FMQ Week #8 - There IS Life After PSU...Just Call Us "Spoilers - North"

Well, I believe that I’m officially over the emotional part of the loss to PSU, but I’m still not quite sure where this season is going.   If you had a chance to read Tuesday’s post, you are now intimately aware with exactly how awful Michigan is at running on 1^st Down.  Most teams, as noted, given a complete lack of success (at whatever they are trying) simply give up after a certain number of attempts.  That’s called, “SANITY”.  And we all know, the definition of “INSANITY” is:  Keep doing the exact same thing (that isn’t working) and expect different results.

That is Michigan’s offensive game plan in a nutshell.  However, there has been TREMENDOUS Amount of publicity, sports talk, etc on how egg-headed and stubborn Michigan’s offensive play-calling has been.  After reading the post game presser and Monday’s press conference wrap, it sounded a “little” like Fred came around on his way of thinking about the offense, but was still ready to say that the team wasn’t “executing the plays the way they needed to be executed.”  And there’s this from Michael Schofield:
On what it's like to see the run game struggle ... "Well, it's painful, especially in a loss like that. We just have to take what we can from that film and learn as much as we can and improve. We can't let Penn State beat us twice, like coach keeps saying. We have to come out next week ready to go."

Well, as my kids say, “No Dip, Sherlock…Tell me something I don’t know…”  You guys have said that you’ve had a great week of practice every week and are ready to go…I’m not buying it at this point. 

What I need to hear is that Fred and Barney are going to change the playbook around to fit the talent vs. playing an offense that will NEVER FUNCTION the way you want it to with the players you have.  In fact, if we don’t see something different against Indiana…Well, it’s beyond stubborn and just plain stupid.  And that will lead me to not only question whether or not Barney will be here in a year’s time…But I will also need to figure out whether or not Fred is a keeper as well.  Yeah, he’s recruiting the crap out of Michigan and the country…but if you’re not going to use the Ferrari talent you have and try to drive what you do have like a three on the tree pick-up truck…well, we may have no choice but to run Fred out of Slate Quarry and Bedrock entirely…..

And another thing completely unrelated but somewhat questionable in a way:  What’s with the Figgie line that ESPN and others are putting on the field???  Don’t get me wrong, I like graphics.  But, has it been there all season and have I just missed it?  I noticed it a lot on Saturday and I don’t think I like it….I equate it to the female belly button.   If you’ve made it that far…well… you already have “two first downs” in your hands at least and you should really keep going.  As a fan I would rather not know that “I’m close to a score” and it’ll send the exact type of wrong mental vibes to a conservative coach that doesn’t need any more thoughts of slowing down.  He needs to hear fans thinking, “SCORE NOW!  GO DEEP!”  and stuff like that….

Just sayin’…..

FMQ

There’s value this week and we might be taking a few more than we’re laying in…I received an e-mail asking me about my “system”.  While I do refer to it as a system, it’s objective and subjective array of information that helps me figure out which way to bet the game and how much to bet.  In short:

Money Management:

-Odd games bet, whenever possible, but I’ve been relaxing that rule recently in favor or a larger spread in betting units.
-No more than 30% of total bankroll in play

Determining who to bet and number of units.

Start with a neutral bet of 4 units. (Never bet 2 units unless in parlay, so fewest number of units bet in game is 3)

No more than 7 units of action on any one game

What is record of each team ATS (Against The Spread)?

1.     Favor team that has better ATS record.  If record excellent, then add extra unit to bet
2.    Who is home?  Favor home team, especially if a revenge game.  But only for ½ to 3 points or so.  I don’t think Vegas values this nearly enough…
3.    PF/PA Ratios for Favorite and Dog.  IF the PF/PA ratios added together and divided by 2 is larger than 1.5, add a unit. 2 units if the ratio is over 2.  See the math below to get a better idea of what I’m doing here.  Again, it’s not an indicator for who will win, but it gives me additional confidence to bet the max units…..
4.    What are the states of mind of the teams playing?
5.    Who’s the coach?  Are they merciless?  Is the team full speed only?  Basketball on grass?  Hoke ball?

6.    Make the bet.

So, looking at the first game this week:

Bama (-28) @ Arkansas:  Bama is rolling…Arkansas is reeeeeling under Beliema…add all the fancy math-work in from above and you have an easy bet laying $70…

PF ratio:  Bama PF233:Ark PF 98=2.37!     PA Ratio:    ARK PA - 158/Bama - 68 = 2.32! 

Bama 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. Arkansas

Take Bama and lay the 28 for $70

USC @ domers (-3):  I really can’t remember the last time this game mattered and I was actually “excited” to watch it.  I guess it’s more interesting now that Orgeron is the head coach and maybe he can orchestrate an upset….but I’m not sure I want to bet on it with only a 3 point differential to work with…PASS

WSU @ Oregon (-37):  I hope everyone is starting to see how this works.  Based on the system, we already KNOW that Oregon is wicked strong ATS (7-0 last 7) But WSU is 5-2 ATS in the last 7, which isn’t too shabby, either.  So, let’s assume that we’re going to lay the points. 

