Okay. After doing a deep dive review into my spreadsheet from the past couple of seasons and looking at some of the winning weeks vs. losing weeks, the mistake I made this year has been over betting. And I don’t mean the amounts of the wagers, but I have bet on way too many different games, thinking that spreading my risk over multiple games was a solution that was working better.
When in actuality, once the data is compiled, its exactly the opposite of what we should be doing. It took some analysis, but suffice it to say, any time we wagered on only three games (OR 75% of our betting units were focused on three games) we came out ahead for the week. To prove that theory, I’m only going to focus on three games this week and see how this goes.
This Week’s Picks:
Northwestern (-13.5) vs. Indiana: Normally, I would take points here. But the Kitty Kats have really been coming to play and Indiana is just plain awful. I’m taking the sideways Z and laying the points.
Take Northwerstern and lay the 13.5 for $60
Wiscy (+14) @ Nebraska: Okay, Wiscy sucks and there’s a lot of problems on this team. But I don’t think they lose by more than 14 to Nebraska. This is the scariest bet I’m making this week, and I’m taking points.
Take Wiscy and the 14 for $40
Oregon (-28) @ Wazoo: I made the mistake of doubting the Duckies last week. The FMQ NEVER makes the same mistake twice.
Take Oregon and lay the 28 for $60.
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
NWU – WISCY - DUCKS for $10
Starting Bank: $730
Total Bet: $170
Bank: $560
The MMQ
Friday, September 28, 2012
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
Domers Opt Out of Michigan Game
Well, it happened sooner than I expected but that doesn't mean we'll NEVER get the chance to pound on these chicken-!@#$!@#%s again....(JEEZ I HATE THESE GUYS!)
Domers opt out of Michigan Game. Last game to be played in 2014.
While this sucks, I do believe a savy AD can find a few home and home opportunities with some other traditional type schools. The MMQ will continue banging the drum for that Home and Home with Tennessee. I can see the Michigan fleet heading down to Tennessee in my mind's eye and it looks pretty cool.
Anyway, 2014 will be at their house and I hope we can field a team that can win the last two against the Domers for the foreseeable future.
Domers opt out of Michigan Game. Last game to be played in 2014.
While this sucks, I do believe a savy AD can find a few home and home opportunities with some other traditional type schools. The MMQ will continue banging the drum for that Home and Home with Tennessee. I can see the Michigan fleet heading down to Tennessee in my mind's eye and it looks pretty cool.
Anyway, 2014 will be at their house and I hope we can field a team that can win the last two against the Domers for the foreseeable future.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Domered...It's Been Awhile....
Get to healing with the M-Zone….But be warned: It’s not what you think this time…
Sundays and Mondays do suck after losing….Sorry, just have to get that out there. That’s probably why I couldn’t be a sports writer…Too much emotion.
I have penned before about Karma, and how it can find you at any time. Good or bad…And how Michigan, and one player who for the last two years, has stolen games from the Domers for all the evil and hypocritical things they have done in the past. Unfortunately, it would appear, that karma has a sense of irony. For all those games he stole from the Domers in the last seconds, Karma saw to it that there would be an ugly penance for a the storied senior, on HIS BIRTHDAY no less, to pay before he was finished with the Domers.
And what’s very odd is that it was there for the taking. Just play with no mistakes. You think he would have figured it out after the first couple of mental oopsies. But, it seemed to get worse. For Denard and the rest of the offense. A snowball effect of shoddy offensive decisions at the worst possible moment. Bad play calls and even worse execution seemed to be the working theme….
When the number of points you score equals the number of turnovers you have in a game, chances are, you aren’t going to win the game. But you more than likely handed it to the other guy on a silver platter. These aren’t sour grapes, but I frankly don’t even feel that bad after this loss due to the fact that it wasn’t a beat down. The Defense should be regarded as the heroes on Saturday. They held the Domer to less than 240 yards of offense. It was a total failure on Michigan’s offense (Denard’s) to execute. While I can forgive 1 or 2 turnovers and the 1 at the end of that 1st half was desperation, it is unthinkable that in 5 straight pass attempts there were 5 interceptions. I don’t know if that is some kind of Michigan record (has to be) but I’m not going to look it up. Yes, Vincent Smith had one to himself on a play that, again, never should have been called.
What was really sad was that Michigan was in this game in the 4th quarter. After all the gaffs, it was still there for the taking. But, alas, Karma just decided that it wasn’t Denard or Michigan’s day.
The B1G season starts in two weeks so we have to live with the miserable taste of this loss in our mouths for double digit days. This was clearly not what anyone was hoping for last Saturday.
The Rest of the Mess
Sparty – EMU: Apparently, Sparty’s offense is a bit of a mystery this year. I almost took Sparty to cover the spread in this game, but then I figure that its EMU and funny things happened when they show up at Spartan stadium. And sure enough, Sparty need 4 entire quarters to put EMU down, but it was closer than the final score would lead you to believe. I now wish Michigan was playing Sparty in the traditional time frame (early October)
Clemson - FSU: Another team that playe well enough to win, but this game was actually extremely competitive. If Jimbo Fisher figures out how not to lose to someone he shouldn’t, I think the Seminoles have a red carpet walk to the ACC championship.
K-State – Oklahoma: Okay…Another Big12 team we don’t have to talk about anymore…I hate to bash Michigan, but in a competition of pre-season over rankings, I have to believe that the Sooners own the title, with Michigan a close second year in and year out….
LMU- Auburn: Damn Auburn for showing up. Chizik decides to coach them up for this game or has LMU finally kicked enough good players off the team that they are beatable?
Oregon – Arizona: Huh…I really figured Rich Rod and company could trade TD’s with these guys….The Ducks Defense must be better than I thought…Duh…
Idle Thoughts From Saturday
-When I’m not there, I think night games aren’t as cool.
-Too long to wait for the start.
-Looks great under the lights though….
-Maybe because it’s at the Domers?
-Michigan looks confident out of the gate.
-Watched 1st half in a beer tent with a lot of Domer faithful from St. Pats…
-Loved the fact they kept showing a re-cap of last year’s game in the pre-game.
-Kept the Domer fans quiet – sort of….God, they’re an obnoxious group…
-Lots of cheers when Michigan did things right.
-One obnoxious moron felt he had to get back in the MMQ’s face after the first INT…
-Not that I was being that obnoxious…Okay, not more than USUAL…
-Just Domer game obnoxious.
-I left the beer tent at half time.
-Nobody had the courage to call me out and say that I was escaping.
-In fact, I told the crowd that Michigan gets better in the 2nd and there wasn’t anything I saw that COULD NOT BE CORRECTED!
-Just stop throwing the ball to the guys in Gold Helmets.
-That would have been a huge improvement.
-6 turnovers…Really?
-STOP THROWING IT TO THOSE GUYS!
-I mean, I get that big games are going to have turnovers.
-Kids get the jitters. They aren’t pros….
-Best thing heard on the radio: Rich Rod had a Pick-up truck QB that he was trying to drive like a Ferrari…Hoke has a Ferrari QB he’s trying to drive like a pick-up…
-That was actually heard by MMQ’s brother…
-Give credit where credit is due.
-Okay…I am not going to let this get me down for the week…
-Damn…It’s a Bye Week…That means two weeks of reading about how much they sucked…
More Idle Thoughts From the Weekend
-For the Love of Mike: TIGERS! WIN A GAME, wouldtya’?
-Lions had a comeback for the ages and then screwed it up…
-What were they thinking?
-I’m not entirely sure I’m buying the presser comment that they were trying to draw the Titans offsides.
-If it had worked, well, you’re a risk taking genius.
-Since it didn’t, we didn’t really mean to run that play…
The Hot Seat
A TIE last week between Bar and newcomer Alice Eve! Which means, after 4 weeks, there are 4 Hot Seat Mascots that have made the finals...What a race! The Hot Seat Mascot is something that takes up entirely too much of the MMQ’s time. I mean, I have to constantly look at beautiful women and decide whether or not they are Hot Seat Mascot worthy. I know how Hefner must feel…It’s a dirty job but someone has to do it….This week’s mascot was noticed a couple of years ago in Iron Man II by the MMQ and this past summer, she had a major role in The Avengers. Yep, Scarlett Johanson really knows how to wear skin tight leather….And lesser is always better? I forget how that phrase goes...Anyway....
The order is a changing. John L has to be the number one spot at this point….
1. John L Smith – He’s only on a 10 month contract, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they canned him before then…
2. Derek Dooley: Derek needed a W against Florida. He needed it really bad. I’m not sure he survives another season if the Vols don’t make a bowl.
3. Tedford: Only Hot Seat Coach to lose in Week 1!! But I can’t move him above Kelly.
4. Randy Edsall: Maryland is going to start thinking that with the ACC as screwed up as it is, why aren’t we winning more football games?
5. Brett Beilema – Wiscy. His fans have expectations now. 200 yards of total offense are NOT their expectations.
6. Kevin Wilson: But can Indiana really expect much more? Really?
7. Dabo Sweeney: Either find a defense or find a new job….
8. Mark Richt: Just because he will lose some game he’s not supposed to and the annual “Fire Mark Richt” bandwagon will get a spit polish and a coat of paint…
9. Kelly, Brian: I know…I dropped Brian down a long way…Had to. He went 3-0 vs. B1G. That’s huge in Domer land.
10. Tubberville: Yeah, he’ll have a defense, but those people at Texas Tech are used to FIREWORKS!!!!!
11. Frank Spaziani: BC is a proud school that doesn’t get a lot of attention…
12. Mack Brown: I know, I know. But you didn’t think they would fire Joe Pa, either. Believe the MMQ when I say that his retirement or canning is nearer than you think…
13. Bo Pelini – Cornsucker fans expect to beat their non-conference opponents.
The FMQ
All right, this is just getting down right ridiculous. Two of my “lock” picks were totally the wrong way. And Michigan somehow hits the number. How on earth does Vegas know? I mean, they couldn’t have know that Michigan was going to turn the ball over 6 times? Amirite? Anyone? Amirite?
LSU (-18.5) @ Auburn:
Take LSU and lay the 18.5 for $30
LOSE. LMU Gets a wake up call and the FMQ realizes that it’s still the SEC West
Arizona (+24) @ Oregon
Take Arizona and the 24 for $50.
49-0? Really Dick Rod? You’re still screwing me…LOSE
Kansas State (+14) @ Oklahoma:
Take K-State and the 14 for $30
I can’t believe I almost laid off this game.. I should have bet more. WIN Bank $57
Clemson (+14) @ FSU:
Take Clemson and the 14 for $40
Tigers hang tough. Close enough for money, anyway. BANK $76
Michigan (+7) @ Domers:
Take Michigan and the 7 for $60
They couldn’t have put a ½ point teaser on that game early in the week? LOSE
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Michigan – Clemson-Arizona for $20 - LOSE
Starting Bank: $597
Total Win: 133
Bank: $730
I don’t like the way this season’s going…Back to the drawing board.
