It's A BIG GAME!!!

Nervous Nellies…

E-mail from SuperFan about tonight:

Well I am sad to say that I am not looking forward to tonight.  I have no doubt that our boys can win the game, but I have equal confidence that they could be embarrassed.  I hope that Beilein has a game plan that nearly surrenders the paint on D and focusses on denying them any 3s.  A&M will dispose of Moe quickly if not.  So, as I have said for 4 years or more, Shoot the 3, deny the 3 and don’t foul.  I hope that we just come out launching 3s (everyone except Simpson and Matthews) and keep it up even if we are missing.  Just look at how Nevada came back from a huge deficit.  They were missing, and missing badly, but they just kept shooting and looky what they found…..the bottom of the net.  This goes ESPECIALLY for MAAR, who has been a non-factor on the O side.

I wish he would just turn them loose to run and gun as I think that most of our guys shoot better with less time to think about the shot (just ask Poole), and, aside from the C position, I think that we have the conditioning and the depth to wear the other team out.  Again, I say so what if we get down by 20 in the first half (if our shots aren’t falling), just keep running.

Or, if you really want to mess with A&M’s heads, come out with Teske as C and Moe as a F, on the floor together.  That SHOULD reduce the likelihood of Moe getting into foul trouble and yet keep him in the game for his O.  He should be able to deny the 3 without fouling, if he knows that Teske will be there to hinder the penetration. 

 If we can just get back to playing and shooting well we can win this game tonight; and if we win this, I think that M can win it all!  Tonight is the Championship for us!  Not to say the remaining games will be a cakewalk, but I like our chances beyond tonight; if we can just get past tonight. 

My Response:

I have a feeling that it was better we played lousy over the weekend and barely won by the skin of our teeth.

I ALSO have a feeling that were going to get back to the stat line tonight, we’re playing EARLIER (4:37 LOCAL TIME) and nobody is picking us (now) after seeing the bright and shiny thing that demolished unc.

Basketball is a funny and sometimes unpredictable sport, but generally speaking, the math usually holds up. 

However, I do like the idea of Teske and Moe on the court at the same time.  That would be interesting and you’re right, it should keep moe out of foul trouble…

Duke and Nova still scare me a little (Duke more than Nova) gut I agree, tonight is a huuuuuuge game for the Maize and Blue.

Let’s GO BLUE!!!

It’s A BIG GAME!!!

Predicting Thursday’s Sweet 16 Games

Thanks for the feedback from yesterday.  Many of you agreed that you’d keep Poole’s shot and that last season was sort of a great run, but the team wasn’t good enough to win the whole thing.  I re-watched some of the 2017 clips and unc was a great team, plain and simple.  Kind of believe that Michigan would have suffered the same fate as the Ducks. 

On to this season and tonight, is there any chance ANYONE, based upon what has transpired so far, can predict the outcome of the games tonight?  Can anyone get 3 predictions correct?  Two?

I’m gonna try…

Michigan vs. Texas A&M:  I think everyone knows where I stand on this game.  All things being equal, Michigan is the better team. I know, I know, so was UVA, unc, sparty, etc.  But now everyone has had 4 DAYS TO THINK ABOUT WHAT COULD HAPPEN IN the next 48 hours and the possibility of getting to the Final Four is two wins away!!!  This is where really great coaching comes in to play and Beilein manages this very well.  I’m sticking with Mr. March and what I have in my bracket here.    

I’ll take Michigan in a close one. 

Loyola Chicago vs. Nevada:  This is an incredibly tough pick.  And I almost – ALMOST had this in my bracket, but backed out on Nevada over Cinci on Thursday morning thinking I had picked “Too many upsets!!!”  Anyway, I remember contemplating this game as a result and recall that Massey had it as a pick-em.  Both teams had come from behind victories in both the first and second rounds.  Both teams have coaches that have been around and one REALLY, REALLY likes the F-word. 

So who do I like?  I like them both but I have to pick one.  I’m going to lean towards Loyola here with Sister Jean being the swing factor and not approving of Mussleman’s Language!!! 

