Au Revoir, Gopher!

This somehow seems appropriate this AM….

 

(HT:  mgoblog.com)

And while the Mighty Gopher has once again been defeated, you can’t help but wonder as a Michigan Fan, where and what we’re left with.

1.  Michigan looked much improved in their running game and offensive line play in general.  But was that because of an inept D-line and less than stellar defense for Minnesota or did the two weeks of work really pay off?
2. Gardener’s decision were MUCH better and he even showed some glimpses of what we saw at the end of last year and to a certain extent earlier this year in the domer game….But again, was that two weeks of practice or the Gopher Hole of a defense that Michigan was playing?
3. Gardener also showed that he threw behind a lot of his receivers and it makes me wonder if he’s still not suffering from a small lack of confidence..and can that get better over the next couple of games?
4. Funchess seems to have returned to the Michigan Offense…At WIDE RECEIVER no less!  He didn’t seem to be playing in the Tight End spot very often…but is that good (that he’s catching passes again) or bad (He’s not blocking anymore?)
5. In the 1^st quarter, the 3^rd worst offense in the league was able to put together a 10 minute, 16 play 75 yard scoring drive led by a frosh QB against what was supposed to be Michigan’s strength, the Defense….What’s up with that?
6. The kicking game wasn’t terrible, but kicking out of bounds on any kick-off gets you a mediocre grade...and is that fixable?
7. Minnesota was playing either very motivated or somewhat de-motivated with their head coach sitting at home recuperating from yet another game day seizure…But which was it?  Inspiration and a fired up Gopher team or a team worried about their all-around good guy coach?
8. On the bright side, Michigan did not turn the ball over at ALL…So, where has that been all year and was that part of the two week off fix?  And look at the good things that happen when you don’t turn the ball over…
9. Where does this leave Michigan sitting at 5-0?  We should all be happy and elated, but instead we’re left to wonder when and how it might end….

I hate to sound so down about a victory and in a way I’m not…Michigan keeps the Jug and that’s a big deal!  I know it doesn’t seem like it, but the Jug represents a lot of history – 100 years to be exact.   While history is history and the focus of the collegiate game has shifted on a national level to teams from the SEC, Pac12 and other areas…..It’s still the Jug.

 

 

So, where is Michigan?  On a scale of 1-10, I would right now put them at around 6.5-7 out of 10.  Meaning:  If they were playing an equally ranked team, Michigan would beat that team about 6 to 7 times out of 10.  IF they were playing a team in the top 5, Michigan’s chances drop dramatically.  Probably in the 2-3 range.  They still aren’t there yet, but I do think (and want to believe) that they are improving on the margins.  And they have two more opportunities for improvement before the real test comes in November in East Lansing.  And those Jolly Green Giants seem to be clicking along on all 8 when it comes to defense and now they seemed to have finally discovered an offense…against the #2 defense in the league down in Iowa City.  So, they got that going for them….which is nice…

I’m not dismissing PSU and IU at this point.  They will be good games and they will be tough.  But if Michigan loses one of those….lights out and don’t let me near a computer for at least 48 hours.  But, where is everyone else in the Fan Spectrum better known as the….

5 Stages of Slappy Fan Grief

1.  Denial and Isolation – Domer and Sparty, for the most part, are back up in this area.  With big wins in what were supposed to be tight games, they can each look at the remaining schedule and easily see how they can be close to double digit victories with the opponents they have left.  However, 1 game does not a season make.  The domers WOULD have lost to the ASU team that played USC last week.  And I’m guessing that Iowa looked and played Minnesota a little better than what they showed Sparty on Saturday.  You can add half of the Georgia fan base to this list.  While Tennessee is improving, if you’re a Dawg fan, you can’t deny that your Defense didn’t do its job very well on Saturday.  I’m going to drop a few ohio fans in here as well…They all saw on Saturday that they don’t have a defense….and that some bad calls saved their collective butts…but the slappies will never see it that way. 
2. ANGER  - Some sparties are hanging around in the anger area and I ran into a couple on Saturday and Sunday.  Frustrated that Dantonio made the stupid decision at the end of the Domer game to pull Cook and still bitching about pass interference calls.  Some South Carolina fans are here as well with Clowney pulling the crap he’s pulling down in Gamecock land…NWU Kitty Kats are here as well after what happened in the 2^nd half of their game against ohio…How can you dump a 10 point lead at home to the suckeyes when you’ve got them right where you want them?  And that 4^th down spot shouldn’t have mattered…but the refs still blew it….Tennessee fan is also here en masse as they fight the number 6 team in the country to OT only to lose in the most frustrating way possible…fumbling the first possession through the end zone for a touchback….The Cremeiscle fans were not happy….Throw some Ole Miss fans in here for good measure after losing to Auburn….There are some Texas fans that have bounced back up into the Anger phase out of depression simply because Thursday night’s near debacle at ISU was as close to an embarrassment as losing to K-state is in the 40 Acres….But a majority of Texas fans are still
3. Bargaining – You can also add a whole lot of Georgia Bulldawgs and some domers here.  Season ending injuries plagued both those teams with the loss of some very key players.  Add some Gamecocks with the Clowney issues and fans are just hoping for New Year’s day at this point….Unfortunately, the Gophers hopes of having anything to do with the B1G championship went down in flames Saturday, but they could still play the role of spoiler to someone….Speaking of Spoilers
4. Depression – Put the collective Spoiler fan base here.  I don’t know how you can root for a college football team that is playing as bad as Purdon’t is right now…Terrapins immediately jump down to this level due to the fact that they had finally broke into the top 25 only to go down to Tallahassee and have 63 unanswered hung on them with aplomb…And Jimbo Fisher was happy to do it and get the style points to boot.  Did you hear that noise?  That was Gatorland sucking in it’s breath upon hearing that another ACC school they have to play is getting better and some of the Gators are in the depression mode as well….Not to mention WVU ‘neers are finding that there’s not enough hooch in all of West Virginia to ease their pain…
5. Acceptance – Kansas has moved to this phase of grief and the fire Charlie Weiss websites have popped up. 

