Big Dance Tuesday - Brackets Re-Visited

First, in an effort to get the post out on Monday amid work issues and other pressing matters, I didn’t have the time to do as deep a dive into the Mid-West region and the other regions as I would have liked.  Upon 2^nd review and after having filled in the Mid-West Bracket about as many different ways as you can, it kind of dawned on me why I was having such a hard time.

It’s a loaded bracket.  From the number 1 all the way down to the 14 seed.  Yes, I’m even struggling with Mercer vs. Duke.  Mercer is in the Atlantic Sun and that is the conference that produced FGC - Florida Gulf Coast last season, and the Mercer Bears actually BEAT FGC in the tournament to get here….It’s the big upset that will get somebody - Maybe dook???  And Mercer has 4, FOUR kids shooting 40% from the 3 point line.  Yeah, everybody knows Duke has a “Jabari Parker”, but will Duke be caught looking ahead?  It will be fun to see Wichita State tested, but the committee did a disservice to all the teams in this region making it so much stronger than the other three. The Midwest Region features four current top 10 teams (dook, Witchy State, Louisville, and Michigan), a former top 10 team, the Saint Louis Bilikens and preseason No. 1 Kentucky. No other region has more than two teams in the top 10.  Which kind of goes without saying. 

So, does any of that make sense and why does Michigan always seem to get this draw?  WHO THE F!@#%^ is on the Committee from Sparty-land and ohio?  And are they the same people that hate dook, Kentucky, Louisville and NC State?

I wanna’ know now, dammit!  I want some answers!

Okay – enough with the rant.  But I’m telling you that the Mid-West region is where you will make your money this year in the office pool.  Get it right (or close) and you’ll be fine heading into the F4 weekend.  Screw it up and you could be looking at nothing but blanks and empty points on Sunday night of this weekend - yes...the 1st weekend.

South – Something I overlooked but have since corrected on my sheet is the New Mexico seed #7.  I put Stanford in initially because 3^rd place Pac12 and they had some nicer wins…not great, nice.  But New Mexico beat Fisher’s SDSU team twice and is a pretty good offensive team.  Don’t be surprised to see them in the Sweet 16 after an upset win over number 2 Seed Kansas without Embiid.  Which means that they will probably roll and beat the Orange as well….which would be nice.   Something else that has been REALLY BUGGING ME is what to do with Shaka Smart’s VCU defense against UCLA’s Steve Alford’s offense….I wanna’ believe in Shaka, but I cannot doubt the Alford.  It’s getting close to coin flip time on THAT one…Of course, all that is assuming that Shaka’s Commodores can get by the $6 Million Dollar Man…Steve Austin hasn’t lost in 2014 and is on a roll.  Point Spread would suggest a tight game….Interesting. I hate riding the Gators to the F4…But I’ma havin’ a little trouble seeing anyone else emerge from this bracket….

West – I’ve reviewed last year’s bracket and something I did right that a lot of other people did wrong was to pick Oregon all the way to the Sweet16. Oregon is slightly under-seeded and is probably a lot more like a 5 seed than a 7.  They are a quiet team that just wins, and they were on a roll up to the quarter-finals of the Pac12 Tourney.  Do yourself a favor – Beware the Ducks, their offense and their 3 point capability and remember that Bucky Badger kind of sucks at getting to the Sweet 16 and F4 in seasons when they are really good and SUPPOSED to do great things.  Taking Creighton to the Elite 8, assuming they manage the seed line offsets that a little with Bucky….I hate Wiscy.  The NDSU Bison could be that 12 seed like Florida Gulf Coast last year.  44% from the 3 point line and number 1 overall in FG shooting makes them the an interesting team in this tourney…That’s impressive and just the kind of thing that better teams get frustrated with and end up tanking against.  If they weren’t playing Fisher in the very next round, I’d be tempted.  Fisher’s Aztecs have DEFENSE but have been upset by teams that can score – New Mexico (2X) and I think everyone knows that I think defense without offense is over-rated…especially in Hoops.  I might switch and take the Bison to the Sweet 16, but right now…no.  However it’s interesting.  And if there is one thing I will believe in, it’s the DE (defensive efficiency) of the Wildcats matched with their offense getting them to the F4. 

