Friday, October 20, 2017

FMQ Week #8 - PSU Has Always Been Special

Can You Believe The Balls On This Guy???
Just so everyone’s straight – Pitino has been or was:
1.     Under NCAA investigation at Hawaii in the 80’s
2.    Had sex on a restaurant table with someone besides his wife (but only lasted about 30 seconds!)
3.    Was the Head Coach of a team on already on NCAA probation for hosting stripper and hooker parties
4.    Was discovered to be and named as “Coach Number #2” in FBI Indictment documents that was speaking to Gatto multiple times during Bowen’s recruitment.
AAAAAAAAANNNNDDD – What do you do when you’re fired for cause?  Sue Adidas of course!
I’m actually not sure who the sleazier player is in all of this…Pitino or the lawyer that actually believes there’s a case here for Pitino somewhere.  Or maybe it’s a ploy to get discovery evidence and the recorded phone calls that incriminate Pitino…
From Thamel (yahoo sports)
If he knew about the payments to Bowen, he’s brazen enough to blatantly flout NCAA rules while Louisville was still serving its penalties related to the escort scandal. If he didn’t know about the payments to Bowen, then he clearly had no control of a program that violating NCAA rules left and right under his watch.
Pitino clearly prefers the latter to the former. And as the Adidas lawsuit shows, he’s willing to go to great lengths to try to argue that position
Whatever, Pitino’s lack of any humility or self-blame is galling.  It is, as the late, great Bob Ufer would say, “They had the Audacity, the Unmitigated gall to tear down that banner!!!”
THE HIT 20 Years Later:  Why The Targeting Rule Came Into Being
The short version – I remember sitting on a barstool out in Borrego Springs, California with college roommate, tailgater and super fan TJH (LONG STORY – Ask me sometime) watching this game and when I saw this hit, I KNEW one of these guys, or perhaps both, wasn’t walking away from it
The Hit:  15 Years Later – The Long Version
The B1G network did a nice follow up 15 years later about the hit, the surgery Taylor required and the Grade 3 Concussion that Stephenson received as a result.
But they’re both still in football.  It just gets in you and it won’t let go…
But I’m glad targeting is a rule, I just wish it was properly called and enforced.
And the fact that this happened 20 years ago and I can remember it like it was yesterday is kind of weird.  I can’t remember what I had for breakfast, but I can recall a lot of what happened on “Judgement Day” and Woodson running over people on offense, Griese having a big day, and Michigan just routing the “Paper Tiger” #2 team in the country. 34-8.  And I didn’t even have to look it up….
The stage was now set…
For 25 Years, PSU Has Been Special….
Unless You Happen to be a PSU Fan…Why am I confident?  This is part of the reason….
When Michigan is NOT in the Top 10 and Penn State IS in the Top 10, we have a 5-1 record against the Nittany Lions with our only loss to them being Rich Rod's 3-9 team in 2008, when #3 Penn State beat unranked Michigan 46-17. These weren't fringe Top 10 UM teams either; none of the 5 Michigan wins came when Michigan was in the Top 15, their average ranking was below where we will be this week at #19. 
List:
  • 2007: Unranked Michigan defeats #10 Penn State 14-9 
  • 2005: Unranked Michigan defeats #8 Penn State 27-25
  • 1999: #16 Michigan defeats #6 Penn State 31-27
  • 1998: #22 Michigan defeats #9 Penn State 27-0
  • 1993: #18 Michigan defeats #7 Penn State 21-13
Overall, Michigan is 6-2 against Top Ten Penn State teams, including a 3-1 record in Happy Valley. 
So, okay, yeah, I looked all that up.  But I know Michigan has owned them. 
Who Will We Be Talking About On Monday?
Like Week #7, Week #8 has the potential to create some interesting conversations.  USC goes into South Bend pretty banged up and the Domers are actually playing really good football (especially on Defense).  USC hasn’t been the same team since they won the Rose, playing close game against Utah and losing to Wash State.  Unfortunately, I think we’re talking Domers and CFP in the same sentence Monday.  But I’ll still take USC and the points (see below).. 
IF THEY WIN, we’ll be sick of hearing about Penn State as well. On the flip side, if Michigan pulls it off, we’re discussing Michigan and “controlling their own destiny.”
I might like Texas to beat one school from Oklahoma this year, and OSU is on the docket.  The shorthorns could be spoilers…
Besides the Death Star?  Good question.  I think LSU must’ve had really key people out of the Troy game because that loss just doesn’t make any sense at this point.  I hate to say, “Re-set you’re thinking” regarding LSU, but there’s no way to explain it.  LSU knocked off Florida and then came back against a really good Auburn team at home.  So is it just everyone in the SEC deciding to “suck less” when the time comes to play decent football?  I guess it’ll all get sorted out.  For now, let’s assume that Georgia, LSU and Auburn are still legit and all get a shot at Bama (assuming Georgia wins East).
All is does is make all of them harder to handicap.
THE FMQ
So, what did the FMQ in this week?   THE GOD DAMN MICHIGAN – IU Over/Under.  Going to OT put the number right at 47.  House WINS!