Idle Thoughts From Saturday

-Sparty looking like they actually know how to move a football offensively.
-Look-out:  Iowa is moving it with the little out passes…
-Sparty needs to cover the outside or its going to be a long day….
-Sparty adjusts…and Iowa doesn’t…
-Ferentz has to be getting frustrated…
-And the fans are getting impatient….
-Look for Kirk to “think” about one of the big openings?
-You couldn’t see Ferentz at Texas?
-Really?  I could….Not predicting it….just saying it could happen.
-Jerry Kill didn’t even make trip to Ann Arbor…
-Seizures….That’s gotta be tough…
-And he beat cancer, also…Did you know that?
-Makes you wonder what he could accomplish without the distractions…
-Hey – look at that..Michigan is running the ball effectively!
-And by that I mean they are getting 4 to 5 yards on 1^st down…
-Whooda’ thunk it two weeks ago…
-Defense gets a quick TO..I like to see that.
-Can we get a stop here please?
-Jeez…How long has this drive lasted?
-And why aren’t we blitzing more?
-Finally, we’re blitzing…but it took till the 2^nd half…
-What is the spread here again?
-What was the FMQ thinking? 
-And that theme will repeat itself a lot in the ole noggin this Saturday…
-Injury bug hitting a lot of teams and big name players…
-Georgia beat Tennessee…but it was costly…
-Marshall gone for the season…ACL
-domers lost two with broken legs…
-Oklahoma, others losing guys also…
-ohio down early… I like that. 
-But the Purple Kitties need to hang on.
-Last I knew, they didn’t know how to put their foot on their opponents neck..
-Go for the kill….
-Come on Colter…He got it!
-Wait…no?  Is that the spot….really?
-Domers looking good on offense…despite Rees…
-And they look really good on Defense…
-But I’m not sure that ASU is as fired up this week as they were last week…
-FMQ should have realized that…..Idiot….
-Washington hanging tough with the Cardinal…
-This one also closer than the experts thought….
-Wow…crappy way to end that game. 
-Replay is good and bad….
-But what else is new?  Frustrating they just can’t get it right….

The Hot Seat

Irina Shayk holds serve and will be in the Hot Seat Mascot finals!  With the largest vote to date, also!  Glad to see the collective is out their voting and making it count!  This week’s mascot stays in the SI Swimsuit Theme and I do wanna thank SI for that Okie State story…I hadn’t really poked around on their website too much in the past…but golly, I may have to add a link based on what you can find out there with respect to swimsuits alone!  What a display!  And the Hot Seat Mascot for Week #6 is:  Brooklyn Decker!  I was going to save Brooklyn for later…but I figured I’d keep the SI models together….maybe that was wrong..but I could get used to looking at Brooklyn…I wonder if she goes by “Brook?”

GONE LIST: 

 

1.  LANE KIFFIN:  And this is bad because he doesn’t have the BS personality you need to do TV. In fact, he doesn’t have any personality…at least not one anyone can locate.  Now that USC has shown the world how to do it, it kind of makes you wonder who’ll be next….
2. Paul Pasqualoni:  I’m surprised UConn made this move when they made it….seems like they could have waited…but maybe they are worried their guy will be gone if they didn’t act now…
3. Treadwell – Miami (OH).  With the big boys firing coaches early, I didn’t think it would take long to trickle down to the FBS mid majors….Once a guy is ineffective (or has a bad season), it’s over….

Hot Seat Rank

1. Mack Brown:  Didn’t move himself out of the 1 seat after the debacle in Ames when he needed the ref’s help to win the game…
2. Holgorensen:  Blanked to Maryland…who was just blanked by Miami…then BEAT Okie State…and then get embarrassed by Baylor…not looking too good for Dana….
3. Hazell:  I know it’s his first year…but Purdue is really, really bad…
4. Gundy:   Again…needed until the last few minutes to pull his fat out of the fryer…It’s warming up at Okie State…
5. Weiss:  Why not?  This week…there’s a reason…..
6. Ferentz:  He’s not threat to be fired, just a hot seat….Losing to Sparty at home makes that happen....
7. Fire Richt Websites will be buzzing because he let half his squad get injured…like that’s his fault…
8. Mullens – Mississippi State…When was the last time he won a big game?
9. Spurrier:  Not saying he’s getting canned or anything..but not being able to keep Clowney in check will not reflect well on him at all….

FMQ Betting Results:

Crap….That’s really all I can say here.  Seems like everything was going according to plan and now we get a setback week.  I should have thought a little harder about a couple of these bets, but now that we’re in conference…well, spreads can be a little tougher to cover…..I have to remember it’s a marathon, not a sprint and we’re going to be a little more diligent next week.

Washington @ Stanford (-7):  Take Stanford and lay the 7 for $70…OOPS….I just figured that Stanford in revenge mode at Home would be too much for the Huskies….And while the Cardinal won…they covered…

LOSE…

WVU @ Baylor (-28):  Take Baylor and lay the 28 for $40  Baylor comes through…should have played this one as a favorite..

WON!  Bank $76

ASU (-5) @ Domers (Neutral Site Game - Dallas):  Take ASU and lay the 5 for $60  Should have thought about this game and what was at stake for the domers not to mention the inevitable let down of beating USC and getting the coach canned…

LOSE…

Ducks (-38) @ Colorado:  Take the Quack Attack and lay the 38 for $60  At least the Ducks are still managing to get it done against the spread…

WIN!  Bank $114

Maryland (+15) @ FSU:  ..Take Maryland and the 15 for $40 Was this possibly the worst whiff on the board this week?  Year?  I think so….

LOSE…

Louisville (-34) @ Temple:  Take Louisville and lay the 34 for $70   Another whiff and miss….but I have a feeling Charlie took his foot off the pedal in this game…

LOSE….

Sparty @ Iowa (-1.5):  O/U – 42:  Take the 42 - UNDER for $40   And this was a squeaker….right to the end…

WIN!  Bank $76

Minnesota @ Michigan (-19.5):  Take Michigan and lay the 19.5 for $40  Thanks for that last second pick 6 that made this game look like more of a blowout than it was…

WIN!  Bank $76

PARLAY!

