Friday, September 21, 2018

The FMQ Week #4 - It Ain't Easy


Well, last week wasn’t a terrible week, but it was still a reminder of why I need to work for a living…sigh…Of course, it wasn’t as bad as this guy’s day!
They had to haul poor “Chip” off the field on the golf cart!
The ole’ FMQ got a little ahead of the game last week, but I thought I had a read on things and was going to nail EVERYTHING.  I’m glad I didn’t bet more on certain games (read Michigan).  Right when you think you absolutely KNOW what’s going on is when the bus hits you in the ass and lets you know otherwise. 
But before we jump into that, here’s a good read from ESPN regarding the two head coaches for Michigan and Nebraska, who are meeting for the 2nd time.  Frost was the UCF coach 2 years ago when UCF visited the Big House.
There are some good quotes from both coaches in there and more from other coaches that are coaching at their alma maters.  From Frost:
Big Ten Network cameras captured Frost last week on the sideline amid the storm of three Nebraska turnovers for a second straight week, 10 flags and a 58-yard punt-return TD by Troy's Cedarius Rookard.

The 43-year-old Frost appeared not angry or impatient; rather, he looked a special kind of miserable.
"I'd say dissatisfaction," Frost said.
Coach Harbs also added insight:
They endure intense scrutiny but said that the potential reward of restoring championship-level play at their proud programs is worth the pressure and weight of increased expectations.
"It's heightened," Harbaugh said this week when asked whether the moments mean more to him because it's Michigan
So, losing Saturday for either of these coaches is going to hurt and winning, well, winning is what you’re supposed to be doing.  So, it’ll be somewhat rewarding for someone and for someone else, its back to the drawing board and an ever-dissatisfied fan base.
THE FMQ
As I was saying, I thought I had things figured out.  The Football Gods proved otherwise…USC-Texas and Michigan not covering against a Tomato can from the American Conference (DAMN THAT PROCHE KID!) were simply games I didn’t see coming.  But I did LEARN A LOT from some other games.  And I have a feeling with conference play opening for almost everyone, it’s time to look at road teams laying points and for some BIG UPSETS!


