Can We All Agree that Scheduling Air Force Is a Bad Idea?

Okay, a new way to look at what happened over the weekend with our Michigan Wolverines:

The Good

Michigan is 3-0!!!

The Defense ranks 5^th in the nation in Total Defense

Tied for 2^nd with Defensive TD’s (3 total)

The Defense has only had to defend the red zone 4 times in 3 games…

Quinn Nordin MAKES FIELD GOALS

The Bad

Michigan ranks 72 in Total Offense

Michigan ranks tied at 51 in Turnover Margin

Michigan ranks 102 in 3^rd downs converted (0.340 efficiency)

The UGLY

Michigan is 1-9 in Red Zone scoring ( 1 TD)

It’s NOT ALL SPEIGHT (Even though a lot of it is on Speight)

Michigan has to go on the road to Purdue that’s pretty good on offense, but not stellar on defense.

What’s it all mean?

Well, Michigan CLEARLY HAS A Kicker that made 5 Figgies on Saturday, tying a record held by several kickers at Michigan.  Single Game Figgie’s all time:

Player                        FG       Year   Opponent

Mike Gillete              5          1988   Minnesota

JD Carlson               5          1980  Illinois

KC Lopata                5          2008   Minnesota

Quinn Nordin          5          2017  Airforce

I couldn’t remember KC Lopata and then I remembered that was during the Rich Rod years (a lot of brain cells destroyed that season.)

Why all the numbers this morning?  Cause the MMQ’s alter EGO is NERVOUS and numbers make him feel better.  Believe it or not:  Even bad numbers have a way of making the MMQ feel better. 

But Mr. MMQ, How can a 72 rank in Total Offense and 1 TD in the Red Zone over three games possibly make you FEEL BETTER???

I can explain.  1^st, let’s look at those outstanding defensive numbers along side the awful offensive stats.  For Michigan to be ranked 5^th with an offense that’s ranked 72 (67 point differential!) is amazing.  Take a lot of comfort in the fact that regardless of how good your defense might be, a 67 point differential from offense to defense rarely happens!  Normally, to be THAT GOOD on defense, your offense has to at least control the ball, manage the game, and contribute to scoring.

But MR. MMQ – The OFFENSE AIN’T DOING THAT RIGHT NOW!

Exactly.  Meaning Michigan has a REALLY, REALLY Great Defense right now, by the numbers.  And, normally, if your defense is that good and it gives your offense more touches, by rule the offense should get better.

Mr. MMQ – Don’t take this the wrong way, but have you taken up drinking on Monday Morning’s?  This offense has had three games to “Get Better” and so far, all they’ve done is flounder around.

I agree – to a certain extent.  However, it’s not all on the offense and the players on offense.  I suspected the play calling on Saturday was a major culprit as I sat watching with AP.  And sure enough, I called a series of plays from my seat in the 74^th row EXACTLY as it went down.  That’s a problem if a fan can call exactly what the offense is gonna do.  Drevno and Jimmy are either doing this on purpose to force things (especially with the line) and to make them execute against defenses that are undersized and maybe not that good, or they figure they can just get away with it for the time being and lean on the “D”.  Michigan’s brain trust may want to get two or three game films out there making everyone think they’re going to do one thing and then execute something entirely different in subsequent games…

MR. MMQ: I guess you’re speaking to gamesmanship and strategy.  What about next Saturday?  Purdue scares the Bejesus out of me…They don’t call them Spoliermakers for nothing…

Totally agree.  Michigan opening up as a 10 point ROAD FAVORITE is not the sort of thing I’m comfortable with.  Especially given the fact that Purdue nearly beat Louisvillle (neutral site, and maybe not as impressive as we thought based on what Clemson did) and DESTROYED a Mizzou team that’s kind of a mess.  The Spoilers never the less have won two games decisively with a LOT OF OFFENSE.  Michigan will be FORCED TO ANSWER IN KIND on the offensive side of the ball if they want to win.  And I do think this offense is more than capable if they can fix a couple of things and get the right play calling behind them.

Mr. MMQ – You HAVE NOT really made me feel better.  What’s the Take Away?   

Look – A lot of you know that I’m a gambler and as a gambler, in poker for example, you can sometimes make the exact read you need to make and fire the right bet only to have a guy call you and hit his two-outer against you to take down the pot.  Sooner or later, however, there’s going to be regression to the mean and that same sucker is going to pad your bottom line quite nicely.

It’s just the nature of the game.

Right now, I’m looking for a huge regression to the mean on offense.  An explosion on the offense when the coaches guess right against the other team and everything looks easy…And I hope it’s coming soon. 

This weekend would be a great time. 

Let’s Go Blue!