Stanford – Ducks - Louisville  $20 - LOSE

Starting BANK:       $971.50
TOTAL WIN:            $342

BANK:                       $1,313.50

FMQ - Who's It Gonna Be USC? Fire Mack Brown Now....

If that’s what is making the refs make these calls….In case you haven’t heard or seen it, there was a completely abominable call last night in the last minute of the ISU-Texas game.  Long story short:  Texas clearly fumbled (even the announcers stated that it was a fumble) and the referees didn’t call it correctly NOR DID THEY OVERTURN IT ON REPLAY!  The whistle had not yet been blown meaning it was still a live play and nothing on the player had touched the ground….BAD CALL.  If that’s how you keep Mack Brown in a job….Fire his ass now so kids aren’t getting screwed with calls like this… I completely agree with ISU Coach Paul Rhodes and I hope they start a collection to pay his fine for bitching about the call because the call was BS…..Here it is if you haven’t seen it.

In other news…Pat Haden has before him the most important decision he will make in his tenure at USC, and the reason it’s the most important is that he’s already made the 2^nd most important decision by firing Lane Kiffin.  (Quiet, B-ball fans…I know he fired and hired a new coach for the B-ball team as well…You know – he hired Amanda Marcum’s husband.  But let’s face facts:  This is a bigger deal!)

In addition, someone besides DeLoss Dodds may have to eventually deal with the head coaching vacancy that will be left at Texas once whatever happens there happens…Whether Mack is fired or retires seems to be a moot point.  It’s going to happen one way or the other (eventually) and someone is going to need to fill that spot.  Will it be the last act of Dodds or will Dodds’ replacement get the nod if Mack can somehow hang on that long (end of 2014?).  My guess is, once Mack is gone the last official act of Dodds will be to hire his replacement and not all the pressure is put on the new guy and if the new AD needs to fire said replacement.  Just the way I’m seeing it.

That still leaves two of the biggest coaching jobs in the country up for grabs (not to mention U-Conn and probably more, lower profile jobs) to whatever up and coming coach has the desire to pursue those positions.  But my thinking is beginning to trend opposite of what it used to be.  I used to think that any coach would jump at the chance to improve their lot in life and take a more prestigious, higher paying gig.  It just seems like the natural progression.  But when you look at some of the more recent FAILS in the “coach leaving for the greener grass” (Rodriguez – Petrino – Graham – Willingham - Chizik), well, I’m sure it has a lot of coaches rethinking their decision if the dream job suddenly landed at their doorstep.

But if you’re a good coach at your alma mater (Fitzgerald ) or you simply like the deal you’ve got (Petersen), why leave?  And I get that.  You could end up being a 3 years and out statistic looking for a job and getting stuck in a worse situation completely.  Or you could be out of coaching altogether.  I think the high profile position is one that needs to go to someone that is approaching the “twilight” of their career.  Not someone over the hill (Pasqualoni) but someone that has reached an age where they have 5-10 good years left and if it doesn’t work out, the TV booth is right there waiting for them and they have some great stories to tell having been the head coach at an iconic institution.

That doesn’t make the AD’s job at USC and Texas any easier.  In fact, it might make it harder.  How many guys did Sailboat Bill go through before Rodrigues said yes?  I think both of these AD’s might just find out how hard a “high profile” coaching job is to fill.

Sparty UPDATE – Rumor is running rampant that Narduzzi (Sparty D-coordinator) is the top name on U-Conn’s list of interviewees when the time comes.  Just a heads up. 

FMQ

After a great week last week where all the favorite picks came home and we even hit the parlay, I’m feeling pretty full of myself, quite confident and am looking forward to several of this week’s games and the opportunity that lies within.  While I don’t see any Sooner-domer type gifts, I think there’s some easy money to be made.

Washington @ Stanford (-7):  I get that the Huskies are decent.  But this spread screams value at me when I see the Cardinal only laying 7 at home.  Cardinal are still undefeated this season ATS, so, who am I to buck that trend?  Yeah, I know it’s probably going to throw me sooner or later…let’s hope later…

Take Stanford and lay the 7 for $70

WVU @ Baylor (-28):  I firmly believe that WVU’s victory last week after seeing some highlights and seeing how poorly Okie State played was a complete fluke.  Baylor has not had a single game all season with less than 600 yards of offense.   In Waco for the first time…WVU fails….

Take Baylor and lay the 28 for $40

ohio(-6) @ NWU:  Man…I was really hoping for a double digit spread here and I would have been all over the Purple Kitty’s like white on rice.  I still think the upset is possible…I just didn’t want VEGAS to think it was possible…This spread is just screaming at me to take the suckeyes…Miller looks fine and I’m fairly certain that the suckeyes beat the 2^nd best team in the B1G last week in Wiscy….So, it’s either lay the points or PASS….

ASU (-5) @ Domers (Neutral Site Game - Dallas):  The domers get beat BAD at home and the Sun Devils come off a huge victory over USC and they have mo-mo running in their favor.  A neutral site game that favors ASU (it’s a lot closer to them) and I still don’t think Rees has stopped throwing INT’s…I think Graham might still be pissed at the domers from his short stint at Pitt…

Take ASU and lay the 5 for $60

Ducks (-38) @ Colorado:  I know what you’re thinking –leading rusher for the Ducks is in a boot and won’t play this week.  You know how many points the line moved on that news?  ZERO…..Something tells me the Ducks have the depth at tailback and against Colorado, it’s not going to matter..

Take the Quack Attack and lay the 38 for $60

Maryland (+15) @ FSU:  Wow….This is the team that blanked WVU and is playing pretty well vs. the team that was down to BOSTON COLLEGE 21-3 before they got their act together….I want to jump all over Maryland here, but something keeps telling me that FSU is a ticking time bomb just waiting to go off on someone…still…two TD’s in one of the last ACC match-ups these two teams will play see seems like enough..

Take Maryland and the 15 for $40

Louisville (-34) @ Temple:  Remember when I said there wasn’t a gift on the board this week?  I lied….

