Friday, September 29, 2017

FMQ Week #5

I Should Really Wait To Hit “Post”
In what was an almost perfectly posted-post this past Wednesday, Louisville’s brass got it’s collective act together in the face of an FBI investigation and put Jurich and Pitino on leave, as they have to wait 10 days to officially fire them after they inform them that they are being fired for cause.  Just the way legal contracts work.  And that happened about 5 minutes after I hit “Post”.
And the hits just keep on coming!  Now, we have proof positive that Pitino lied his ass off when he stated he was shocked.  Pitino has been identified as “Coach #2” in the indictments that had multiple conversations with Adidas VP Gotta leading up to Bowen accepting Louisville’s offer.
Is There An Easy Way To Avoid All This?
For a great summary of the FBI story and indictments, read the next link.  It’s a lunchtime read, (lengthy, but worth it)
If you happen to be on the can “dropping a Pitino” or otherwise indisposed and want The Reader’s Digest abridged version, here you go:
In the continuing fall-out of what I’m going to now refer to as the “Beginning of the End”, quite a few commenters and talking heads have all stated the same thing:  Everyone knew what was going on, the sleezy guys continued to figure out ways to get away with it and the straight and narrow guys just complained about it.  Well, the complainers may finally have their day and Universities and the NCAA may soon have to change their stripes on “Amateurism” in the very near future.
What’s clear at this point is that Shoe companies are willing to expose executive level personnel (with “drops in the bucket” cash) to very risky behavior in order to secure the “wink-wink, nudge-nudge” rights to individual players and the potential money they can make once they reach the NBA for shoe endorsements.
And student athletes, parents, coaches and advisors are willing to take those drops of cash (6 figures or so) for their one and done season.  And in the meantime, the United States FBI is spending a lot of taxpayer dollars arresting all the cogs in the machine that up to this point, were getting this transaction done, albeit “illegally”.  And were going to waste more taxpayer money jailing these “criminals” for these crimes. 
All due to one stupid rule.
All this investigation will probably accomplish is making the inevitable more challenging for the wanna’ be rule breakers moving forward.  These people, on both sides of the trough, are going to find a way to get this done; they will find a way to transfer money from the “we want you on our team” side to the “we need or want our money now” side.  There’s just too much cash involved on the giving side (shoe and athletic companies) and too many needy parents or guardians on the other side not to get things secured for all parties involved.  Money, as they say, always finds a way…I see a couple of scenarios playing out in the near future.
In one scenario, the NCAA and ultimately, Universities, will finally wake up and recognize the error of their ways and move forward into the 21st century, abandoning the idea of amateurism altogether.  I have opined constantly that if a student athlete can get an endorsement deal from a shoe company, clothing company, golf ball company, baseball or softball bat company, Gatorade, WHATEVER, they should be allowed to use their likeness and get the endorsement.  Allow the money to be deferred until after graduation, but it’s there waiting for you when you get your degree.  Non-athletes can start their own business in college.  If sports is what this student athlete’s profession is going to be, let them start earning now.  You are purposefully exploiting student athletes by not letting them earn money on their own.  I’m more or less proposing that Unversities adopt the Olympic model here…
IF everyone can agree and allow this to happen, everybody gets what they want and the NCAA still has a product.  Maybe even a better product.  Students may stay in school longer if they have the luxury of a million-dollar endorsement behind them vs. bolting for the NBA or NFL.  Will every student be able to get an endorsement deal?  Of course not.  But not every student-athlete is going to make a living in sports, either.   
Another way this could go is the NBA and NFL (that’s floundering so bad it’s mind boggling) could startup development leagues for kids that don’t want to go to college but just want to play for pay.  Or they can go play in Europe.  After a couple of seasons, they get called up from the farm team to the big show, pending they are skilled enough. 
If this scenario goes down, the universities and NCAA lose their product (the One and Done rule has already damaged college hoops).  Attendance and viewership would drop dramatically.  Of course, ticket prices would go down, and overall revenue would drop, also.
I thought the results of the Ed O’Bannon case would have had a broader impact at this point.  If you recall:  The court ruled that a player “owns his likeness” and the schools cannot sell or market that likeness without said player’s permission.  And if they did use it, compensation was in order.  In my mind, that opened the door for student athletes to eventually sell their university jersey signed for cash that the student athlete could keep.
Of course, that wasn’t the case.  The NCAA and Universities have since stopped using former player’s likenesses in video games and marketing material and that’s about it.  They continue to exploit current marquis players for their own gain. 
Big Universities and the NCAA need to change…And quickly. 
While I don’t personally like the guy, Jay Bilas agrees with me:
THE FMQ
Nuts.
I hate Week #4 in College Football.  This is the FMQ.  A losing week is inevitable, it’s just the way I lost.  TCU and Georgia were big surprises.  I knew Georgia was better than advertised but TCU (4-7 in 2016) is the team that probably surprised me more.  Oh well, to gamble means you’re going to lose every now and then. 

