First – congrats to all the skiiers that Skied in the Michigan State Finals on a very
bright and beautiful Winter Day in northern Michigan! If every winter day was like yesterday,
everyone would love winter!!!
Now, about that game at Crisler last Saturday….
Wow!!!
Matt
Painter has never gotten much “ink” from the
MMPG. But I had stated earlier in one of
my posts that I thought that Purdue was not only the best the B1G had to offer,
but I thought (Kind of like Dan Dakich) that Purdue could be a Final Four
Team. As Michigan has only played Purdue
sporadically over the last couple of seasons, it’s hard to get to know a coach
and a team. I “thought” Purdue was
better than what they put on display on Saturday. And I still think they might be. But Wagner, I think it’s safe to say,
outplayed the B1G POY and left him shell shocked in the 1st
half. Yes, Swanigan got his, but
that was expected. I also expected that
Painter would have figured that Michigan would double team or somehow try to
stop Swanigan. Which is why I would have
dusted off the Spike Weapon and turned him loose. But Painter didn’t. Thankfully….
Michigan really took their foot off the gas. This is where SuperFan will comment and emphatically
yell at Beilein, “DON’T DO THAT!” – Which I wholeheartedly agree with,
BTW. Michigan has a pretty slow to
develop a shot offense, anyway. Just run
the offense. And again, for the life of
me, I’m not sure why Spike didn’t get more minutes...
In the 2nd half, Michigan decided to give
everyone a heart check and slowed things down to eat time off the clock. I hate that.
If Michigan had kept pressuring and played in rhythm as they were
playing when they were 22 ahead, I’m not sure Purdue could have stopped them
from scoring 90. Whatever the case, an
argument could be made that Michigan could be one of the top teams in the
country if they could play each and every game at Crisler.
It
was a Big Game!
At times, the FMQ and the MMPG (two of the most
pragmatic of the alter egos) get into discussions about stuff... In these discussions to discuss things (in my
head – not out loud…at least not out loud, yet) to get a better understanding
of the situation that’s current, I thought I’d share one of them with you so
you would get a better sense of what’s going on.
FMQ: How big was this game?
MMPG: Big. So Big, that we’ve gone from discussing Michigan
as a “Bubble
Team” to the discussion, “What Seed Line
Makes Sense for Michigan”??? I’d already chalked the Purdue game up as a
loss in my mind, and to a certain degree, I’m sure the committee members were thinking
the same thing…So if Michigan was in the Dance they were still in, even with
the loss. However, Michigan won! That’ll hurt Purdue more than it helps
Michigan.
FMQ: So Michigan hurt Purdue more than they helped
themselves?
MMPG: Probably. Purdue will still get the highest B1G Seed,
and I think they will stay on the 4 Line, but that loss hurt. With respect to Michigan: There’s going to be two or three losses we’ll
talking about heading into the NCAA’s: Losing
in OT at Minnesota (DAMN YOU TEDDY VALENTINTE!!!! DAMN YOU ALL TO
HELL!),
losing
at home to the suckeyes and losing at Iowa… Those three wins would have moved Michigan up
in the B1G standings and probably gotten them into the top 4 of the Tourney for
the B1G byes.... The Gophers win would
have definitely
moved Michigan up in the national standings and more than likely up on
the NCAA Seed line as well. A 7 would be
so much better than an 8 right now.
(Some of the Bracketologists have Michigan as high as a 7 already)
FMQ: Why’s a 7-Seed so much better than an 8-Seed?
MMPG: The 2-Seeds this season (As of today in no particular
order: Kentucky, Louisville, Baylor,
Oregon) are bouncing around all over the place and look EXTREMELY
BEATABLE. Not only that, historically,
the percentages are higher for the 7-10 Seeds to come out of the 1st
weekend into the Sweet 16 vs. the 8-9 Seeds (that have to play the Number 1’s). I think Michigan matches up pretty well with
any of the two seeds right now. I’d
take, in order of who I think Michigan can beat and then getting more
difficult: Oregon, Baylor, Louisville,
Kentucky.