Take Louisville and lay the 34 for $70

Sparty @ Iowa (-1.5):  O/U – 42:  Okay.  Sparty cannot in any way, shape or form score 21 points on any defense in the B1G with the exception of maybe Purdon’t...No "offense" Sparty...I think you all actually all agree with this... Iowa WON’T be able to score that much on Sparty.  Could this be the first 0-0 tie in regulation in the B1G for the first time since who knows when?  Maybe…

Take the 42 - UNDER for $40

Minnesota @ Michigan (-19.5):  Jeez…I hate 3 TD spreads and said I would never bet them again when Michigan was involved…nope-nope-nope…..But, Michigan did get a bye week to figure some stuff out – big changes on the O-Line…That makes me happy and nervous at the same time…They’re home…and the Gophers just came off a horrendous loss to Iowa, who’s actually looking pretty good despite that NIU loss early in the season…..Why do I do this to myself?

Take Michigan and lay the 19.5 for $40

PARLAY!
Stanford – Ducks - Louisville  $20

Starting Bank:         $1,411.50

Total Bet:                  $440

BANK:                       $971.50

Tuesday Math

I’ve posted on a couple of Tuesdays this season in order to comment on everything that’s going on in CFB…I know that it’s hard for me to get the MMQ out on Mondays and this gives me a chance to digest and comment further on stuff going on in college football or Michigan in particular.

Today, if you that don’t like math or the rehashing of prior issues covered, you can stop reading now.  If you do, I’m going to try and shed a little light on Michigan’s offensive woes that may or may not make sense to you, but they make sense to me. 

For those that don’t know me, I have a hobby.  Poker.  I’ve been playing since I was in single digit age around the kitchen table but didn’t take the endeavor up seriously until I made my first trip to Vegas when I was 24.  Then, I couldn’t stop thinking about the game and all those probability and statistic courses I took in college really started coming in handy.  Believe it or not, math and how it relates to poker and football are somewhat parallel, especially when it comes to the execution of plays on offense.

Here’s the thing:  As poker has evolved from Fixed Limit to No Limit, good players have had to make adjustments in their game.  In Fixed Limit, calling with a set to a rivered straight or flush board at the end of the hand only cost you an additional big bet on a pot that was laying you say, 10 or 15 to 1, made sense and was correct.  No Limit, on the other hand, presents a completely different equation.  In No Limit, when the rivered flush or straight shows up and an opponent moves all in with his remaining stack, well, that call may now represent odds of only 3 or 4 to 1.  Meaning:  YOU HAVE TO BE RIGHT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TIME IN NO LIMIT when you make that call.  In Fixed Limit, you make the call, bitch about the other guy getting lucky, and move on.  If you make the call and your opponent was bluffing, that’s a huge payout that makes all of the other incorrect decisions okay.  In No Limit, when you make 2 incorrect decisions, your expectation for success goes negative.  So, in the end when you’re playing no limit…you better be right.

What if anything, does that have to do with offense in football at any level?  Years ago, the top tier college offenses played a lot like Fixed Limit poker. In other words, they simply ground out there game plan: Here’s our offense.  Here’s what we’re going to run.  You try and stop us.  And that worked because even though the defense would gear up to stop exactly what the offense was bringing, after 10 or 15 attempts, the better offense with better athletes would eventually get the defense to make a mistake and break a big one.   Or simply grind the opposing defense down.

Switch to today’s game.  Defenses you encounter on a week in-week-out basis are better as are the coaches coaching them.  So simply lining up and stating that we’re going to beat you man on man doesn’t work.  O-coordinators have to see what the defense is trying to stop, call the right play for that defense and then the offense has to execute that play to PERFECTION.

In other words, the O-coordinator could be doing his job perfectly.  Let’s give him a 100% on play calling.  Now, the offense gets the play call.  It’s a zone read option and the following things have to happen:  The line needs to play assignment football and block all of their positions correctly.  The QB needs to read what the line backers and safeties are doing and determine whether or not he wants to give the tailback the ball, tuck it and run it himself, or find the open receiver that the safeties are letting get open.  And everyone needs to execute the hand-off and run/pass and catch to perfection.  So, when you look at it mathematically, let’s put some variables on all those events and say that:

A – Play calling:  We hopefully have good plays for any given defense.

B– Line Execution =  This probability goes down when you have a younger offensive line that is still developing

C – QB decisions =  This can vary depending on the QB and the game/season he’s having.  I think it goes up with confidence, also, and good decisions beget good decisions and vice-versa.  Bad decisions lead to more bad decisions.

D.  Final Exectuion =  This is a result of combining all aspects of what can happen on any fundamental football basic:  Handing the ball off, hitting the correct gap that is being opened up, or passing and catching the ball, and not fumbling.

Now, anyone who’s studied probabilities knows that the outcome of an event or events with multiple probabilities is those probabilities multiplied for any given event.

When you look at the final equation:

Successful Play = Play Calling X Line Execution X QB Decisions X Overall Execution 

Or

SP = A x B x C x D

So, let’s give those events some example numbers of what we think the current status of the offense is:

Play calling:  100% (I know, this might be a little generous in some of your eyes, but bear with me – hopefully in a minute you’ll see where this is going)

Line Execution:  90%  (Same thing…Just hang in there a little longer)

QB Decisions:  80% (I know, DG hasn’t made a right decision all season in some of your eyes)

Overall Execution:  80% (I know…Turnovers, INT’s, etc…..Hang on….)

SP = 100% X 90% X 80% X80% = 1 X 0.9 X 0.8 X 0.8=

57% success rate.  This figure I’m sure a lot of you will agree with. It could be even lower….and probably is.

Even with what appears to be pretty good probabilities for each individual execution can look awfully bad when everything is said and done at the end of any given play.  To make it even more simple, let’s say EVERYONE but the offensive line does their job and the offensive line screws up 50% of the time:

SP = 100 x 50 x 100 x 100 = 50% success.  Which isn’t bad, but what if this is the success rate on critical downs?

HOWEVER, everything I just listed above is actually not that simple and here’s where it can get tricky:  There is a SEQUENCE of these probabilities that MUST HAPPEN IN ORDER for any given play to have success.  In other words, we cannot look at the 2^nd probability until the first event occurs, and so on. 