 A Win is a Win, Baby!!
Other than that, it was a great picking week, but we didn’t score much cash based on the units bet.  Week #8 doesn’t get any easier as we pretty much know who everyone is at this point and spreads are more easily defined and backed up with data.  Hard to find an edge in any game this week.   
On to this week’s picks:
Week # 8 is a coin flip week.  I don’t have any strong weeks historically in week #8 It’s almost as if we need to take a break or start looking closer at the over/unders. Of course, I just got burnt on one of those, so we’ll just flip coins.
Maryland @ Wiscy (-24):  I really didn’t think the Terps were this bad.  They beat what’s turning into a decent Texas team and then promptly lost their QB and 2nd string QB.  Pickings are slim after that.  But I thought their defense would be better with Durkin steering the ship.  Wiscy is a grind you down team and 24 seems like a lot, but they are home.  Coin Flip - Wiscy.. 
Take Wiscy and lay the 24 for $25
Iowa @ Northwestern (PK):  I kind of hate Pick-Em games.  All you have to do is pick the winner, but this is a tough one to pick.  Northwestern faded against Wiscy, came storming back in the 4th quarter to cover.  I know you can’t go week to week, but I really don’t know who to pick.  Coin Flip - Iowa!  
Take Iowa for $25
OSU @ Texas (+7):  Hermann’s gonna beat someone good this season.  He’s running out of shots, but I have a feeling that he may be able to close the deal on this one, or at least keep it close on the 40 Acres. 
Take the Shorthorns and the 7 for $30
Purdue @ Rutgers (+8):  Rutgers won a B1G Game on the Road last week.  And that screwed me up.  I really felt that the Illini were the better team, but I was wrong.  Purdue is a very good team statistically right now and they should bring Rutgers back down to Earth.
Take Purdue and lay the 8 for $50
Pitt @ Duke (-8):  How did Pitt get so bad so fast??  Narduzzi was being rumored for bigger and better jobs last season and now he’s probably glad that Pitt is tired of hiring coaches.  Duke is good enough to cover the number.
Take Duke and lay the 8 for $40
Illinois @ The Gophers (-13.5):  That’s a lot of points.  Minnesota may trot out a different QB this week and I think the Illini can keep in within a couple of scores, especially as the Gophers can’t really stop anyone.
Take the Illini and the 13.5 for $30
Indiana @ Sparty (-7):  Hmmmm?  Is this spread based on what Michigan did against both these teams?  Indiana is not that bad and had the ball bounced a little differently, they would have beat Michigan. Sparty OTOH, is probably going to get tripped up this season.   Coin Flip – Indiana!
Take Indiana and the 7 for $25
Tennessee @ Bama (-33):  Bama has done so-so against the spread this season (3-4).  However, the ones they are covering have all been over 30 points!  Is that a clue?  No, Tennessee being one of the shittiest teams in the SEC is a bigger clue.    
Take Bama and lay the 33 for $50
Auburn @ Arkansas (+13):  Auburn has me scratching my head a lot.  First, they roll some bad SEC teams and I thought LSU was a bad team, but then they come out in the 2nd half and tank.  What will they do on the road at a really bad Arkansas?  Coin Flip
Take Auburn and lay the 13 for $30
USC @ Domers (-3.5):  Tough game, tough spread.  I like the Domers at home, but 3.5 is a tough number to lay in what may be a tight game.  USC has played a lot of tight ones already this season.  I like the dog here.
Take USC and the 3.5 for $25
Michigan @ PSU (-12.5 MONEYLINE:  Michigan - $320):  A double figure spread in this game?  With Michigan’s defense, I don’t think PSU will be able to “start fast” or get any separation on Michigan in this game.  And if Michigan is still in it in the 4th quarter, PSU will be playing tight.  Of course, they played a tight game in Iowa City this season already and won.  But Iowa covered! 
Take Michigan and the 12.5 for $25
MONEYLINE:  Michigan 20
PARLAY!
3 Bet/Team Parlay:   6-1

Purdue – Bama - Duke:   $50

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