East – This should be a fineable offense in the NCAA when regions are put together that have an RPI that’s collectively as low (High) as this one.  Why bother with the RPI thing anyway if you’re going to do this?  I pretty much have the chalk in this bracket at this point.  I’ve got GW over a sick and ailing Memphis as a 9-8 upset (actually 9 is the favorite pick historically as the 9 seeds are running about 51%) and I’m sticking with Harvard in the 12-5 upset, and Iowa State to upset #2 Seed Villanova.  I know that one’s a gamble, but the Big12 needs to show up in this tournament.  And I’m simply not buying the Villanova hype…However, Something that’s eating at me a little is the potential…POTENTIAL for North Carolina – Sparty Elite 8 Matchup….That’s interesting and could prove to be the mental road block that gets Sparty in trouble.  For obvious reasons, I guess I’m having a hard time jumping on the Sparty bandwagon, but one of my brackets will have them going deep.

As far as the Elite 8 and F4 go?  It’s still very much up in the air for the MMPG.  I’ve had it going multiple ways, but right now, I will say that I have one too many #1 Seeds in the F4…I think this is going to be a mixed seed F4 and I think you should only have one 1Seed in it….Florida.  After that, I think you need to look close….

Is there a Florida Gulf Coast out there lurking at a 12 or higher?  Wow….Harvard fits the bill, but they play Sparty in the 2^nd round.   The NCState-Xavier winner could easily upset the fading 5 Seed Bilikens in the Mid-West. The Hawkeyes or Tennessee as an 11 seed could wreak havoc in the Mid-West and beat Duke and then Michigan.  I think both those teams were under seeded.  Eastern Kentucky upsetting a 2 Seed Kansas in the South?  I am really liking the Bison more and more…but I’ve never seen them play!  Anything’s possible and if you want the Billion, you have to figure it out!

More tomorrow as the plot thickens…..And hopefully we will get some better ideas after NCState and Xavier play tonight. 

 

And the 11 Seeds present an interesting challenge. 

 

As I was comparing the stats of the 6-11 seeds, for the most part, they looked awfully even

Favorite listed first…

Baylor vs. Nebraksa  (+3.5 – and closing…opened at 4)

ohio vs. Dayton (+6)– Don’t kid yourself and this is a spread I would jump on if in Vegas.  The Flyers are for real and the suckeyes won’t schedule them in the pre-season.  Dayton WANTS this game…

Iowa/Tenn vs. UMass – Umass slid sideways into a way over-seeded 6 spot and has the lowest RPI as a 6 seed. No line on this one as the play-in game is tonight…

UNC vs. Providence (+4 and tightening) – I thought a no brainer, but Vegas has this as a 4 point spread and its dropping.  I’m not buying it and this must be some sort of anomaly….Providence beat people in their conference, but OE and DE are both in the 100’s….

Why all the pain and difficulty with the 11-6 matchups?  I went to Bracket Science and sure enough, Pete made everything clear and helped me understand what I THOUGHT I was seeing!

 

The big surprise comes with two and three seeds. They are both weaker than their historical counterparts—and significantly worse than last year. This could spell more upsets in the second round, particularly for two seeds. They’re much worse than 2013, not to mention the 2003-13 average. Meanwhile, this group of seven seeds is stronger than average, though weaker than last year.
The seed position that really sticks out is the four seed. I thought last year’s group—with Syracuse and Michigan—was imposing. This year’s bunch, led by Louisville and Michigan State, but also including dangerous UCLA and San Diego State squads, is significantly better. Their average Pythag is just .0004 lower than that of the two seed group and solidly ahead of the two seeds.

As for the 5v12 and 6v11 upset match-ups, the numbers indicate that five seeds are more vulnerable than average or last year, but 12 seeds are weaker. Meanwhile six seeds, while slightly better than the 2013 class, are still below average. And 11 seeds are well above average. Is this the year when 11 seeds take over the mantle of Cinderella from 12 seeds?

As the 150 year old knight in "Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade" told Indy,  "Choose Wisely...." or...well, you remember what happens....

MARCH MADNESS IS FINALLY HERE!

Okay – I will throw a brief congratulations out to Sparty at this point because if I didn’t, everyone would call me a Michigan Slappy for refusing to acknowledge that Sparty played a great game and won.  No excuses, but I will say that it was a very uncharacteristic Michigan team that took the floor and only shot sub 40% or so from the field and turned the ball over way too many times…That and Sparty’s interior post game were more or less the separators in this one. 