K-State vs. Kentucky (wildcats vs. wildcats):  I’m glad I’m not an announcer as I would hate to have to call this game.  “Wildcats on Wildcats”.  Anyway, I wasn’t even close on this particular Sweet 16 game, and I don’t think anyone was (I had UVA playing Ariz).  K-State played pretty well in the Big iiX the entire season.  Yeah, they lost some games they were supposed to lose, but they’re big and tough inside.  Kentucky, OTOH, has been an up and down team this entire season, only settling in to what I think is the usual Kentucky mode of March Basketball, effective and efficient.  Which scares the bejezus out of anyone that has to go up against them.  And we were all wondering if Kentucky would actually make the Tourney at one point.  Massey has it as a 3-2 game in favor of the Kentucky Wildcats.  But K-State has had a tougher road and is probably more mentally prepared to play this game than the freshmen of Kentucky.  As the lights get brighter, it’s harder for the youngsters to stay focused.  Vegas says K-State is a 5-point dog.  Bigger dogs have won bigger games in this tourney already.  Is betting on a dog a bad thing in March?  At this point, it might be….

I’ll take Kentucky’s Kids in Katlanta over the K-State Cats…. (of course, I could just say the wildcats will win and I’d be right either way!)

FSU vs. Gonzaga:  This is where people get in trouble.  As with Texas A&M and Michigan above, everyone is going to look at the last games of both of these teams and think, “Wow – FSU had a GREAT VICTORY over unc and looked like giant killers!  I wish I had taken them in my bracket.”  THAT’S THE WRONG THINKING! Again, 4 days to think about what might actually happen and FSU is going to be a little tight and not be playing the same game they played against unc.  I’m sticking to my bracket here and going with the Zags and Mark Few, who was in the same place last season.  Sort of a case of been there, done that.

I’ll take the Zags in convincing fashion.   

Poole On The Clutch Shot and Beilein’s Mantra of “Why Not Us?”

Good article from the News about Poole’s shot, his social media explosion and Beilein’s continuing mantra of “Why Not Us?” 

I’m thinking of making a T-shirt with 2018 Sweet 16 and Why Not Us right below it!

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/2018/03/20/michigan-jordan-poole/33127723/

Wagner Explains His Action After the Shot

Just Mo-Buckets being Mo-Buckets…

https://sports.yahoo.com/moritz-wagner-explains-stopped-console-heartbroken-houston-player-221840601.html

Spring Practice and Harbaugh’s Legacy

Is this a pivotal season for Harbaugh?  I’ve been seeing a lot of stuff written about Jimmy and how if he doesn’t get something done this season, his tenure at Michigan might be in doubt.  Let me address everyone’s takes with one simple word:

Bullshit

Jimmy is the guy and he’s going to be at Michigan as long as he wants to be.  Putting together a B1G Champion or even a National Champion in football takes time.  I know what Urban Legend did.  I also know what Satan did.  Michigan is on the right track under Harbaugh and it just not happening as fast for him as it did for those two.  Harbaugh had a bigger mess to clean up, even though I do believe Michigan squandered a great opportunity in 2016 with losses to Iowa and the suckeyes that, in this Fan’s Opinion, were both on Harbaugh and the coaching staff.  Regardless, Michigan and Harbaugh are going to find a way. 

Patience is the key here…  

EMU To Cut 4 Varsity Sports

Due to extreme costs associated with athletics and not having a football or basketball team that can generate any revenue, EMU is dumping women’s softball, Men’s diving and wrestling, and women’s tennis.  That’ll save the AD approximately $2.4M annually. IS that the right idea?  Or should Eastern, long time basement dweller in the MAC in pretty much all of its athletics (ever since they dropped the “Huron” name), simply step down from the D1 level and leave the MAC for the GLIAC or similar conference? Good question.  In any case, Eastern’s athletes got a raw deal. 

http://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/index.ssf/2018/03/eastern_michigan_dropping_4_sp.html

Either The Dumbest Move OR Absolutely Brilliant

Question:  If you were a D1 AD and had a National Championship Coach coaching your basketball team for 2 years that won 46 games in that time span, would you let him go and hire a guy that has only coached at the high-school level (albeit he won three state titles during his tenure)?  I know what my answer would be, but apparently Memphis thinks it knows more than everyone else.  Memphis let Tubby Smith go and hired former alum/player and NBA sensation Penny Hardaway.  I don’t know how this is going to work (Hardaway has ties to some local kids that will now probably attend Memphis) but jumping up to the collegiate level from high school seems like a big bet on the unknown.  The domers did that with Gerry Faust in Football and look how that turned out. 

