Friday, October 19, 2018

The FMQ Week #8: The Revenge Tour Continues


I KNOW This Is a CFB Blog, But…
When something as egregious as this happens, I’ve got to get it off my chest…
For those of you that aren’t America’s Favorite Past Time Fans, continue down to the FMQ.  For those of you that are, you should be appalled that MLB replay couldn’t get this call correct. 
 Clearly, there was fan interference.  And this is how the rule reads:

The ball becomes dead, and the umpire will award any bases or charge any outs that, in his judgment, would have occurred without the interference. Such interference often occurs when a spectator in the first row of seats reaches onto the field to attempt to grab a fair or foul fly ball.

BUT!!!!!  Once that ball goes “into the stands”, the fans can do whatever they want.
Betts clearly appeared to be reaching over the railing as Altuve's ball descended. And major league rules state that once the ball crosses the threshold from the playing field into the stands, it's fair game for fans as well as the defender.
Except (Umpire) Joe West saw things differently from most of the 43,277 in Minute Maid Park 
So, in the Boston-Astros Game four, Altuve bangs one deep to right field and Betts goes up for it.  Several fans appear to hit his glove, but at the same time, I’m not sure he was going to be able to make that catch.  AND THE BALL CLEARLY BROKE THE PLANE AND WAS IN THE STANDS!  The Right Field Ump West calls it an “out”.
Repeated replay doesn’t over-rule it. 
My take:  How does the ump make that call?  If he merely throws both hands up and ruled a “dead ball”, the replay booth would have then been able to “make the call”, which, after watching it several times, I think – THINK – that not only would the catch would have been missed by Betts, but the ball was clearly over the rail and in the stands when the interference occurred.
It should have been an HR. 
(Watch the trajectory and Betts mitt BEFORE the interference happens).  In any case, an out was very favorable call to Boston, IMHO.  And I don’t think it was an out…Worst Case:  Ground Rule Double?
Even in the Era of Replay, they can’t get calls right.
And it’s sad that fans haven’t learned to back off in those situations.  I have to believe that everyone has seen what Steve Bartman of Chicago Cubs infamy and the ESPN 30 for 30 “Catching Hell” has gone through. If you’re a lucky enough fan to be in the front row of a PLAY-OFF GAME, get the hell out of the way, fergodsakes!
That is all…
THE FMQ
I gave too many points last week.  That’s never a good idea, but man, it seemed like there were teams out there that were just ready to throw in the towel. College Football – go figure.  I love that I nailed the Tennessee and LSU upset picks.  Should gone moneyline on those, and I will admit I actually considered it with Tennessee.