Early Monday Picks:
Northwestern (-13.5) vs. Indiana
Wiscy (+14) @ Nebraska
Oregon (-28) @ Wazoo
PS: Anyone know how hard it was to write today’s summary without a (JEEZ I HATE THESE GUYS!)…Whew….I feel better.
Sundays and Mondays do suck after losing….Sorry, just have to get that out there. That’s probably why I couldn’t be a sports writer…Too much emotion.
I have penned before about Karma, and how it can find you at any time. Good or bad…And how Michigan, and one player who for the last two years, has stolen games from the Domers for all the evil and hypocritical things they have done in the past. Unfortunately, it would appear, that karma has a sense of irony. For all those games he stole from the Domers in the last seconds, Karma saw to it that there would be an ugly penance for a the storied senior, on HIS BIRTHDAY no less, to pay before he was finished with the Domers.
And what’s very odd is that it was there for the taking. Just play with no mistakes. You think he would have figured it out after the first couple of mental oopsies. But, it seemed to get worse. For Denard and the rest of the offense. A snowball effect of shoddy offensive decisions at the worst possible moment. Bad play calls and even worse execution seemed to be the working theme….
When the number of points you score equals the number of turnovers you have in a game, chances are, you aren’t going to win the game. But you more than likely handed it to the other guy on a silver platter. These aren’t sour grapes, but I frankly don’t even feel that bad after this loss due to the fact that it wasn’t a beat down. The Defense should be regarded as the heroes on Saturday. They held the Domer to less than 240 yards of offense. It was a total failure on Michigan’s offense (Denard’s) to execute. While I can forgive 1 or 2 turnovers and the 1 at the end of that 1st half was desperation, it is unthinkable that in 5 straight pass attempts there were 5 interceptions. I don’t know if that is some kind of Michigan record (has to be) but I’m not going to look it up. Yes, Vincent Smith had one to himself on a play that, again, never should have been called.
What was really sad was that Michigan was in this game in the 4th quarter. After all the gaffs, it was still there for the taking. But, alas, Karma just decided that it wasn’t Denard or Michigan’s day.
The B1G season starts in two weeks so we have to live with the miserable taste of this loss in our mouths for double digit days. This was clearly not what anyone was hoping for last Saturday.
The Rest of the Mess
Sparty – EMU: Apparently, Sparty’s offense is a bit of a mystery this year. I almost took Sparty to cover the spread in this game, but then I figure that its EMU and funny things happened when they show up at Spartan stadium. And sure enough, Sparty need 4 entire quarters to put EMU down, but it was closer than the final score would lead you to believe. I now wish Michigan was playing Sparty in the traditional time frame (early October)
Clemson - FSU: Another team that playe well enough to win, but this game was actually extremely competitive. If Jimbo Fisher figures out how not to lose to someone he shouldn’t, I think the Seminoles have a red carpet walk to the ACC championship.
K-State – Oklahoma: Okay…Another Big12 team we don’t have to talk about anymore…I hate to bash Michigan, but in a competition of pre-season over rankings, I have to believe that the Sooners own the title, with Michigan a close second year in and year out….
LMU- Auburn: Damn Auburn for showing up. Chizik decides to coach them up for this game or has LMU finally kicked enough good players off the team that they are beatable?
Oregon – Arizona: Huh…I really figured Rich Rod and company could trade TD’s with these guys….The Ducks Defense must be better than I thought…Duh…
Idle Thoughts From Saturday
-When I’m not there, I think night games aren’t as cool.
-Too long to wait for the start.
-Looks great under the lights though….
-Maybe because it’s at the Domers?
-Michigan looks confident out of the gate.
-Watched 1st half in a beer tent with a lot of Domer faithful from St. Pats…
-Loved the fact they kept showing a re-cap of last year’s game in the pre-game.
-Kept the Domer fans quiet – sort of….God, they’re an obnoxious group…
-Lots of cheers when Michigan did things right.
-One obnoxious moron felt he had to get back in the MMQ’s face after the first INT…
-Not that I was being that obnoxious…Okay, not more than USUAL…
-Just Domer game obnoxious.
-I left the beer tent at half time.
-Nobody had the courage to call me out and say that I was escaping.
-In fact, I told the crowd that Michigan gets better in the 2nd and there wasn’t anything I saw that COULD NOT BE CORRECTED!
-Just stop throwing the ball to the guys in Gold Helmets.
-That would have been a huge improvement.
-6 turnovers…Really?
-STOP THROWING IT TO THOSE GUYS!
-I mean, I get that big games are going to have turnovers.
-Kids get the jitters. They aren’t pros….
-Best thing heard on the radio: Rich Rod had a Pick-up truck QB that he was trying to drive like a Ferrari…Hoke has a Ferrari QB he’s trying to drive like a pick-up…
-That was actually heard by MMQ’s brother…
-Give credit where credit is due.
-Okay…I am not going to let this get me down for the week…
-Damn…It’s a Bye Week…That means two weeks of reading about how much they sucked…
More Idle Thoughts From the Weekend
-For the Love of Mike: TIGERS! WIN A GAME, wouldtya’?
-Lions had a comeback for the ages and then screwed it up…
-What were they thinking?
-I’m not entirely sure I’m buying the presser comment that they were trying to draw the Titans offsides.
-If it had worked, well, you’re a risk taking genius.
-Since it didn’t, we didn’t really mean to run that play…
The Hot Seat
A TIE last week between Bar and newcomer Alice Eve! Which means, after 4 weeks, there are 4 Hot Seat Mascots that have made the finals...What a race! The Hot Seat Mascot is something that takes up entirely too much of the MMQ’s time. I mean, I have to constantly look at beautiful women and decide whether or not they are Hot Seat Mascot worthy. I know how Hefner must feel…It’s a dirty job but someone has to do it….This week’s mascot was noticed a couple of years ago in Iron Man II by the MMQ and this past summer, she had a major role in The Avengers. Yep, Scarlett Johanson really knows how to wear skin tight leather….And lesser is always better? I forget how that phrase goes...Anyway....
The order is a changing. John L has to be the number one spot at this point….1. John L Smith – He’s only on a 10 month contract, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they canned him before then…
2. Derek Dooley: Derek needed a W against Florida. He needed it really bad. I’m not sure he survives another season if the Vols don’t make a bowl.
3. Tedford: Only Hot Seat Coach to lose in Week 1!! But I can’t move him above Kelly.
4. Randy Edsall: Maryland is going to start thinking that with the ACC as screwed up as it is, why aren’t we winning more football games?
5. Brett Beilema – Wiscy. His fans have expectations now. 200 yards of total offense are NOT their expectations.
6. Kevin Wilson: But can Indiana really expect much more? Really?
7. Dabo Sweeney: Either find a defense or find a new job….
8. Mark Richt: Just because he will lose some game he’s not supposed to and the annual “Fire Mark Richt” bandwagon will get a spit polish and a coat of paint…
9. Kelly, Brian: I know…I dropped Brian down a long way…Had to. He went 3-0 vs. B1G. That’s huge in Domer land.
10. Tubberville: Yeah, he’ll have a defense, but those people at Texas Tech are used to FIREWORKS!!!!!
11. Frank Spaziani: BC is a proud school that doesn’t get a lot of attention…
12. Mack Brown: I know, I know. But you didn’t think they would fire Joe Pa, either. Believe the MMQ when I say that his retirement or canning is nearer than you think…
13. Bo Pelini – Cornsucker fans expect to beat their non-conference opponents.
The FMQ
All right, this is just getting down right ridiculous. Two of my “lock” picks were totally the wrong way. And Michigan somehow hits the number. How on earth does Vegas know? I mean, they couldn’t have know that Michigan was going to turn the ball over 6 times? Amirite? Anyone? Amirite?
LSU (-18.5) @ Auburn:
Take LSU and lay the 18.5 for $30
LOSE. LMU Gets a wake up call and the FMQ realizes that it’s still the SEC West
Arizona (+24) @ Oregon
Take Arizona and the 24 for $50.
49-0? Really Dick Rod? You’re still screwing me…LOSE
Kansas State (+14) @ Oklahoma:
Take K-State and the 14 for $30
I can’t believe I almost laid off this game.. I should have bet more. WIN Bank $57
Clemson (+14) @ FSU:
Take Clemson and the 14 for $40
Tigers hang tough. Close enough for money, anyway. BANK $76
Michigan (+7) @ Domers:
Take Michigan and the 7 for $60
They couldn’t have put a ½ point teaser on that game early in the week? LOSE
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Michigan – Clemson-Arizona for $20 - LOSE
Starting Bank: $597
Total Win: 133
Bank: $730
I don’t like the way this season’s going…Back to the drawing board.
Early Monday Picks:
Northwestern (-13.5) vs. Indiana
Wiscy (+14) @ Nebraska
Oregon (-28) @ Wazoo
PS: Anyone know how hard it was to write today’s summary without a (JEEZ I HATE THESE GUYS!)…Whew….I feel better.
Friday, September 21, 2012
Domer Showdown Friday
Thanks to all who sent the following link and photo of an elaborate prank played on the Domers (JEEZ I HATE THESE GUYS!). It appears to be an after hours covert operation that involved a lot of coordination and speed. The MMQ has few of these type of endeavors under his belt from his high school days…. And while I believe it was in good taste and more or less, “Tells it like it is, DOMERS” you all know that the MMQ likes to do his bragging AFTER the fact, as show here, here, here and HERE…..
I was a little surprised at some of the feedback I received on last Friday’s post. Some took the time to state that the Domers playing 5 ACC games wasn’t that big of a deal considering that two of the teams the Domers had been playing regularly in the BEast are now moving to the ACC (Pitt and Syracuse). While I can’t ARGUE that, the point is that the Domers now have 5 games against members from a conference. So they can be tied into that conferences bowl agreements. Plain and simple, the Domers were getting screwed out of decent (read: Better Paying) post season matchups when they had an 8-5 or better record. $warbuck$ saw that money on the wall and simply made an easy decision that kept a majority of the “Independent” bandwagon drum beating people happy and got him what he wanted: Better late season scheduling and the opportunity to play on New Year’s day with a 3 or 4 loss season.
Full conference alignment won’t happen right away. I would say when the next Domer NBC contract expires will be about the time that ESPN will pony up for the ACC games that have the Domers as an opponent and the deep pockets of ESPN will be no match for NBC. Then, ESPN will dictate, “Well, we need more Domer content.” And the ACC will give a measurable amount to the Domers for a certain period and then it will be over. Domers are in the ACC. It’s kind of like pulling a band aid off real slow. It hurts all the way but in the end, the band aid is off and you start feeling better.
Anyway, enough about that nonsense and on to the more important issue:
The Game.