I only hope we get a repeat of this game on Monday night, April 7^th!  That would be fitting and somewhat awesome!

I will say here that I will never, EVER get tired of this and may watch until I’m old and gray (Okay – older and grayer!):

 

"Pulling a Craft..."

 

With apologies to what is otherwise a really good kid and a nice guy but still a much hated Suckeye:  Can we come up for a name for this?  Like, you know, “He pulled a Craft on the last second shot?” that lives on forever in NCAA perpetuity???  That would make me very happy!  I’m glad to be done with that kid and I’m especially tickled that Michigan could add another sweep to the 2013-14 season of ohio.  Yes, I felt very good on Saturday…Sunday, not so much. 

MADNESS

The brackets are out and as usual I’m going to be a little pre-occupied for the next three and a half days as I contemplate, decided, re-decide, erase, second guess, and finally throw my hands up and probably go with the initial bracket that I completed (in less than 5 minutes this year – a new record!) and maybe one other “crazy” or “insanity” bracket that does something silly like putting 3 B1G teams in the Final 4…or has Michigan vs. Sparty on Monday night…For Real!  It can happen!

Michigan got the seed I was hoping for, but to say that Michigan pulled the toughest bracket is an understatement.  The committee went OUT OF IT’S WAY to insure that there would be no F4 repeats from last year as 3 of the F4 teams from last year are in the same region!  (Witchy State, Louisville, and Michigan).  While I get that part of it (apparently, last year’s F4 was as low a draw for TV as it’s ever been – not sure why that is, but when you lose Tobacco Road, well…You lose Tobacco Road.

Still, Witchy State was and still is the Feel Good team of the season, but their road to a repeat appearance is filled with land mines, to say the least.  Greg Marshall’s task last year was quite easy once he had defeated Gonzaga….So, what was a gift last year is a curse this year as the Shockers may suffer the same fate as they dealt to the Zags from the 9 seed in the 2^nd round…

Bracket toughness (by RPI rankings) in order with comments on each:

Midwest – Witchy State, Michigan, dook, Louisville:  All I can say is, really?  We couldn’t have had UCLA or SDSU in this bracket?  I’d even take the ‘Cuse over dook here because…well, the Boeheim Curse and all….I like a suddenly hot Kentucky in a 8 over 1 Seed upset of the Shockers, but remember that EVERYONE will be picking that upset…so the upset “pick” might actually be the chalk.  But if the Wildcats can get it together, they could own this bracket.  I like Michigan to the Sweet 16 but a re-match with dook looks scary…not to mention that the 2013 Championship re-match with the Cards - hottest team in the NCAA right now - would be next…Yeah, an easy bracket, for sure.  St. Louis is not playing well right now and if you are looking for a 12-5, I like NCState (after handling Xavier) to beat the Bilikens in that one.  Point spread also suggests the same thing.  Iowa or Tennessee over UMass is also worth a look as a potential 11- 6 upset in the making….

West – ‘Zona, Wiscy, Creighton, SDSU:  I was going to call this the all upset bracket, but now I’m not so sure.  I see a lot of balance in the top 4 seeds and Creighton could be the sleeper that comes out of this one…But I like the chalk here for some reason all of a sudden and I like Wiscy as a potential F4 team – IF THEY CAN GET PAST HOT SHOOTING OREGON.  Yes, Smart and Okie State will be a test for Zona, but don’t believe the hype.  Arizona can play….I would have taken the Huskers against ANY OTHER 6 SEED except the one they got (well maybe not UNC) – Baylor.  Baylor can score and shoot the 3 pointer and the MMPG is awed by bright and shiny things…Defense, not so much.  I’m not sure what to do here…Another 12-5 is ND state (Awesome Off Eff) over Oklahoma who kind of slid sideways into the tournament.  Again, the bright and shiny thing stuff…

South – Florida, Kansas, Cuse, UCLA:  If this had been Virigina on the top line, it would have been the easiest bracket.   KU is fading fast and the Orange are the Orange…UCLA winning the Pac 12 will be true test for Florida and that could be a tough game to pick. In the only 11-6 upset I like the Flyers to beat ohio…Gotta go with Offense and Dayton’s got a lot of that plus an in-state chip on their shoulder.  In fact, I might give Dayton a serious look as an 11 seed all the way to the Elite 8 in this one! 

