Friday, December 6, 2013

FMQ Week #15 - Championship Week!

Is it over already?  Unbelievable….

Bowl Status Updates:   The University of Michigan Athletic Department has sent out an e-mail informing season ticket holders that it’ll be one of the following Bowls for Michigan, which will be announced on Sunday, December 8th:
Texas Bowl - Houston, December 27th
Buffalo Wild Wings – Tempe, December 28th
Gator Bowl –Jacksonville, January 1
Opponents for each of those could be Texas, Texas Tech, and probably Georgia….in that order.  The prognosticators and bowl projection folks have us in the Gator on January 1.  I’m not buying it, but the Cornhuskers losing may have helped Michigan’s cause and I believe the Texas bowl would have the Longhorns as an opponent and I’m sure Nebraska would rather play Texas than Georgia.  That's the beauty of the B1G when you share the dough….Pick the match-up you like and the final season results don’t really matter.  Minnesota would end up in the Wild Wings against Tech….We’ll see.
Coaching Updates:  In case you haven’t heard, Sarkisian in at USC and out at Washington but the BIG RUMOR is that Boise State’s Peterson is seriously looking at the Washington Job.  Why he didin’t consider it before Sarkasian took it the last time is beyond me…But now it’s looking good to him?  Oh well…the Coaching Carousel is in full spin…
FMQ!

It’s championship week and we have to at least try to get even for the year and it appears there are several opportunities that the bookmakers are laying out there for people just like us that need help!

I may be reading the tea leaves wrong here, but I do see opportunity!
Oklahoma @ Okie State (-10):  I KNOW I should take Oklahoma here, but the Laters haven’t covered the spread in this game in awhile and Okie State still has an outside shot at the NC.  I think they will show up and crush their instate rival…
Take Okies State and lay the 10 for $40
Texas @ Baylor (-14):  This one is tricky.  I honestly believe that Baylor will win this game, but there’s always a chance that the Longhorns rise to the occasion and somehow manage to upset the upstarts!  ORRRR….the shorthorns show up and fall completely on their face…I'm betting the former.
Take Texas and the 14 for $50
Stanford (+3) vs. ASU:  Will this be T. Graham’s last game before leaving for a better “gig”?  There’s so many opportunities to add another million or so to his bottom line and the jobs are probably better than what he perceives he has…I still don’t know how the Cardinal fell off and lost to the teams they lost to...
I’ll take Stanford and the 3 for $60
Duke (+30) vs. FSU:  This game “on paper” should be over in the 2nd quarter.  HOWEVA’, I do believe that the Blue Devils may hang around longer than people think in this one and a late TD could be the deciding factor – either way. 
I’ll take Duke and the 30 for $30
Mizzou (+2) vs. Auburn:  This is a truly fascinating game.  Auburn has had two miracle wins in a row and there seems to somehow be this belief that they are the team of destiny.  And  the “upset” pick of the week is Sparty over the suckeyes…But I see Mizzou taking advantage of this opportunity and upsetting the SEC WEST!
Take Mizzoi and the 2 for $75
Sparty (+5.5) vs ohio:  Looking only at how these two teams played Michigan (One at Michigan Stadium and one at Spartyland), I’m very much inclined to take Sparty and the points in this one…But I hate to go against Urban Crime Legend as he has a tendency to perform well in these games.  Eh, I guess I’m green this week…
Take Sparty and the 5.5 for $60

PARLAY!  (6 to 1)
Sparty-Mizzou-Stanford for $50
Starting Bank:         $710.50
Total Bet:                  $365.00
BANK:                       $345.50

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Wednesday Odds and Ends

Some thoughts that didn’t make it in Monday’s blog and some stuff I just have to get off my chest:

Auburn – Bama Redux – Play-Off thoughts:  Bama fans, get a grip.  No one, and I mean NO ONE cares (at this point anyway) about how you feel and how this is the last time in your life time that “a college team could have achieved a three-peat”.  Seriously.  The world has bigger problems than Bama losing to Auburn.  Yet, somehow, there’s a whole bunch of fans that don’t see it that way.  I’m really curious to see what happens and wondering if Satan sees how bad it can get if the Bama mob turns on him.  Right now, they simply hate Cade Foster and the rest of the kicking team for either missing all his field goal attempts and not covering Davis coming out of the end zone.  I’m curious as to what’ll happen when Bama loses 1 or 2 games early in the season sometime in the future and it’ll be fun to watch as the torch and pitchfork crowd really gets rolling.  That’s Bama…they love you when (and only) if you’re winning…but if you’re losing, get your lame ass out of town so we can go hire the last National Title Winning Head Coach because he’s the new guy that knows how to get it done.  In case you were wondering how absolutely insane (were talking beyond SLAPPY) it’s been down in the land of Crimson Tide, there have been:
  1.  Death threats involving Cade Foster (Kicker who missed all the figgies)
  2. One fan (woman) shooting and killing another fan (another woman) at a party for laughing about the loss and not taking it seriously enough
  3. And there’s a group of Bama fans (and they are  actually trying to collect signatures) that are telling the school to “reject” any bowl offer the school receives and boycott the BCS process due to the fact that if this were 2014, Bama would automatically be “in” the Final 4 and part of the 4 team playoff with a shot to win the National Title.
Think about that last one for a minute.  These fans are trying to convince a bunch of money grabbers to forego the cash that a bowl represents...but even more important:  Bama loses to their ARCH RIVAL, doesn’t have to play in the SEC Title game, and if this were next year, no worries.  They get another shot at the title.  Which harkens back to my original concern with the 4 team play-off and that the only way to qualify should be that you HAVE TO WIN YOUR CONFERENCE!  Period!  I don’t think, for example, if Sparty were to upset ohio, that they should be denied a spot in that 4 team play off (I know, I know…That last line was really hard to type).  In fact, for the sake of argument, my 4 team play-off this year would look like:
  1.  FSU – Duke Winner
  2. Sparty – ohio winner
  3. The SEC champ – Auburn or Mizzou
  4. Stanford-Arizona State winner
I hear you Big 12….But you don’t have a conference Championship and you don't have an undefeated team…It’s not my fault.  This is “fair” and doesn’t have anyone involved that hasn’t won their conference.  Gotta love that word “FAIR”…doncha’???  Where this ends up going is that I foresee an 8 Team play-off with Conference Champs (domers part of the ACC if they finish ABOVE the ACC champion) and anywhere between 1 and 3 at large teams included. 
Auto Bid Conferences Include:  B1G, Big12, SEC, ACC, Pac12 Champions.   One of the following:  AAC, Conference USA, MWC or MAC champ (whichever conference champ finishes higher in final rankings) and then 2 at large bids (or keep the big boys happy and make it 3 at large bids – sorry AAC, USA, MWC and MAC).  Of course, that would probably still allow Bama in…but at least there’s a reward for winning your conference.  Strangely, great minds think alike on this as right before I posted, I happened to read Frank the Tank’s latest blog entry where he discusses in financial detail theinevitable 8 team play-off.  But my thoughts still stand. 
B1G Championship:  In case you haven’t heard, The Italian Stallion just threw some “GREAT” bulletin board material out there saying that whoever wins the B1G Championship should play in the National Title Game.  While I get what he’s saying, he’s saying it WAY TOO EARLY.  You gotta love Dantonio and some of those mini-stroke moments that he has that must be a result of the heart attack he suffered a few years back where he simply must be thinking, F!*#% It, I’m saying what’s on my mind.  And he does.  And thank you, Mark.  We love ya;’ buddy!
Winston:  I haven’t brought it up simply because I think it’s a legal issue and should be dealt with that way.  But now, the delay in the Jameis Winston charges is clearly going to have an influence on the Heisman.  And while I think the trophy is much ado about nothing (unless a Michigan Guy wins it), I do think Jameis deserves a fair shot at getting the award assuming that he’s not going to have any charges pressed against him.  I don’t know how to read the tea leaves on this one.  Is it taking so long because there’s simply nothing there or is it taking so long because they have to throw the book at him?
Fred & Barney:  I know I said I was going to call for at least the canning of Barney this week.  I reneged.  I’m sorry about that and I had a complete list of reasons that are frankly still valid: 
  1.  Multiple games with obvious offensive play calls that were just wrong
  2. Two of the worst rushing totals in two games in Michigan History
  3. 12 consecutive quarters where Michigan didn’t score an offensive TD
  4.  and the list goes on…. 
And then I thought to myself:  Who or which O-Coordinator do I want for this team?  What, ideally, do you want in an O-coordinator?  I want an X’s and O’s guy that can make things happen, regardless of the talent he has at his disposal.  I want a coordinator that thinks out of the box and uses the talent he has to it’s fullest.  One team came to mind this year that in the past had been a running team that passed a bunch this season, LSU.  But I didn’t know who the O-Coordinator was for The Hatter, so I looked it up.  Cam Cameron – a former Michigan Man.  Damn…I wish Michigan would have thought of him a little sooner.  LSU’s problems weren’t on the offensive side of the ball this year..they just let everyone else score too much. 
So, where does that leave me?  I dunno – but I highly doubt that LSU is giving up Cameron…When Borges had Denard, things were not great, but I was still blaming the personnel…this year, I have to lay the blame of at least two losses at the feet of Barney.  I’ll give both Fred and Barney one more season and next year, it’ll be time to make the call. 