One More Comment On LNU - In Particular, Izzo

After the final hoops game for LNU in 2018, Izzo stated during his presser that he wants to be part of the solution at LNU.  However, I just don’t see how that can happen when there has been so much documented under his watch regarding all of the sexual assault allegations.  Izzo and D’Antoninni’s hubris reminds me of the last days of Paterno when the Sandusky stuff was surfacing.  While Paterno finally attempted to do the right thing by retiring, he was subsequently canned and more or less dragged down into the quagmire with Sandusky.

Unfortunately, the Nassar Event is all encompassing, much like the Sandusky affair.  The fact that the President and the AD went down are indicative of what may need to happen in the future for both the football and basketball programs.  Too much has gone on and it can’t be ignored and “fixed” by the guys that were overseeing the programs when all the crap was going down!!!  That’s not how scandals work.  I was surprised that Izzo’s knee jerk reaction was to say that he “Wasn’t going anywhere.”  What he should have stated that he’ll need to reflect on all of this and then prepare a statement after he had determined what the best thing would be for LNU. 

Izzo’s lack of awareness will only fuel more fires at ESPN and other media centers to dig up more dirt. 

The right thing is out there and the path to getting LNU back to prominence doesn’t include Izzo or D’antuna.  They both need to realize that at some point. 

https://sports.yahoo.com/michigan-states-crisis-affected-tom-izzo-program-235846839--spt.html

The Mail Bag and Other Stuff...

E-mail, Texts and Tweets

Best Question received so far:

“Seeing you put last season’s final game up on the blog with Walton missing that shot made me think of a question:   Would you trade Poole’s shot this season for a make by Walton last season against Oregon?”

Hmmmmmmmmm…Damn…Damn, damn, damn…Oh, Good Lord!

DAMMIT!!!! 

That’s a REALLY, REALLY HARD Question.  I know I can’t have both and death’s not an option.  A Sweet 16 Berth or an Elite 8 berth, one step closer to a National Title…

HOW DO YOU MAKE THIS DECISION???

WHY DO YOU PEOPLE ASK ME STUFF LIKE THIS?????

The Rest of my afternoon is totally shot.  I mean,

TOTALLY.

Let’s look at this a couple of different ways – speculatin’ and data.  First, we’ll speculate.  The next game in the Regional Final pitted Oregon against Kansas, who they beat rather handily.  QED, we can assume that Michigan would have beat Kansas also.  Which, I think that’s a relatively safe assumption.  The next game in the semi’s had Oregon losing to unc by 1-point!!!  Can we assume that Michigan might have found a way to win that game?  I think we can…especially based on the way Michigan was playing at the end of last season.    

Then, the Zags went down easily to unc in the championship.  Assuming all things being equal and assuming that Michigan could in fact have beaten unc, there’s a pretty good chance that might have been a FF berth and Championship opportunity missed with one little basket, that Walton had made a million times previous to that shot. 

Looking at 2017’s Massey Ratings Prediction tool (which hasn’t predicted much correctly THIS SEASON!), we have the following:

Michigan was not favored over Oregon, was a 3-2 dog against unc, but had an edge over the Zags.  And unc vs. Oregon was closer to a toss-up.

Now, some data.  I’m going to remind EVERYONE that Michigan was way better than their final KenPom stats indicated last season as they were playing a lot better in the final 10 games than they were early in the season.  IF you recall, we had to sweat Michigan even making the Tourney as late as mid-February and even going into the B1G Tourney.  Then, the plane crash and 4 wins in 4 days got Michigan the B1G auto-bid and a 7-Seed.  Still, I think if Walton had hit that shot, a championship run was very, VERY possible…Think I’m fibbin’ about the last 10 games? 

Here’s a link!!!  (Which I saved in the header above, also, for quick reference!)

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/last-10-games-by-other?date=2017-04-04

So, yes, Michigan was statistically better than the remaining competition last season.

Comparing that to this year and predicting who Michigan will play based on top seeds left, the probabilities are roughly the same, and I think Villanova’s very beatable when they have to go up against a good defense. 

