What a weekend. 10 ranked
teams in the Top 25 lost to unranked opponents, totally upsetting the applecart
and making a “hodge-podge” of teams that complete the top 25 that rank anywhere
below 10. In fact, throw 15 names in a
hat and you can pull them out however you want and you’re not going to get many
arguments.
I guess this goes back to the argument of “Why
do we have pre-season polls?” and why are certain teams penalized based
on where they were ranked pre-season? Here’s
a peak at who was in the pre-season top 11.
Out of those teams, 5 will not be ranked in the Top 25 at the end of the
season (most likely): Wiscy, Miami, LNU,
Auburn and Washington. Again, why bother
with pre-season? I like the way the
committee does it and WHEN they do it.
The Committee is going to figure all of this out
for us, but we know from the past EXACTLY how sneaky the ole’ committee can be!
THE MMQ’s “WHAT’S THE COMMITTEE GONNA’ DO!!”
Remember:
The Committee is SUPPOSED TO FOLLOW THE STANDARDS LISTED HERE!
College
football’s national title is more directly affected by strength of schedule
than that of any other major sport. It’s baked into the Playoff selection process.
When
circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the
following criteria must be considered:
*
Championships won
* Strength of schedule
*
Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
*
Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
We believe that a
committee of experts properly instructed (based on beliefs that the regular
season is unique and must be preserved; and that championships won on the field
and strength of schedule are
important values that much be incorporated into the selection process) has very
strong support throughout the college football community.
Heather Dinnich works
for ESPN and has been following the committee’s decision for 4 years and has
interviewed newest chairman AD Lawrence from Oregon where he’s stated
that people may be “surprised” by what the committee reveals tonight. He’s stated that mistakes were made in the past
when prior committees didn’t value all the information that was made available
to them.
My PREDICTION For This EVENING (not for the final ranking in
December!)
1.
Clemson – Beaten 3 ranked teams
2.
Bama – hasn’t beaten anyone ranked, but stats
are huge…
3.
LSU – Beaten 4 RANKED TEAMS, including #2
4.
Domers – Beaten ranked teams, including #5
5.
Michigan – Controls their own destiny…they
will replace whoever loses Saturday between LSU and Bama (assuming they beat
PSU this weekend at home, of course)
6.
Laters – 3-point loss at neutral site, but
Texas losing again makes loss look worse
7.
Georgia – See Michigan…
8.
THE STU – because…
SEC: Bama –
Obvious. Sneaky Committee: Based
on how the committee has done things IN THE PAST on the first week of standings
– LSU could be your #1 Team Tonight! No,
I haven’t been drinking at lunch again. LSU
has the best resume out there knocking off 4 ranked teams (Auburn, Miami,
Georgia, MSU). The committee also knows
that Bama and LSU play this weekend and it’ll all take care of itself when it
comes to the SEC. And wouldn’t it be fun
to hear those bama fans squeal a little based on the committee’s
cleverness? The difficult question is where
would they rank Bama, who has played one team with a winning record (how sick
is THAT)? Could they be a lot lower on
the list? 5th even?
The B1G: The Sneaky Committee: The committee knows that Michigan and the
domers have the potential to be the biggest problem they will have to deal with
if both continue and go undefeated through November. The odds of that happening are infinitely low
(see below), so the committee can get away with putting Michigan right behind the
domers based on the fact that Michigan has beaten 2 ranked teams (LNU, Wiscy)
and Michigan has the best loss (1 score to the undefeated domers) and the best
SOS S&P+ and Sagarin (or ESPN Power Index).
Only problem with the #4 ranking (if and when they get there):
Gotta’ play the #1 seed, which hasn’t boded well for the B1G in prior
seasons.
ACC:
Clemson – IN. The Sneaky
Committee: This is where the sneakiness
takes a break due to the fact that there’s nobody else the committee can slide
up for the ACC. Clemson will be #1 or #2.
The domers: Will be ranked
#4 tonight by the committee with their best win being Michigan in the first
game of the season. But the domers have
the worst odds of all the undefeated teams of winning out. Also consider: This becomes another “de-facto” ACC
Championship if Clemson and the domers have to square off in the semi’s. Can the domers lose and still get in? IT DEPENDS ON WHO THEY LOSE TO! My answer is no, based on Sagarin and
S&P+ factors alone, but the committee will be under TREMENDOUS pressure in
December if the domers only loss is to rival USC. Lose to the Purple Kitties – they’re
done.
The Big iiX:
Oklahoma will be the 6th place team. There’s projections that have Oklahoma in if
they win out…While I don’t disagree, there’s a scenario where the Laters can
win out and still be left out of the CFP with 1-loss.
The Pac 12:
IN – Nobody. Needs a
lot of help: Washington St. - Maybe. This would require a LOT OF TEAMS TO START
Losing multiple games.
So, the MMQ spent a little time researching
the scenarios (that some of you blew up at, same way the MMQ did) and were
surprised to learn that there is a very plausible scenario where Michigan could
win out and not get into the CFP.