Therefore, play calling is absolutely critical followed by line execution, followed by QB decision making followed by final play execution.

If the early event is low probability, it impacts the outcome WORSE than everything else combined. 

So, if you’re not calling the correct plays and your probability of the called play being correct is 60%, then:

SP = 60% x 100% x 100% x100% = 60%  success rate.  And this gets worse if you’re players aren’t executing properly.  Which is why play calling is so critical in any game.  Followed by line execution which I think is where most of Michigan’s problems lie….but not all of them.  

So where’s the similarity to poker and why care?

Before, when you were “grinding” out plays in a running offense, the success rate didn’t have to be that high.  In today’s “No Limit” offense vs. defense environment, everybody has to do their job right and do it well.  Plain and simple.  Because now you are looking at 3 and 4 to 1 odds on any given play vs. a 15 to 1 grind it out “Breakaway” where the opposing defense screws up.  I’m not saying big plays don’t happen, I’m just saying its different now.

After re-watching parts of the Michigan U-Conn game again, I tried to figure out where things were going wrong.  In summary:  It wasn’t all on Devin.  Nor was it all on the offensive line.  Or the running backs.  And it wasn’t on the offensive coordinator calling the wrong play – but that may be a bigger part of it than what I had previously posted. 

It was proportionally on ALL of them, but you can hopefully now see that if any one part of the equation above breaks down…well, it can make for a long afternoon or evening. And it can look really bad when you add it all up….

Just my thoughts….

So how does any of this get better?  Watch what the defenses are taking away.  And then you can determine if we have the right play call going in.  I’m not sure we did at U-Conn as Michigan ran way too much on 1^st down.  And I get that maybe the Michigan coaches we’re trying to do something against U-Conn based on film they saw and that just wasn’t possible.   That is, Michgan tried to revert to a, “Here we come.  Stop us”  mentality on offense.  And U-Conn did just that.  Michigan called 1^st down runs way too often based on what the defense was taking away. 

Add to that some missed assignments and you can say whatever you want about Devin, but he’s suddenly in a world of “probability” hurt where even a high “Correct” decision probability on his part is going to get destroyed by the earlier outcomes. 

Hopefully, the coaches and O-Line have figured all of this out and Michigan comes out looking better on offense against Minnesota…if not…

Well, we’re in for a long season. 

After The Bye.....

So, I hope everyone got a chance to watch some purely objective football over the weekend.  I know I did and I learned a couple of things:

Michigan ABSOLUTLEY needs to win its next three games (Minnesota – PSU – Indiana) in order to eve be considered a contender for the B1G Championship much less any NC hopes, which, I’ve realistically already kissed good-bye, but hey, a guy can dream.

Of Michigan’s last 5 games, I believe a 2-3 record is possible (Wins over Sparty-Iowa), a 3-2 record is probable (Add –Nebraska), a 4-1 record would be great (Add either Kitty Kats or ohio) and a 5-0 record…well, that would be incredible, but I’m not looking that far ahead yet.  Even though I just did…..What’s scary is that based on the last two games…well…..0-5 in the last 5 games is possible, also.  Not to mention what could happen in the next three games….Yikes….

Wisconsin dropped and turned its way over into a loss to the suckeyes and if I was a Wiscy fan,  I would be so angry with my team and its execution that I would be all for my teams' execution.  Thank you Coach McKay.....Talk about a fanbase that has probably dropped from denial/isolation and skipped all the way down to bargaining…

Add Ole Miss to that turnovers galore statistic or else they would have had a puncher’s chance against Bama….

LSU and Georgia may meet again in another BIG GAME later in the year.

The domers….Ahh, the domers(JEEZ I HATE THESE GUYS!).  Tommy Rees has never met a potential turnover he didn’t like.  It was kind of funny…I knew that game was on at 3:30 but forgot to turn it on right away and when I did turn it on, it was alreay 14-0 in the 1^st quarter…I felt kind of like a kid waking up on Christmas morning!

Seems like something else happened to a Maroon and Gold team this weekend…what was it….Oh yeah – Minnesota dumped it’s home B1G opener in terrible fashion to Iowa…Meaning Michigan better be ready.

Was that all that happened?  Oh yeah..The Ducks rolled.  Texas A&M beat the Razorbbacks….

Seems like I’m missing something….

WAIT!  I’ve GOT IT!  Lane Kiffin is the first head coaching casualty of the young football season! 

That one was kind of hard to believe and when it popped up on the screen yesterday, I flipped around and Fox Sports, which had ABSOLUTLEY NOTHING ELSE TO TELEVISE on Sunday, broke in live to the press conference where Pat Haden was making some remarks.  Talk about your unceremonious DUMPING of a head coach..And the decision was made in the 3rdquarter and of course..Lane was the last guy to find out.  Lane was not allowed on team bus at the airport where the driver was told to head back to USC…Pat didn’t come right out and say it, but he implied that Kiffin “begged” to keep his job….Wow.  I guess that “I’m behind my coach 100%” comment is good….Until it ISN’T!

Let’s face it:  Kiffin was in way over his head and in many ways was a dolt…From Inflate Gate to managing the media, or rather, no attempt at all in managing the media, he was a loose cannon and an idiot…a combination that never works in any endeavor except for maybe kamikaze pilot.  But even they had to hit the ship.  In some small way, I feel bad for Kiffin.  Like 1% of me….It’s not like he had some guarantee, at least not one that’s been made public.  Wuzzles got the ax and was good on salary for the next 10 years.  In fact, I still think he’s collecting a domer pay check.  Kiffin, on the other hand, somehow stumbled into a good thing at Oakland, parlayed that into a head coaching gig with the Vols where he alienated everyone, and then bolted for a very shaky situation at USC.  If he had established himself as a proven commodity, well, that would have been one thing.  But  to go there without any kind of track record and face a 30 scholarship reduction….All I can say is you better have a couple of locks in the ole contract before you make that move.  And Kiffin challenged everyone from the AD to the training table cook and more or less pissed off the World of Troy…Not smart.  Especially after Haden showed up.  But, at the same time:  Why now?  If Pat Haden knew he didn’t like Kiffin and all these things were sitting there simmering…why wait till the season starts?  Why not the end of last season?  Was he thinking “Get through the NCAA penalty phase?”  I mean, it’s clear now why Haden went to the NCAA to ask for lenience.  He could sell that aspect to a new hire.  But when he got shot down?  Not so much…So, who wants to jump into that mess now?  Haden has a big problem on his hands and wants to bring a class act in…And it is a mess with the scholarships, locker room discontent, etc….