The Rest of the Mess

NEW SECTION:  YHMA – You Have My Attention

Clemson:  I was sort of believing, but now I’m really believing that Clemson is going to be back in the mix to defend their National Title.  Kelly Bryant is a REALLY GOOD QB and I’m thinking that Clemson hasn’t lost anything with the departure of Watson.  Dismantling Louisville and getting L. Jackson to make as many mistakes as he did was a surprise, but it was even more surprising watching what Clemson did offensively to a suspect Louisville defense.  Clemson is the ACC favorite right now, and I don’t think that’s a knee-jerk.

Oklahoma State:  Mason Rudolph didn’t play much in the 2^nd half due to the fact that he led the Cowboys to 49 friggin’ first half points against Pitt!  I really thought A:  Pitt was better than that and B:  I wasn’t completely sold on Okie State.  I stand corrected and I’m really looking forward to Bedlam 1 & 2 as both Oklahoma and the Cowboys should be the 1 & 2 teams in the Big iiX come the end of the season.

Va Tech:  Wow…The Hokies also blew out what used to be a decent East Carolina team and hung 64 points on them in what was a very complete game. (over 600 yards of offense for the Hokies).  The ACC looks very ripe for the taking with only Duke standing in the Hokies way… 

CUD – Complete, Unmitigated Disasters!!!

Nebraska:   Northern Illinois is no cake walk and the Huskies are the real deal.  They’ve got their fair share of B1G Pelts over the years, but this one comes at a really bad time for Mike Riley.  Nebraska has started the season 1-2 going into conference play only 3 times in its history, and two of those are under Riley.  What’s worse:  Right now, the Cornsuckers are only projected to win 2 out of their last 9 games.  That’s bad for Riley, bad for Eichrost (Husker AD who fired Crowd Hating Pelini before hiring Riley) and even worse for Cornsuker Fans that have not had a taste of the B1G Championship in a long time. This team is technically out of the CFP and needs a lot of help at this point to make a bowl….

UCLA:  How bad is UCLA??  Pretty bad, especially on defense.  It has to be difficult for a Coach like Mora to have the weapon in Josh Rosen that can put his team on his shoulders and score at will, but to then have a team like Memphis more or less do the same thing to you.  This was the darling upset pick of the weekend and the FMQ laid off it, but I should have seen the writing on the wall.  The Bruins are effectively out of the CFP race with this loss and may be another team struggling to find wins at the end of the season, regardless of how well Rosen performs the rest of the way…

Tennessee:  You didn’t See That Coming??  The play calling late in the Tennessee Florida game had to drive the knowledgeable and average Cremesicle fan absolutely insane.  Tennessee’s tailback Kelly is arguably their best player and he barely got a touch in the 4^th quarter.  In what looked like an obvious get it into position to go for the tie, McElwain gambled big and went for the whole enchilada by letting Franks throw deep to score 6 as time expired.  Tennessee has lost more weird games than any team I can think of over the last two seasons.

LSU:  Is Ogeron’s Seat Really Hot??  3^rd game of 1^st full season after interim 8 full games last season…Right now, LSU is arguably the most TALENT – LADEN team of the SEC West.  Great athletes on both sides of the ball, just can’t execute worth a crap on offense.  And when the offense isn’t on the field, MSU was able to pick apart and destroy the better than average LSU defense.  Not sure what to make of LSU right now, but beating Bama (and Auburn) look like huge hurdles. 

Boston College:  Adazzio’s seat didn’t get any cooler and BC is off to a 1-2 start….

BAYLOR:  0-3?  0-3?  Nuff said….

CBOTL – Come Back Off the Ledge

These are losses that looked bad, but there’s no reason to panic and sell the season duckets yet.

Louisville:  It’s make no mistake time for Louisville after they lost in incredibly convincing fashion to Clemson (see Above).  Petrino can still cause problems in the ACC and after this loss, expect to see a look from Louisville that is “not playing scared and playing with house money.”

Texas:  Two losses takes you out of the CFP discussion, but taking the 4^th ranked team to OT isn’t a bad loss and Longhorn fans should feel good about Herman’s week #3 progress.   Of course, Shorthorn fans are not a very reasonable or rash group of people and I expect some opening game boos at the next home game…

PGL – Pretty Good Loss

CMU:  Going up to Syracuse and losing in the Dome is nothing to be ashamed of.  MACTION Awaits! 

CSU:  The Rams went into Tuscaloosa loose and ready and somehow found a way to hang 23 points and 400 yards on the Tide Defense, which should give everyone that wants to see Bama go down a lot of hope…

WWB – We Won, But…We Should Be Worried

USC:  Suddenly, with Stanford losing, the Texas and Stanford victories are a little less impressive.  And the Rubbers were lucky to beat Texas, forcing a turnover in the 2^nd OT….

Domers:  Beat a pushover BC team and is going to have its hands full for the next couple of weeks.  Expect some tight Domer match-ups, starting this week with Sparty. 

Michigan:  Still here.  Michigan needs to fix the offensive problems and they need to do it quickly as they start conference play. 