PF:  341 (that’s sick, by the way, Duckys):209 = 1.63    PA:  177:83:  2.13  (WOW!)

Here’s why, so far anyway, I think the Ducks are WAY underrated.  They have held their opponents to 83 points and hung 341 points back on them.  The PF/PA ratio is hugely in favor of laying the points and maxing the units.  However, let’s look at the HTH matchup over the last 5 or so games….WSU is a surprising 4-1 vs. OREGON ATS!  So, what do we do with this nugget of info?

With Leach in his first year and having never been to Autzen , I just can’t go against the Quackers, but I’m not going to max the units as the Ducks are more than likely going to let me down at some point.
Take the Ducks and lay the 37 for $60

LSU (-7) @ Ole Miss:  This one is a little tougher.  I like the Hatter – always have.  I think Ole Miss is slightly overmatched in this one on both sides of the ball.  But what does the math tell us here?  I see BOTH teams are quite good against the number:  LSU 4-2-1 and  Ole Miss 6-2…Not a lot to make me lean one way or the other there…what about the math?

PF Ratio:  253:174 = 1.45    PA Ratio:    154: 167 = 0.922. 

Okay, this is where this ratio comes in handy.   I think this game is still worthy of a $40 bet on LSU as they are outscoring Ole Miss quite handily, but PA is a no tell, and LSU’s DEFENSE sucked early in the season and has improved dramatically since Georgia.  And there’s no way I can put more action on it based on the above.  But is it worth the $40?

Ole Miss is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings against LSU!!!!  Wow….That’s impressive.  Still, knock $10 off because I simply can’t bet Ole Miss here even though the trend over the last 11 meetings says I should. 

Take LSU and lay the 8 for $30

Gators @ Mizzou (-3):  This game is interesting…Mizzou QB hurt but the Gators lost another piece of their offense now that their Tailback is out for the season.  Mizzou is hungry and will be looking to win at home and take control of the SEC east.  The PF’s and PA are kind of throw aways for this game. It happens when the guy responsible for all the PF’s for Mizzou goes out with a shoulder injury.  Still, I like Mizzou at home here if for no other reason than Mizzou wants to prove to the SEC that A&M isn’t the only “real deal” to come out of the Big 12.

Take Mizzou and lay the 3 for $30

UCLA (+5) @ Stanford:  Everyone knows I like to ride Stanford, but the numbers and trends may surprise in this game.  I was actually leaning towards UCLA and the points here, so let’s draw it up that way. 

PF:  229:217 = 1.05     PA:  133:91 = 1.46

I’m leery of the PF ratio even though UCLA has the favorable PA ratio, I’m not inclined to bet anymore units, but have a sneaky feeling the 5 point spread is going to be in the realm of possibility. 

UCLA is currently 5-0 ATS…That I LIKE.  Stanford has been a disappointing 2-4 ATS….That, if I’m leaning UCLA I like, too.  So, even though I think the Cardinal has their backs against the proverbial wall, they win a close one and UCLA covers. 

Take UCLA and the 5 for $40

Indiana (-9) @ Michigan:  Once you see the data for this game, you’ll know why so many gamers simply don’t bet Michigan.  There’s no trend in the last 9 games for Michigan meaning that they are around 0.500 ATS and they are “up and down”  with no more than a 1 game trend in either direction.  Indiana is the same.  I would “lean” towards Michigan at Home here, but I’m not ready to go there just yet.   Let’s look at the math (assuming we’re betting Michigan):

PF:  234:250  = 0.936   PA:     197:140 = 1.407

Yikes…..This is telling me that with a ratio below 1 I should really be looking at taking Indiana and the points here.   Michigan is scoring less points than IU and they are giving up fewer…but not enough to move the needle and the defense isn’t “OWNING” games…So now what?  I’m certainly not betting the $40.  We’re down to $30.  But which way?  Michigan may be up-down meaning they should have a big “up week” at home after the disaster in Happy Valley….what else?

Michigan is 6-0 in the last 6 against IU and 3-3 ATS.  It’s a coin flip…So, I’ll

Take Michigan and lay the 9 for $30

Starting Bank:         $1,323.50

Total Bet:                  $260

BANK:                       $1063.50

This Will Make You Sick On A Tuesday...

I started to look up some stats for the last game against PSU and to be honest, I was getting a little overwhelmed.  Than, last night, I decided to peruse mgoblog.com to see if anyone had done some analysis already.  As usual, they have an army of guys that can do research, are good at it, and who's only goal in life is to look at Michigan's results and figure out what's going on.  What I'm about to share with you (in highlights) is enough to make you puke on a Tuesday morning...and I was almost physically ill on Saturday after thinking I could have called an oh so much better game and put together an even better game plan.... so I now know that it wasn't just my mind working overtime.