Michigan holds a 23-15-1 series advantage. This will be only the 40th meeting of these two schools. Shocking, in a way. Kind of like last year’s 24-7 come from behind victory with 28 - count em – 28 4th quarter points scored by the Maize and Blue… I hope Michigan can make it 24 wins tomorrow and let the groaning and pining for “Wait till next year!” cries to begin in South Bend! We’ve stolen 3 in a row and the last 5 out of 6. The odds are against Michigan, but I like their chances.
As for last week’s results, I’m a little gun shy about laying points other than in the most “lock” circumstances. And this week’s picks, with the exception of 1 game, will show that. I wish they had a money line in college football.
This Week’s Picks:
LSU (-18.5) @ Auburn: I have been burnt so much by giving points lately that you’d think I would have learned my lesson by now. Nope. Sometimes, it works! You just have to know which teams to like to cover. And I like Les in an SEC West showdown:
Take LSU and lay the 18.5 for $30
Arizona (+24) @ Oregon: Do I believe in The Rod or don’t I? I believe that Rich Rod did everything he could to win at Michigan. Biggest problem was he didn’t pay nearly enough attention to the defensive side of the ball. Scoring points, not so much of a big deal. Arizona getting 24 in Autzen sounds like enough, assuming the Wildcats can keep it close.
Take Arizona and the 24 for $50.
Kansas State (+14) @ Oklahoma: I should lay off this game, I really should. But looking at K-States stats leads me to believe that they could hang with the Sooners here. But after last week, who knows?
Take K-State and the 14 for $30
Clemson (+14) @ FSU: I believe FSU is the ACC team to beat this year. But Clemson, a 14 point dog in an ACC match-up? Really? I guess Dabo will have a lot of motivation this week and like I said, I’m taking dogs and points where ever possible this week.
Take Clemson and the 14 for $40
Michigan (+7) @ Domers: I’m glad I jumped on this spread on Monday as the line has moved 2 points down to 5. Which means there’s a bunch of wise guy money that believes Michigan and the points in this game is a good thing. Last 3 games have been decided by a total of 12 points. Look for an OT game with the possibility that Michigan comes out on top with a successful 2 point conversion. There will be mass Domer suicide afterwards in the form of alcohol consumption all over the campus and town of South Bend.
Take Michigan and the 7 for $60
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Michigan – Clemson-Arizona for $20
Starting Bank: $827
Total Bet: $250
Bank: $577
I was a little surprised at some of the feedback I received on last Friday’s post. Some took the time to state that the Domers playing 5 ACC games wasn’t that big of a deal considering that two of the teams the Domers had been playing regularly in the BEast are now moving to the ACC (Pitt and Syracuse). While I can’t ARGUE that, the point is that the Domers now have 5 games against members from a conference. So they can be tied into that conferences bowl agreements. Plain and simple, the Domers were getting screwed out of decent (read: Better Paying) post season matchups when they had an 8-5 or better record. $warbuck$ saw that money on the wall and simply made an easy decision that kept a majority of the “Independent” bandwagon drum beating people happy and got him what he wanted: Better late season scheduling and the opportunity to play on New Year’s day with a 3 or 4 loss season.
Full conference alignment won’t happen right away. I would say when the next Domer NBC contract expires will be about the time that ESPN will pony up for the ACC games that have the Domers as an opponent and the deep pockets of ESPN will be no match for NBC. Then, ESPN will dictate, “Well, we need more Domer content.” And the ACC will give a measurable amount to the Domers for a certain period and then it will be over. Domers are in the ACC. It’s kind of like pulling a band aid off real slow. It hurts all the way but in the end, the band aid is off and you start feeling better.
Anyway, enough about that nonsense and on to the more important issue:
The Game.
Michigan holds a 23-15-1 series advantage. This will be only the 40th meeting of these two schools. Shocking, in a way. Kind of like last year’s 24-7 come from behind victory with 28 - count em – 28 4th quarter points scored by the Maize and Blue… I hope Michigan can make it 24 wins tomorrow and let the groaning and pining for “Wait till next year!” cries to begin in South Bend! We’ve stolen 3 in a row and the last 5 out of 6. The odds are against Michigan, but I like their chances.
As for last week’s results, I’m a little gun shy about laying points other than in the most “lock” circumstances. And this week’s picks, with the exception of 1 game, will show that. I wish they had a money line in college football.
This Week’s Picks:
LSU (-18.5) @ Auburn: I have been burnt so much by giving points lately that you’d think I would have learned my lesson by now. Nope. Sometimes, it works! You just have to know which teams to like to cover. And I like Les in an SEC West showdown:
Take LSU and lay the 18.5 for $30
Arizona (+24) @ Oregon: Do I believe in The Rod or don’t I? I believe that Rich Rod did everything he could to win at Michigan. Biggest problem was he didn’t pay nearly enough attention to the defensive side of the ball. Scoring points, not so much of a big deal. Arizona getting 24 in Autzen sounds like enough, assuming the Wildcats can keep it close.
Take Arizona and the 24 for $50.
Kansas State (+14) @ Oklahoma: I should lay off this game, I really should. But looking at K-States stats leads me to believe that they could hang with the Sooners here. But after last week, who knows?
Take K-State and the 14 for $30
Clemson (+14) @ FSU: I believe FSU is the ACC team to beat this year. But Clemson, a 14 point dog in an ACC match-up? Really? I guess Dabo will have a lot of motivation this week and like I said, I’m taking dogs and points where ever possible this week.
Take Clemson and the 14 for $40
Michigan (+7) @ Domers: I’m glad I jumped on this spread on Monday as the line has moved 2 points down to 5. Which means there’s a bunch of wise guy money that believes Michigan and the points in this game is a good thing. Last 3 games have been decided by a total of 12 points. Look for an OT game with the possibility that Michigan comes out on top with a successful 2 point conversion. There will be mass Domer suicide afterwards in the form of alcohol consumption all over the campus and town of South Bend.
Take Michigan and the 7 for $60
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Michigan – Clemson-Arizona for $20
Starting Bank: $827
Total Bet: $250
Bank: $577
Monday, September 17, 2012
Ho Hum….UMass Offers Little As To What This Team IS
No need for healing pictures…But UMass’ team bloggers may want to steal a page from the M-Zone and try it. I don’t know what, if anything, you take away from the game if you’re a Minuteman. As expected, the Amaizin’ Blue treated UMass kind of like a new born puppy treats a chew toy: Abuse, thrash, shake around, repeat. With a couple of exceptions (D-Rob’s int being one of those) this game was a pretty good indication of what Michigan can look like against inferior opponents.
But, what exactly, if anything, did the fans (or the team for that matter) learn? I know that D-Rob is the fastest guy on the field in a regular game. He was more than likely faster than all of the UMass collective that he was facing. Michigan’s receivers were bigger, stronger and able to get wide open against a rather porous defense. Even the Michigan defense seemed to find a little something and put some stops on the UMass offense.
But at the end of the day with a lot of stats and even more points, what do we really know? This is still the same team that didn’t get a first down against Alabama until the 2nd quarter. Have they improved at all? I don’t know. Which is kind of why I hate playing these games. We learn nothing, risk injury and get a nice ‘W’ on the win-loss column. And yeah, it’s better than an ‘L’. I would not want to be Sparty this week.
Or USC….
Or Va Tech….
But more on them in a minute. This week, as usual, the mettle of Michigan will be tested against a group of players that have a purpose. Not only are they looking at revenge for the last three years, but there is an underlying hatred of what D-Rob and Michigan have done to the Domers (JEEZ I HATE THESE GUYS!) for two of the last three years….Charlie Wuzzles lost his last game in the last seconds….Ditto for Kelly. Kelly still hasn’t won a truly big game.
It’s going to be war.
I hope they’re ready.
Michigan is a road dog getting 7. That part I like.
The Rest of the Mess
Sparty – Domers: For one of the most anticipated games of the day, I have to say that this one was kind of a snoozer. Domers came out in shambles, immediately picked up a 5 yard penalty and then had to burn a time out before 1 second had ticked off the first quarter clock. Not that I minded. As the MMQ’s brother in law likes to say in a game like this: “Somebody I hate is gonna lose…” which isn’t a bad thing. What was bad, in my humble opinion, was that Sparty seemed to want to beat itself (in the bad way) more than the Domers did. Dropped passes, dropped interceptions, stupid penalties and an O-line that couldn’t keep anyone off their new QB, even though the Domers were only rushing 3 guys at times. I hate to think that Lou Holz is right and that the Domers “Are the real deal”, but I have to admit that Sparty made them look good. Sparty, which was the last undefeated hope of the B1G, goes down like a Viagra-less you know what at home….Does Michigan stand a chance?
Purdue-EMU: Purdue is making me nervous this year. I hate it when that happens….
Cremesicles vs. Gatorland: Dooley just moved UP on the Hot Seat List and Muschamp has figured out a way to keep himself off of the list. Game was good till 2nd half when everything went south for Tennessee.
Satan’s Warriors vs. Arkansas: I told you John L might find a way to get himself canned before his interim contract was up. I now have to move him into the top 10 after an embarrassing 52-0 shut-out loss at home. Telling the troops to keep their piss hot may not be enough coaching direction and the PTB at Arkansas may pull the trigger sooner rather than later.
Cheeseheads vs. Utah State: Beliema might have to move up a little on the ‘ole Hot Seat as beating Utah State is expected, but beating them only by a deuce is way unexpected. Cheesehead land is hurting without their O-coordinator who is getting it figured out at Pitt. Speaking of which….
Pitt vs. Va-Tech: WTF. I know, this is a family column, but really. Pitt looked absolutely dismal in their first two outings, one of which I partially watched when they lost to Cinci…And then they come out on Saturday and not only hang 35 on a decent VT defense, but hold a relatively explosive offense to 17? Maybe Berry Alvarez’s answer is to go hire the Pitt Head Coach BACK and let him run the show…
USC vs. Stanford: Okay. I’m done buying any of the hype of USC. They suck. Stanford, on the other hand, looks pretty darn good on the defensive side of the ball. And they may be the one making waves in the Pac 12 this year. The Ducks may have more to fear than just the usual suspects….
Suckeyes vs. Bears: Too bad the Bears couldn’t get a first down late or kick a field goal…Things just might have ended differently in the Shoe. Suckeyes have some blemishes on both offense and defense, but each rose to the occasion in the 4th quarter to seal the victory.
Idle Thoughts From Saturday
-What a gorgeous day for Football!
-I love bright, sunshiny 60 to 70 degree days in the fall with low humidity
-Anyone who doesn’t like that kind of weather?
-If you don't like it, I simply can’t relate to you.
-Why so much about the weather?
-Cause the 3:30 scrimmage I watched didn’t require me to think about too much…
-Okay, it was a game. But not really.
-I did think about next week vs. the Domers (JEEZ I HATE THESE GUYS!)
-And how we may only have a few more years to enjoy that rivalry.
-Can D-Rob and company pull off 4 in a row?
-They have to play the game, which I love!
-2nd hostile environment this year (If you’re counting Dallas as hostile)
-And D-Rob did okay last time down there. (hee-hee).