Monday, December 2, 2013

Love The Decision...Hate the Call???

Let’s get one thing straight.  I wasn’t happy with the decision and I actually thought Fred was maybe outcoaching Urban a little there to make ohio use their last time out with 0:32 left on the clock and then Michigan would come out and kick the field goal, and more or less force OT.  I mentioned it out loud in the stands and the guy next to me simply stated, “Go for it.”  I was surprised, but that’s the way I was seeing it.  OT at home is the conventional wisdom.  Then they came out and went for the two…And it was a very poorly called and executed play. 

However, in hind sight and after everyone at the tailgate more or less said it was the right decision because Michigan’s defense had not stopped Hyde and Miller for the entire 2nd half, well, I stand corrected on the decision.  HOWEVA, I will dispute and take issue with the call of the actual play.  Devin had to be as nervous as he’s ever been in a game and while I get that it might have been the greatest confidence builder and lead in to next season, you have to call a play that has a high level of success! 

And the MMQ is here to say:  That wasn’t it….

In addition, that wasn’t the first Whiskey-Tango-Foxtrot moment of the day for the MMQ.  Last week, just last week, Michigan only had 6 yards of offense in the 2nd half of the Iowa game well into the 4th quarter.  Saturday, Michigan was marching up and down the field against the suckeyes and I’m not sure that 12 guys on the ohio defense would have helped stop what Michigan was doing….

So what gives?  IS that poor play calling in the 11 other games played this season?  Has everyone reached a skill and maturity level that now makes them better for this one game? 

Someone interviewed Barney pre-game and he stated that the offense wouldn’t be leaving “anything in the bag…”  Well, I really wish Barney had opened the bag and reached into it a little more often and in a lot of other games that Michigan has played and lost this season.  Two I can think of right of the top of my head might have been victories with that type of aggressive screen passing getting the ball into open space style of offense.

Again, sour grapes at this point and I am still quite upset with the loss.  There are NO MORAL VICTORIES…You either beat the bad guys or you don’t.  It’s really that simple.  And to come that close and fail, well, in a way I would have preferred a blow-out.  At least I wouldn’t have all of these mixed emotions about what to do with this coaching staff.  I still want to fire Barney…But now I don’t know what to do.  Is it poor game planning on Fred’s part?  Not to mention that the Defense didn’t exactly blow sunshine up my skirt against ohio, either.  I don’t think Hyde is “all that and a bag of chips” kind of tailback, yet Mattison’s Defense made him look like a Heisman candidate….

So, there was an artificial spread of 16 points at kick-off that Michigan nearly overcame….Big Deal.  Great teams find a way to win that game.  The suckeyes were on the ropes.  And that’s when you deliver the death blow….

To make matters even worse, in another WTF moment of the day, Satan’s Warriors go down in what will forever be described as one of the greatest last plays of a collegiate football game to a team that had only won 2, (TWO – Dos, a couple) SEC games last season.  So, the mightiest team in the nation lost to a team that was not only not ranked in the top 25 to start the season, most prognosticators only had them finishing 3rd or 4th in the SEC West.  At best. 

