I can’t believe it! Finally, after what seemed like the longest off-season in years, we finally have a college football game in 2011. I feel like a kid on Christmas morning when it finally arrives. However, this off-season has brought a great deal of turmoil and upheaval to the sport we know and love.
I’ll admit that I am rooting for the NCAA to do the right thing when it comes to dealing with Ohio and their problems. The right thing means discipline and punishment along the lines of what USC received. Of course, Miami has now re-set the bar for what is not only wrong with college football, but how blind institutions can be to what’s happening in their own backyard. And I hate the fact that any moron that writes an essay on the sport includes “USC, OSU, Miami, North Carolina, Auburn, LSU, and Michigan” in their summary of schools that have screwed up.
Look, I get it. Michigan got caught. BUT DON’T put us in the same category as the sorry lot above. There was (is) a whole lot more going on at those Universities that even the people in charge care to admit.
Anyway, that commentary isn’t why you’re reading today. Everyone wants to know where the FMQ is going to lay money this weekend to kick-off the Fantasy Betting Season. As you know, we start with a hypothetical $1,000. We take 10% off any winnings (known as the “vig”) and we keep a running total for the season. Why do I do this? Well, for me, having imaginary action on a game is almost as fun as having real action on a game! I know, I can’t figure it out either, but somehow the ole juices get flowing when I know I just went 3 out of 4 or hit a 3 team parlay! Anyway, part of the strategy is to bet either 3 or 5 games. Stay away from break even numbers and we will pad our favorite bets with a little extra action. And if we like a bunch of picks, well, I do love a little teaser parlay for the increased odds! But a stead fast rule is no more than 30% of our total bankroll in action, at least until the end of the season.
And on to the picks:
Oregon +3 @ LSU (open) Current: Oregon -4.5 @ LSU.
I REALLY liked Oregon getting 3 in middle August before all the turmoil at LSU. I jumped on that one quick based on what Oregon did early to Tennessee last year. The spread has MOVED almost a TD and LSU is now getting 4.5 So, we will stick with our pick of Oregon getting points.
Take Oregon and the points for $50.
Michigan -13.5 vs. Western: This line hasn’t moved much since the open. But the movement has been significant. The spread opened at 14.5 and moved DOWN to 13.5 meaning the money is coming in on Western. I like Michigan to cover BIG here and for Brady Hoke to make an early statement. Yeah, they will probably only run about 6 offensive plays from scrimmage all day so as to not show the Domers anything, but my guess is Western can’t stop them.
Take Michigan and lay the 13.5 for $50.
Nebraska -36 vs. Chatanooga: This line has stayed at 36 for quite awhile, and I missed the open at 34.5. Someone somewhere thinks that Nebraska is going to beat these guys by more than 5 TD’s. I agree with them.
Take Nebraska and lay the 36 for $40.
Wisconsin -35 vs. UNLV: I was a little confused by this spread. I really thought UNLV was a better team than that but after a little investigation into last year’s performance, returning starters, etc., methinks Vegas is pretty close on this one.
Take Wiscy and lay the 35 for $40
Northwestern +7 @ Boston College (open) Current: Northwestern +3 @ BC: I was REALLY surprised by this line when it opened and I jumped on it. I honestly believe it might be the gimme on the board. I think Northwestern is a bit of a sleeper and BC hasn’t done much lately. Look for a straight up win by the Wildcats in this one.
Take Northwestern +7 for $60.
Parlay:
3 team: 6 to 1
4 team: 10-1
5 team: 20-1
My three favorite picks on the board have to be Michigan, Northwestern, and Oregon. But because I hate to have Michigan in on a parlay as I feel like I’m getting emotional with them, I’m going with Northwestern, Nebraska, Oregon for $20. That will pay 6 to 1 if it hits.
Add Michigan to the mix for a 4 way parlay for $10.
And what the hell, it’s the first week! Let’s do all five for $10….Maybe we can start out with a bang!
BANK: $1,000
TOTAL WAGERED: $280
The MMQ
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