Speculation on replacements:  The blogs are abuzz and former player Jack Del Rio is the name everyone is throwing around….While I don’t think the pro to college thing works all that well, there’s one market it’s okay to try it in:  Los Angeles.  Mora is making it work at UCLA and Carrol made it work at USC.  City environment on the ocean and it recruits itself.  An X and O’s guy can make it there…Just not sure if I was Pat Haden I’d go that route – which is why I’m not Pat Haden…But I think Pat sees the differences in the college and pro game and wants someone that the program can hold up as an example of doing it the right way. 

The other names in the ring:  Peterson (When ISN’T his name out there) and Franklin at Vandy.  That last one makes some sense and don’t be surprised if that’s the way it goes….

Add Paul Pasqualoni from UCONN and that’s two Head Coaches that have made the gone list already this year…..Sad….

5 Stages of Slappy Fan Grief

1.  Denial and Isolation – ¼ of the domer fan base is still up here in the denial and isolation stage.  They now have some friends and I would say that there’s a ¼ of the LSU fan base that has fallen into this area due ot the fact that they don’t have a defense like the LSU defenses of old…but they have a QB.  The LSU loss wasn’t tragic which would have taken them down to Anger.  Just disheartening.  But LSU needs a better defense similar to what they used to have in the Bayou….
2. ANGER  - There’s a WHOLE LIST of fan bases in here that you can either empathize or sympathize with.  Starting in no particular order:  Trojans, Cheeseheads, Razorbacks, Gophers, domers, Okie State Cowboys and Gamecocks….The Cocks and Cowboys had the most miserable performances of the weekend…even when you look at the pile the domers dumped on their fans at home.  The Cocks won at UCF, but they shouldn’t have and the cowboys…jeez….somehow that Okie State team manages to LOSE AS A DOUBLE DIGIT FAVORITE EVERY SEASON to someone that they have no business losing to…and that fan base is ticked off this AM….
3. Bargaining – The majority of the Trojans and domers are in this phase.  The Trojans just lost their head coach, and while many are celebrating, now the collective is looking at the schedule and talking about a “successful season if we could just beat X”.  And one of those big X’s is the domers….and the domer collective is thinking the same thing.  Who’s season can we ruing by beating “X” and that will make our season.  Unfortunately, the domes already lost one of those games to Michigan leaving only 1 or 2 left.  But the bargaining in those fan camps has begun. 
4. Depression – Trojans, Texas, Wiscy, domers.  I can make an argument for a lot of fan bases down in this section, but it’s only the truly slappys that think their team has a shot at an NC every year.  But Wiscy is more or less out of the B1G race with the suckeyes loss and all they can be is spoilers….Which, before the calendar even says October is a tough way to live a college football fan existence.
5. Acceptance – U-Conn remains….Arizona is probably sitting here as well…..and maybe a couple of in the know Trojans or two now that the coach is gone….

Idle Thoughts From Saturday

-Okay…some football for a change without an emotional connection..

-Well, maybe a couple of connections of teams I hate and love to see lose..
-Game Day crowd in Athens seemed a little subdued…
-For an SEC crowd, I mean….
-Usually those fan bases are completely off the reservation.
-The Fargo crowd last week looked livelier..
-LSU-Georgia setting up to be a slobber knocker…
-Laters up on the domers by two TD’s???
-What’s going on?
-Oh…Tommy Rees up to his usual tricks..
-Quick – What color purple is Kelly’s face?
-Hee-hee….I wish I could have seen his reaction…
-I love to see certain guys lose it…
-Just cause they lose it so well….
-Okay – I see an 8-5 season for the Domers coming…
-Their fan base did NOT see them losing until October…..
-Meaning:  Same old Domers
-That should knock them out of the top 25…
-And all will be right with the world!
-Hawkeyes – Gophers getting embarrassing for Kill…
-Jeez, I hope he upped his meds.
-Georgia-LSU is really back and forth.  I wonder what the Over/Under on this game was?
-FMQ needs to keep that in mind the way the SEC teams are lighting up scoreboards now…
-Wiscy…What are you doing?
-Stop turning the ball over..
-Ole Miss:  The same goes for you! 
-Score for pete’s sake…
-Saban looks more rattled on the sideline this year than he usually does..
-He’ll probably retire in Crimson…
-Just can’t see him doing it all over again…
-But if Kirby Smart gets an offer…well, what’s to stop him?
-Wiscy!  Would you guys hang on to the damn ball!
-Oh well, I guess it will be the suckeyes….Unless the Purple Kittys bring it to Columbus…
-But that’s a tall order.
-There’s a lot of Wolverine and Northwestern fans in Madison right now…
-USC is getting killed…And I thought the defense was supposed to be the Trojan STRENGTH this year…
-Trojans…how far the once mighty have fallen…
-Makes you think if anything comes out of Agent Gate, maybe Saban would leave and avoid a loss of scholarships.
-But that’s crazy….

The Hot Seat

Kate Upton finished the week out strong in the Hot Seat Mascot Voting!  Wow, it wasn’t unanimous, but it was close.  So, five finalists in the running and without further ado, I will introduce the Hot Seat Mascot for Week # 5:  SI swimsuit model Irina Shayk! 