Man…Like I said, tough question but I have to make a decision... 

ANSWER:  Based on the fact that I think – “THINK” this team might be slightly better than 2017’s Helluvan’ Offense team, I THINK “Team 2018” has a better defense and might beat “Team 2017”. 

However, there’s still a big hurdle to go over to win a National Championship in 2018:  THIS Season’s Stats for Last 10 Games

Yeah, two of the potential NC opponents of Duke and Villanova both over Michigan (currently)…

I’m going with Poole and this season. 

But MAN, THIS IS A TERRIBLE QUESTION TO ASK A MICHIGAN FAN!!!!

Especially me!!! 

“What’s up with Wagner?  We’re screwed if we don’t get some more production out of him…”

I have to agree.  What’s been up with Wagner is his ass is usually down on the bench with early fouls.  I don’t know why they’ve gotten away from the strategy of “Moe Takes the First Shot of the game from the 3”, other than a lot of teams are onto that ever since Stauskas was doing it a couple of seasons ago.  I believe Mo-Buckets taking and making that first shot defines the rest of the game.  That first play must be on every opposing scouting report’s first line and, no matter what, you deny Mo-Buckets or cover him tight outside.   On top of that, Moe’s not quite the deadeye that Stauskas was, either.   Anyway, Wagner’s GOT TO STOP MAKING DUMB FOULS and stay in the game.  IT’s that simple…

“What do you really think of Michigan’s chances against Texas A&M?  You have to admit, they didn’t look good enough to beat them last weekend. “

Yes, I’ll admit they didn’t look like the team that won the B1G Tourney.  I hate to go down the “Well, it was the 12 days off” excuse road, but something needs to flip the script back to where they were playing at the end of the season.  I’m hoping this weekend was just a little fluky and Michigan is back to their average stat line or better on Thursday.  Always trust the stats, folks.  (And don’t throw the University of Maryland Back-up College stats at me and say “why didn’t UVA win??)  shit happens, but usually,  

Math don’t lie!!! 

In addition, Texas A&M played the game of their season, and that’s not likely to happen 2 times in a row (I hope).  Looking purely at KenPom, I’m liking Michigan’s chances by about 3 points with a 10^th ranked Team vs a 25^th ranked team.  Let’s call it a 60-40 vs. what Massey spit out above (66-34).  Last 10 games for Texas A&M (rank):  32. 

Worry if Michigan can’t shut down A&M’s shooters or have trouble getting the defensive rebounds they’re used to getting.   

“I watched a little of the NIT- still buzzing from the weekend – do you think the NCAA would ever re-seed like that?”

God, I hope not.  I know there’s always talk of that every season, usually in the 4 days immediately following the first weened of the tourney, especially when one bracket gets completely decimated “giving” Kentucky or someone and easy FF road (this year’s South Region).  But nobody’s going to lay down to Kentucky and this is usually when Kentucky loses (this season), when they play a lesser opponent.  Personally, I would leave it the way it is.  There’s no need to screw with something that is close to perfect already.

Kelvin Sampson Claims Best Team Lost Saturday Night

Well...Yeah.  It’s March Madness.  That Happens.

Are you new to this?  Did you see Virginia, unc and others go down over the weekend?  Put it this way:  You have a lot of elite company sitting on the couch with you if that makes you feel any better!!!

https://mobile.twitter.com/markbermanfox26/status/975448316124246016

Izzo’s Style Decimating Draft Stock

From SI:  Mock Draft Shows Bridges Dropping Down to 12^th – Jackson #3

https://www.si.com/nba/nba-mock-draft-2018

Interesting.  Take talent and put it into an archaic playing style, don’t coach it up and draft stock drops.  Sounds about right.  I believe Bridges was a top 5 pick last season and to drop 7 spots in the NBA draft is kind of a big deal.  If Izzo keeps that formula up, he’ll start losing top recruits.  Wagner projected in the 2^nd round…

Don’t F%$#ck With Tradition For TV Time…Spring Game Time Announced

Spring Game Time:  Saturday, April 14^th, 7:00PM

This is bad on so many levels…

Weather will play into this.  Fans would like to be sitting in the spring sunshine at noon rather than sitting in the cold spring night air, that’s for sure.  And if there’s precipitation, fuggedabout it.  I guess people will go, and if Patterson is eligible, the place will be relatively full.

