They're HERE!! The Brackets are HERE!

The Brackets Are Out!

So, let’s get the bitchin’ out of the way first: 

Totally hosed squads that should have been given a birth but weren’t:

USC – finished 12-4 in conference (better than UCLA and Ariz State)

Oklahoma State – Beat Kansas twice, Oklahoma twice

St. Mary’s - Frist time a 26 win AP Top 25 team doesn’t get into the tourney. 

And let’s meet the truly undeserving:

Oklahoma – has won 4 games in 2018.  After starting out 14-2, went 4-11 in the last 15 games…

Syracuse – Beat by everyone in the ACC.  Just in there to keep the Boeheim F!@#%$ Factor (The BFF) on life support.

Texas – Couldn’t win 2 games in a row for the entire Big iiX season

ASU – lucked their way in somehow.

So, jumping right into the picks, I’m looking at this a couple of different ways this season.  I’m looking at streaky hot teams and I’m also running a completely chalky bracket that will look at the www.MasseyRatings.com for each match-up as it progresses through the tourney.  You’re going to see some surprising picks based on Massey.  You’ll also see that the MMPG is alive and well and I will be basing some picks just based on my guy and what I’ve seen over the course of this season.

But before I even do that, here’s some Bracket Science (The Art Of Completing and NCAA Bracket) from all sorts of different sources (I love these NUGGETS of information and I keep them in the back of my mind as I make my picks):

Point Spread Underdogs in 8-9 games are 38-18-1 with 34 outright wins since 2003

No more than 2 number 1 Seeds in the FF.  in 34 of 39 seasons, either 0,1,or 2 #1 Seeds made it.  Since all 4 made it in 2008, only 12 have made #1 Seeds have made FF in last 9 years!!!

Since 2012, BigiiX has had 15 Top 3 seeds.  4 have LOST IN THE FIRST ROUND!!!  TT vs SFA????

Witchy State has never gotten out of the Round of 32 when FAVORED.  (WVU in Massey Prediction is 50-50 with Witchy State)

Which #2 Seed goes down?  There have been only 4 seasons since 1985 that all 4 #2 Seeds have made the Sweet 16. (The Weakest #2 this season – Cincinnati?)

MVC teams are an incredible 8-0 in the round of 64 over the last 5 Seasons – with 4 of the 8 wins coming as lower seed!  Loyola over Miami….

The last 6 times Cincinnati has been a top 4 Seed, they didn’t get out of the first weekend.

Over the last 5 seasons, a team seeded 7^th or worse has reached the FF.  Who’s the  Big Sleeper this season?

Xavier has never been to a FF.

Kansas has been a #1 seed 7 times under Coach Self and made the FF ONCE!!!!

Historically, on average, 5 double digit seeds move on to the Round of 32. 

In 2016, a record 10 DOUBLE DIGIT SEEDS Moved on to the Round of 32. 

There has never been a season where a Double-Digit Seed hasn’t advanced (since 1985).

In the last 5 Seasons, at least 1 winner of the 11 Seed “Play-In Game” has advanced to the 2^nd round!

And KenPom of the Top 25 Seeds…

Strategy:  If assuming 5-6 Double Digits moving on, breakdown is probably one 10-7, one 11-6, one 12-5, and one 13-4, even though those are the hardest to pick.  So, figure two 11-6 upsets as the play in team has always advanced. 

SOUTH

Essentials:

8-9 Winner:  K-State (2-point dog)

11-6 Upset:  Loyola Chicago over Miami (nervous....)

Nevada over Texas – even though I like Shaka Smart in March

Cincinnati ekes a victory out over Nevada to make Sweet 16

Potential for a 13-4 Upset:  Wright over Tennessee (-13.5) – Uh, No.   A little research and this was not a candidate for the big upset.  Wright barely averages 70 PPG and Tennessee is bigger and better….

Commentary:  Virginia lucked out in this bracket.  Cincinnati as the 2-Seed is probably the easiest 2-Seed out there, not to mention the 3-4-5 Seeds being the most on again – off again teams out there.  Tennessee will be a difficult out and I have them going up against Virginia (against Massey – it has Cincinnati winning the Tenn-Cinci game) but Tennessee is scrappier and I’m not sure I trust the Bearcats.  Chic Upset Pick:  Loyola of Chicago.  Massey has that one as Loyola being the 11-Seed Favorite (And Oddshark.com has it as a PICK or with Loyola as a 1-point dog.)  You’re going to hear a lot about Steph Curry’s alma mater Davidson having a shot at Kentucky.  I’m not buying that as Kentucky looked a LOT BETTER during the SEC Tourney.  I’m taking Kentucky right now over Arizona (Massey has it as a 50-50), but I may change that pick. (I just changed that pick.  Oops, I’m changing it again.  Damn.  Flip a coin and don’t look back.)  As much as I’d like to say, “Take the Kentucky-Arizona winner to beat Virginia!”, I can’t.  I think the Cav’s are really that good.  Chalk the rest of the way with Virginia raising a Regional Banner.   Unless Kentucky catches fire.  Or Arizona….DAMMIT!!!!