-I hope the BTN shows nothing but last year’s Under the Lights game this week…
-Domers come out and embarrass themselves…initially. Then, not so much.
-Might be a must win for Kelly. Can’t lose to Sparty and Wolverines again…
-Sparty looks off.
-Remote batteries are getting tired. Why can’t bowl days be like regular Football Saturdays?
-USC - Stanford and MSU-Domers. Two great match—ups.
-Stanford Defense is good. USC does NOT have a running game. Hence, one dimensional and easy to anticipate…
-Did anyone catch the end of the BYU - Utah Game?
-BYU kicker will be mentally scarred for life…Three opportunities with 0 ticks on the clock (to tie the game) and three misses…
-That sucks no matter who you are.
-PSU wins! I was glad to see that.
-Really. Haven’t the innocent all been through enough? Those kids are playing for pride.
-I hope they win a couple of B1G games, too.
The Hot Seat
This week’s Hot Seat Mascot is a nominee that came to my attention in my recent flights acround the globe. There isn’t much to do in economy on an airplane, so you watch a few movies. This actress was in Men In Black III and it made me wonder who she was. It didn’t take much research to conclude that she would be a good candidate. Without further ado: Alice Eve!
The order is a changing….But until Kelly beats Michigan, he stays at the top.
1. Kelly, Brian: Until someone, anyone unseats him or he beats Michigan, he has to be number 1.
2. John L Smith – He’s only on a 10 month contract, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they canned him before then…
3. Derek Dooley: Derek needed a W against Florida. He needed it really bad. I’m not sure he survives another season if the Vols don’t make a bowl.
4. Tedford: Only Hot Seat Coach to lose in Week 1!! But I can’t move him above Kelly.
5. Randy Edsall: Maryland is going to start thinking that with the ACC as screwed up as it is, why aren’t we winning more football games?
6. Kevin Wilson: But can Indiana really expect much more? Really?
7. Brett Beilema – Wiscy. His fans have expectations now. 200 yards of total offense are NOT their expectations.
8. Dabo Sweeney: Either find a defense or find a new job….
9. Mark Richt: Just because he will lose some game he’s not supposed to and the annual “Fire Mark Richt” bandwagon will get a spit polish and a coat of paint…
10. Tubberville: Yeah, he’ll have a defense, but those people at Texas Tech are used to FIREWORKS!!!!!
11. Frank Spaziani: BC is a proud school that doesn’t get a lot of attention…
12. Mack Brown: I know, I know. But you didn’t think they would fire Joe Pa, either. Believe the MMQ when I say that his retirement or canning is nearer than you think…
13. Bo Pelini – Cornsucker fans expect to beat their non-conference opponents.
The FMQ
Jeez…The FMQ is humbled again. I hate it when that happens. Biggest problem that I can see in the self analysis: Too much faith in teams to cover. Too much faith in revenge games. Too much faith in bad teams staying bad. But when there’s upsets, well…That makes me feel even worse because the other side of the bet would have been stress free!
EMU @ Purdue(-24): Take Purdue and lay the 24 for $30
WIN! Danny Hope doesn’t like anything with Michigan in the title. BANK: $57
Domers @ Sparty (-6.5): Take Sparty and lay the 6.5 for $50
Doth mine eyes deceive me? Where did Sparty go and are the Domers that good? LOSE
USC (-10) @ Stanford:
Take USC and lay the 10 for $60
Huh, wah? Stanford 4 in a row over the Mighty Trojans?….LOSE
Va Tech (-12) @ Pitt: Take Va Tech, lay the 12 for $50
I don’t like the trend this is taking. Did you also notice that these last three games weren’t only point spread losses – THEY WERE UPSETS that I was on the wrong side of….
’dis ish wen my hed asploded…..LOSE
UMASS @ Michigan (-45): Take Michigan and lay the 45 for $60
Okay…two wins…But this was a miserable week…BANK: $114
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Michigan – MSU - USC for $20
LOSE
Starting Bank: $656
Total Win: $171
Bank: $827 (Ugh….I hate going in the hole early….)
Early Monday Picks:
Michigan (+7) @ Domers
LSU (-18.5) @ Auburn
Arizona (+24) @ Oregon
Kansas State (+14) @ Oklahoma
But, what exactly, if anything, did the fans (or the team for that matter) learn? I know that D-Rob is the fastest guy on the field in a regular game. He was more than likely faster than all of the UMass collective that he was facing. Michigan’s receivers were bigger, stronger and able to get wide open against a rather porous defense. Even the Michigan defense seemed to find a little something and put some stops on the UMass offense.
But at the end of the day with a lot of stats and even more points, what do we really know? This is still the same team that didn’t get a first down against Alabama until the 2nd quarter. Have they improved at all? I don’t know. Which is kind of why I hate playing these games. We learn nothing, risk injury and get a nice ‘W’ on the win-loss column. And yeah, it’s better than an ‘L’. I would not want to be Sparty this week.
Or USC….
Or Va Tech….
But more on them in a minute. This week, as usual, the mettle of Michigan will be tested against a group of players that have a purpose. Not only are they looking at revenge for the last three years, but there is an underlying hatred of what D-Rob and Michigan have done to the Domers (JEEZ I HATE THESE GUYS!) for two of the last three years….Charlie Wuzzles lost his last game in the last seconds….Ditto for Kelly. Kelly still hasn’t won a truly big game.
It’s going to be war.
I hope they’re ready.
Michigan is a road dog getting 7. That part I like.
The Rest of the Mess
Sparty – Domers: For one of the most anticipated games of the day, I have to say that this one was kind of a snoozer. Domers came out in shambles, immediately picked up a 5 yard penalty and then had to burn a time out before 1 second had ticked off the first quarter clock. Not that I minded. As the MMQ’s brother in law likes to say in a game like this: “Somebody I hate is gonna lose…” which isn’t a bad thing. What was bad, in my humble opinion, was that Sparty seemed to want to beat itself (in the bad way) more than the Domers did. Dropped passes, dropped interceptions, stupid penalties and an O-line that couldn’t keep anyone off their new QB, even though the Domers were only rushing 3 guys at times. I hate to think that Lou Holz is right and that the Domers “Are the real deal”, but I have to admit that Sparty made them look good. Sparty, which was the last undefeated hope of the B1G, goes down like a Viagra-less you know what at home….Does Michigan stand a chance?
Purdue-EMU: Purdue is making me nervous this year. I hate it when that happens….
Cremesicles vs. Gatorland: Dooley just moved UP on the Hot Seat List and Muschamp has figured out a way to keep himself off of the list. Game was good till 2nd half when everything went south for Tennessee.
Satan’s Warriors vs. Arkansas: I told you John L might find a way to get himself canned before his interim contract was up. I now have to move him into the top 10 after an embarrassing 52-0 shut-out loss at home. Telling the troops to keep their piss hot may not be enough coaching direction and the PTB at Arkansas may pull the trigger sooner rather than later.
Cheeseheads vs. Utah State: Beliema might have to move up a little on the ‘ole Hot Seat as beating Utah State is expected, but beating them only by a deuce is way unexpected. Cheesehead land is hurting without their O-coordinator who is getting it figured out at Pitt. Speaking of which….
Pitt vs. Va-Tech: WTF. I know, this is a family column, but really. Pitt looked absolutely dismal in their first two outings, one of which I partially watched when they lost to Cinci…And then they come out on Saturday and not only hang 35 on a decent VT defense, but hold a relatively explosive offense to 17? Maybe Berry Alvarez’s answer is to go hire the Pitt Head Coach BACK and let him run the show…
USC vs. Stanford: Okay. I’m done buying any of the hype of USC. They suck. Stanford, on the other hand, looks pretty darn good on the defensive side of the ball. And they may be the one making waves in the Pac 12 this year. The Ducks may have more to fear than just the usual suspects….
Suckeyes vs. Bears: Too bad the Bears couldn’t get a first down late or kick a field goal…Things just might have ended differently in the Shoe. Suckeyes have some blemishes on both offense and defense, but each rose to the occasion in the 4th quarter to seal the victory.
Idle Thoughts From Saturday
-What a gorgeous day for Football!
-I love bright, sunshiny 60 to 70 degree days in the fall with low humidity
-Anyone who doesn’t like that kind of weather?
-If you don't like it, I simply can’t relate to you.
-Why so much about the weather?
-Cause the 3:30 scrimmage I watched didn’t require me to think about too much…
-Okay, it was a game. But not really.
-I did think about next week vs. the Domers (JEEZ I HATE THESE GUYS!)
-And how we may only have a few more years to enjoy that rivalry.
-Can D-Rob and company pull off 4 in a row?
-They have to play the game, which I love!
-2nd hostile environment this year (If you’re counting Dallas as hostile)
-And D-Rob did okay last time down there. (hee-hee).
-I hope the BTN shows nothing but last year’s Under the Lights game this week…
-Domers come out and embarrass themselves…initially. Then, not so much.
-Might be a must win for Kelly. Can’t lose to Sparty and Wolverines again…
-Sparty looks off.
-Remote batteries are getting tired. Why can’t bowl days be like regular Football Saturdays?
-USC - Stanford and MSU-Domers. Two great match—ups.
-Stanford Defense is good. USC does NOT have a running game. Hence, one dimensional and easy to anticipate…
-Did anyone catch the end of the BYU - Utah Game?
-BYU kicker will be mentally scarred for life…Three opportunities with 0 ticks on the clock (to tie the game) and three misses…
-That sucks no matter who you are.
-PSU wins! I was glad to see that.
-Really. Haven’t the innocent all been through enough? Those kids are playing for pride.
-I hope they win a couple of B1G games, too.
The Hot Seat
This week’s Hot Seat Mascot is a nominee that came to my attention in my recent flights acround the globe. There isn’t much to do in economy on an airplane, so you watch a few movies. This actress was in Men In Black III and it made me wonder who she was. It didn’t take much research to conclude that she would be a good candidate. Without further ado: Alice Eve!
1. Kelly, Brian: Until someone, anyone unseats him or he beats Michigan, he has to be number 1.
2. John L Smith – He’s only on a 10 month contract, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they canned him before then…
3. Derek Dooley: Derek needed a W against Florida. He needed it really bad. I’m not sure he survives another season if the Vols don’t make a bowl.
4. Tedford: Only Hot Seat Coach to lose in Week 1!! But I can’t move him above Kelly.
5. Randy Edsall: Maryland is going to start thinking that with the ACC as screwed up as it is, why aren’t we winning more football games?