Before we all go panicking, can we just play
the games…No? Okay, so let’s review the
scenarios.
Laying out the CFP scenarios (for Michigan):
The MMQ’s BIGGEST FEAR: That
the idiots
on the committee will more than likely fall back on the opening game loss that
Michigan suffered in South Bend instead of looking at the SOS and the Sagarin
Ratings, which are very similar to Hoops (identical, actually) but not
as in depth as the S&P+ stats. But
according to Oregon AD (who is the committee chair) they have come a “long way”
in evaluating teams and stats since the committee started doing this in 2014. And they admit to “making errors” in the past
with respect to using bad criteria to select certain teams.
The
Rest of the Mess
CUD-
Complete Unmitigated Disasters – There Were Several
Texas: This was a REALLY BAD LOSS for Texas. Texas was actually ahead of
the Laters in the AP poll because of head to head at the Shoot-Out. Now, the Big iiX is in Big iiTrouble and
needs a tremendous amount of help from other teams losing and hopefully Texas
wins out from here. That’s not a given
and I’m not even sure the Laters can win out with Texas Tech and WVU still on
the slate. Bad loss for the conference.
Washington: Again, file under “Why do we have pre-season
polls? Losing
this week takes Washington completely out of the CFP picture and Washington St.
finds themselves with the “best” chance to have a say in the discussion. But, again, a pre-season non-conference
schedule filled with cream puffs screws them...
Colorado: So, you’re up 31-3. That’s a pretty safe lead, especially against
Oregon State – AMIRITE??? Nope. How you lose a lead like that in today’s day
and age is beyond me. Say what you want
about Michigan’s “Boring” offense, but I’ll take a stellar defense and ball
control offense any day rather than lose a game like this…
Gatorland: Right when people THOUGHT you were on the
comeback, you lost BADLY in a rivalry game at a neutral site. That’s a problem. Georgia “sort of” played their way back into
the CFP convo with the win, but that pounding they took in Death Valley still
looms large…
Come Back Off The Ledge
Texas A&M – MSU is
a much better team than their record would suggest. Still, 3-losses to teams that are all ranked
isn’t a terrible thing when two of the losses are to Clemson and Bama.
Iowa – I
liked the Hawkeyes to take care of business in Happy Valley, but it is an
extremely difficult place to win. Makes
me think of Kinnick...
We Won But…We Should Be
Worried
Purple Kitties – Beating a
Wiscy team that’s not a typical Wiscy team will give you a false sense of
confidence. Unlike
Michigan, that DESTROYED said Wiscy team.
I think you have a chance this weekend against the domers, but it’s
going to take your best game.
Syracuse: Sure, you beat an “OK” NC State team, but the
domers loom large in November.
UTAH: Soundly defeated UCLA and still control the
PAC12 south. The
only problem with that? A repeat against
WSU who already beat you at their place.
Maybe a neutral site will be better?
Linking
Laconically On A Tuesday…
Some great links to read in
your spare time…
6 Crazy Things in College
Football
Female Packer “Super-Fans” Don’t
Recognize Desmond Howard – Try To Get Him To Become a “Packers” Fan and Invite
Him to Lambaugh!
This is gotta’ be the funniest thing I’ve
seen in a month. If you’re anyone out
there and you don’t know who you’re talking to, don’t be this person!
Urban Liar and THE STU Could
Part Ways
Because, you know, your health
is everything and when you’re losing, health is always more important and other
reasons. My take: Urban Liar is going to assess the situation
at the end of the season and make a decision as to whether or not he
returns.
Strength Of Schedule IS
IMPORTANT!
As always, Bill Connelly is
reliable in looking at the numbers as he’s ever been. A good read for the nerds out there that like
to look at the stats…
Figuring Out What The
Committee Will Do Tuesday
Sort of what I alluded to
earlier. The committee knows it can get
away with a lot early as there are games coming that will settle everything…
The
5 Stages of Slappy Fan Grief
- Denial and Isolation –Texas. That game was winnable, but now you’re
reduced to spoiler.
- ANGER – Suckeyes – Still Here.
- Bargaining –Suckeyes If we just win out…
- Depression –Longhorns, Suckeyes,
Iowa
- Acceptance – Florida State fans. Now they’re blaming Fisher for “leaving the cupboard bare” after 4 consecutive recruiting classes that were ranked in the top 5 of the country. I guess recruiting rankings don’t matter then?
The Hot Seat
ZAPPED List
We’ll keep track of who’s gone
as the season progresses….
- Durkin – Criminal charges
pending. Rumor is a presser TODAY
at 3:30 to announce the investigation findings of player abuse.
- Mike Jinks – Bowling Green. I guess starting out 1-6 in the MAC gets you canned now…
Electric
Chair of Death Seat!
- Ash – Rutgers: Rutgers will probably stick with him because they can’t afford to pay him.
The Hot Seat
- Petrino – If he doesn’t
bolt for an NFL gig first.
- Malzhan – Losing to Tennessee
is a fireable offense in Auburn
- Richt – Miami is trending
downward in a weak ACC…
- Fuentes – VaTech