Miami (NTM), UMass, FIU, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Wake Forest, Oregon State…Michigan

What do these teams have in common?
These are the 8 teams that have averaged less than 2 yards per carry from their running backs on first down at least 2 different times this season. This is not a good list to be on. Miami (OH) has done it three times and has fired their coach. You know what is different between the fired Don Treadwell and the Michigan offense. When it wasn’t working they stopped doing it. Against Marshall, Central Michigan and Kentucky they averaged between 1 and 1.7 YPC from their running backs on first down. They gave them the ball 14 times total in those three games.
Against Michigan’s two best opponents, Notre Dame and Penn State, Michigan has averaged 1.7 yards per carry from it’s running backs on first down. Michigan has run the ball 35 times on first down. No other team has called more than 26 running back carries in games with under 2 YPA.
What is Michigan getting for their sacrifice?
Michigan is ranked 41st in bonus yards, my measure of big plays. It’s not a bad number but it doesn't indicate a massive advantage. Michigan’s average third down is 7.6 yards. They haven’t had a single game better than 7 yards to go on average for third down. 95 teams average less than 7 yards to go on third down for the season. 95 teams average third down is better than Michigan’s best game average. Michigan hasn’t even been that great at converting third downs once you account for their horrendous third down to go distance (-3%, 108th out 125).

Michigan is getting no discernable advantage from the first down runs.
This has to stop. It’s at the point of absurd. The funny thing is when I initially pulled the numbers, this was Michigan’s second best 1st down day on the ground (a measly 4 and change per attempt) on the season but that was all driven by Devin Gardner.

Obviously he can’t take every carry but the playcalling has to dramatically change. Michigan is among some of the worst overall teams in the country when their running backs run the ball on first down, they are the only teams that keeps doing it.

IF it's not clear at this point that we an offensive coaching staff trying to stuff square pegs in round holes, maybe this will help (again, mgoblog.com)

Any individual play can be blamed on a player. Any structural issue in the first couple years can be attached to the previous coach. But there's a breaking point at which it becomes clear that something is deeply wrong with the guys in charge, and this Penn State game was the offensive equivalent of watching Matt McGloin shred a clueless JT Floyd and company in 2010.

I went back into Michigan's statistics archive, which goes back to 1949, and pulled out the top 200 running back games in that database in terms of carries (the max allowed). The sample ranges from 51 to 23, and here's the bottom of it in YPC:

Name	Att	Net Yd	Yd/Att	TD	Lng	Season	Opponent
Ron Johnson	33	84	2.5	2		1968	Minnesota
Don Moorhead	25	57	2.3	0		1969	Michigan State
Anthony Thomas	29	60	2.1	0	8	2000	Ohio State
Jamie Morris	27	52	1.9	1	7	1987	Iowa
Fitzgerald Toussaint	27	27	1	0	12	2013	Penn State

We're talking about the worst game from a tailback in the history of the program here, and nothing about it was actually Toussaint's fault. This is Greg Robinson level output. The only faith you can have in the offensive coaching is that two to four times a year they will come out with a gameplan so clueless that you spend four quarters telling yourself that you won't send that BORGERG tweet out. It's time to break the seal.

 

There are ways to work around the personnel limitations Michigan has, but they are not the ones Michigan wants to run. They want to be a rough and tumble Stanford offense; they spend large chunks of games with one wide receiver and three guys vaguely inclined towards blocking, and they've spent almost a month of precious practice time installing an unbalanced formation that resulted in the above table as soon as an opponent saw it on tape. This has been a miscalculation as bad as believing Russell Bellomy was ready to back up the oft-injured Denard Robinson, with results exactly like the second half of last year's Nebraska game.

 

This is nothing like what Rodriguez did on offense because there was no offense in which Stephen Threet, Nick Sheridan, seven scholarship OL, and a parade of freshmen at wide receiver would be effective. It is instead exactly like what he did on defense: faithlessly pretend to fit personnel to scheme early, ditch that at the first sign of trouble, shoehorn players into roles they are not fit for, make alarmingly large mid-season changes, and get the minimum possible out of available talent.

 

Michigan is 117th in tackles for loss allowed, giving up eight per game.  No offensive line is bad enough to pave the way for 27 yards on 27 carries, because teams running for one god damn yard an attempt stop doing it.