Still don’t like it. 

Grumpy Old Fan has made his comment.

Softball and Baseball Both Sweep Last Weekend!!!

The Men swept BGSU and the Women swept Dayton, Miami, Robert Morris and Fort Wayne.  Local play to start next week, assuming the snow is gone…

ETC

Is The NCAA Tourney The Best Way To Crown a National Champion?

Check out this list compiled by USA Today that ranks the best teams not to win a championship.  Makes you wonder about the NCAA Tourney and “Defining” the National Champion in 6 games over 3 weekends…I would never want to play some of the teams on this list EVER.  And yet, somehow, upsets happen and ended the run of some of the best teams in college hoops…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ftw/2018/03/21/top-18-college-hoops-teams-in-history-that-failed-to-win-a-national-title/111141022/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatodaycomcollegemensbasketball-topstories

NCAA Basketball vs. NCAA Hockey – WTF?

Two collegiate sports managed entirely different by the NCAA. Adopt the Hockey model for Basketball and life will get a helluva lot easier…

https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl-model-perhaps-offers-best-reform-solution-wake-ncaa-hoops-scandal-150355518.html

Most Busted Brackets EVER!!!

I guess this really isn’t news, but never the less, figuring out brackets may be the biggest waste of time EVER!!!

https://sports.yahoo.com/2018-ncaa-tournament-busted-brackets-ever-235917947.html

Looking Towards Thursday

Just because it’ll never get old…

Houston needed those free throws.  There was so much irony at the end of this game that it’s almost eerie to go back and watch.  MAAR driving and missing.  Fouls.  Missed shots and missed freebies. 

But one team walked away victorious. 

And only 1 Team can win!

More Karma

Thanks to the reader that pointed out that Michigan in 2017 was not only a team of destiny after the airplane crash, but they were the national darlings as a result of that disaster, too.  Damn those Oregon Ducks…

Poole’s last second shot has made Michigan a “National Story” again as they survived and UMBC didn’t.  Poole’s shot will get replayed before each Michigan game they continue to play. 

And, yes, Michigan played two of its worst games on Thursday and Saturday and still came out with wins.  Chances of a 3^rd stinker are remote, and those two games should have knocked off a little rust. 

Elite Company!!!

Teams with 4 Sweet 16 Appearances since 2013:  Duke, Arizona, Kansas, Wiscy, Kentucky, Gonzaga and….wait for it…

MICHIGAN!

No one else has had more than 4.

The Definition of a Michigan Man

If you didn’t see this, I believe this is part of what gets inside of you at Michigan.  When you strive for excellence, you sometimes forget that someone across the field or floor from you has worked just as hard and was almost there. 

Almost.

And sometimes, you have to recognize that effort as a gentleman.  Or more importantly, as a Michigan Man.

https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/975226653977686021/pu/img/GlISwaCef4qMWxmY?format=jpg&name=small

UMBC Twitter Dude

This is a great article and this guy was on a roll on Friday night!  He’s hilarious and had some of the best tweets going.   Read them all at this link:

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2018/3/17/17132732/umbc-twitter-account-zach-seidel-virginia-game-ncaa-tournament-march-madness

My favorite – Gotta be this one:

And his unrelenting troll of Seth Davis after Seth called the game over at the tip-off. 

That was classic!!!

This Parlay At Least Makes Sense

I really couldn’t get on board with the straight up 20-1 moneyline bet on UMBC.  Hut if you PARLAYED UMBC and Marshall, well, that paid 182-1!!!

I’m not suggesting those are great odds, but someone played it for $40 and it came home!  But then there was this idiot that lost $20K trying to win $870.  

Just like the stock market, there’s always someone on the other side of a bet!  And you will RARELY IF EVER see me take the other side of a parlay.  It’s just not worth it, IMHO.

More Good News!!!

Michigan Icers Make the Frozen Four!!

http://mgoblue.com/news/2018/3/18/ice-hockey-michigan-back-in-ncaa-tournament-matched-against-northeastern.aspx

What was supposed to take a couple of seasons only took one!  It was touch and go all the way, but Michigan opens up with Northeastern on March 24^th.  I don’t know if there’s such a thing as a good or bad draw in one and done College Ice Hockey because, randomness and luck.  If you think college hoops are quirky, try following college Hockey.  If they advance, Michigan will then play the winner of Cornell vs Boston on Sunday for a shot in the Frozen 4. 