6. Kevin Wilson: But can Indiana really expect much more? Really?
7. Brett Beilema – Wiscy. His fans have expectations now. 200 yards of total offense are NOT their expectations.
8. Dabo Sweeney: Either find a defense or find a new job….
9. Mark Richt: Just because he will lose some game he’s not supposed to and the annual “Fire Mark Richt” bandwagon will get a spit polish and a coat of paint…
10. Tubberville: Yeah, he’ll have a defense, but those people at Texas Tech are used to FIREWORKS!!!!!
11. Frank Spaziani: BC is a proud school that doesn’t get a lot of attention…
12. Mack Brown: I know, I know. But you didn’t think they would fire Joe Pa, either. Believe the MMQ when I say that his retirement or canning is nearer than you think…
13. Bo Pelini – Cornsucker fans expect to beat their non-conference opponents.
The FMQ
Jeez…The FMQ is humbled again. I hate it when that happens. Biggest problem that I can see in the self analysis: Too much faith in teams to cover. Too much faith in revenge games. Too much faith in bad teams staying bad. But when there’s upsets, well…That makes me feel even worse because the other side of the bet would have been stress free!
EMU @ Purdue(-24): Take Purdue and lay the 24 for $30
WIN! Danny Hope doesn’t like anything with Michigan in the title. BANK: $57
Domers @ Sparty (-6.5): Take Sparty and lay the 6.5 for $50
Doth mine eyes deceive me? Where did Sparty go and are the Domers that good? LOSE
USC (-10) @ Stanford:
Take USC and lay the 10 for $60
Huh, wah? Stanford 4 in a row over the Mighty Trojans?….LOSE
Va Tech (-12) @ Pitt: Take Va Tech, lay the 12 for $50
I don’t like the trend this is taking. Did you also notice that these last three games weren’t only point spread losses – THEY WERE UPSETS that I was on the wrong side of….
’dis ish wen my hed asploded…..LOSE
UMASS @ Michigan (-45): Take Michigan and lay the 45 for $60
Okay…two wins…But this was a miserable week…BANK: $114
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Michigan – MSU - USC for $20
LOSE
Starting Bank: $656
Total Win: $171
Bank: $827 (Ugh….I hate going in the hole early….)
Early Monday Picks:
Michigan (+7) @ Domers
LSU (-18.5) @ Auburn
Arizona (+24) @ Oregon
Kansas State (+14) @ Oklahoma
Friday, September 14, 2012
FMQ UMass Friday
Before we get to the betting, some quick comments on the Domers joining the ACC (And if you’re a Domer fan, they DID join the ACC). The ACC gets to dictate who the Domers play each year with a guarantee that they play all ACC opponents in three years. The Domers can decide (and I’m not really sure I get this one) whether or not they go to the ACC venue or play the ACC foe at home. Someone needs to ‘splain that one to me. If I’m the Domers, I just make everyone come to my house. I guess it must have something to do with the odd teams that they won’t play home-home? Whatever, the bottom line is that two of the following three teams, Purdue, Michigan and MSU just lost the Domer series. IF I had to guess, I would say that it’s Michigan and MSU, and that’s BS. The Domers are turning their backs on the Midwest tradition that they are and looking to make the subway fans happy on the East coast. And before long, the ACC will slowly force the Domers to add a 6th game and so on until all that’s left is 3 or 4 open games on the schedule for USC, Navy, Stanford and the obligatory cupcake.
Welcome to College Football, Domers.
Will I miss the opportunity Michigan gets to pound on the Domers? You bet. But I also believe there are more Michigan worthy opponents out there (save the Alabama Slamma jokes) that would benefit Michigan and the B1G as a whole. I like the idea of an SEC matchup pre-season. Southern exposure and some great matchups could be created. As the Tailgate crowd has been saying for years: Michigan –Tennessee home and home would be awesome.
On to more important things: I felt better after last week’s bets. Really. I know we only added about $8 dollars to the overall bank, but the at bat and the swing last week were sound. It’s a lot like playing poker: You can only make the best decision you can with the information that’s available to you at the time you make the decision. Being results oriented is kind of the wrong way to look at it.
And it ticks me off that I didn’t pay closer attention to where the USC –Syracuse game was being played and I will not make that mistake again….Even though I seem to get a little lazy each year and make a mental error somewhere along the way.
This Week’s Picks:
EMU @ Purdue(-24): I almost (almost) went the other way on this game, but I think Danny Hope is not going to let the Boilers get too low after almost upsetting the Domers. I also think that EMU doesn’t have an offense or a defense that matches up with a B1G school this year.
Take Purdue and lay the 24 for $30
Domers @ Sparty (-6.5): There is no let down in Sparty this year and what I thought would be a rebuilding year on offense has proven to be less of a task then I imagined. Add to that the Sparty defense and you have a perfect revenge game mix for Sparty at Home. Did you know that 6 of the last 7 have been decided by a TD or less in this series? The one exception: Last year’s blowout of Sparty in Domer land. Yeah…Revenge is sweet….
Take Sparty and lay the 6.5 for $50
USC (-10) @ Stanford: No Mr. Lucky at Stanford means that Stanford is VULNERABLE. I honestly think Lane Kiffin was trying to “run the ball” last week after the Rubbers got a healthy lead on the Cuse just to see if he could. Result: He can’t. But that doesn’t mean that this USC team can’t score points through the air. Which has been a perennial weakness at Stanford. Look for Barkley to make a Heisman statement Saturday.
Take USC and lay the 10 for $60
Va Tech (-12) @ Pitt: Pitt is a train wreck. And that’s being kind. I’m not sure what Vegas is looking at here as Va Tech has been extremely effective on both sides of the ball this year. That close game against the Yelow Jackets? They still looked good. And Pitt lost to Youngstown State….I have to lay more points and
Take Va Tech, lay the 12 for $50
Satan’s Warriors (-20) @ Arkansas: Wow…I really thought this would be more in the 27-28 point range spread. Even though Arkansas was a ranked team last week, they looked terrible. I have seen teams turn it around in a week, but I’m not sure they can turn that wreck around. John L Smith isn’t the guy that has proven he’s capable of leading a team back from the edge…He usually just takes them over it. Still, maybe Vegas knows something I don’t? As much as I want to play Satan’s Warriors here and lay the points….PASS
UMASS @ Michigan (-45): Oh, let’s see who UMASS has played. Indiana crushed them 45-3. That’s as far as I need to look. Assuming that UMASS comes out with the same team and Michigan’s offense is running on at least 6 of the 8 cylinders, I would expect Michigan to cover this sometime in the 3rd quarter. If they don’t, then I’m going to be really pissed….
Take Michigan and lay the 45 for $60
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Michigan – MSU - USC for $20
Starting Bank: $926
Total Bet: $270
Bank: $656
Welcome to College Football, Domers.
Will I miss the opportunity Michigan gets to pound on the Domers? You bet. But I also believe there are more Michigan worthy opponents out there (save the Alabama Slamma jokes) that would benefit Michigan and the B1G as a whole. I like the idea of an SEC matchup pre-season. Southern exposure and some great matchups could be created. As the Tailgate crowd has been saying for years: Michigan –Tennessee home and home would be awesome.
On to more important things: I felt better after last week’s bets. Really. I know we only added about $8 dollars to the overall bank, but the at bat and the swing last week were sound. It’s a lot like playing poker: You can only make the best decision you can with the information that’s available to you at the time you make the decision. Being results oriented is kind of the wrong way to look at it.
And it ticks me off that I didn’t pay closer attention to where the USC –Syracuse game was being played and I will not make that mistake again….Even though I seem to get a little lazy each year and make a mental error somewhere along the way.
This Week’s Picks:
EMU @ Purdue(-24): I almost (almost) went the other way on this game, but I think Danny Hope is not going to let the Boilers get too low after almost upsetting the Domers. I also think that EMU doesn’t have an offense or a defense that matches up with a B1G school this year.
Take Purdue and lay the 24 for $30
Domers @ Sparty (-6.5): There is no let down in Sparty this year and what I thought would be a rebuilding year on offense has proven to be less of a task then I imagined. Add to that the Sparty defense and you have a perfect revenge game mix for Sparty at Home. Did you know that 6 of the last 7 have been decided by a TD or less in this series? The one exception: Last year’s blowout of Sparty in Domer land. Yeah…Revenge is sweet….
Take Sparty and lay the 6.5 for $50
USC (-10) @ Stanford: No Mr. Lucky at Stanford means that Stanford is VULNERABLE. I honestly think Lane Kiffin was trying to “run the ball” last week after the Rubbers got a healthy lead on the Cuse just to see if he could. Result: He can’t. But that doesn’t mean that this USC team can’t score points through the air. Which has been a perennial weakness at Stanford. Look for Barkley to make a Heisman statement Saturday.
Take USC and lay the 10 for $60
Va Tech (-12) @ Pitt: Pitt is a train wreck. And that’s being kind. I’m not sure what Vegas is looking at here as Va Tech has been extremely effective on both sides of the ball this year. That close game against the Yelow Jackets? They still looked good. And Pitt lost to Youngstown State….I have to lay more points and
Take Va Tech, lay the 12 for $50
Satan’s Warriors (-20) @ Arkansas: Wow…I really thought this would be more in the 27-28 point range spread. Even though Arkansas was a ranked team last week, they looked terrible. I have seen teams turn it around in a week, but I’m not sure they can turn that wreck around. John L Smith isn’t the guy that has proven he’s capable of leading a team back from the edge…He usually just takes them over it. Still, maybe Vegas knows something I don’t? As much as I want to play Satan’s Warriors here and lay the points….PASS
UMASS @ Michigan (-45): Oh, let’s see who UMASS has played. Indiana crushed them 45-3. That’s as far as I need to look. Assuming that UMASS comes out with the same team and Michigan’s offense is running on at least 6 of the 8 cylinders, I would expect Michigan to cover this sometime in the 3rd quarter. If they don’t, then I’m going to be really pissed….
Take Michigan and lay the 45 for $60
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Michigan – MSU - USC for $20
Starting Bank: $926
Total Bet: $270
Bank: $656
Monday, September 10, 2012
Off We Go, Into the 0.500 Yonder!
Wie Gehts! Coming to you from a bar stool in Germany….Yes, they have bar stools over here and free wifi (They call it “wee-fee”). I think it’s a play on words. I'm slightly intoxicated (give me credit for spelling that without error) and if there are any oopsies in this week's entry I blame it on the Becks!
Tough Home Opener. I don’t know if those were my exact words, but I said something to that effect when I penned the Pre-Season spectacular. Triple option offense, smart, disciplined defense with a bunch of kids that are collectively smarter than your average football team. Put it all together and you get a game in the Big House that is a whole lot closer than most people would think.
Air Force is a 5 consecutive season bowl team and some of those bowls were “not” of the fleab bag variety. They have a winning record under Calhoun and I KNEW they would give Michigan fits.
And they did. I expected a tight game and that’s exactly what we got. Therefore, I’m not panicking nearly as much as the general public was on Sunday and Monday when it came to reviewing the final stats and outcome of this game. Yeah, we won and we won on DeRob’s running ability that Air Force simply had no defense for. They were disciplined and tried to defend D-Rob the way that everyone else had, but you need the correct speedy personnel and the right scheme in which to defend him. Without that, well, you look like Air Force.