 

There are problems up and down the team that I can list if you like. Devin Gardner has Miley Cyrus-level ball security. Taylor Lewan went out. Rich Rodriguez didn't recruit any offensive linemen. Brendan Gibbons should be able to make a 33-yard field goal in the dead center of the field. Yes, all of these things. Granted. At some point, though, you zoom out from the micro issues that can be explained away and you get this:

1. Michigan 14, MSU 28: 250 yards of offense
2. Michigan 16, Iowa 24: 323 yards of offense, 166 50 minutes into the game when M went into hurry-up shotgun throwing
3. Michigan 23, Virginia Tech 20 (OT): 184 yards of offense
4. Michigan 6, ND 13: 299 yards of offense and 5 INTs
5. Michigan 9, Nebraska 23: 188 yards of offense and 3 INTs
6. Michigan 21, Ohio State 26: 279 yards of offense and 4 TOs
7. Michigan 28, UConn 24: 284 yards of offense and 3 TOs
8. Penn State 43, Michigan 40 (4OT): 389 yards of offense in 19 opportunities, zero OT TDs, 3 TO, worst rushing performance ever by a Michigan tailback

If you are so inclined you can add games against Alabama and MSU last year plus the 2011 Notre Dame game to the pile; I certainly don't think anything about UTL was to Borges's credit.

There have been some brilliant games over the last three years, but we're one upcoming debacle away from having a third straight year in which a quarter of Michigan's games feature offensive performances that are (almost) impossible to win with. Some of those could be explained away by injury or bad luck or a flood of turnovers from the quarterback, except that the offensive coordinator is also the quarterbacks coach.

After his year three at Michigan found high expectations dashed, John Beilein overhauled his program. Now he's coming off a national title game appearance, on the verge of making Michigan into a top-ten program. Unless there's a major turnaround, Brady Hoke's going to have some hard decisions this offseason.

 

So while Brian goes so far as to call out the firing of Borges, I really don't think its necessary...yet.  BUT IF HE CANNOT SEE that what he's doing isn't working, than by all means, someone has to lead the effort to get rid of Borges and bring someone in that understands conventional offense and what can be done with the talent you currently have.

Disaster...Realized - PsU'd: What a Stinker....

I wasn’t even sure I would be in any type of reasonably sane, emotional sense to pen today’s column due to the fact that while I thought I was “over” Michigan’s loss to the Blue Kitty’s, we all had to live through another horrible exhibition of coaching in the Tiger’s loss to Boston last night…And while I thought Michigan’s loss was the worst thing I could have possibly seen over the weekend where BAD COACHING PLAYED A HUGE ROLE.…Now, I’m not so sure…

 But I digress.

On Saturday night, the emotions were running on the Roller Coaster that I referred to earlier in the season and Michigan just threw everyone right off the track on the highest hill on the ride….meaning:  Michigan fans are now in a free fall and it’s really gonna hurt bad when we land….You know what?  I can’t do this in open form and I think I will dedicate a special

5 Stages of Michigan Slappy Fan Grief – Just for Michigan Fans

1.  Denial and Isolation – I would suggest that we have multiple fans in multiple stages of grief at this point.  I’m certainly in this one as I simply cannot entirely fault the players for the “loss” of the game and I'm in denial that the players are that bad, but I can fault some of the early offensive play and lack of execution on them.  However, those same players, Gardener and Funchess for example, when given the opportunity to go vertical, got Michigan right back in it in the 2nd half…And when that confidence was back (and everyone could feel it) did the coaches roll with it late in the game when the lack of depth on PsU would have made the most difference?  NOOOOOOO……Which also puts the MMQ in the
2. ANGER  - category.  I’m so angry with the head coaching staff and the offensive coordinator at this point that I can’t even begin to express it.  What happened to Coach “Diamond Jim Brady” Hoke that went for it when he was down in UTL “1” with 8 seconds left when me and 109,000 other fans in that stadium figured “Kick the Figgie and go to OT.”  THAT coach went for the kill against the domers with 8 seconds left….If you would have bet me a $1,000 that Mike DeBord (former OC under Carr) was making the offensive calls late in the PsU game I would not have been able to take the bet.  HOW MANY RUNS ON FIRST DOWN DID MICHIGAN CALL THROUGHOUT THE GAME?   How many times did PsU have that call COVERED on defense…Does Gardner not have the ability to audible?  Why not?  He has to see that the call is not going to work….Then, in the 4^th quarter….Michigan has the game under control and 1 score…1 STINKING SCORE – Field Goal or TD with a minute left – puts the game completely out of the question.  However, the call and execution of the punt is so horrible that they don’t pin PsU deep…And the Punt only nets 15 yards…Hell, I would have even taken a Field Goal attempt at that point (I believe it would have been 52 yards?) and at least warmed Gibbons up a little if he missed that one.  I would have even taken a shot at the end zone with Gardener and Funchess on 4^th down and not been unhappy….I HATE GIVING THE BALL TO ANY OFFENSE these days with time on the clock at the end of the game.  I would much rather control the team’s destiny on offense.  That’s where the game was initially lost…the end of regulation.  A Field Goal Attempt or a 4^th down stab at the end zone…What happened to the balls on our Coaching Staff?  In fact, they’ve lost the moniker’s “Head Coach” and “Offensive
   
   
   
   
   