Again, I just enjoy the Frozen 4 when Michigan makes it.  Don’t read too much into seeding or who should beat who.  Just roll with the house money!!!

On To New Business

Michigan (somehow) opened as a 3-point favorite over Texas A&M and tips at 7:37 on Thursday.  A&M looked superior to unc in every way and I’m scratching my head trying to figure out where that spread came from.   Season stats, I guess.  But A&M was undermanned all season and is now back to full strength.  Not a good sign…

We’ll see how good Mr. March is prepping for the Aggies.  Wagner and Teske will need to have big games.  Not to mention the rest of the cast…Good news about the Aggies?  They played one of their best games of the season against unc, and that will be tough to repeat. 

More Good News:  JB’s teams in the Sweet 16 have lost by 1, won by 2, won by 2, lost by 3, and won by 5.  Michigan has also pulled more straight up wins as an underdog than when they are the favorite. (favorites have won, but not covered.)

Duke opened up as a double-digit favorite over the Cuse (+11.5).  The only team to ever lose as a double-digit favorite in the Sweet 16?  Duke, which proceeded to lose to Indiana (+13) in 2002.

Villanova won both their 1^st and 2^nd round games by over 20 points.  6 teams have done that since the tourney expanded to 64.  Of the 6, three went on to win the National Title and 3 lost before making the FF.  FWIW.  Let’s hope this year is the latter.

More Sparty

I was looking for the Sparty spread and game time and then I remembered that Sparty should have gone to the NIT where they might have been able to squeak out of the first weekend!

And I wouldn’t be getting on Sparty so much, but there’s been a lot of venom spit Michigan’s way (regarding the ugly win, getting lucky, etc.) and frankly I’m getting a little tired of it.  As you may recall, as recently as 2013 Michigan beat that same Syracuse team and that same we’re gonna make you play our 3-2 Zone.

 

Shut your yaps, tuck your tails and go crawl back into your holes until November.  When you’ll be ranked in the Top 5 looking towards a great season that will end in a 2019 Tourney first weekend upset!!!

More bad news for Sparty: Izzo says he’s staying.  He’s going to rebuild this team and restore the spartan pride.  All the luck Izzo, all the luck.  I believe you’re going to need it. 

ETC.

Speaking of Michigan Men!!!

Some of you may know this individual personally either from the Tailgate or having watched him grow up.  But I’d like to acknowledge another Michigan Man, Aaron Sygiel, and his recent election (promotion? – former VP) to PRESIDENT of the MAIZE RAGE!!!   

What’s the Maize Rage?  Glad you asked!  They have a website:

http://www.maizerage.org/

Aaron is unequaled as a Michigan Hoops fan, attends every game and this year attended the B1G Tourney in NYC to cheer on the Maize and Blue!  In Hoops, I know how much the players appreciate the fans and especially the student fan base.  Congrats Aaron and wear the title proudly!!!

Some in the Virginia Fan Base Angry

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2018/3/17/17132780/virginia-basketball-march-madness-pain-has-never-felt-worse

In what shouldn’t be a huge surprise, a fractional amount of Cavalier Loonies are calling for the ouster of Bennet as a guy that will, “Never, EVER get to the next level due to not being mentally ready to play in the NCAA’s”.  I tried capturing some tweets, but a couple of them were deleted before I could grab them.  Suffice it to say, Cavalier fans are tired of getting to the promised land and getting ousted early or worse, embarrassed.  I get that.  But I don’t think canning Bennet is the way to go.  Who would you get?  The guy that just demolished you?

Just Who IS Sister Jean???

I was intrigued by this individual and had to research her a little bit more…

https://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2018/3/15/17125022/sister-jean-loyola-chicago-98-year-old-nun-scouting-report-barack-obama

Sister Jean’s impact on the team is so great that she’s been inducted into the school’s athletic hall of fame — and even has her own bobblehead. She’s known for welcoming back players with open arms after losses, but also texting them with advice, regardless of the outcome