So, That's What It's Like To Get "Michigan'ed"???

During the 2^nd half of the Tennessee game, I explained to my daughter that one of the keys to Michigan’s success this season has been that they make far fewer mistakes than their counterparts.  Fewer Fouls, Turnovers, they make more Free Throws and they miss a lot fewer shots than their opponents. And based on all those stats, Michigan has been successful even though they don’t play defense as well as the other team often times.

However, being a defensive minded guy due to, I dunno’….Football(?)  I still like to see good defense and I had a sneaking suspicion that Michigan might lose in this tourney in a shoot-out that went to 80 or 90 points.  But as long as the formula was working, I was happy and I still am happy to be a supporter of JB and the 3 Point Men and the exciting and winning style of hoops they have played all season…

Until you get a game like yesterday.   Two basketball giants (okay, maybe Michigan isn’t quite up there with Kentucky – but you get my point) that were playing at their best started trading shots and scoring at will.  Defense was an afterthought, sort of.  Kentucky tried taking away the perimeter and Michigan went inside to Mor-Ford for easy points in the paint.  Kentucky took what Michigan was giving and the two teams just slugged it out. 

However, when the other guy doesn’t make a mistake and plays the same game that you are beating everybody with…and maybe even plays it a little better its starts to get a little concerning.  Then, it’s like watching a mirror image of yourself, only they look to be a taller and better on defense than you…And they didn’t miss many of their shots late in the 2^nd half.  And, with the score tied and the luxury of having the ball with the last shot, they literally “Burked” Michigan with 3 tics left on the ole’ clock…

Yeah…That sucks.

Still, when I looked at the numbers, Michigan played to their season and tourney averages.  They did not play a bad game; in fact, I’m sure this will be an instant classic as both teams had pretty good (if not great compared to 2 of the other elite 8 games) stat lines.   Michigan, however, had a couple of bad trips and crucial misses in the 2^nd half.   And I’m going to go out and state here and now that the pivotal point in the game wasn’t actually IN the 2^nd half, at least it wasn’t to this fan…  No, I would need to look to the first half when Michigan was up 10 and I had a thought, however brief, that the Wolverines needed to win the game “Right Now”!  Go out and play like you’re down 10 and hang another 10 on these guys and don’t take your foot off the gas.  Instead, UK came out a little motivated and tied it up going into the half.

That’s the one place I will give the other coach (I loathe) a little credit.  John Calipari used his time-outs whenever Michigan scored more than 6 points in a row.  He made sure that he was on top of the mo-mo and tried to nip it in the bud.  He knows his player and he has finally figured out that they are young and need to be smacked on the ole’ noggin more often vs. less often...

But…every season has to come to an end and in hoops, 67 teams that make it into the NCAA end the season with a loss…there’s no way to win the last game if you’re in the tourney.  No bowl you can hang your hat on.  Just a loss…and at least we can say Michigan’s was a good loss.  If there is such a thing.  A loss that the entire team can look back on and say they left it all out on the floor….

I hate to look at a B1G Championship Season coupled with an Elite 8 appearance and say that it’s somewhat of a disappointment.  However, I’m not sure how you categorize it if you’re not going to call it a disappointment.  This team played so well down the stretch and did so many amazing things that I truly believed they were the team to beat this year, regardless of what all the prognosticators said.  If UK wins the bid enchilada, we can at least say, “Well, there’s that.  We (again) lost to the eventual NCAA Champion.”

But I really believed Michigan was going to win it.

Now, that’s clearly not meant to be.  And I’m going to miss a lot of these players.  I’ve watched each game in the tourney thinking it MIGHT be the last, but a feeling crept in and hung around (even after Michigan tied it) and I didn’t like it.  It wasn’t the, “Okay…we tied it up and we are going to OT” feeling…It was the “Uh-oh…19 tics on the clock and the other guy has the last shot.  And they haven’t missed in like…forever.  I don’t like this…”

Yeah…THAT feeling.

Hence is why I really wasn’t ready to write this post this AM.  I was anticipating a Final Four Weekend and was looking forward to a Monday night against either Florida or UConn.

Still, I have to give the team and coaching staff a lot of credit.  Everyone else had more or less said Michigan was out of the national picture after McGary opted for back surgery.  They pretty much proved all the critics wrong and the Wolverines were within 3 points of REALLY proving them wrong…That’s hoops - so close…and yet so far away.

The Rest of the Mess

After Wiscy pulled off the miracle in OT against the other wildcats, I was really thinking that 3 B1G teams were going to the Final Four to face Florida, with Michigan being the iffy-est one to get in.  Sparty however, as much as this pains me to say it, reverted back to their mid-season ways with lousy shooting and too many turnovers.  Yes, as someone else pointed out, how does UConn get a game in MSG that close to “home”?  I’m not sure, but I had the same question about Big Blue Nation (not Michigan…Kentucky) lucking out as an 8 seed at Lucas Oil which is a short drive from the Blue-Grass state. 

But I digress…Sparty also upset me in that I really wanted them in the Final 4.  I wanted Michigan and Sparty there to shut everybody up about the strength of the B1G.  Sparty just couldn’t get out of its own way and while they kept it close, I felt Sparty Nation’s pain when, down 5 with 0:30 left on the clock, Apple fouled Shabazz on a 3 point shot and fouled out of the game…It kind of was a final punctuation on a very disappointing game and season for Apple.  If I am a Sparty…it’s a little bitter sweet that he’s leaving.  I’m happy for what he was able to do for me over his career, but at the same time, I’m glad he’s gone. (As a Michigan Slappy, I wish he had another year of eligibility!!!)