Question:  Knowing how SEC schools celebrate after something like this and knowing how BADLY Bama fan must still feel requiring the need to drown their sorrows via clear and brown liquids……I wonder if there is there any alcohol left in the state of Alabama?

Add to that one of the two new kids on the block is in the other half of the SEC championship!  Mizzou beat A&M and has proven without question that the SEC East is comprised of a bunch of chumps. And any team could go into the SEC East (or west) and be competitive.  Period.  END OF ANY DISCUSSION ABOUT THE ALMIGHTY S-E-C…..

THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE ELITE OF THE ELITE IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL!  Ha!

Moving On....Moral Dilemma:  I’m torn as to who, as a Michigan Fan, I should root for Saturday.  I’m sure you all have your opinions that are reading and want to know what to do and which way we should lean at kick-off.  Well, Wiscy losing changed the picture a little for the MMQ.  Let me explain.

Before Wiscy lost, Sparty losing  the B1G Championship would have more or less INSURED that for the entire BCS ERA, Sparty would have NEVER PLAYED IN A BCS CONTEST!  And I would have really liked that.  Let me re-state:  I would have REALLY LIKED THAT.   To be able to say to every Sparty I know for the rest of my life that in the 16 years of the BCS…you never got a taste of what playing in a BCS game was like. 

Now, Sparty is almost assured of a BCS slot with whatever happens on Saturday.  If they win, they’re in the Rose.  If they lose, ohio goes to the BCS National Championship and Sparty still goes to the Rose – thanks for nothing Wiscy.  God…I wanna puke.  And Sparty, how big is that domer loss looking now? 

So, who do you root for?

The lesser of two evils (Even though after what I saw Saturday, I’m not convinced that the suckeyes can even stay on the same field with FSU) I guess is if Sparty somehow finds a way to win the B1G Championship in Indy….At least the suckeyes aren’t playing for the Natinoal Title and Sparty gets what’ll probably be a pissed off Stanford team looking for respect.  And FSU probably handles whoever comes out of the SEC championship game…At least it won’t be Bama.

Oh…what am I saying….Pray for the perpetual tie in Indy. It could happen……

SIDE NOTE:  Coach “Tough On Urban” Crime Meyer will NOT suspend the two players that initiated the 2nd quarter kick-off donnybrook and were subsequently ejected from the Michigan – ohio game.   Why this surprises ANYONE at this point is beyond the MMQ.  I was just wondering how many co-eds Hyde had smacked around the Friday night before the game, but I didn’t see the report. 

5 Stages of Slappy Fan Grief

PRE –GRIEF:  HOPE!  Suckeyes, Duke, Mizzou…And AUBURN!….Those are the last 4 teams left that have the hope of somehow doing the impossible.  For the suckeyes, it’s two fold.  Those fans have to realize they don’t have a defense.  So, they will need to somehow draw up the exact same gameplan against Sparty that they had for Michigan.  Score and score a lot.  Mizzou needs to win and then they are rooting for Sparty to do the unthinkable….meanwhile, if Duke were to somehow pull off the improbable and impossible, well, there’s going to a whole lot of SEC fans that will be doing cartwheels….I actually want to add Michigan fans, Gator Fans and anyone else that feels that their team did less than what was expected this season.  Auburn and Mizzou made it clear that you can turn it all around in 1 season.  That’s all it takes.  Hope…it springs eternal. 