There’s more elimination games this week, though not as obvious as last week.  And there’s some “quiet” rivalry games that teams just wanna’ win. 
This week’s picks:
Oklahoma @ TCU (+8):  This is a scary spread...  In a way, I would have had the Laters as more of a 13 or 13.5 point spread in this one.  And THEN I would easily take the Horned Frogs as double-digit home dogs.  The problem now is the Horned Frogs just haven’t looked good the last couple of weeks.  The Texas Beat Down was for real and Texas Tech made the Frogs look very vanilla.  And I just don’t know how the Frogs bounce back.  And the Laters are coming off a bye…   
Take the Laters and lay the 8 for $20
Cincinnati @ Temple (-3.5):  Cincinnati is undefeated, but they really haven’t played the strength of the American Conference yet.  And Temple is not a bad team, even though they’ve figured out a way to lose 3 games...  They knocked off Maryland earlier in the season and racked up a boatload of yards in the process.  But S&P+ likes the Bearcats more than the Owls.  I have to take the higher ranked team getting points.
Take Cincinnati and the 3.5 for $20
Bama @ Tennessee (+30.5 MONEYLINE:  $100: $3,250):  This is one of those “quiet rivalries” I was eluding to earlier.   Straight off their upset win over Auburn, the Vols might be feeling a lot better about themselves this week.  I’m not saying they can beat Satan’s Warriors, but they’ve gotta’ play the game.  Bama is a little banged up and I think – THINK – the Vols can cover that many points at home.
Take Tennessee and the 30.5 for $20
Just for Shits and Giggles:  MONEYLINE - Tennessee $10 - $325 (I can be wrong 32.5 times on a bet like this!!!)
MSU @ LSU (-6.5):  LSU is fresh off a pantsing of SEC East favorite Georgia.  In fact, there were a lot of fans that were picking the Dawgs to win the SEC this season.   MSU is 1-2 in the SEC under Moorehead with losses to Kentucky and Florida, both SEC East Schools.  So, technically, they’re still perfect in the SEC West.  But I don’t think the Tigers are going to take their foot off the gas this week and the Bulldogs might get steamrolled…
Take the Tigers and lay the 6.5 for $20
Oregon @ WSU (-3):  I know – I did a double-take when I saw this spread, too.    Oregon is the better team on paper, but the Pirate knows a thing or two about Shocktober football and how to upset better teams. And this is in Pullman.  And GAMEDAY is finally going to Pullman after Ole Crimson
has spent 15 years (216 consecutive Game Day Appearances) going to all the Gameday locations.  It’s a 7:30 (4:30 Local) ET start, meaning it’ll finish after sunset.  Still, aren’t the Ducks getting 3 points tempting?
Take Oregon and the 3 for $20
Gophers @ Nebraska (-4.5):  Wow.  A Winless Team is giving points at home to a team that just played THE STU to the end of a game that was closer than the score indicated.   This is a tricky spread.  I like the Cornsuckers to score their first W this week.  They SHOULD HAVE WON LAST WEEK.  Still, I have a quirky feeling this could be a 1 or 2-point contest when it’s all said and done.   
Take the Gophers and the 4.5 for $20
Northwestern @ Rutgers (+20):  Right now, I’m looking for any excuse to bet AGAINST Rutgers.  Rutgers is a miserable 2-5 vs. the number and they don’t cover at home.  20 seems like a lot to lay with the Purple Kitties, but they’re still riding high with wins over LNU and the Cornsuckers.  I look for Fitzy’s Boys to win this game waking away
Take the Purple Kitties and lay the 20 for $50
Maryland @ Iowa (-8.5):  This game and spread is puzzling….I really thought the Black Birds would be favored by double digits in this one, based on how Maryland has played on the road.  Meaning:  They haven’t played well AT ALL on the road.  This is only the 2nd time for Maryland at Kinnick, and for all intents and purposes, it’s really the first time for this crew as the last time the Terps were there was 2015.  I don’t like the Terps chances to win in this contest at all, and covering will be an issue…
Take Iowa and lay the 8.5 for $30
Vandy @ Kentucky (-10.5):  I thought Vandy was a better team a month ago.  Lately, they’ve done nothing but make me sorry for taking them and the points.  Kentucky is coming off a bye week and will have fresh legs and be in front of a home crowd.  I like the Wildcats walking away in this one…
Take Kentucky and lay the 10.5 for $30
NC State @ Clemson (-17.5):  Again, WHERE IN THE HELL DID THIS SPREAD COME FROM?  If you’ve watched this game for the last several years, you understand that NC State is not afraid of Clemson, has almost upset Clemson a couple of times, and is more or less built to beat Clemson (NC State has RECEIVERS and a QB – Clemson has secondary issues).  While the Wolfpack might not win, I’m certain they’ll keep it closer than 17.5…
Take the Wolfpack and the 17.5 for $30