FMQ: But wait a minute MMPG, don’t you eventually
have to beat the #1 anyway? Isn’t it
better to get them early in the 2nd round?
MMPG: Depends on which #1 seed you get. Right now, several of the Bracketologists
have Michigan against either UNC or Kansas.
I’d take Kansas in the 2nd round as they have
historically had trouble getting out of the 1st weekend. The other #1 seed I’d like Michigan to play would
be Gonzaga. Villanova and UNC I’d rather play later when
the pressure was building on them a little bit more…
FMQ: Well can’t Michigan win out and improve their
Seed line up through a 7 to a 6? And is
the 6 Seed that much better??
MMPG: Let me start with the 2nd part of
your question first: The
6-Seed dumps into the 3-Seed vs. 14-Seed game winner. All the NCAA Projected 3-Seeds all look
pretty good right now (UCLA, Florida,
Florida State and Arizona) and 1 of them (UCLA), Michigan already lost a
shoot-out with. Granted Michigan wasn’t
playing a lot of defense at that point in time.
The answer to the first part (Can Michigan move up): Doubtful. Michigan can go 2-0 or 1-1 in the next two
games and not much is really going to change from a “Best Wins”, BPI, RPI and Kenpom
standpoint. Even losing the next
two won’t change that much.
FMQ: What about winning some of the games or winning
the B1G Tourney?
MMPG: That COULD change the Seed Line. Especially if they were to win the
Tourney. Winning some games only helps
if you’re TRULY ON THAT BUBBLE LINE.
Winning the B1G Tourney would give Michigan 4 more victories and assuming
they win the next two games, that would get them to 25 wins, equivalent with
the best in the conference. Maybe, just
maybe, the committee would reward them with the 6 or the 5 Line…But DON’T
hold your breath….things are pretty much in place in the NCAA’s. Short
of the Mid-Major Conference upsets.
FMQ: So I think you’re saying that the things
that “have” happened are more important than the things that COULD happen? I thought Conference Tourney’s were
important! I’m not following you…
MMPG: Well, you have to remember that resumes
are built over the season. The
committee in the past has rewarded some Conference Tourney Champions,
but other times, they just leave teams where they’re seeded. For example:
Last Season, EVERY TALKING HEAD OUT THERE stated that if Sparty won the
B1G Tourney, they’d lock up a 1-Seed.
Guess what? Sparty won the B1G
and still ended up as the same 2-Seed they were going into Conference Tourney
Weekend!!! And promptly
lost. Don’t get too hung up on what you “deserve”
if you start winning a bunch late in the season. The Committee has things
pretty much set in place at this point in time.
FMQ: But I’ve been hearing about how this is a “Historically
Weak” Bubble for the last two weeks!
Why wouldn’t Michigan move up with a B1G Tourney Win?
MMPG: I hate it when announcers and radio talking
heads are stating this is “a historically weak bubble”!!! Would you really like to know what’s “Historic”
about this season: Look at the KenPom and BPI and you will see there
aren’t many Mid-Majors in the top 50 (3 I think) that are sitting with better than
23-24 wins and as a result, have extremely high RPI’s, BPI’s and Kenpom
rankings. That makes the SOS of the
Middle finishers in the Power 5 (6 with the BEast) Conferences look
that much better! So really, the
power conferences are just doing what they always do. But there’s so many fewer mid-majors to pick
from this season and the Syracuse’s, Vanderbilt’s and California’s are
sitting there with less than 20 Wins and are actually the best teams available!
FMQ: Well, isn’t there ANYTHING that can be done to help
Michigan’s seeding? And if the
answer’s no, why even bother playing the games?
MMPG: Yes –Michigan fans need to root for the teams
that they’ve beaten and even the teams that have beaten them. Actually, when I was reviewing Michigan’s BEST
WINS, they also end up being some of the WORST LOSSES for those
opponents!
Michigan
79 – Marquette 61: Marquette’s WORST LOSS on the season!
Michigan
75 - SMU 54: SMU’s WORST LOSS of the
Season!
Michigan
90 – Indiana 60: IU’s WORST LOSS of the
Season!