   Coordinator”.   From now on, for no other reason than their incredible likeness to these two cartoon characters, they are simply “Fred and Barney”.  Then, add the conservative debacles and blown opportunities in OT (Which I’m not going to rehash here – we all saw it and re-living it again will only make Monday that much worse) and I’m convinced that Fred and Barney are doing more to mentally damage this team than they are with respect to creating a gun slinging swagger and “You can do it” attitude.  All of that above in an appropriate, short cliche:  When you play not to lose…that’s exactly what happens…I can only hope that Fred and Barney are paying attention.. 
3. Bargaining – Okay – A big part of the MMQ Is in this phase.  And I can explain why.  I let any thoughts of a BCS National Championship go a long time ago…even though I don’t put that out there publicly.  It's out there now....However, I DID want this to be the debut year of Michigan in Indianapolis.  After all, a loyal reader of the MMQ now resides in Indy and there would be a free place to bunk!  All joking aside…it does seem like it’s been awhile since Michigan has been in the B1G Title discussion.  That being said, IF Michigan can SOMEHOW win the B1G at this point (That’s an extra large IF), there’s an off-chance that somehow Michigan actually wins the B1G Championship and would face either Stanford (more likely and easier to swallow) or, God forbid:  GULP! Oregon...  That thought scares the bejesus out of the ole MMQ.  So, I’m in the middle of my bargaining phase of what bowl Michigan could win against which opponent…and right now, the chances in the Rose would be less than 50-50 agains Stanford and much worse given the other potential opponent.
4. Depression – All THAT being said…I really hate the fact that with a couple of gutsy play calls and execution…Michigan would be 6-0.  And while that wouldn’t be a formidable 6-0, it’s still 6-0.  Now, well….The loss is out there to a team Michigan had no business losing to…The pain is real and I can’t ignore that.  But I’m really glad I’m not Gibbons.  That poor kid was sent one too many times to the line with the weight of the season hanging in the balance…Again, coaches should have recognized the pressure and considered that in the OT game plan after the 2^nd MISS…but noooo….his pain now is hopefully, in a weird way their pain and I hope everyone is learning…
5. Acceptance – And the Ole MMQ is also down here…Early on I accepted that there was going to be a big adjustment/drop-off and losing D-Rob is showing us that Michigan has still not completely adjusted to whatever this thing is that they are calling an offense.  And Jake Ryan has left a hole on the other side as well.  I’ve also accepted the fact that Fred, for whatever reason, hasn’t figured out that you need to play a little looser on the road and make things happen.  And definitely take advantage of momo when it’s in your favor….

So, that’s where the Michigan Fan Base is at…At least that’s where the MMQ is residing…what about the rest of the collectives?

5 Stages of Slappy Fan Grief

1.  Denial and Isolation –Stanford has probably 40% of its fan-base right here.  Having picked the Cardinal in the final game, I’m also in this area as the Pac12 is a tough conference this year and I don’t think that the champion comes out of that conference without a loss.  However, that being said, it WON’T be Stanford if they have another performance that looks anything like what they did in Utah.  They need to get their act together and figure out how to win out prior to the Championship game.  There’s probably some Husky fans (of the Washington variety) up here still as well having just played the 2 toughest teams in their conference and believing they can win out the rest of the schedule.  Sparty is in denial and wishing they had the domer game back OH SO BAD….They must now actually believe after watching their arch nemesis go down that the B1G Leaders division is theirs to lose….All they have to do is win. 
2. ANGER  - Oh…there’s so many fans that are entering this stage throughout college football that it’s almost too difficult to name them all…but let’s try:  Gatorland, Cardinal, Bulldawgs, Arkansas, Northwestern, Wiscy (even though they won – They’re still ticked about the Arizona State thing), the 4 teams from the SEC NOT in the top 25 poll…which is complete BS by the way.   The Sooners have arrived here BIG TIME with the blow out loss to Texas and it would appear that Mack Brown will survive at least another week until he loses again…But Texas fan is still way down this list….Both Kansas team fan bases are also fit to be tied as they are sitting without a Big 12 victory at this point….
3. Bargaining – I think if you are a smart Georgia fan, a lot of you fall right here.  What looked to be an incredibly promising season with everyone returning for a senior year and having lost to a Great Bama team that was better than this year’s version…well, let’s just say expectations were high.  Now?  Wow…the injury bug has depleted their offense and they must be thinking, “Can we win the SEC East?”  That’s a tall order, but not undoable at this point.  Gatorland is down here as well and figuring a title appearance (with a loss) to whoever comes out of the SEC West would salvage the season….
4. Depression – Just Because:  Michigan Fan is here.  Add to that Georgia slappys with their hopes of a National Title all but gone and Stanford probably is well represented, too. 
5. Acceptance – Anyone that is trying to figure out how to become bowl eligible at this point:  Minnesota, Purdue, multiple others…. 