 

GONE LIST:  (It’s not the EARLIEST we’ve ever had a gone list….but it’s the earliest “in season” we’ve had a Gone List…)

1.  LANE KIFFIN:  And this is bad because he doesn’t have the BS personality you need to do TV. In fact, he doesn’t have any personality…at least not one anyone can locate.  Now that USC has shown the world how to do it, it kind of makes you wonder who’ll be next….
2. Paul Pasqualoni:  I’m surprised UConn made this move when they made it….seems like they could have waited…but maybe they are worried their guy will be gone if they didn’t act now…

Hot Seat Rank

1. Mack Brown:  Has to be nervous as all media eyes can now move off the coach they love to hate (Kiffin) and look at Mack….
2. Brian Kelly:  He’s no threat to be fired, just a hot seat….And he’s angry at Rees, of course….
3. Gundy:   When you lose a double digit game to an inferior opponent, well, the fan base is going to let you have it….
4. Holgorensen:  But he just won?  And his fan base is screaming because they got blanked by Maryland and then beat the #10 team in the country…what gives?
5. Weiss:  Why not? 
6.  Hazell:  I know it’s his first year…but Purdue is really, really bad…
7. Rodriguez:  I’m sure his shtick is getting old in Arizona and getting hosed by the Huskies isn’t going to help…
8. Fisher:  Again, no threat of getting canned, but he had better wake up FSU’s defense…Clemson will walk all over them….

FMQ Betting Results:

I love it when a best bet weekend comes together!  However….You know,  there are certain teams I simply should not bet.  Michigan and Okie State are on the list...Okay, I know I have to bet Michigan....maybe I will get it right at some point.  And I’ll add others as they come along.  But I’m not going to complain too much when we get a weekend that gets us closer to our overall goal. 

Cal Bears @ Oregon (-36): Take the Ducks and lay the 36 for $60

It was a squeaker, but the Ducks cover by 2!

WIN!  Bank $114

Sanford (-10) @ WSU:  Take Stanford and lay the 10 for $60.  Another Squeaker, but I will take it!

WIN!  Bank $114

Wiscy (+8) @ ohio:  A Take Wiscy and the 8 for $60.  ANOTHER 1 point squeaker for the FMQ, but a win is a win!

WIN!  Bank $114

Oklahoma (-3.5) @ the domers:  Take Oklahoma and lay the 3.5 for $40..This was like taking candy from a baby…

WIN!  Bank $76

Ole Miss (+17) @ Bama:  Take Ole Miss and the 17 for $40

LOSE……

LSU (+3) @ Georgia:  Take LSU and the 3 for $40

PUSH….Which means…LOSE…..

Okie Sate (-19) @ WVU: I hate Okie State……Take Okie State and lay the 19 for $40
LOSE……

PARLAY!      

Ducks – Cardinal – Wiscy - $10

WIN!  Bank $60

Starting BANK:       $933.50
TOTAL WIN:            $478

BANK:                       $1,411.50

APU Thoughts and We're in Full Conference Swing

Tuesday Follow-Up:  I posted Tuesday about the NCAA reducing the penalty at PSU a mere 14 months after the famous Emmert speech where he stated that “There will be NO reduction in the penalties and if there had been a Death Penalty, I would have exercised it.”  I was part of the outcry then.  Now, US Senator George Mitchell jumped into the fray after reviewing the ongoing restructuring and management at PSU and told the NCAA, “Look:  PSU is doing a great job managing this issue internally and via the legal system.  You need to review the penalty that you handed down and do what’s best.”  I think Emmert, like any of us, would take a Senator’s counsel seriously and “do what’s best.”  However, I will never agree with the Group Think and the dangerous gut reaction to this issue that led the NCAA down the path they went in the first place.  Public outcry and the Torch and Pitchfork mentality is the reason you need SOUND LEADERSHIP and a voice of reason in these situations.  Emmert could have been that guy, but instead piled on the bandwagon and simply wanted to erase football at PSU in a demonstration of power. 

Wrong move Mark Emmert….

Another potential land mine that universities and the NCAA alike are going to need to deal with sooner rather than later is the APU “All Players United” movement.  Players are finally getting their act together and realizing that the product they are responsible for putting on the field, albeit through the organization, branding, and effort of the parent institutions that they are playing for, is worth more to the players because the resulting product is worth a LOT more to the institutions than it’s EVER BEEN in the history of collegiate athletics.  A little quick research revealed that the athletic budget for the University of Michigan in 1975 was less than $4,000,000.  That’s not a typo….$4 million.  In 2000, Michigan’s AD budget was $35,000,000.  Today, Michigan’s 2013 Athletic Budget is $133,000,000, a 4X increase from 13 years ago.  (The BTN alone gives each B1G conference member an annual cash in-flow of $25M and growing)   I’m not saying that student athletes, for the most part, aren’t receiving just reward (education, health care, room & board, etc.) while playing for a university in any sport, and that cost annually at Michigan is somewhere between $75K-$100K for each athlete that’s on scholarship.  I’m saying that the amount of money involved for the Big 6 Power Conferences has never been greater on a relative basis (money per student athlete), and it doesn’t look like that curve is about to tip in the downward direction.  But, instead of coming out and acknowledging that fact, what do a collective of D1 Athletic Directors do instead?  They comeout in unified voice that Pay for Play is not only wrong, but it will NEVER bepart of what is otherwise a highly managed system of integrity…..for the student athletes, of course…by the Universities. 

WRONG MOVE University AD’s!

The statement, if you read it in its entirety, reeks of attitude and can only be described as incredibly self-serving.  Translated:  “Student Athletes:  Knock this crap off right now or we’ll show you!”  I only wonder how long it will take the student athlete collective that generates the income for these institutions (Football/Basketball) to figure this all out and decide that for their future and the future of their kids that may one day become collegiate athletes, “Today we’ll just sit on the field in front of 100K fans and on national TV for 3 or so hours.  We’re not gonna do much…Just sit.  We are going to watch you watching us.  And we are not going to play this game today because while we are benefitting from the education we receive, we are making a whole lot more money for the Universities and we are not seeing a dime of that while we physically take all the career ending risk and at times life threatening risk…And we don’t believe that’s ‘Fair’.”