East – Virginia, Villanova, Iowa State, Sparty:  If anything, you could REVERSE this 1-4 seed line-up and I think you’d have a more representative indication of relative strength of this region.  Let’s face it:  Virginia won the ACC with a favorable schedule.  Villanova is fading fast and Iowa State is a lot like Michigan – Huge on offense and has sort of heard about this thing called “defense”, but has never really tried it on for size.  Sparty doesn’t even get a test until the Elite 8.  UConn maybe upsets Villanova in the 2^nd round….And look for Amaker to repeat as a 12-5 upset over an unpredictable up and down Cincinnati team….Is Providence capable of pulling the upset?  I don’t think so….

So, yes, the committee once again did the Izzo-Troll a HUGE favor and placed the 4^th seeded Sparty in the easiest bracket with a relatively simple road to the F4.  But, whoever survives the Midwest Region will have literally seen a schedule and line-up that is akin to going to Hell and surviving the fires of Hades and will be ready for whatever the F4 can offer. 

I will have my bracket put together and will post either tomorrow or Wednesday after I’ve had a full day or two of deliberation and mental digestion of what’s going on…

From the Book of Little Known Facts:  Did you know that the State of Indiana did not field a single team in this year’s NCAA Tourney?  They have 11 schools in D-1 and not one even got close…For Tom Crean and everyone else in Indiana, if you would have just kept your home-grown talent in state, you could have quite a line-up.  Hell, even if you kept the State of Michigan out of your state and kept that talent, you’d have a scary good team!

Mitch McGary, GRIII, Zak Irvin, Spike Albrecht, Sean Lonergran, Andrew Dakich from Michigan are all Indiana kids…

Gary Harris and Branden Dawson from Sparty.

Could you imagine that?  I’m glad Michigan and Sparty recruit well!

Little Known Fact II:  The Hoosiers couldn’t even make the NIT!  This is a big deal in a Basketball oriented University like IU…I can imagine that they are as frustrated as they have ever been in Hoosier land right now.  To add a little insult to injury, IU told theCBI that they wouldn’t be playing in that tournament, either, and declined theinvite stating that, “We’re Indiana.  Wedon’t play in the CBI.”  Well, yeah…um…you haven’t really played all year anywhere so I guess that’s appropriate thinking there.

State of the Game

Because basketball is one of the best sports out there and is AWESOME at every level, I would be re-miss if I didn’t give a call out of recogntion to my niece down in Cleveland, well, Olmsted Falls, OH, to be precise, and her 3rd - 4^th Grade Team’s accomplishment this year.  Here’s the link to the Olmsted Falls newspaper and for those of you toolazy to click it, I’ve re-produced all the important stuff right here:

Perfect record – The Olmsted Falls fourth-grade girls basketball team had a 24-0 record this year.

It won the Lake Erie Basketball League’s regular season and end-of-the-season tournament. The girls’ achievements began early. They also took first place in the Tiger Rage pre-season tournament, the Bulldog Holiday Classic and the Independence Youth Tournament.

Team members are Kylee Urban, Sydney Moses, Mia Kalich and Paige Kohler, all third graders and Maddy Sagerman, Sara Glover, Sammie Gaba, Aubrey Thiel, Katie Voisinet and Lauren Noernberg, fourth graders. Dawn Moses and Kim Urban are the coaches.

Congratulations, girls, for this perfect season.

Way To Go Sara!  Uncle Russ couldn’t be prouder and I’m only sad that we didn’t get down there to see you play this season!  But I will definitely keep it on my radar for next year!

MADNESS!!!! What's a Quintillion???

Okay – It’s almost here!  The bracket is about to come out and it’s time for the rubber to hit the road and everybody needs to step up and make their picks!

I was having a conversation with a group of casual fans the other night and I was once again hit with the open question of, “How hard can it really be to fill out a perfect bracket?” due to the Billion Dollar Bracket Challenge that Warren Buffet and Quicken Loans has thrown out there.  Well, for one thing, it’s never been done.  So, I’m gonna’ go out on a limb and say based on that evidence, it’s pretty hard.   But that didn’t convince these guys…I started with some simple math and they pooh-poohed it saying I didn’t need to worry about the high seeds….Okay, I agree with that.  But there’s still a lot of variations that exist. 