Idle Thoughts From Saturday

 

-Sparty Indiana are dueling it out…
-What a difference a half makes.  Sparty has found an offense..
-Great
-But they gave up 28 to Indiana….
-I don’t know how to read that since they’re up next for Michigan.
-Even though Michigan has them home where Hoke hasn’t lost…
-And Michigan will probably be undefeated (BAD THOUGHT!)
-LSU is killing Gatorland…On DEFENSE!
-So, where was the LSU defense earlier this season?
-Or Gatorland is just really bad on offense…
-Is Muschamp on the Hot Seat?
-Nah…Too early for him.
-Next big SEC loss will have some scratching their heads.
-WOW – Look at Texas
-The Shorthorns have figured out that they have a defense and special teams…
-Those always help.
-Where did this 5:00 PM start time come from?
-Is that a PsU thing or ESPN thing?
-I guess there’s always kind of a gap between the 3:30 game and the 8:00 PM game and maybe that’s what they’re doing…filling the gap.
-Okay, here we go.
-Get on top of these guys and keep them down.
-GARDNER!  WTF!
-Stop throwing it to the other team!
-Actually, everyone is seeing our bread and butter play on film (the out pass to the flat) and is jumping on it when Gardener hangs it out there….
-That’s called, “Bad Play calling”
-And execution….But don’t put the QB in that spot…
-Can we mix it up a little?
-PsU is obviously gearing up to stop the run..
-Can we go vertical here and keep them honest?
-Jeez….Down to PsU….Are you kidding me?
-All-right.  2^nd Half…Here we go.
-WAY TO GO DEFENSE!
-Gardener to Funchess!  Let’s do that some more….PsU can’t hang with Funchess. 
-That’s OBVIOUS TO ME!  Why isn’t it obvious to the coaches?
-What are we doing here?
-8:24 – Can we please, PLEASE just score here?  PLEASE?
-8:30 – We’re PUNTING?!?!?!?  Why?????  Please not this…
-8:34 – Great…Let them throw down field..
-8:36 – WHY NOT PASS INTERFERE IF YOU’RE JUST GOING TO LET THEM CATCH IT!
-8:40  - OT on the road…There’s a stat for that somewhere…It’s not good for the visiting team…
-8:45 – OKAY…JUST MAKE THIS KICK!  NOOOOOOO!!!!!!  WTF…..



Gibbons - Think of THIS!

-8:50 – YEAH!!!!  Nice fumble PsU!!!  Okay, now, try to score – please!  Gibbons is not having a good "toe" day or he’s thinking of blondes instead of brunettes…that will always screw you up…thinking of blondes, I mean.
-8:54 – Are you kidding me?  You’re not even going to try?  It’s 4^th and INCHES….ARE YOU A MAN OR A MOUSE!??!?!?!?
-8:58 – Gibbons….I feel for you man. The rest of Wolverine Fandom hates you right now…But I get it.  You just don’t have it today.
-9:05 -  Okay, Now do something with this…
-9:09 – Gibbons makes this one…but I have a bad feeling about this…
-9:10 – We need to stop them here on 4^th down.  This is the ball game…Actually, the game was 45 minutes ago at the end of regulation…
-9:12 – B.O'B just beat Diamond Jim Brady at his own game going for it on 4^th down..
-9:16 – I’m spent…And somehow, I feel like they deserved it….

 

The Hot Seat

Brooklyn Decker easily held serve this week and frankly, as a guy that has a thing for blondes, I could easily see her making a strong run in the year’s final balloting.  And yes, there is currently a glitch in the polling system that is only allowing me to add 4 nominees on any poll.  Blogspot is reviewing the issue and is supposed to fix.  Hopefully, that gets resolved soon or I will need to come up with a creative way to add all the Hot Seat Mascots to the list.  This week, I have always liked the quirky rolls this actress seems to play and having seen Dodgeball again just recently (Second to the likes of King Pin, The Big Lebowski and of course Caddyshack) and finding it hard to turn off when it’s on, I figured, why not throw Christine Taylor out there and see what happens?

GONE LIST:  (It’s not the EARLIEST we’ve ever had a gone list….but it’s the earliest “in season” we’ve had a Gone List…)

1.  LANE KIFFIN:  Did you see the interview?  That looks like a coach begging for a job….
2. Paul Pasqualoni:  Probably done with coaching now.
3. Treadwell – Miami (OH).  I’m sure he’s looking…but it’s gonna be tough

Hot Seat Rank

1. Hazell:  I know it’s his first year…but Purdue is really, really bad…
2. Weiss:  Why not?  This week…there’s another reason…..
3. Snyder:  Look out…Grandpa Jokes are going to start flying….
4. Holgorensen:  Moves down a little…but had better find a consistent offense
5. STOOPS:  How do you lose to this guy right below you?
6. Mack Brown:  Definitely falling fast and will be off the list if he keeps winning….
7. Fire Richt Websites I’m sure will be all about it being on Richt to have back-ups ready to go…
8. Mullens – Mississippi State…Still ofer….
9. Brian Kelly:  Just cause…I know he didn’t play…just cause…
10. Shaw:  I know he’s not going anywhere…but losing to Utah is going to make things a little warmmmm in tree city..