  1.  Denial and Isolation  - suckeyes…the smart fans are here.  They can no longer deny that their team is flawed.  They saw their beloved suckeyes get 600+ yards hung on them by a team that barely beat Akron and U-Conn (that have 1 win between them on the season).  They also barely beat a Michigan team that had lost 4 games and had two games with negative rushing yards.  Suckeye fans can’t be happy with the close victory.  If anything, the suckeye fans are rubbing your buck nuts hoping that you can pull off one more smoke and mirrors miracle in Indy on Saturday. 
  2. ANGER  - Again, I’m right here.  I’m so mad I could spit.  I’m mad that Michigan doesn’t have a better record this season and I’m really mad that we played our arch-rival to the final seconds and then could NOT FIND A WAY TO PULL OFF THE UPSET.  I got even angrier when the Auburn Tigers as 12 point underdogs managed to pull off the impossible and beat the evil empire….Yep, the MMQ wants this stage all to himself today.  If you want to join me, feel free.  But anger it is.  You have to win Saturday.  That’s what rivalries are all about.  I’m sure there are some Bama fans here, too, but I suspect they are all still too stunned to speak and voice any anger over what happened.  They lost everything in 1 second…The SEC Title Shot, the BCS Title Shot….Everything.  They will be looking at the 3rd place SEC bowl (which I think is the Capitol 1 Bowl) and probably not even get a BCS Bowl nod…Hee-hee……
  3. Bargaining –If there’s anyone left out there bargaining right now, it has to be teams that are thinking that there are still some BCS hopes left for them.  Or bowl chances at all.  If your team has 6 wins, you know they’re headed somewhere….but until all of this is settled, it’s tough to know when or where they’re gonna play. 
  4. Depression –Bama fans in here in droves…That fanbase does not do well after a loss as they don’t get a lot of practice losing.  I’ve heard (not seen) that there are actually some “Fire Saban” websites that got put up and that a small group of fans is taking up a collection to have Texas fly Saban in for an interview.  If there was ever a time that Nick would answer that call, now would be it, Texas.  Go get him. 
  5. Acceptance – Everyone not going to a bowl game and that lost to the arch-rival.  It was a crappy year, Gator Fan.  But if Auburn has shown you anything, well, it has shown you that it can all be turned around in a single off-season.   Hokies, Mountaineers, Wildcats, Trojans…you know who you are!
The BCS Mess
 
It had to happen, and it did.  Satan’s Warriors go down in embarrassing fashion and Auburn establishes SEC West dominance.  As for the rest of the mess...

Harris
USAToday
Computer
BCS
Rank
Team
Record
Rank
Pts
%
Rank
Pts
%
Avg
Avg
Last Week
1.
12-0
1
2617
.9970
1
1546
.9974
.990
.9948
2
2.
12-0
2
2488
.9478
2
1462
.9432
.960
.9503
3
3.
11-1
3
2422
.9227
3
1437
.9271
.920
.9233
4
4.
11-1
4
2262
.8617
4
1333
.8600
.840
.8539
1
5.
11-1
5
2231
.8499
5
1315
.8484
.830
.8428
5
6.
10-1
6
2083
.7935
6
1248
.8052
.690
.7629
7
7.
10-2
7
1873
.7135
10
1034
.6671
.740
.7069
8
8.
10-2
8
1841
.7013
7
1100
.7097
.700
.7037
10
9.
10-1
9
1778
.6773
7
1100
.7097
.600
.6623
9
10.
11-1
10
1758
.6697
9
1037
.6690
.620
.6529
11
11.
10-2
13
1277
.4865
13
765
.4935
.770
.5833
12
12.
10-2
12
1398
.5326
12
843
.5439
.520
.5321
13
13.
10-2
11
1444
.5501
11
853
.5503
.460
.5201
6
14.
12-0
15
1104
.4206
18
547
.3529
.670
.4812
14
15.
9-3
14
1258
.4792
14
720
.4645
.320
.4213
17

I’m sure the Big 12 is wishing they had a championship game right about now…I know Okie State would love to have that West Virginia game back.  And we all know Sparty would LOVE to have the domer game back…hee-hee….Acutally, I'm sure Bama Nation wishes we were in the 4 team play-off...but not till next year! 
 
Next week, we’ll be able to review the bowl situation clearly, but early projections have Michigan showing up anywhere from the Buffalo Wild Wings against Texas to theTexas Bowl (?) against Texas Tech….Who knows, really….