For the sake of argument and because I love probability, let’s do some math and figure a couple of things out.  First, if you filled the bracket out with every conceivable iteration that existed, you would need to complete a bracket that first considered every team winning the championship (yes, even the 16 seeds) and then progressing through each of the 63 (7) remaining teams to win the whole thing against that 1 Seed….  So, it’s a power calculation of 2 choices to the 64^th, which equals:

18,446,744,073,709,600,000  (that’s uh...lets' see, million, billion, trillion, zillion...oh yeah, Quintillion!) 

 (for reference, the Universe is 13.7 Billion years old, or

 5,184,518,400,000,000,000 Quintillion seconds… 

So, even if you were filling the brackets out at a rate of 100,000,000 a second, you wouldn’t be able to even get half of the variations in from the time the brackets come out until they are due on Thursday at noon….

But that’s not reality.  We can assume a couple of things:

No16 Seed has ever won a game.  Now, you can assume that there is on a 2 to the 60^th power of possibilities as you won’t have to complete a bracket for every 16 Seed winning the title Variation, which gives us:

 1,152,921,504,606,850,000  Quintillion! That’s pretty Good!  We knocked off over 17 Q brackets!

 However, the news gets better!  Based on the fact that we know from history that only 3 15 seeds have ever won a SINGLE GAME, we can reduce the number of brackets we need to fill out by another 3, meaning 2 to the 57^th power:

144,115,188,075,856,000 – Hey!  Getting manageable…Were out of the Quintillions!

Also, assume for a second that there have never been ANY 12 through 16 seeds in the Final Four!  If we wanted to eliminate upsets early, we could then take another 20 decisions out of the matrix giving us 2 to the 37^th power:

137,438,953,472   That’s only in the Billions!  I think that’s almost doable!

But wait!  What if we assume per the Bracket Science Championship Criteria that only 8 teams this season can actually win the whole thing?  Now, we can limit the number of seeds we have to take all the way to the championship and only take them to their “Seed Limit” of where they would lose to a higher seed.  This one is tricky as we have to do two calculations and add them together.  So, we in effect need to take the 8 champions we pick per Bracket Science, or 2 to the 8^th power and then add the remaining 29 seeds for the total potential scenarios against those 8 seeds winning, or 2 to the 29^th giving us:

536,870,912  Million!  That’s DOABLE!!!!  For a Billion Dollars!  Isn’t it?  Come On! 

 

Who’s with me???

Okay…By your silence I’m guessing that you’re still thinking it’s an impossible task.  And I happen to agree with you.  There’s only:

 345,600 seconds between 6 PM Sunday and Noon Thursday. 

 Which means we would all still need to fill out 1,500 or so brackets per second….

Wow…No wonder everyone came out with a Billion Dollar Bracket idea….It looks impossible....because it is.

Anyway, have fun filling out your brackets and may the best (and LUCKIEST) man have a shot at winning the Billion…

 Me, I just wanna’ win the office pool.

B1G Tourney Time! Brackets and All!

It’s B1G Tourney Time!  So why not do a little Bracket Practice and complete a B1G Tourney Bracket for giggles and grins?  Yes, why not indeed!!!

Game 1:  Today at noon the B1G Tourney will kick off with 2 squads that had rather disappointing seasons and they both need to win the B1G to have any shot at post season play.  (Granted, they should each be eligible for the NIT).  The Illini and the Hoosiers should really stick it to each other today and I suspect that the Illini may prevail in this one having to face #1 Seed Michigan tomorrow.

As for the rest of today’s games, Who I like and Why:

Game 2:  Suckeyes vs. Purdon’t:  In all honesty, I hate picking ohio here for the simple reason that they seemed to be sliding into March without the typical ohio identity of having a really good offense (they don’t) and a serviceable defense (this, they kind of have).  Purdon’t could rally and turn into Purdue and easily win this game.  But, the gambler in me says to go with the higher seed here and hope

Game 3:  Gophers vs PSU:  Didn’t we just see this game?  Uh, yeah…we did.  And for some reason, the Gophers looked incredibly desperate in it and PSU looked like a team that is more than capable.  Again, while I believe the blue kitty kats can find a way to beat this team, the Gophers want (and NEEED) it more if they want to keep there bubble hopes alive.  Take the Gophers….