My major concern was that there were times where the defense was still missing tackles and they also looked out of position….that’s unforgivable and needs to get better.
You don’t hand out grades on one game and as Brady Hoke said in the presser, a win is a win. U-Mass is the closest thing to a “cupcake” that we have on the schedule this year and frankly, when it comes to the defense, that sounds really good.
The Rest of the Mess
Sparty – Chippies: Well, again, this was not un-expected by the MMQ or the FMQ. Friday I stated that Sparty would win this walking away and that’s what happened. Sparty coverd sometime late in the first or early in the 2nd and never looked back. This week is “The Game” for Sparty and they more or less want to take the Domers to task.
Domers – Purdue: Danny Hope’s crowd almost spoiled the Domer’s season early and looked incredibly effective against a defense that looked Bama-esque against Navy. Not to mention that Purdue’s defense was in the Domer backfield all day. Gholson get’s yanked for Reese in the last drive and Domer’s win by a field goal….I think they will have their hands full this weekend.
Sec Newcomers vs. SEC ESTABLISHMENT: Neither Mizzou or the Aggies looked very good against their new SEC counterparts. While they hung close for a half, both SEC teams demonstrated that you need to play a full 60 minutes of football in their league if you want to be competitive and in the game at the end.
LMU – Arkansas: And no, that isn’t the MMQ’s nomenclature for Les Miles’ University. That is the Louisiana Monroe University that must get all the SEC Juco recruits that either can’t make the grade in the SEC (meaning, they’re REALLY in need of education) or they are the cast-offs from in state over-recruiting. Whatever the case, Arkansas and John L. Smith opened up several doors for LMU and LMU gladly went through them. Will Arkansas put on the same performance this week? Highly doubtful, but if they do, Alabama will make them look worse than Michigan looked
Beavers vs. Cheeseheads: Not unexpected by the experts and frankly I guessed that the same thing could happen. Something about B1G teams going out to the West Coast presents a problem. Women, weather, and jet lag. I don’t know why the combination of those three present problems, but the B1G can’t play out there….speaking of not being able to play
Cornsuckers vs. Bruins: The Black shirt Defense isn’t anymore and Mora has turned a new page at UCLA. I figured it was only a matter of time at UCLA and perhaps that time has come. That’s a game that the Bruins can build on and the Cornsuckers will scratch their heads on and try to figure out how they lost….
Va-Tech vs. Snooze….They won. Beamer’s boys go 2-0 quietly and look to re-establish their ACC dominance.
Wildcats – Cowboys: Rich Rod finds a way to knock off a top 20 team early in the season….We’ve seen that before (I think) and I’m curious as to whether or not he can keep it up out there in the Pac 12….
Idle Thoughts From Saturday
-I wonder if Kovacs will get the Bennie Oosterban jersey?
-I think he exemplifies the heart and desire of a Michigan Man…
-Okay, Jake Ryan is a good choice also…
-Jake – Ryan. Two first names….
-Happens to be the first names of two of the MMQ’s nephews, also.
-One attended Michigan’s Football camp…
-We look good on offense.
-BTW, I REALLY like this Funches Kid….Just a frosh and that size!
-We might see a lot of him in the future.
-With some of these receivers, I wish we had a drop back and chuck it QB….
-You know, a Quality Passer, not a Thrower (Thanks, Joe Namath)
-Jake Ryan had better be pumped up, he’s going to have a long day as the Triple Option lone wolf on defense.
-Assignment football. Every defender takes a man and keys on that guy…
-That leaves one guy that has to make a decision or be REALLY, REALLY fast to defend the ball carrier and the option.
-During the Game: Calhoun plays with his junk a alot...
-It got embarrassing...they kept putting him on TV with a handful...And he didn't care...
-I guess if you have a full handful, you've got nothing to be concerned about....
-But really....Can you stop touching for a couple of hours on national TV?
-Apparently, Michigan’s Defense practiced all week without a football on demo team’s offense in order to drive the point home.
-Still looked like they didn’t quite get it.
-But it’s an incredibly tough offense to defend when you don’t see it week in and week out.
-Why don’t they use in the NFL?
-Team defense speed negates the advantage, or so we’re told.
-It’s not sexy, but effective.
-Domers are on upset alert…
-So is Michigan.
-LMU looks pretty good.
-Arkansas and John L Smith….Hee-Hee…
-I’m glad I’m not them tonight or this week.
-Actually, that might be the edge that they need against Bama…
-Bama will figure, “Eh, these guys suck.”
-Surprise potential? Maybe….
-Wiscy didn’t look good until the last couple of minutes in the 4th Quarter.
-I thought they got the onside kick, also.
-Bad call from the re-play booth.
-But for a team that averaged 45 points a game last year, they looked miserable…
-Monte Ball was non-existent.
-How many O-line guys did they lose?
-Nebraska looked slow against the Bruins.
-Domers (Kelly) pulls Gholson for Kung-Fu Reese.
-Was it me, or did I hear Kung-Fu fighting come on over the stadium loud speakers?
-What I would have given to have a 5 minutes in the music booth in Domer Stadium when he took the field...to a chorus of boos, by the way.
-Just wishful thinking on the MMQ’s part…
-Don’t look now, but Rich Rod 2-0 and in top 25 after upsetting Okie State.
-But we’ve seen that movie before….
-Of course, the Pac 12 does suit him better with the lack of defensive focus….
-SEC is the SEC.
-When is the NCAA going to look into the over-recruiting/signing issue and decide that there is an unfair advantage when it comes to SEC protocol and over-signing practice?
-Probably never…That’s just the NCAA
-Rather kick a University that’s already reeling and atoning for its own sins in their collective cajones. Even though the current coaches and players had nothing to do with anything….
-Un-intended consequences.
The Hot Seat
Well, I must admit, I think it takes awhile for the MMQ readership to remember that they need to vote or the MMQ mascot or who knows what we will end up with over on the right this year. While I understand the choice between Jenn and Jessica was a no brainer (except for a couple of voters that must prefer blondes), you should still vote. After all, if this presidential election cycle has taught us nothing else besides “Money doesn’t matter to Obama (No Kidding. Michelle, I think most of us knew that already)” and that Romney is ready for the challenge….What platform, exactly, is Romney running on?
Unfortunately, while there are new Hot Seats in the NCAA this Monday after several of the upsets, I really see no reason to change the order….But I will add a couple…
1. Kelly, Brian: Until someone, anyone unseats him or he beats Michigan, he has to be number 1.
2. Tedford: Only Hot Seat Coach to lose in Week 1!! But I can’t move him above Kelly.
3. Derek Dooley: No way he survives another bowl-less year…Much less another year of sub 0.500 SEC ball…
4. Mack Brown: I know, I know. But you didn’t think they would fire Joe Pa, either. Believe the MMQ when I say that his retirement or canning is nearer than you think…
5. Randy Edsall: Maryland is going to start thinking that with the ACC as screwed up as it is, why aren’t we winning more football games?
6. Kevin Wilson: But can Indiana really expect much more? Really?
7. Mark Richt: Just because he will lose some game he’s not supposed to and the annual “Fire Mark Richt” bandwagon will get a spit polish and a coat of paint…
8. Dabo Sweeney: Either find a defense or find a new job….
9. Frank Spaziani: BC is a proud school that doesn’t get a lot of attention…
10. Tubberville: Yeah, he’ll have a defense, but those people at Texas Tech are used to FIREWORKS!!!!!
11. Brett Beilema – Wiscy. His fans have expectations now. 200 yards of total offense are NOT their expectations.
12. John L Smith – He’s only on a 10 month contract, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they canned him before then…
13. Bo Pelini – Cornsucker fans expect to beat their non-conference opponents.
The FMQ
Well, not terrible this week, but some surprises and misses none the less….I'm happy that we improved the bank roll, but we could have done better. Let’s get right to it.
Ball State (+28) @ Clemson:
Take Ball State and the 28 for $30
WIN! Ball State covers the 28….Barely. Bank: $57
Sparty (-20) @ Central:
Take Sparty and lay the 20 for $30
WIN! Sparty had this covered in the 1st Quarter…Bank $57
USC (-26) @ Syracuse:
Take USC and lay the 26 for $50
Okay, had I LOOKED at the weather report, I would have laid off this game…Lose
Vandy (-3) @ Northwestern:
Take Vandy and lay the 3 for $40
WTF…I guess Vandy was more down than I thought and NWU is better than I thought…Lose
Louisiana Monroe (+31) @ Arkansas: Take Louisiana Monroe and the 31 points for $50
WIN! Should have bet more…I had a good feeling about this one: Bank $95
Air Force (+21) @ Michigan:
Take Air Force and the 21 for $30
WIN! What did I tell you? Bank: $57
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Take Vandy – LMU – USC for $18.50
Not even close…Might use the dog Parlay this week.
Starting Bank: $660
Total Win: $266
Bank: $926
Early Monday Picks:
Va Tech (-12) @ Pitt
Gophers (-3) vs. Western
Michigan (-45) vs. UMass
USC (-10) @ Stanford
Sparty (-4) vs. Domers
Tough Home Opener. I don’t know if those were my exact words, but I said something to that effect when I penned the Pre-Season spectacular. Triple option offense, smart, disciplined defense with a bunch of kids that are collectively smarter than your average football team. Put it all together and you get a game in the Big House that is a whole lot closer than most people would think.
Air Force is a 5 consecutive season bowl team and some of those bowls were “not” of the fleab bag variety. They have a winning record under Calhoun and I KNEW they would give Michigan fits.
And they did. I expected a tight game and that’s exactly what we got. Therefore, I’m not panicking nearly as much as the general public was on Sunday and Monday when it came to reviewing the final stats and outcome of this game. Yeah, we won and we won on DeRob’s running ability that Air Force simply had no defense for. They were disciplined and tried to defend D-Rob the way that everyone else had, but you need the correct speedy personnel and the right scheme in which to defend him. Without that, well, you look like Air Force.
My major concern was that there were times where the defense was still missing tackles and they also looked out of position….that’s unforgivable and needs to get better.
You don’t hand out grades on one game and as Brady Hoke said in the presser, a win is a win. U-Mass is the closest thing to a “cupcake” that we have on the schedule this year and frankly, when it comes to the defense, that sounds really good.
The Rest of the Mess
Sparty – Chippies: Well, again, this was not un-expected by the MMQ or the FMQ. Friday I stated that Sparty would win this walking away and that’s what happened. Sparty coverd sometime late in the first or early in the 2nd and never looked back. This week is “The Game” for Sparty and they more or less want to take the Domers to task.
Domers – Purdue: Danny Hope’s crowd almost spoiled the Domer’s season early and looked incredibly effective against a defense that looked Bama-esque against Navy. Not to mention that Purdue’s defense was in the Domer backfield all day. Gholson get’s yanked for Reese in the last drive and Domer’s win by a field goal….I think they will have their hands full this weekend.