EAST

Essentials:

8-9:  Alabama (-2) over VaTech

UCLA/St. Bonaventure winner over Florida

Butler - Arkansas is a PICK-EM Game.  I’ll go Butler…

Potential for a 14-3 Upset:  Stephen F Austin over Texas Tech (-11.5) POTENTIAL!!!  This is a classic Defense (TT only allows 64 PPG and SFA averages 88 PPG) Which one do you like?  Offense or Defense?  And TT Guard is not 100%...And SFA has done this in the past as a 14 seed and a 12 Seed.  Plus Big iiX misery getting out of 2^nd round…If you’re looking for a 14-3 and have to have one on your bracket, this might be the one…

Commentary:  Villanova got a rather easy path to the FF as well.  Witchy State and WVU meeting for a potential 2^nd round match-up is a coin flip (Massey has it 50-50).  That game will suck any life out of the winning team making the next game against the Wildcats really tough.  I’m taking WVU there, but again, I understand if you like Witchy State.  I had Texas Tech as a sleeper earlier in the season, but now I’m not so sure – They are still injured in some key spots. But I don’t trust the Gators, either, so I’ll take the play in 11 Seed to take on Purdue.  And let’s not forget that a play in team (either 11 or 12 seed) has won AT LEAST ONE GAME in the first round each season since they introduced the play in game. Can UCLA or the Bonnies be that team? Syracuse actually made the FF as an 11-Seed Play in.  Purdue may finally prove itself to be a Final Four team and raise the Regional Banner for Painter. 

MIDWEST

Essentials:

8-9:  NC State over Seton Hall (-2)

New Mexico State over Clemson (-4.5) more below

#12 Seed New Mexico Sweet 16

ASU/Syracuse over TCU (the BFF is in affect here)

Rhode Island over Oklahoma (But I’m nervous)

Potential for a 14-3 Upset:  Bucknell vs. Sparty (-14) If there’s ANYONE that knows EXACTLY HOW TO LOSE as a high seed, it’s Sparty.  They were 16 point favorites over MTSU when they were a 2-Seed and LOST and destroyed everyone’s brackets 2 years ago.  And Bucknell, who has won two NCAA games in recent history, comes from the Patriot League, which isn’t a bunch of pushovers (Lehigh also won a 1^st round game in recent history).  Oddshark has Bucknell winning the game…Again, very similar to TT vs. SFA, Bucknell averages in the 80’s on scoring and Sparty’s Defense is it’s strength, allowing 60’s PPG.  However, I’ll pass on this one…but you never know.

Commentary:  By far, the toughest of the brackets.  Sparty got Detroit, but lost in the bargain.  To make the Final 4, they’ve got to beat Duke

(Izzo 1-11 lifetime against Duke) and Kansas.  That’s a tall order for a Turnover prone team like Sparty to fill, even though a lot of people are picking Sparty to go all the way.  Kind of like 2 years ago when Sparty was supposed to win it all and Middle Tennessee State said, “Uh-Uh.”   I like New Mexico State here to Crash the Sweet 16 Party as both Clemson and Auburn are kind of limping into the tourney with a lot of injuries at this point.  And New Mexico State can play DEFENSE (K-Pom #14 Adj Eff), but they’ll both be big upsets according to Massey.  However, that was when Clemson and Auburn were healthy and now they’re not.  So, gamble.  Speaking of gambling, the BFF is in full affect so you might as well take the play in team over TCU, who’s probably over-seeded as a 6 Seed.  It’ll be Duke and Kansas in a classic Regional Final with Duke taking down the nets.   Go chalk the rest of the way. 

WEST

Essentials:

8-9:  FSU over Mizzou (Mizzou is down a player due to DWI over the weekend)

Providence over Texas A&M (-4.5)

SDSU over the suckeyes!!!! (see more below!!!)

Potential for a 14-3 Upset:  Montana vs Michigan (-12) In full disclosure, I’m not as nervous about this game as the stats would suggest.  See Oddshark summary (Montana wins – maybe).  Michigan rarely comes out flat in the 1^st game of the tourney under Beilein and I think Montana will have their hands full with Wagner and MAAR.  Not to mention Simpson should take their guard out of the game…Still, upset potential is there!

Commentary:  In what is probably the most interesting bracket, the West has Xavier, the team everyone is picking to have an early out.  Which, I dunno 9however they are the weakest #1Seed per Pomeroy above). 

Massey has Gonzaga with a pretty reasonable win percentage over Xavier, so I’m going with Massey and the Zags, who play fast and can shoot the 3.  Obviously, I like Michigan (So does Massey) to hoist the banner in this region and you can see that Michigan will be favored over everyone they play in this region.  Despite what many of you have texted, e-mailed or talked to me about, this was a great region for Michigan to draw. 

They match up pretty well with everyone.  Yes, north carolina will be a game, but this isn’t the same Michigan team that got clobbered by 15 in the Dean Dome way back in November.  It doesn’t get ugly until the next round.  UPSET ALERT:  the suckeyes have to play the South Dakota State Jackrabbits who have the number 6 scorer in the country, Mike Daum, who was the 2^nd leading scorer in the country last year.  I remember the Jackrabbits almost upsetting Maryland in the first round 2 years ago and Daum is now a senior and he wants to win an NCAA game.  And he has help in freshman Point Guard David Jenkins.  Look for the Jackrabbits to crack the suckeyes in a must have 12-5 upset. Massey likes the suckeyes, but I don’t.  The suckeyes faded down the stretch and I’m not sure they can turn it back on.  Take Providence over a lousy Texas A&M team and chalk everywhere else. 

Final Four

Michigan’s toughest challenge is upon them and I’ve been saying all along that Virginia is vulnerable, if they play the right team.  Massey doesn’t like it, but I like Michigan in the upset.  Duke and Villanova will battle it out and Duke and their talent will prevail.  In a classic rematch from the Fab Five Freshmen season, it’ll be Duke and Michigan re-matching for all the marbles.  I think Beilein’s Boys find a way to pull this off this season and Michigan Raises the National Championship Banner! 

In non alternative-MMPG world, it will be Virginia and Villanova playing for the Championship and Virginia breaks the curse and takes home the hardware.