Game 4:  Iowa vs. the Purple Kitties:  Wow…Iowa should win this game, but everyone seems like they’ve had their way with the Hawkeyes at one point or another.  If Northwestern wants to play post season, they have to win the B1G Tourney.  That probably won’t happen, but it would be nice to have an upset on Day 1…I guess the Illini fit that bill, so stay with the Hawkeyes here to advance and play Sparty.

Friday: 
Game 5:  Michigan vs. Illinois:  Yes, in the 1^st day’s only upset, the Illini then get the opportunity (?) to face the Big Boys of the B1G.  They really didn’t like the way the last game turned out and don’t expect the same kind of blow-out this time.  But I would suspect that Michigan finds a way to beat the Illini again for a 2nd time this season.

Game 6:  Nebraska vs. the Suckeyes:  In what in any other year would be an upset, taking Nebraska here is taking the chalk.  And I’m not sure I completely like it, but look at the OE for the Huskers vs. ohio and the decision becomes a little clearer….the Huskers aren’t afraid to score, regardless of the opponents D.  Take the Huskers to make the Semis and look to seek revenge against Michigan’s season sweep!

Game 7:  Wiscy vs. Gophers:  While I think this is the easiest game to pick in the quarterfinals, it could present problems for a Wiscy squad that had some difficulty with the Gophers earlier in the season.  This could be an OT game, but stick with the B1G Tourney favorite (yes, they are favored over Michigan!) to win a close one.

Game 8:  Sparty vs. Iowa:  This is another game where my instincts are screaming “Stick with the Seed Line!” but my logic is saying something completely different.  I don’t think Iowa loses 3 in a row to a faltering sparty team that has actually seen an increase in Turnovers and a reduction in FT% in the last 10 games of the regular season.  I think the Hawkeyes find a way and earn a slightly better NCAA seed in the process.  Take Iowa to go to the Semis in the Tourney's first BIG UPSET!!!

Saturday

Game 9:  Michigan vs. Nebraska:  It’ll be tight.  Expect a big game from the bench and that includes Spike and Irvin.  Michigan finds a way and plays on Sunday against the Wiscy – Iowa winner.

Game 10:  Wiscy vs. Iowa:  Does Iowa continue to roll and get revenge against Wiscy for that last second home loss?  Yeah, they do!  IOWA IS ON A ROLL!!!

SUNDAY

Game 11:  Michigan vs. Iowa:  In a surprise match-up that doesn’t include Wiscy, Michigan and Iowa square off for the rubber match of the season.  Iowa takes an early double digit lead, but Michigan shoots its way back in to a victory in the 2^nd half against a slightly weary Hawkeye squad playing its 4th game in as many days to take the B1G Tourney Championship!

Here’s the final bracket completed:

Brackets, Brackets, Brackets!

The State of the Game

Monday, I asked the somewhat rhetorical question, “Just how important, EXACTLY, is a Number 1 seed in today’s NCAA Tournament?”  I mean, I get that the number 1 seed has traditionally been the hallmark of the great teams and a reward for a season well played.  But in the “modern” NCAA, does the number 1 seeding really mean that much for a capable and upset minded team with a 2-3 or 4 seed?  And even higher than that?

Is there any way to analyze the numbers from previous tournaments and determine how often a #1 seed makes the final game and wins the whole enchilada?  There’s some simple things we can look at initially and then get deeper into the information as we go along up to the tournament.

Let’s look at the last 10 seasons’ Final 4 Teams and eventual winners:

2013 (1 Seeds:  Kansas, Gonzaga, Indiana, Louisville):

1 Seeds to make it to the Sweet 16: Louisville, Kansas, Indiana.  (Indiana and Kansas lost Sweet 16 games)

Final Four:  MW1:  Louisville  W9:  Wichita State   S4: MICHIGAN   E4: Syracuse

Champion:  Louisville over Michigan.

Comment: Nobody had Mark Few’s Zags going that deep last year and many picker’s had Kansas going down early as well.  And Wichita State rode a 9 seed slot all the way to the Final 4, albeit some have argued that it was the easiest bracket. The surprise loser was Indiana as many thought Syracuse lacked the defense to play with the B1G teams.  Louisville wins it all as 1 Seed over an upset minded and determined 4 seed from Michigan.