Sec Newcomers vs. SEC ESTABLISHMENT: Neither Mizzou or the Aggies looked very good against their new SEC counterparts. While they hung close for a half, both SEC teams demonstrated that you need to play a full 60 minutes of football in their league if you want to be competitive and in the game at the end.
LMU – Arkansas: And no, that isn’t the MMQ’s nomenclature for Les Miles’ University. That is the Louisiana Monroe University that must get all the SEC Juco recruits that either can’t make the grade in the SEC (meaning, they’re REALLY in need of education) or they are the cast-offs from in state over-recruiting. Whatever the case, Arkansas and John L. Smith opened up several doors for LMU and LMU gladly went through them. Will Arkansas put on the same performance this week? Highly doubtful, but if they do, Alabama will make them look worse than Michigan looked
Beavers vs. Cheeseheads: Not unexpected by the experts and frankly I guessed that the same thing could happen. Something about B1G teams going out to the West Coast presents a problem. Women, weather, and jet lag. I don’t know why the combination of those three present problems, but the B1G can’t play out there….speaking of not being able to play
Cornsuckers vs. Bruins: The Black shirt Defense isn’t anymore and Mora has turned a new page at UCLA. I figured it was only a matter of time at UCLA and perhaps that time has come. That’s a game that the Bruins can build on and the Cornsuckers will scratch their heads on and try to figure out how they lost….
Va-Tech vs. Snooze….They won. Beamer’s boys go 2-0 quietly and look to re-establish their ACC dominance.
Wildcats – Cowboys: Rich Rod finds a way to knock off a top 20 team early in the season….We’ve seen that before (I think) and I’m curious as to whether or not he can keep it up out there in the Pac 12….
Idle Thoughts From Saturday
-I wonder if Kovacs will get the Bennie Oosterban jersey?
-I think he exemplifies the heart and desire of a Michigan Man…
-Okay, Jake Ryan is a good choice also…
-Jake – Ryan. Two first names….
-Happens to be the first names of two of the MMQ’s nephews, also.
-One attended Michigan’s Football camp…
-We look good on offense.
-BTW, I REALLY like this Funches Kid….Just a frosh and that size!
-We might see a lot of him in the future.
-With some of these receivers, I wish we had a drop back and chuck it QB….
-You know, a Quality Passer, not a Thrower (Thanks, Joe Namath)
-Jake Ryan had better be pumped up, he’s going to have a long day as the Triple Option lone wolf on defense.
-Assignment football. Every defender takes a man and keys on that guy…
-That leaves one guy that has to make a decision or be REALLY, REALLY fast to defend the ball carrier and the option.
-During the Game: Calhoun plays with his junk a alot...
-It got embarrassing...they kept putting him on TV with a handful...And he didn't care...
-I guess if you have a full handful, you've got nothing to be concerned about....
-But really....Can you stop touching for a couple of hours on national TV?
-Apparently, Michigan’s Defense practiced all week without a football on demo team’s offense in order to drive the point home.
-Still looked like they didn’t quite get it.
-But it’s an incredibly tough offense to defend when you don’t see it week in and week out.
-Why don’t they use in the NFL?
-Team defense speed negates the advantage, or so we’re told.
-It’s not sexy, but effective.
-Domers are on upset alert…
-So is Michigan.
-LMU looks pretty good.
-Arkansas and John L Smith….Hee-Hee…
-I’m glad I’m not them tonight or this week.
-Actually, that might be the edge that they need against Bama…
-Bama will figure, “Eh, these guys suck.”
-Surprise potential? Maybe….
-Wiscy didn’t look good until the last couple of minutes in the 4th Quarter.
-I thought they got the onside kick, also.
-Bad call from the re-play booth.
-But for a team that averaged 45 points a game last year, they looked miserable…
-Monte Ball was non-existent.
-How many O-line guys did they lose?
-Nebraska looked slow against the Bruins.
-Domers (Kelly) pulls Gholson for Kung-Fu Reese.
-Was it me, or did I hear Kung-Fu fighting come on over the stadium loud speakers?
-What I would have given to have a 5 minutes in the music booth in Domer Stadium when he took the field...to a chorus of boos, by the way.
-Just wishful thinking on the MMQ’s part…
-Don’t look now, but Rich Rod 2-0 and in top 25 after upsetting Okie State.
-But we’ve seen that movie before….
-Of course, the Pac 12 does suit him better with the lack of defensive focus….
-SEC is the SEC.
-When is the NCAA going to look into the over-recruiting/signing issue and decide that there is an unfair advantage when it comes to SEC protocol and over-signing practice?
-Probably never…That’s just the NCAA
-Rather kick a University that’s already reeling and atoning for its own sins in their collective cajones. Even though the current coaches and players had nothing to do with anything….
-Un-intended consequences.
The Hot Seat
Well, I must admit, I think it takes awhile for the MMQ readership to remember that they need to vote or the MMQ mascot or who knows what we will end up with over on the right this year. While I understand the choice between Jenn and Jessica was a no brainer (except for a couple of voters that must prefer blondes), you should still vote. After all, if this presidential election cycle has taught us nothing else besides “Money doesn’t matter to Obama (No Kidding. Michelle, I think most of us knew that already)” and that Romney is ready for the challenge….What platform, exactly, is Romney running on?
Enough, however, about politics and on to this week’s Hot Seat Mascot nominee: Bar Raefalei! Yeah, I didn't have a clue as to who she was either until I was at Lady Jane's om M-59 getting my hair cut and picked up the latest issue of Maxim...And the MMQ was like, "Wow! I'm happy in my pants!" Not that I know what that means....For the younger crowd reading....But damn....The MMQ is like a little breathless putting this Mascot in place....
Unfortunately, while there are new Hot Seats in the NCAA this Monday after several of the upsets, I really see no reason to change the order….But I will add a couple…1. Kelly, Brian: Until someone, anyone unseats him or he beats Michigan, he has to be number 1.
2. Tedford: Only Hot Seat Coach to lose in Week 1!! But I can’t move him above Kelly.
3. Derek Dooley: No way he survives another bowl-less year…Much less another year of sub 0.500 SEC ball…
4. Mack Brown: I know, I know. But you didn’t think they would fire Joe Pa, either. Believe the MMQ when I say that his retirement or canning is nearer than you think…
5. Randy Edsall: Maryland is going to start thinking that with the ACC as screwed up as it is, why aren’t we winning more football games?
6. Kevin Wilson: But can Indiana really expect much more? Really?
7. Mark Richt: Just because he will lose some game he’s not supposed to and the annual “Fire Mark Richt” bandwagon will get a spit polish and a coat of paint…
8. Dabo Sweeney: Either find a defense or find a new job….
9. Frank Spaziani: BC is a proud school that doesn’t get a lot of attention…
10. Tubberville: Yeah, he’ll have a defense, but those people at Texas Tech are used to FIREWORKS!!!!!
11. Brett Beilema – Wiscy. His fans have expectations now. 200 yards of total offense are NOT their expectations.
12. John L Smith – He’s only on a 10 month contract, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they canned him before then…
13. Bo Pelini – Cornsucker fans expect to beat their non-conference opponents.
The FMQ
Well, not terrible this week, but some surprises and misses none the less….I'm happy that we improved the bank roll, but we could have done better. Let’s get right to it.
Ball State (+28) @ Clemson:
Take Ball State and the 28 for $30
WIN! Ball State covers the 28….Barely. Bank: $57
Sparty (-20) @ Central:
Take Sparty and lay the 20 for $30
WIN! Sparty had this covered in the 1st Quarter…Bank $57
USC (-26) @ Syracuse:
Take USC and lay the 26 for $50
Okay, had I LOOKED at the weather report, I would have laid off this game…Lose
Vandy (-3) @ Northwestern:
Take Vandy and lay the 3 for $40
WTF…I guess Vandy was more down than I thought and NWU is better than I thought…Lose
Louisiana Monroe (+31) @ Arkansas: Take Louisiana Monroe and the 31 points for $50
WIN! Should have bet more…I had a good feeling about this one: Bank $95
Air Force (+21) @ Michigan:
Take Air Force and the 21 for $30
WIN! What did I tell you? Bank: $57
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Take Vandy – LMU – USC for $18.50
Not even close…Might use the dog Parlay this week.
Starting Bank: $660
Total Win: $266
Bank: $926
Early Monday Picks:
Va Tech (-12) @ Pitt
Gophers (-3) vs. Western
Michigan (-45) vs. UMass
USC (-10) @ Stanford
Sparty (-4) vs. Domers
Friday, September 7, 2012
Air Force Friday
After starting out with a dismal 3-4 week against the spread, the FMQ has found new life in this week’s spreads and some insight gleaned from checking schedules of both teams that might be looking ahead to next week or are falling down this week from a letdown win or loss over Labor Day.
While it’s always good to be humble, I do believe we have a lot of favorable matchups this week that the boys in Vegas either weren’t thinking clearly on or they have just over looked. And without a lot of steam coming in this week due to it being the first week the NFL kicks off, the spreads haven’t move much. Without wasting any more time as to who I like and why I like them, let’s get to it!
This Week’s Picks:
Ball State (+28) @ Clemson: Call this a let down game (for Clemson) and a slight look ahead game (for Clemson). Clemson is certainly already getting ready for Florida State in 2 weeks and probably isn’t doing a lot of “Game Planning” for Ball State.
Take Ball State and the 28 for $30
Sparty (-20) @ Central: While I initially used the same logic here due to the fact that Sparty just won an emotional opener at home and plays the Domers next week, I really don’t think Central has any of what it takes to slow down Sparty this year. And Sparty knows not to let down to these guys. They’ve learned their lesson the hard way. So, screw insight and
Take Sparty and lay the 20 for $30
USC (-26) @ Syracuse: Northwestern and Syracuse shouldn’t have been as close as it was. That was a huge emotional loss for Syracuse. USC is going to find a rhythm against the Cuse’s relatively weak defense. It wouldn’t surprise me to see USC hang 50 on the Orange….
Take USC and lay the 26 for $50
Vandy (-3) @ Northwestern: I watched both of these teams last week. One team played much better than the other and got a few extra days rest. Call me silly, but I like the SEC smart guys over the B1G Smart guys in this one…
Take Vandy and lay the 3 for $40
Louisiana Monroe (+31) @ Arkansas: This is THE CLASSIC look ahead game AND you have John L. Smith coaching the Razorbacks. Alabama is up next on the docket and if John L has any chance of making the job permanent, he knows he needs to win that one. I think Arkansas runs the ball against LMU and tries to shorten the game making for fewer points and they are not going to show Alabama ANYTHING.
Take Louisiana Monroe and the 31 points for $50
Air Force (+21) @ Michigan: I am sticking to my guns and saying that Michigan won’t cover against this team. I believed it in the season preview and I believe it now. Of course, this is when Michigan usually kicks me in the ass and does something really stupid… like cover….
