
won a 1st round game in recent history). Oddshark has Bucknell winning
the game…Again, very similar to TT vs. SFA, Bucknell averages in the 80’s on
scoring and Sparty’s Defense is it’s strength, allowing 60’s PPG. However, I’ll pass on this one…but you never
know.
Commentary: By far, the toughest of the brackets. Sparty got Detroit, but lost in the bargain. To make the Final 4, they’ve got to beat Duke
WEST
Essentials:
8-9: FSU over Mizzou (Mizzou is down a player due
to DWI over the weekend)
Providence
over Texas A&M (-4.5)
SDSU over
the suckeyes!!!! (see more below!!!)
Potential
for a 14-3 Upset: Montana vs Michigan
(-12) In full disclosure, I’m not as nervous about this game as the stats would
suggest. See Oddshark summary (Montana
wins – maybe). Michigan
rarely comes out flat in the 1st game of the tourney under Beilein
and I think Montana will have their hands full with Wagner and MAAR. Not to mention Simpson should take their
guard out of the game…Still, upset potential is there!
Commentary: In what is probably the most interesting
bracket, the West has Xavier, the team everyone is picking to have
an early out. Which, I dunno 9however
they are the weakest #1Seed per Pomeroy above).
They match up pretty well with everyone. Yes, north carolina will be a game, but this
isn’t the same Michigan team that got clobbered by 15 in the Dean Dome
way back in November. It doesn’t get
ugly until the next round. UPSET
ALERT: the suckeyes have to play the
South Dakota State Jackrabbits who have the number 6 scorer in the country, Mike
Daum, who was the 2nd leading scorer in the country last
year. I remember the Jackrabbits
almost upsetting Maryland in the first round 2 years ago and Daum is now a
senior and he wants to win an NCAA game. And he has help in freshman Point Guard
David Jenkins. Look for the Jackrabbits
to crack the suckeyes in a must have 12-5 upset. Massey likes the
suckeyes, but I don’t. The suckeyes
faded down the stretch and I’m not sure they can turn it back on. Take Providence over a lousy Texas A&M team
and chalk everywhere else.
Final Four
Michigan’s toughest challenge is upon them
and I’ve been saying all along that Virginia is vulnerable, if they play the
right team. Massey doesn’t like it, but
I like Michigan in the upset.
Duke and Villanova will battle it out and Duke and their talent will
prevail. In a classic rematch from the
Fab Five Freshmen season, it’ll be Duke and Michigan re-matching for all the
marbles. I think Beilein’s
Boys find a way to pull this off this season and Michigan Raises the National
Championship Banner!
In non alternative-MMPG world, it
will be Virginia and Villanova playing for the Championship and Virginia breaks
the curse and takes home the hardware.
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