2012 1 Seeds:  Michigan State, Kentucky, North Carolina, Syracuse

1 Seeds to make it to the Sweet 16:  Kentucky, North Carolina, Syracuse, Sparty

Final Four:    S1:  Kentucky    W4: Louisville   E2: Ohio State   MW2:  Kansas

Champion:  Kentucky…..

Comment:  This was a year that if you DIDN’T take Kentucky, your bracket was only part of the overall 4% in the country that didn’t have the Wildcats winning it all….  Meaning you are probably a Suckeye, sparty, Dookie, Tar Heel, Cardinal, or Jayhawk with delirious hopes….So, it skews the data somewhat…

2011  1 Seeds:  Duke, Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh

1 Seeds that made the Sweet 16:  Kansas, Duke (barely), Ohio State.  Pitt was CLEARLY the early disappointment this year….

Final Four:   E4: Kentucky   W3: U-Conn   SW11: VCU   SE8: Butler

Champion:  U-Conn over Butler

Comment:  This was an upset picker’s DREAM season with respect to the brackets.  All 1 seeds eliminated prior to the Final Four.  This is the kind of season we’re currently in the middle of with no real domination of any team at present.  VCU and Butler were both huge surprises and U-Conn and Kentucky had some stumbles mid-season that cost them 1-Seeds.  But it didn’t matter!

2010   1 Seeds:  Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke, Kansas

1 Seeds that made the Sweet 16:  Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke

Final Four:   M5:  Sparty  W5:  Butler  E2:  West Virginia  S1:  Duke

Champion:  Duke over Butler

Comment:  Long live the 5 Seed!  This was a season that was again marred by tough inter-conference play that knocked great teams out of the 1 seeding.  But that didn’t hinder them into making a deep run.  Unfortunately, the two 5 Seeds went head to head in the semi’s, making a 5 vs. 5 match-up in the final impossible…but Butler almost did pull off the upset Championship win after handily beating sparty….

2009  1 Seeds: UNC, Pitt, U-Conn, Louisville..(Can anyone say “Big East OVERATED???)

1 Seeds that Made Sweet 16:  Everyone…Nuts…

Final Four:  MW2:  Sparty  W1:  U-Conn  E3:  Villanova   S1:  UNC

Champion:  UNC over Sparty

Comment:  Another year where the favorites and the chalk picks were the way to go.  In fact, in this particular tournament, the only real upsets were a 10-7 by Michigan and a 12-5 by Wiscy and Cleveland State over Wake Forest (13-4).  Again, a bad year to use for any kind of argument for “A #1 Seed ain’t EVERYTHING!”

2008  1 Seeds: Kansas, Memphis, UCLA, UNC

1 Seeds that made the Sweet 16:  ALL

Final Four  E1: North Carolina  S1:  Memphis  M1:  Kansas  W1:  UCLA

Champion:  Kansas over Memphis

Comment:  This year REALLY SUCKED for the lower seeds as several top seeds made it into the Elite 8 but couldn’t knock off the #1 seeds.  Every #1 made the Final 4.  PHHHHHTTTT!!!!

2007:  1 Seeds:  Florida, Kansas, Ohio State, UNC

1 Seeds that didn’t make the Sweet 16:  NONE – All made Sweet 16!!!

Final Four:  M1:  Florida  W2:  UCLA  E2:  Georgetown  S1:  Ohio State

Champion:  Florida over Ohio State

Comment:  Okay, this is really starting to look like a bad exercise.  Two #1 seeds make it to the final game. 

2006   1 Seeds:  Dook, Memphis, Villanova, U-Conn

1 Seeds that made the Sweet 16:  All

Final Four:  AT4:  LSU  OA2:  UCLA  MI3:  Florida  WA11:  George Mason

Champion:  Florida over UCLA

Comment:  This is where the NCAA finally stopped with the “Atlanta Region” or “Washington Region” and went back to the old fashioned identifiers.  And Long live the 11 Seed and George Mason!  This season had an upstart 4 Seed get all the way to the Final 4 with LSU dominating teams until they played UCLA.  And finally, there are NO 1 SEEDS in this Final 4!  A 2, 3 and 4 seed rounded out the field after George Mason with most of the 1 seeds losing in the Sweet 16 of elite 8.