Take Air Force and the 21 for $30
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Take Vandy – LMU – USC for $18.50
Starting Bank: $918.50
Total Bet: $258.5
Bank: $660
While it’s always good to be humble, I do believe we have a lot of favorable matchups this week that the boys in Vegas either weren’t thinking clearly on or they have just over looked. And without a lot of steam coming in this week due to it being the first week the NFL kicks off, the spreads haven’t move much. Without wasting any more time as to who I like and why I like them, let’s get to it!
This Week’s Picks:
Ball State (+28) @ Clemson: Call this a let down game (for Clemson) and a slight look ahead game (for Clemson). Clemson is certainly already getting ready for Florida State in 2 weeks and probably isn’t doing a lot of “Game Planning” for Ball State.
Take Ball State and the 28 for $30
Sparty (-20) @ Central: While I initially used the same logic here due to the fact that Sparty just won an emotional opener at home and plays the Domers next week, I really don’t think Central has any of what it takes to slow down Sparty this year. And Sparty knows not to let down to these guys. They’ve learned their lesson the hard way. So, screw insight and
Take Sparty and lay the 20 for $30
USC (-26) @ Syracuse: Northwestern and Syracuse shouldn’t have been as close as it was. That was a huge emotional loss for Syracuse. USC is going to find a rhythm against the Cuse’s relatively weak defense. It wouldn’t surprise me to see USC hang 50 on the Orange….
Take USC and lay the 26 for $50
Vandy (-3) @ Northwestern: I watched both of these teams last week. One team played much better than the other and got a few extra days rest. Call me silly, but I like the SEC smart guys over the B1G Smart guys in this one…
Take Vandy and lay the 3 for $40
Louisiana Monroe (+31) @ Arkansas: This is THE CLASSIC look ahead game AND you have John L. Smith coaching the Razorbacks. Alabama is up next on the docket and if John L has any chance of making the job permanent, he knows he needs to win that one. I think Arkansas runs the ball against LMU and tries to shorten the game making for fewer points and they are not going to show Alabama ANYTHING.
Take Louisiana Monroe and the 31 points for $50
Air Force (+21) @ Michigan: I am sticking to my guns and saying that Michigan won’t cover against this team. I believed it in the season preview and I believe it now. Of course, this is when Michigan usually kicks me in the ass and does something really stupid… like cover….
Take Air Force and the 21 for $30
PARLAY!
3 Team Parlay pays 6 to 1.
Take Vandy – LMU – USC for $18.50
Starting Bank: $918.50
Total Bet: $258.5
Bank: $660
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Bammered....So to Speak
For those that can’t wait to get to the Hot Seat Mascot spirit lifter, Yost over at the M-Zone has already posted a healing photo for anyone that needs it before reading this…
After watching way too many repeats of last year’s games where Michigan literally made teams look silly (See Nebraska, Northwestern and some of the ohio Game) I was looking forward to this season with a sense of, “Hey, these coaches are smart! They’re pouring over what we did last season that worked, adding a wrinkle or two here and there and getting these kids ready to play.” I never in a million years dreamed I would have to live through the Domer game (again) where Michigan would try all the same crap (on offense) that didn’t work last year.
But alas, they did.
So what, exactly, makes a coach think he can get a workable offense by continuing to try to put square pegs in round holes? That’s what I felt like I was watching. I’m not taking anything away from the SEC and almost started this post with the thought that, “OK, I get it. The SEC is just plain good and the talent level is way above everyone else.” But I didn’t because I don’t believe that the kids on that field Saturday wearing the Maize and Blue were given the best opportunities to showcase their talents and do what they do best.
Maybe that’s sour grapes talking…I dunno. I do know that Michigan can play better than that and they just didn’t look ready. But this is what really keeps me awake at night: What if this is the team we see all season?
I scared you now, didn’t I?
Best takeaways from the game: Only 1 major injury.
Worst takeaways from the game: That injury happened to Blake Countess and he’s done for the season with a torn ACL…
Now I’m really bummed….
But, in all reality, this loss was not unexpected and it will give the coaches an opportunity to coach this group up. But the coaches need to take a long hard look at themselves as well and decide what they want this group to be: a Bowl Team that other teams are scared to play or a team with a great offensive system and lousy results…
The Rest of the Mess
Vandy – Cocks: I really believe Vandy got ripped off in the last two minutes of this game when it was clear that pass interference was not called on the Gamecocks on 4th down. You have to let them play, yes. But you have to let them play somewhat fairly as well….The Ole Ball Coach escapes with a W…
Sparty – Boy’s State: Well, the FMQ called this one and for a minute I really thought Boy’s State had turned a corner and there was a potential for Sparty to suffer a humiliating defeat at home…However, Le’Veon Bell is not only the real deal, he’s 240 pounds of un-recruited real deal that bulldozes the competition. I don’t think I saw the first guy to Bell bring him down all night. That’s scary….
Domers - JEEZ I HATE THESE GUYS - One of the Service Academies they Should beat: Okay – so Navy REALLY sucks this year and the Domers won in Ireland where they should win. I think we’ll see a better test of the Domers this week in South Bend.
PSU - Ohio: That’s Ohio U. Now, the Bobcats are pretty good and the pre-season hype on them was that if they somehow managed to beat PSU, they could potentially run the table. So, before we all go throwing another shovel full of dirt on the PSU program, they were beat by a decent team. Here’s to hoping the kids that stayed can win a few more…
Hokies - Bumble Bees: Wow…Great game and a great way to wrap up the weekend. Beamer’s Boys find a way to pull it out and that’s the kind of game that you can build some momentum….I don’t feel like a Michigan repeat with the Hokies right now would be a good thing…
Idle Thoughts From Saturday
-I hate Nick Saban…Really, I do.
-Heismann hopes are all but gone for a lot of hopefuls…
-DeRob is one of them…
-Unless he somehow turns into Superman for the rest of the season….
-Last guy to win the Heismann on a team with a losing record: Hornung in 1956 from you know where.
-Okay, in case you didn’t know: The Domers. Season record: 2-8
- Let’s see, Jeremy Gallon played okay.
-I think Gardner is going to catch a lot of passes - in the B1G.
-Against Bama? They are like playing a semi-pro team…
-Thank God for Kovacs….
-Were the officials against us?
-I don’t know when the game lost me, but somewhere when the Bama score said 31 was an approximate, “I give up…”
-But, yes, as was texted, it would have been a great comeback.
-At this rate, we won’t go 0.500.
-The B1G is too good this year.
-And I don’t want a waiver from the NCAA to get to a bowl game.
-Michigan should never do that….
-Obligatory Uniform Comment: Why? I mean, really, WHY?
-Isn’t tradition enough for some people?
-Michigan is giving 21 against Air Force.
-I think I will take the academy and the points this week….
-Maybe opening with a cream puff isn’t such a bad idea….
-One word for that: APP STATE
-Okay, that’s two words…
More Idle Thoughts from the Weekend
-Tigers – Don’t look now! 1 GB first place Chicago….
- I wish the Tigers could score a couple of runs when Verlander is pitching…Sheesh…
-Lions: I going to say 9-7. Jus’ cuz….I can.
-But 10-6 wouldn’t surprise me with their schedule.
-Why bring up the Lions? I dunno…Just thinking they have to be getting close…
The Hot Seat
Here we are! The first 2012 Hot Seat Mascot vote! I really didn’t think the Hot Seat Mascot would be something I would continue to do after Rich Rod got canned…I really thought this was below the reading level of the fans of the MMQ. However, after talking to several fans over the weekend, I was surprised to hear that it’s become one of their favorite parts of the blog! Imagine that…Having to vote on a bunch of scantily clad women in the hopes of seeing her photo adorn the side of our little ole blog and that be a popular thing. Must be the kids that are enjoying it….
The Pre-Season Mascot nominee, Ms. Jessica Dorrel is going to have to go up against another Delilah that brought down a notable sports figure: Brett Favre. Jenn Sterger worked in the Jets organization in more than one role, or so it would seem. Long story short, er, well, I guess it was Brett’s long story or something that he “sexted” to Jenn and she went to management. Maybe she had seen better? Whatever the case: Here’s your Week #1 Hot Seat Mascot – Jenn Sterger.
1. Kelly, Brian: Until someone, anyone unseats him or he beats Michigan, he has to be number 1.
2. Tedford: Only Hot Seat Coach to lose in Week 1!! But I can’t move him above Kelly.
3. Derek Dooley: No way he survives another bowl-less year…Much less another year of sub 0.500 SEC ball…4. Mack Brown: I know, I know. But you didn’t think they would fire Joe Pa, either. Believe the MMQ when I say that his retirement or canning is nearer than you think…
5. Randy Edsall: Maryland is going to start thinking that with the ACC as screwed up as it is, why aren’t we winning more football games?
6. Kevin Wilson: But can Indiana really expect much more? Really?
7. Mark Richt: Just because he will lose some game he’s not supposed to and the annual “Fire Mark Richt” bandwagon will get a spit polish and a coat of paint…
8. Dabo Sweeney: Either find a defense or find a new job….
9. Frank Spaziani: BC is a proud school that doesn’t get a lot of attention…
10. Tubberville: Yeah, he’ll have a defense, but those people at Texas Tech are used to FIREWORKS!!!!!
FMQ Betting Results:
Well, it wasn’t the best starting week ever, but it CERTAINLY wasn’t the worst ever, either. We’re down after week 1, but it could have been a lot worse. I’ve seen some teams and have a better idea who will and won’t cover this season. A quick review of the action over the weekend:
South Carolina @ Vandy (+7): Take Vandy and the points for $40.
I loved this result even though a Vandy win would have been better.
WIN! Bank $76
Navy (+17) vs. Notre Dame (In IRELAND): Take Navy and the points for $50.
Okay, Domers. Screw me here. But, this doesn’t do anything for Kelly’s Hot Seat: LOSE
Clemson Tigers @ Auburn (+3.5): Take Auburn and the 3.5 for $70
Huh, I really thought Auburn playing in Georgia would be better. LOSE
Arkansas State @ Oregon (-35): Take the Ducks and lay the 35 for $35
I’m done laying points. Seriously.
LOSE
Marshall @ West Virginia (-24): Take WVU and lay the 24 for $35.
Okay, I love laying points when the team does what they are supposed to do.
WIN $66.5
Boy’s State @ MSU (-7): Take Boy’s State and the 7 for $40.
I love getting points…Two things can happen – the team can win or cover and it’s good for me!
Win: Bank $76
Alabama vs. Michigan (+14) (JerryWorld): Take Michigan and the points for $30.
Ugh…I hate having to look at the FMQ when Michigan loses AND they don’t cover. LOSE
Starting BANK: $700
TOTAL WIN: $218.50
NEW BANK: $918.50
Monday Morning Takes (Taking the first team listed):
Ball State (+28) @ Clemson
Sparty (-23.5) @ Central
USC (-27) @ Syracuse
Air Force (+21) @ Michigan
Wagers and other games announced on Friday…
Enjoying the Ride…MMQ