Gatorland:  Already discussed a little, but everyone in the SEC East is racing to a 4-4 Conference record.  Florida could have easily lost that game.

And the Rest…

Cincinnati vs. Miami (not that one):  Cinci came off a bad Michigan loss and rebounded to hand Miami their 2^nd loss.  I’m a bearcat fan for the rest of the season….

Minnesota vs. MTSU:  MTSU got ROWED OVER in what was supposed to be a tighter game and had several talking heads stating that MTSU had upset potential in the Twin Cities.  Not a Chance!  Minnesota is about to head into the “YHMA” category real soon!!

Purdue vs. Mizzou:  Brohm has Purdue playing with confidence and a LOT OF OFFENSE.  Purdue just became a scary game on the schedule. 

Wiscy vs BYU:  Wow.  Wiscy is just good this season and is looking like an easy candidate to win the B1G West, unless the Gophers and Spoilers can make some noise in the West.

The 5 Stages of Slappy Fan Grief

1. Denial and Isolation –Shorthorns, Cornsuckers, and anyone else with two losses going into conference play.  Everyone knows that 1-2 teams rarely bounce back in Conference, but here’s to that magic elixir known as “Hopium”!!   
2. ANGER –UCLA, Bruin fans will not be happy with Mora and are going to want to see a change after this season if the Bruins keep losing like they did against Memphis.  . 
3. Bargaining –The Entire SEC West… Just beat Bama and we’ll call it a good season...
4. Depression –Michigan – All Alone 3-0 but without a defense can be depressing in a weird way....    
5.  Acceptance – Getting close to a few fan bases down in this area….

Ref Rants!

No ref rants immediately come to mind this week…IF you ever feel there’s one the MMQ should comment on, shoot me a text or an e-mail prior to Monday!

Idle Thoughts from Saturday

-Easier time getting in the lot with an earlier arrival.

-Of course, 2^nd game and it is Air Force

-Why did Michigan schedule Air Force?

-Right…DB

-Good crowd around the tailgate.

-Cleveland connection in the house!

-Thanks to everyone who swung by!

-12:00 kick doesn’t leave a lot of room for socializing.

-Parachuters…

-Fly-Over

-I guess there are SOME benefits to Air Force

-But it’s not enough to make me want to schedule them again

-Here we go

-Jeez…Same offensive problems, different week.

-Is there no solution to what ails the Offense?

-Thank God for Quinn

-I feel like this is going to be a recurring theme this game/season

-TGFQ – again….

-At least the defense is playing well against the Triple Option

-One of the hardest offenses to defend…

-This game is too tight at the half.

-Uh-oh – DPJ has some room to work!

-Thank you DPJ!!!

-And still the problems continue.

-TGFQ

-Crawford – you have to catch that ball on 3^rd down.

-Of course, Jimmy could try throwing on 1^st or 2^nd…

-There’s more to the offense than execution.

-TGFQ

-Drevno and Harbaugh need to use their imagination.

-I don’t feel like Michigan is 3-0

-I feel like there’s danger lurking in the B1G…

-And I know I’m not alone in that sentiment

THE MMQ’s “I DON’T NEED A COMMITTEE!”

Will return when the Committee makes their first ranking!

The Hot Seat

Still looking for Hot Coach’s wives suggestions!

This week, we’ll take a look at Jimmy’s latest wife (and hopefully his last) and add her to the list! 

ZAPPED List

We’ll keep track of who’s gone as the season progresses….

1. “Holier than Thou” Hugh Freeze 

Electric Chair of Death Seat!

1. Riley – Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers DESPERATELY WANT to matter again in football.  The AD came out this AM with a “vote of confidence but is angry and frustrated” with the team’s performance.  Sooner or later, there’s gotta be a fall guy in Licoln…
2. Kelly– Beating a team you’re supposed to beat doesn’t get Kelly out of the ECOD.  Beat someone you’re not supposed to and we’ll revisit

The Hot Seat

1. Mulzahn:  When you need a 4^th quarter score to beat FCS Mercer at home?  Hot Seat #1.
2. Sumlin:  This won’t end well….
3. Bret Bielema:  What is wrong with the SEC West?  Speaking of which
4. Ogeron:  What a disaster.  Was Les advising you during the game?  Also – Is Alleva feeling any of this heat with the “hasty” hiring of Ogeron? 
5. Butch Jones - Tennesse.  Just insane the way the Cremesicles lose under Butch
6. McElwain – Gatorland is still a mess….
7. Mora –More could be higher, but who do you bump down?
8. Rich Rod:  Arizona is a mess and he needs some wins…
9. Graham:  ASU – See Arizon
10. Odom:  Mizzou.  You’re an SEC team that’s not supposed to lose to B1G Cellar Dweller Purdue…
11. Urban Meyer:  the suckeyes need to beat someone good and I’ll take ole Urban legend off the hot seat