Michigan
82 – Purdue 70: Purdue’s WORST LOSS of
the Season!
So, Michigan has that going for them and the Committee will
take note of stuff like that when seeding them.
And you have to play the
games! They’re on the schedule!
FMQ: What about this Kenpom thing
and why isn’t it used over RPI again?
Everyone agrees that Kenpom is a much better predictor of outcomes,
right?? Is Michigan’s RPI in the same
rank (for B1G Teams) as the actual rank?
MMPG: Good Question. At 46 RPI, Michigan is ranked 6th
out of the B1G Teams that are in this order:
- Minnesota
- Purdue
- Maryland
- Wiscy
- Sparty
- Michigan
- Northwestern – Which is why the Northwestern game on Wednesday is critical for them…The Wildcats NEED THIS WIN!!!!
So Michigan is actually a notch higher than the Wildcats
and should win this game…Except for the Road Worries, of course.
With
respect to Kenpom, here it is:
- Purdue
- Wisconsin
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Northwestern
- Maryland
- Indiana
- Sparty!
Michigan sits at 3rd in Kenpom’s Predictive
Index and has just recently beaten the two teams ahead of it….
FMQ: Okay – you’re jumping around. This isn’t necessarily anything Michigan can
do to improve their seeding in the NCAA, right?
All you’re stating here is that the Kenpom has Michigan higher and the
selection committee sees that kind of thing, right?
MMPG: Sorry, yes, that’s correct. In reality, All Michigan can do is start a 12
game winning streak beginning Wednesday night in Evanston against
Northwestern. According to Kenpom, Michigan is on a fantastic 5 game roll and
is one of the best teams statistically out there.
FMQ: Wait – What did you just say? A 12-Game Winning Streak???
MMPG: Win the last two games of the regular season,
Win 4 games that would win the B1G Tourney and then win 6 games in the NCAA’s!!!
It’s
all very Academic.
FMQ: That seems like a tall order. Winning 12 in a row, I mean. Would Michigan be better off losing
in the B1G Tourney and getting whatever seed they have now?
MMPG: That’s kind of what everyone thinks going
into the conference season tourney and it’s why coaches absolutely hate the Conference
Tournaments. Nobody wants to
play a tournament thinking, “If we lose no big deal” because EVERYONE
IS SO WIRED TO WIN!!! But if
Michigan is rolling…Let It Roll, Baby, Let It Roll!!!
So here’s where it stands:
The
Michigan Resume
Record: 19-10
BPI: 23 24
25 25
Kenpom: 28 27 27
27
RPI: 52 52
50 46
Opponent Location Date Day and Time Result
Indiana Home 1-26 Thursday, 9:15 90-60 Blow-Out
Sparty Away 1-29 Sunday, 1:00 70-62
Loss
Suckeyes Home 2-4 Saturday,
6:00 70-66 Loss
Sparty Home 2-7 Tuesday, 9:00 86-57 BLOW-OUT
Indiana Away 2-12 Sunday, 1:00 75-63
SWEEP OF IU!!!!
Wiscy Home 2-16 Thursday,
7:00 64-58 Win
Minnesota Away 2-19 Sunday, 7:00 83-78 LOSE
Rutgers Away 2-22 Wednesday, 6:30 66-64 WIN
Purdue Home 2-25 Saturday, 4:00 82-70 WIN
Northwestern Away 3-1 Wednesday,
7:00
Nebraska Away 3-5 Sunday, 8:00
Lunardi updated yesterday and Michigan SOLIDLY in
as an 8 seed in GREENVILLE!!!! (Superfan!!!) That’s a jump up from the
9-Seed line they were on last week.
Michigan is still 7th overall in the B1G
Standings. That can change tomorrow
night in Evanston, but doesn’t really change what would happen in the B1G
Tourney of the NCAA Seed-line.
Sparty’s win
has also secured them a Seed in the NCAA’s.
Hollis and Izzo have done a much better job managing the Non-Con SOS
and Sparty, even without really beating anyone, will more than likely get a bid
in this Mid-Major-less season.
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