Let’s see what’s on the slate for this week. 
On to this week’s picks:
Domers @ Wake Forest (+7 O/U:  60.5 MONEYLINE:  WF +250): This is a particularly head scratcher of a spread.   First of all, the Deamon Deacons are statistically playing some pretty good football right now (maybe better than the domers).  And the domers should have lost AT HOME to Vandy.  In fact, Vandy handed the domers the game, so that translates into the domers laying points in their first trip on the road?  In a conference match-up?  Did you watch the BC vs WF game?  This seems too easy…
Take Vandy and the 7 for $30
Take the over for $25
Take the MONEYLINE for $20
Boston College @ Purdue (+6.5):  I’m still having a hard time understanding how a team that’s got stats like Purdue through 3 games is somehow 0-3.  And by a total of 8 points. This is a good football team.  Now, another team that’s feeling full of itself heads into West Lafayette at 3-0 with some fairly impressive wins on the sheet.  As much as I’d like to take the Eagles and lay the points, I have a feeling Purdue might win this one….   
Take Purdue and the 6.5 for $25
Northern Illinois @ FSU (-11):  FSU is a really bad football team right now…If you think Michigan has offensive line issues, go take a look at a few high-light (lowlight?) reels of how FSU’s offensive line is playing.  I don’t care who’s playing QB, there’s no way he’d be doing any better than Deondre is doing right now.  And NIU always screws someone every season.   
Take Northern Illinois and the 11 for $25
Texas A&M @ Alabama (-27  MONEYLINE:  A&M - $2,000):  Again, do people watch the games?  Did they see the Aggies almost beat Clemson?  This is an incredibly inflated spready and I think - THINK – Jimbo Fisher might know a thing or two about how Bama does things.  Seeing as how he coached under Satan.  Again, I might be wrong here, but I think this game stays closer than you think...And that MONEYLINE – WOW!  That would be sweet!
Take Texas A&M and the 27 for $30
Take the A&M MONEYLINE for $10
Tulane @ THE Sex Toy University (-37):  Tulane is only getting 37 in the Toilet Bowl?  But then I did some research and Tulane isn’t a terrible team.  And they run a pesky triple option attack.  And Bosa is OUT.  This is tough, but I’m taking Tulane and the points in this one…
Take Tulane and the 37 for $30
TCU @ Texas (+3):  This is another really weird spread.  TCU was a couple of plays away from knocking off THE Sex Toy University last week.  Texas pantsed what I’m starting to think is a REALLY BAD USC team.  So, that somehow translates to TCU only having to give 3 to the Shorthorns?  I know Hermann has to win a “Big One” soon, but I don’t think it’s this Saturday.  Be prepared for the “Fire Hermann” crowd to show up with their torches and pitchforks on the 40 Acres
Take TCU and lay the 3 for $25
Army @ Oklahoma (-31.5):  Newsflash:  Army is not a bad football team.  I know Oklahoma has been routing teams, but this spread looks on the high side.  And military teams have a way of covering the spread.  I think...
Take Army and the 31.5 for $35
The Gophers @ Maryland (-1):  This is another ODD Spread…The Gophers have been playing some pretty good football this season.  Maryland had the first game against Texas where they looked sensational.  Unfortunately, the Terps had to play more games.  And they looked AWFUL against Temple.  I don’t know if this is an up and down Terps team, but the Gophers have shown me plenty.  I like rowing the boat on the road going to 4-0 on the season
Take the Gophers and the 1 for $30
LNU @ Indiana (+5):  LNU has not impressed me in its 2 games so far this season.  Indiana has an extra game under their belt and it’s a night game at home.  And they’re getting points.  And they beat LNU 2 years ago at home when they were a dog.  I like Karma here…
Take Indiana and the 5 for $25
Wiscy @ IOWA (OPEN:  +6 Current: +3):  When this spread opened on Monday I IMMEDIATELY grabbed Iowa and the 6.  Why? Let’s see.  Wiscy lost at HOME to BYU.  A team that only won 3 games last season. Iowa loves being home dogs and often wins those contests. (Michigan 2016, THE Sex Toy U last year and scored 55 on them in the process) Night Game at Kinnick.  Where great teams go to die…  Those crazy fans don’t drink beer.  They drink CORN LIQUOR.  Straight Up.  No chaser…And don’t forget “The Wave!”  Yeah, I’ll take the Hawkeyes and 6 all day in this one. 
Take Iowa and the 6 for $40
Nebraska @ Michigan (-18 O/U: 50.5) Wow.  This spread makes ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE.  First rule of gambling is to not bet on a team you pull for because it skews your objectivity.  HOWEVA’!  My objectivity is spot on with this game.  Nebraska out-statted Colorado (the first loss) and rolled up over 500 yards of offense.  Troy beat Nebraska, but the Cornhuskers were without their starting QB Martinez who’s day to day.  He could be back against Michigan this week and the spread doesn’t reflect that.  I may be TOTALLY WRONG on this pick, but I don’t think I am…    
Take Nebraska and the 18 for $25
Take the OVER for $25
PARLAY!
3 Bet/Team Parlay:   6-1
Iowa – Texas A&M – Wake Forest:  $30
TOTAL BET:  $430
Bank:  $543.50
ETC
Greatest High School Play Ever???!!!!
What’s fun about High School football is that heroes are created based on opportunities and desire.  Click on the link for a play where one player sneaks through the line when the opposing team is lined up in the “Victory” formation and strips the ball free and recovers the fumble.  Then, on the ensuing final play, he’s the receiver on a misdirection play and scores the winning TD! 
La Jolla linebacker Max Smith somehow managed to strip the ball before Gebase’s knee hit the turf. What’s even cooler is that when La Jolla got the ball back, Smith caught the game-winning touchdown with 38.5 seconds left!
Jump to the 11:00 minute mark to see the INT and the ensuing Victory Formation Snap and forced fumble:
Never Give Up!  NEVER SURRENDER!
Urban “The Liar” Meyer
My last take on Urban “The Liar” Meyer:  Someone is lying.  Or a lot of people are lying. Doesn’t really matter as it’s pretty clear that THE Sex Toy University is putting football over everything else.  Domestic abuse, integrity, you name it.  Gene Smith deleting ALL HIS TEXTS?  Gimme a break...That’s straight out of the Kwame Kilpatrick “Deleting Texts” 101 course at the Federal Pokey.

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