FMQ Betting Results:

Sigh….I wonder why I try to look at things like stats at all?  Technically, and we’ll get into that in a minute, a lot of my picks were correct and I had the appropriate amount of units on them based on the PF vs. PA , probability and location of games and revenge factors.   Not to mention the current streak and several games just defied logic…the beauty of college football….It’s unpredictable, that’s for sure.  A lousy $10 to the good…but, hey…I guess a win is still better than a loss.

Missouri (+11) @ Georgia:  This turned out to be the gimme of the day…I wish it was the only game I had bet….Take Mizzou and the 11 points for $40.

WIN!  Bank $76

Stanford (Opend:-3.5  FRIDAY:  -8) @ Utah:  Okay…So the WORLD figured Stanford could easily defeat Utah and the line moved 5 points as a result…I need to respect line movements more and go the other way every now and then…Take Stanford and lay the 8 for $40

LOSE….

Bama (-27) @ Kentucky:  Here’s a winner…Thank god….Take Bama and lay the 27.5 for $70

WIN!  Bank $133

Quack Attack (-13.5) @ Washington:  Here’s another sure thing…My two new favorite teams to bet might be the two that make the title game….Take the Ducks and lay the 14 for $60

WIN!  Bank $114

Nebraska (-24) @ Purdue:  Purdue is so bad…It’s sad in a way…Someone needs to take that program over and do what Tiller did…at least make them respectable…Take the Cornsuckers and lay the 24 for $30

WIN!  Bank $57

Oklahoma (-13.5) @ Texas: Gag….What a colossal gag on so many fronts…the year Stoops should destroy Texas…well, that’s what makes them rivalry games I guess….Nothing to lose on the Texas side Take the Sooners and lay the 14 for $40

LOSE

Baylor (-17) @ K-State:  Baylor…You’re letting me down right when I needed you most…Take Baylor and lay the 17 for $40

LOSE

Michigan (OPENED: -5  FRIDAY:  -2.5) @ PSU:  Crap….This game really sucked in more ways than one…Fred and Barney are not going to get another dime out of me….well, maybe….Take Michigan and lay the 2.5 for $50

LOSE

Starting BANK:       $943.50
TOTAL WIN:            $380

BANK:                       $1,323.50

FMQ Week # 7 - Where Oh Where Did Half The Season Go?

That was a fast first 6 weeks of the ole College Football Season…Even though due to a quirk in the calendar we will actually get 2 extra weeks (when you include the conference play-offs) of college football this year, which is why everyone has two byes.  Yeah, it’s stretched out a little….but after 6 weeks of games and it being the 2^nd Friday in October, I guess it kind of feels like halfway to me…

Couple of things I didn’t get to comment on in Monday’s wrap was how irked I was with the Georgia – Tennessee game.  If you didn’t see it, Tennessee fumbled through the endzone in OT, negating any chance to score and by rule, put the ball on the 20.  What an incredible flip-flop of fortunes and it got me to thinking about what would be “fair” here.  When you fumble in the end zone and it goes out of bounds, the opposing team gets the ball by rule on a touchback to their 20 yard line and they have to drive 80 yards to score a TD or however many yards to kick a field goal.  In OT, Georgia got the ball in “gimme” range of the Figgie after the fumble and it was a no brainer what was going to happen next. 

In OT, the rule sucks.  I’m not advocating that Georgia should have got the ball back on the opposing 20, but there needs to be something that doesn’t penalize the team that’s about the score not only the loss of possession, but more or less handing the opposing team the win without the defense being given a chance….maybe possession at the 50?  Does that make sense?  Yeah, you lose the ball, but at least the other team still has to move it about 20-25 yards to get into any kind of scoring range.  Otherwise, it seems like too big of a penalty…..If I was on the receiving end of it, great.  But if I am the team fumbling…well…That sucked for Tennessee.

Another issue that has bothered me and it’s going to continue to manifest itself or get to the point where is so ubiquitous that the NCAA and schools are going to have to do something about it:  Jadaveon Clowney sitting on his own.  If you haven’t heard, he benched himself last week due to “sore ribs” right before game time.  Usually, that’s a doctor’s call and the team has a whole lot more time to prepare in a particular player’s absence if said player can’t go.  In this case, it sounded a lot like Clowney just figured, “I’m not 100% and I don’t want to go out there and get hurt anymore.”  Which, if I’m Clowney, I kind of get and I don’t have a huge issue with that.  If he think he’s less able than the guy behind him to give everything the team needs, fine.  And He’s more than established himself in the eyes of his future employers, regardless of whatever some of these idiots are coming out and saying. (Which, if you ask me are a “BUNCH” of NFL GM’s trying to throw Red Herrings out to everyone else to show they “aren’t interested in a 280 lbs, 6’7” quitting slacker”….Yeah, Right!)  So, the question is, how long will it take before other “stars” begin to see what happens to the likes of Georgia’s Marshall when they go down and figure, “Hey, I know what my draft and NFL prospects are and I’m not about to go out on that field and screw up my chances.”  My guess:  It starts to happen a lot sooner rather than later and a lot more often, especially in the high contact/high probability of injury positions.  So, Mr. AD’s across the country that soundly rejected the APU’s concerns…what are you gonna do then?  Will you please come to the table and discuss solutions that somehow protect the livelihood of these individuals while letting them play without fear of losing everything?  Of course, you will need to leave the NCAA out of it all, somehow.  Otherwise…this is going to get worse and cannot possibly end well….