Still in The Green!!!!  But if Iowa would have just batted that pass down!
On the bright side, we’re still above $1,000 and just need to get right in the head
On to this week’s picks:
Week #5 is another tricky week for betting college football.  I’m going to be extra critical of my picks and maybe bring the amount down somewhat.
USC @ Wash State (+5.5 ):  Hmm, Mike Leach’s name hasn’t been in the National News a lot and an upset here would definitely rectify that.  I foresee a close game and while the Zoos may not pull off the win, they might keep it close enough to cover…
Take Wash State and the 5.5 for $30
Maryland @ the Gophers (-11.5):  Maryland Student Newspaper Help Wanted Ad:  Anyone with eligibility that is a full-time student that can pass a football, please come to the Maryland Practice field on Monday.  Durkin cannot – I repeat – CANNOT catch a break and loses the 2nd string QB for the season.  Maryland was looking to go for maybe 7-8 wins this season and now they desperately need a QB.  I don’t think they find one this week….
Take The Gophers and lay the 11.5 for $40
Northwestern @ Wiscy (-14.5):  I was hoping this line would move a little.  It did. The wrog way.  It opened at 13.5 in some places.  This is not a great Fitzgerald Kitty Kat team.  However, as soon as I think that, the kitties usually bite me in the ass.  What I once thought would be a game for the West, it now seems like Wiscy will roll in this one.... 
Take Wiscy and lay the 14.5 for $20
Indiana @ PSU (-18):  Another B1G spread against a B1G team that’s can keep a game close.  Granted, IU is better at keep it close at home, but can keep it close none the less.  PSU coming off an emotional win at Iowa may not be ready for IU coming in to town. I know Saquon and Trace will be connecting, but .
Take Indiana and the 18 for $25
Florida State @ Wake Forest (+8):  An ACC Home Dog…Against a team that doesn’t have a QB.  And Wake Forest can play defense.  I’m not sure FSU is ready to pack it in yet, but there are definitely fans that think without a QB, Jimbo Fisher can’t coach his way out of a wet paper bag…
Take Wake Forest and the 8 for $20
Iowa @ Sparty (-3):  So the bookies are telling me this is a neutral site pick-em game?  That seems extreme as I think – THINK  - Iowa is the better team here.  Sparty has turnover issues and seems hell bent on taking themselves out of games they may have a chance in.  I’ll take the visiting Hawkeyes and the points.
Take Iowa and the 3 for $20
Ole Miss @ Alabama  (-28):  Another gift?  Ole Miss is a shell of its former self.  Taking Bama and laying points this season has been the right play for every game, I think.  I’m here to make money this week.
Take Bama and lay the 28 for $30
Clemson @ Va Tech (+5):  In arguably the biggest game of the weekend, resurging Va Tech is only getting 5 at home against the reigning National Champs.  I’m thinking that Va Tech and Coach Fuente can be competitive, but staying within a score against Clemson seems like a very tall order indeed….
Take Clemson and lay the 5 for $30
PARLAY!
3 Bet/Team Parlay:   6-1

Clemson – Alabama - Gophers:   $50

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