THE STU @ Purdue (OPEN +14.5 TODAY:  12.5 MONEYLINE - $100:$400):  This spread is another head scratcher.   If you haven’t watched Purdue this season, you’re missing out.  Brohm’s offense is good.  REALLY GOOD.  And THE STU’s Defense (especially the secondary) is their achiles heel.  Fun Fact:  Which team leads the B1G with their Defense giving up plays of 30+ yards or more??? THE STU.  ANOTHER FUN FACT:  Which team leads the B1G with plays over 30+ yards on offense?  You got it – Purdue!!!  And they’re not called the “Spoilermakers” for nothing.  This game could easily swing in favor of the Spoilers and 50K Boiler fans could storm the field after the upset. 
Take the Spoilers and the 14.5 for $30
Take Purdue and the MONEYLINE for $20
Michigan @ LNU (Open: +5 TODAY: +7 O/U:  41):
Sigh.  I’m REALLY hoping for, as AP put it when Nebraska came to the Big House, “A Good Old-Fashioned ASS-KICKING!” in East Lansing tomorrow.  This will be the 111th meeting and with an overall record of 69-36-5, Michigan has truly DOMINATED their little brothers from the north since they started playing this game.  However, recent history and D’antoeiunsd suggest there may be a change in that trend.  LNU, under aforementioned “ass-hat” of a coach, is 8-2 straight up and 10-0 “against the spread” in the last 10 games. 
10-0 ATS. 
That’s unbelievable for a “Gamblor’s” mind.  It’s actually mind-boggling.  That’s not even a trend.  It’s an outlier.  It really shouldn’t happen.  It implies that not only is this the “biggest” game for LNU, it’s the one they focus on all season.  What’s even more unbelievable is that Michigan was favored in 5 of those last 10 contests.  Meaning that LNU beat the spread when they were dogs AND when they were favored. 
Looking at the numbers is something I do a lot. 
This Season, Michigan is DOMINATING in every category.  It’s not even close (yes, LNU rushing defense.  But the best rushing team they’ve played up to PSU was ranked 57th.  PSU, ranked in the teens when it comes to rushing, managed some rushing yards last week but still lost).  LNU’s overall offense ranks in the 70’s and they come in at S&P+ overall rank of 33, down two slots after WINNING against PSU.  LNU hasn’t started the same 5 guys on the offensive line once this season.  Michigan effectively STEAMROLLED one of the better D-Lines in the B1G last Saturday, piling up yards on the ground.  And yet, somehow, I’m nervous heading into this game and I’m questioning the intangibles
Michigan has lost 2 games to these clowns with Harbaugh at the helm (the other 6 losses in the last 8 came under Hoke and RichRod, who everyone inside and outside of the B1G beat regularly).  Harbaugh’s 2 losses were games that were lost in the Big House.  The Punt in 2015 (Where Michigan was 99% to win) and last season’s monsoon where Michigan’s John O’Korn tried to pass a waterlogged football in terrible conditions, turning it over 5 times (3 ints and 2 fumbles) in the 2nd half trying to overcome a 4 point deficit.  Come to think of it, Michigan in The Big House vs. LNU for Harbaugh has been a bad, if not terrible, thing.  These same LNU F-er’s broke Harbaugh’s arm (I’ll never forget that) in the Big House and ended his season in 1984.  Michigan went 6-6 that season (The MMQ’s Freshman Year and Bo’s worst season ever – Yeah, that sucked).  Harbaugh would be back, however, the following
season on his own “Revenge Tour” and Michigan DESTROYED a FAVORED LNU team 31-0 in East Lansing, holding Heisman hopeful Lorenzo “I’m Not” White to 47 yards in that contest, effectively taking him out of the Heisman race.  (The MMQ was in attendance with Special K and Special K’s older brother to witness that beatdown in person.  Special K – thanks for that ticket!!!Michigan would finish the “1985 Revenge Tour” number 2 overall (10-1-1) in the national rankings with a victory over Nebraska in the Fiesta Bowl.  (Iowa and Chuck Long was the lone loss at 12-10 in Kinnick and Michigan tied the Illini 3-3 in Champaign)
But I digress.  Back to the intangibles:  Arrested LNU players (Assault, sexual assault, DUI’s, etc) with police records that are still on the team? Check.
Racist players re-instated on the team?  Check.
There will be LNU cheating in the secondary with grabby DBs, which, is a given.  Poking guys in the eyes – of course, what else do you expect from a bunch of cheaters?  Spitting, Fisticuffs and Nut-Sack Punches are just a sampling of LNU’s favorite post tackle rituals.  Referees with flags in their pockets – where else would they be?  Overall poor sportsmanship – win at any and all costs, gimmicks and chicanery are all just the tip of the ugly green iceberg.  Not to mention Sparty Bob is probably still running the F-ing clock in East Lansing.
Oh, and it’s supposed to rain, too!
You know what…
Screw all of that BS!!!
History gets righted on Saturday and the tradition of clobbering LNU 2 out of every 3 games (or more often) is going to be restored.  And the green slime is sent on their way to an 8-4 or 7-5 season.    
Take Michigan and lay the 5 for $100
Take the OVER for $50
PARLAY!
3 Bet/Team Parlay:   6-1
Michigan – Michigan/LNU OVER – NC State:  $50
TOTAL BET:  $520
Bank:  $212

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