If there isn’t a public outcry at that point….Well, let’s just say that there WILL be an outcry (That the MMQ will support) and AD’s, presidents and regents across the country will react and this problem will get solved in some way, shape and form once and for all.  Whether its pay for play, additional monthly stipends, accrued deposits that can be collected post graduation, some or all of the above or WHATEVER, the matter will get resolved.

 

FMQ

The first 3^rd of the season is in the books for most teams out there with the exception of some teams that had early byes.  I’m not going to hand out quarter term grades, just glad that some of the harder to watch games are behind us and we are now into the “Elimination” phase of the contenders.

I’ve postulated before that only about 20 teams have a shot at the NC and of those 20, there’s probably only about 10 that have a real chance.  And for 2 of those 10, well, you know how this goes.  The planets have to align and magic has to happen in order to find yourself as one of the last “Highlanders” left in the end…As we all know, there can be only one.

That being said, let’s look at this week’s match-ups!  Again, I like too many games and I’m spreading myself thin…I could/should just load up on the best bets, but I’m leery of those…So, spread it around.

Cal Bears @ Oregon (-36):  Normally, I loath laying this many points…But it’s the Quack Attack and they have not disappointed yet this year against the number. Even though this is a conference opponent that usually plays the Ducks close, who am I to argue with success?

Take the Ducks and lay the 36 for $60

Sanford (-10) @ WSU:  Look – WE ALL KNOW THAT MIKE LEACH CAN COACH.  But one win doesn’t a season make and Stanford is the real deal.  My guess is that Leach still doesn’t have the right personnel on the field to slow down the Cardinal….But it’ll be close.  Even so, I’m happy going with the Trees here and laying the points….

Take Stanford and lay the 10 for $60

Wiscy (+8) @ ohio:  Hmmm…do you realize that the last 2 years this game has been decided in either OT or in the final seconds?  And did you ALSO know that Wiscy was AHEAD of ohio in both of those instances?  Just asking….Do you think Wiscy is really TICKED OFF about that and they want to beat ohio?  Yeah….Me too…

Take Wiscy and the 8 for $60

Oklahoma (-3.5) @ the domers:  When I first saw this spread, I was a little surprised….A little.  I figure it would be more of a pick-em number with the Laters coming into South Bend looking for revenge.  In fact, I recalled that Gholson was the difference in the game last year in Norman…And he’s not on the team this year.  IF the Laters want to re-establish who’s the boss in the Big 12, it should start with this out of conference foe, just to get things rolling in the right direction.

Take Oklahoma and lay the 3.5 for $40

Ole Miss (+17) @ Bama:  I really think Bama’s Achilles Heel this year is their defense.  And we saw some of that when A&M lit them up for 40+.  Now, I believe that Ole Miss has a bettr defense than A&M and that might be the difference. 

Take Ole Miss and the 17 for $40

LSU (+3) @ Georgia:  Georgia is the Michigan of the SEC this year.  Playing down to opponents and the Texas Mean Green was in the game in the middle of the 4^th quarter.  With LSU having a passing game and a defense, well, the Hatter might just run the table in the SEC.  And it’ll have to start in Georgia where he’s getting 3…

Take LSU and the 3 for $40

Okie Sate (-19) @ WVU:  WVU didn’t score ANY points last week against MARYLAND…Let that sink in for a minute.  This is the same West Virginia, well not exactly the same as Geno Smith has left, but the same coaching staff that was rolling up 50-60 points on opponents last year.  Getting blanked while giving up 37 makes me think that Okie State can do the same thing….

Take Okie State and lay the 19 for $40

PARLAY!      
Ducks – Cardinal – Wiscy - $10

Starting Bank:           $1,2,83.50
Total Bet:                   $330

BANK:                        $953.50

NCAA Announces a Reduction in PSU Penalties

Regardless of how you feel about Jerry Sandusky and what happened over a 10-15 year period at Penn State under Joe Pa, I believe the NCAA has righted a terrible wrong by increassing the number of scholarships and scholarship players over the next two years leading up to 2016-2017.  In addition, there may be a lift in the bowl ban as well.

You can read all about it here.

Why the MMQ believes this is the right thing is simple:  The collective now at PSU both in administration, in the coaching staff and on the field had ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH WHAT HAPPENED in what was an atrocity of immeasurable proportions!  Not only that, but you are taking an education away from student athletes which is what the NCAA is supposed to stand for!  The utterly dispicable acts are being accounted for in the only way we currently have as a society, the US legal system.  Whether you like that or not.  It's a legal issue, not an NCAA issue.

I'm not saying the NCAA should not hold PSU accountable.  That the $60M fine wasn't reduced was more than satisfactory to this fan.  In fact, I would have preferred a trade-off of sorts (an increase in the fine) for the increase in scholarships, but I'll take what I can get.  I've never agreed with the penalty of punishing a shool and current players for the sins of players and coaches from the past.  That the University should go unscathed is not what I'm saying at all.  Punish PSU and make it hurt so bad that they will never fall into the same situation they found themselves in with a legendary coach calling all of the shots when it came to his staff.  For that, PSU (the University) should suffer.  But the students, coaches and players in the here and now should be allowed to enjoy the PSU experience to it's full extent. 

I hope that makes sense.

At least PSU will be able to field some semblance of a team in a year or two.....And they will be ready once they are eligible to go to a bowl. 

So, while I agree with this, the MMQ can't help but have some trouble when it comes to the sniff test and the question of, "Why now?" 

Why is this coming when the NCAA is at the crux of what many of the in the know bloggers are saying is a critical point in time for the NCAA?  Meaning that the power schools are ready to hand the NCAA their own set of rules on just about everything and tell the NCAA organization to get lost.  Is this a political move to gain some sort of public support for an institution that realizes that once it loses the power conferences in football that the only true revenue generating event, the NCAA Tournament, probably won't be far behind?  Are they concerned that the beuracracy they operate under is so overwhelming that they cannot get administrators to come to the NCAA Enforcement and Investigation Departments, much less stay in those assignments for any extended period of time?  IS the NCAA coming to the ugly realization that what they stand for, "Amateurism in Athletics" and the "Student Athlete" are a thing of the past? 

I think they are slowly starting to realize it...but like anything else the NCAA does, it will take too long before they react.