Idle Thoughts From Saturday

-Where has this offense been all year?
-3rd play from scrimmage…AND WE SCORE??
-Jeez, I mean I love it…But Jeez…
-This team could have done so much more with this type of game plan every week…
-OR am I missing something?
-Are the suckeyes that bad on defense?
-Could be….
-Which means they will embarrass the B1G if they get to the title game…
-WE NEED TO BEAT THIS TEAM!
-Looking good!
-Stop Hyde fergodsake!
-Stop Miller, too!
-We can’t stop anybody…
-But at least we can score.
-Oh, that was nice suckeye player…
-Flop everyone off in the stadium on National TV.
-That should get you a nice little letter from the B1G office
-At least it better.
-We’ve still got a shot.
-Devin to Devin is working great!
-Butt is having a Big Day!
-Youngest Daughter:  “Let’s Go Butt!”
-Somehow, I think she’s saying that just to tick me off….
-But how can I be mad today?
-All right!  SCORE!
-Two points?  Really???
-The crowd is chanting for 2…but I dunno…
-I have a bad feeling about this…
-Oh no…….Not like this…
-There’s always the onside kick…No…
-Would OT have been so bad?
-Auburn has done the impossible!!!
-Show me Saban NOW AND NOTHING ELSE FOR THE NEXT 5 MINUTES!
-That’s what I want to see…
-That little troll’s face all scrunched up…
-Bama Nation will undoubtedly call for his firing at this point…
-Texas, here we come!

The Hot Seat

I can’t believe it’s over.  The Final Hot Seat Mascot nominee is upon us.  Leryn did great last week and slipped into the finals easily.  This year’s final nominee was a suggestion and also a request that I not end the Hot Seat Mascot Season with a Blonde that would come in and win from behind, so to speak.  Without further ado:  Adriana Lima!







 

Okay, so we know now after multiple “backings” of Muschamp that Florida is off the list with respect to searching for a coach. 

That still leaves USC for SURE and now add to the list Wyoming.  Not a big job, but still looking.  And the USC coach is pulling the same re-treads (Petersen – Boise – Just said no today) that USC tried before they hired Kiffin.  Something about college coaching searches is just wrong….AD’s need to find the inside list of available good guys….

GONE LIST:  They don’t call it Black Monday for nothing…I added one name here today so far, but there will probably be more before it’s over.  Florida dumped a truck-load of assistants, but Muschamp remains. 

  1. LANE KIFFIN
  2. Paul Pasqualoni
  3. Treadwell
  4. Carlson – Valpraiso….(I know, not exactly on my radar, either.)
  5. Ron English – Eastern Michigan. 
  6. Mussman – North Dakota
  7. David Christianson - Wyoming
Hot Seat Rank – Getting Serious as this is the time when the Carousel gets fire up!

  1. Mack Brown – New AD? New Coach?
  2. London – Virginia….Its not a good situation…
  3. Ogeron – All the guy did was win, but an interim won’t have the USC job…Jack Del Rio interviewed last week…
  4. Weiss:  Can’t believe he’s still there…
  5. Paul Johnson – Lost to Georgia…Look Out.
  6. Pelini – It’s not good in Corn land either…
  7. Biliema:  Arkansas Nation does not like a B1G re-treas – no SEC wins
  8. Norm Chow - Hawaii
  9. Holgorensen:  No Bowl doesn’t bode well for Dana…
FMQ Betting Results:

Not a great week, but not terrible, either.  We held our own, but should have stuck with the master plan to take points in rivalry games, no matter what the numbers are telling us….

Iowa (+3) @ Nebraska:  Take the Huskers and lay the 3 for $50

LOSE……
Domers (+14) @ Stanford:  Take the domers and the 14 for $40

WIN!  Bank $76
Miami @ Pitt (+3):  Take Pitt and the 3 for $40

LOSE….One where taking the points bit me in the Butt….
Gophers (+14) @ Sparty:  Take the Gophers and the 14 for $50

WIN!  Bank $95
Bama @ Auburn (+11):  Take Bama and lay the 11 for $40

LOSE….But this one was worth it!
Oregon @ OSU (+21.5):  Take the Ducks and lay the 21.5 for $40

LOSE….What happened to the Ducks? 
Ohio @ Michigan (+14.5):  Take Michigan and the 14.5 for $75

WIN!  Bank $142.50
Parlay!

Why not?  It’s late and doubling up is getting tougher…
Michigan-Huskers-Gophers  $50 – LOSE….

Starting BANK:       $397

TOTAL WIN:             $313.50         
BANK:                       $710.50