I know I will get a lot of e-mail questioning the “integrity” or the “Character” of Clowney…Hey, I get that, too.  But at the same time, you have to be able to see both sides in this deal.  And if you’re a projected 1^st round or #1 pick?  Well….there ought to be some sort of protection.  Maybe, and I’m just spit ballin’ outside the box here:   Why not have the NFL write these guys an insurance policy in the event they get hurt?  There’s mock draft boards all over the place and it should be easy to figure out who’s where and what their “expected” value is in the NFL for their initial season.  Insure them for that amount on September 1 and go out and play you junior year butt off without worry.  That would at least offer them some protection….Isn’t that simple enough?

FMQ

Ho-kay…There’s picks galore that I “like” this week, but nothing much that really jumps out at me and says, “You need to bet this game the full 7 units…hard!”  So, with that being said, I’m going to look at additional match-ups and spread myself a little thinner this week….but still keep in line with about 30% of our total bankroll in action.

Missouri (+11) @ Georgia:  This line opened at 11 and has since move down, but when I saw it, well, I liked it immediately.  I don’t think Gurley is going to play and while Aaron Murray can definitely carry the load….Missouri is no pushover this year.  The Dawgs have been playing like they’re hanging on and I see a little value in the Tigers.

Take Mizzou and the 11 points for $40.

IU (+10) @ Sparty:  Indiana is a tale of two teams.  They give up tons of yards and then they are able to light up the scoreboard with three TD’s in a matter of 3 minutes….That was last week at PSU.  Does that make them good enough to hang with Sparty in East Lansing?  AS much as I want to take the Hoosiers and the points here…I can’t.   But I don’t trust Sparty, either…PASS

Stanford (Opend:-3.5  FRIDAY:  -8) @ Utah:  I should have jumped on the 3.5…..How come no one is talking about Kyle Wittingham for the USC and Texas (soon to be) vacancies?  He seems like the up and comer that could help either one of those programs.  Even though Stanford let me down last week against the Huskies… I don’t think they do it two weeks in a row…..

Take Stanford and lay the 8 for $40

Bama (-27) @ Kentucky:  Okay.  There’s a gimme on the board.  Look for Bama to possibly cover this spread in the 1^st half and then simply hang on in the 2^nd…

Take Bama and lay the 27.5 for $70

Quack Attack (-13.5) @ Washington:  If you watched the Husky-Cardinal game last week, I think you saw a hugely emotional game go against Washington in the end on what may or may not have been a bad call.  It did look like an incomplete pass to me…But that means that it’ll be tough for the Huskies to get up again this week….even with the help of their home crowd against a hated rival…And the Quack Attack has not let me down this year ATS….

Take the Ducks and lay the 14 for $60

Nebraska (-24) @ Purdue:  Do you know who Purdue has played closer than anyone when they’ve lost to this year?  The domers….But I don’t see them hanging with what looks to be a quietly revived Cornsucker squad seeking B1G respect….

Take the Cornsuckers and lay the 24 for $30

Oklahoma (-13.5) @ Texas: “The Red River Shoot-Out!”  Well, if this is Mack Brown’s do or die game…I hate to almost say what I think the outcome is going to be.  I know all the clichés in a rivalry game…but sooner or later, the talent comes out.  And Brown has lost this game SPECTACULARLY in the past….

Take the Sooners and lay the 14 for $40

Baylor (-17) @ K-State:  Wait…What?  This spread is only 17?  I mean, I know it’s last year’s Big 12 Champions playing at home…but this K-State team lost to the BIZON!!!  So, is Baylor for real or does Vegas know something we don’t?

Take Baylor and lay the 17 for $40

Michigan (OPENED: -5  FRIDAY:  -2.5) @ PSU:  I was frankly surprised when I saw this spread and figured it would be double digits that Michigan had to lay...  I know we lost BADLY down in Happy Valley during the “DarkRod” years, but prior to that, Michigan was 5-1 in their house...  And normally, it was a DOMINATING win when we did win.  And the line movement?  Someone is betting the Blue Kittys HEAVY….. But Michigan is not intimidated by the White Outs or any of the other Happy Valley Horse hooey that the Blue Kitties can throw at them.  I’ll be happy to take the other side of whoever is making the line move here…

Take Michigan and lay the 2.5 for $50

 Starting Bank:         $1,313.50

Total Bet:                  $370

BANK:                       $943.50