2005  1 Seeds:  Illinois (Yes – the last time they were relevant in basketball), UNC, Washington (????),  Dook

1 Seeds that made the Sweet 16:  ALL

Final 4:  CH1:  Illinois  AL4:  Louisville  SY1:  North Carolina  AU5:  Sparty

Champion:  UNC over Illinois

Comment:  Once again, the 1 seeds made impressive runs, but upstarts Louisville as a 4 seed and Sparty as a 5 made the Final 4. 

2004   1 Seeds:  St. Joseph’s, Kentucky, Dook, Stanford

#1 Seeds in the Sweet 16:  Dook, St. Joseph’s

Final Four:  ER2:  Okie State  SL3:  Georgia Tech  AT1:  Dook  PH2:  U-Conn

Champion:  U-Conn over GT

Comment:  The year where 1 seeds dropped like flies in the first weekend.  For anyone that picked it right, it was sweet as you were probably collecting your winnings prior to the Elite 8 completing.  And again, we see that the eventual champion is a 2 seed. 

So, what does it all mean?

1 Seed Champions in the last 10 years:  7

2 Seed Champions: 1

3 Seed Champions: 2

Better yet, what is the “composition” of the Final 4 based on Seeding?

1 Seeds:  14

2 Seeds:  9

3 Seeds:  4

4 Seeds:  6

5 Seeds: 3

6 Seeds:  0

7 Seeds:  0

8 Seeds:  1

9 Seeds: 1

10 Seeds: 0

11 Seeds: 2!!!! VCU and George Mason

Above 11 Seed:  0

What’s interesting:  1 Seeds represent less than HALF of the last 40 Final 4 TEAMS!  If you have more than two 1 Seeds in your bracket, you better know something!  Of course, in years where there’s an overly obvious 1 Seed, I think it’s easier to take that team and another 1 Seed.  This year…not so much.

And, using the last 10 years as an example, if you can’t be a 1 seed, the next best seed to be is a 2 Seed followed by a 4 Seed (but NO NCAA CHAMPIONS from the 4 spot!), and then finally the 3.  In fact, I’ve made the argument in the past that due to “conference” toughness and tough in conference opponents, the better teams often end up as 3 or 4 seeds with the 2 Seeds getting that nod only because the committee doesn’t want “conference match-ups” occurring too soon in the brackets and moves unworthy teams up in the seeding.  And, finally, if there’s an 11 Seed you’re in love with…Ride ‘em DEEP! (Can anyone say Nebraska???)

Also, based on the up and down “wave” we’ve seen with respect to 1 Seeds making or not making the FF, this might be the season/tournament where the upset plays a big role in who makes the Final 4.  Could this be one of those “boring” years in the tournament?  Time will tell…

Bracket Science

If you haven’t heeded my advice and read a few of Pete’s Blog entries at “Bracket Science”,(see the link above) I will do you a favor and reproduce a couple of his more pertinent items here.  One of the ones I really love is this:  The Championship Criteria.  Pete has more or less figured out 8 critical factors that every (REPEAT – EVERY) National Champion in the last 13 years has had in the modern 64 team era.  So, while all the top seeds are obviously in here, seeing this information may help you make that final determination on who is going to be in your FF (final four) and you overall championship pick.

 

(HT:  Bracket Science)

Also, another chart that I absolutely love is this one:  Tourney Advance Rates By Seed.  If you’re considering whether or not to take that 13-4 upset, you can get a better idea by looking at this chart and making an informed decision. 

So, what's interesting?  When in doubt on the coin flip in the 8-9 match-up, pick the 9!  What's also interesting is that a 10 seed is only a 3-2 dog vs. a 7 seed...not that big of a surprise, but should help out with the 7-10 picks.  The high second round success of the high sees #10 and #12 is also interesting - meaning that if you're going to tempt fate in Round 1....Well, you might as well go ahead and ride them into Round 2.  5 Seeds, by nature of the success of the 12 Seeds, don't fare as well in Round 1, and even if they make Round 2, their success wanes...I'm not sure how far I would take any particular 5 Seed no matter what they looked like early.  It would need to be a compelling argument. 

Again, Bracket Science has a wealth of information and analysis and Pete will provide (for a fee, of course!) what a PASE (That’s Performance Against Seeded Expectation) bracket for the 2014 NCAA’s once it comes out on Sunday. 

It’s getting exciting!