I wanted a B1G final that featured the State of Michigan and I wanted to get revenge on Sparty and catch them napping. 

But again, there were a couple of hurdles that needed to be overcome first. 

Was there any measure of success in either of these teams or will they both be looked at as “seasons of failure?”  I guess if you had to measure one team by what was expected coming into the season, then Sparty’s failure surpasses Michigan’s by leaps and bounds.  Sparty was a “Certain” Final 4 team, Championship Favorite, and sat at the number 1 rank in the early season after beating Kentucky in the non-con and before the injuries.  When everyone came back, they returned to favor among the talking heads after the B1G Tourney.  THIS prognosticator questioned the validity of it, however, predicting that Sparty might not make the Final 4 as you just can’t get all the pieces working in sync again in that short time period.  There’s a reason you play pre-season and conference schedules.  Even in basketball.

So, yes…Sparty’s failure was much greater when measured against expectations, but Michigan’s pain is equally as bad if not more so, in my opinion.  Maybe more so for the followers of Michigan who knew what this team was truly capable of and had seen it time and time again.  And Michigan didn’t have a mid-season “slump” where the entire fan base figured it was over and had written the team off.  Sparty to a man had more or less done that and the 3 wins in the NCAA’s could be considered gravy when you look at what had to be overcome. 

However you want to look at it, I guess.  Green and Blue colored glasses, anyone?

Moving forward, GRIII and Stauskas are probably gone, even though I think it’s still way too early to make a prediction on either player at this point.  Morgan is gone because he’s done but there will be a strong contingent of players that return next season.  Plus McGary and a strong freshmen class and well….

Who knows??? 

Bracketology

ESPN stated that out of the 11 million brackets that were received, there are currently around 600 that have the Final 4 correct.  600 people (which is kind of amazing) didn’t take Arizona and Michigan State, two of the most popular championship picks.  Interesting….

If you had TOLD me that one of the teams between UConn and Kentucky were going to make the Final 4, I would have shook my head and said, no…I’ve watched way more basketball than that and I can tell you that there’s no way either one of those teams can win 4 in a row against that competition….not to mention that they BOTH made it.  UConn lost 84-48 against Louiville 2 weeks prior to the NCAA's...And Kentucky through the Midwest?  Through Wichita State?  Through Louisville?  And Michigan?  Ha! You're crazy....

No way…

Which, so much for know anything when it comes to the brackets. 

The Game Is About To Change...

I know it's Thursday in the 2nd weekend of the NCAA's and I should be thinking nothing but hoops right now as we are less than 4 hours away from tip-off, but the MMQ had to make an apperance...

Sue me.

Based on the Federal Judge Ohr’s ruling in the Northwestern case that players are in fact well within the definition of “Employee”, the game of college athletics is about to change…dramatically.  Maybe not quickly, especially at large, public universities, but it is going to change.

While I understand this is a VERY divided topic, even the collective MMQ family can’t come together and have a civil conversation on it.  The Matriarch of the MMQ Clan believes the Student Athlete is getting PLENTY of compensation for the chance to play any sport at the collegiate level. The MMQ believes that while the average student  athlete is getting a great deal in scholarship money and everything that goes with it, the super athlete should be allowed to go out and make his own commercial deals if he’s capable.

On a bit of a side note that hopefully helps you better understand where I’m coming from on this, I believe everything changed for me when in 1972, Title IX forced universities to have equal opportunities for men and women in college sports.  Simply put, you had to have a balance in your collegiate athletic programs of men and women.  Which, on the face of it, makes complete sense.

Until you consider football.  At 85 scholarship players, it is by far the largest participation sport of any other sport on campus.  When I was old enough to understand it all, I argued at the time that I agreed with Title IX.  However, football should be eliminated from the count.  There is no female sport that complements football.  Nothing even comes close.  And if you have to count football, it would deny too many men’s Olympic sports a spot in the Varsity line-up that are traditionally played in collegiate athletics.

Of course, that didn’t happen.  Even though this has to be the most grossly un-fair piece of legislation ever passed…And this is coming from a guy with 2 daughters.  I get the importance of having equal opportunity for men and women…but not when you take away opportunities from men in the process. 

Well, here we are 40 years later and the “success” of Title IX is still being debated and there are some people a whole lot smarter than yours truly that have actually taken my side on this issue.  But, that’s not the point of today’s entry – at least, not in its entirety. 

Did you know that Desmond Howard is not allowed to sign the picture of himself striking the Heismann pose in the end zone on the kick-off return TD against ohio if a fan presents it to him and asks for his signature?  Why not?  He doesn’t OWN THE PICTURE and he is currently being sued because he did exactly that. He signed his likeness on a photo he didn’t own.  But he is countersuing.  Why? He made it.  Without Des, there is no picture.  He was the one that performed the task and scored the TD and won the Heismann.  Kind of makes sense, doesn’t it?

That’s where I have a HUGE issue with all of this, and that’s only the beginning.

Today, you now have athletic budgets that are literally bursting at the seams with money from donors, ticket sales and TV deals.  How bad has it gotten?  I wrote last September in an earlier MMQ the following:

Another potential land mine that universities and the NCAA alike are going to need to deal with sooner rather than later is the APU “All Players United” movement. Players are finally getting their act together and realizing that the product they are responsible for putting on the field, albeit through the organization, branding, and effort of the parent institutions that they are playing for, is worth more to the players because the resulting product is worth a LOT more to the institutions than it’s EVER BEEN in the history of collegiate athletics. A little quick research revealed that the athletic budget for the University of Michigan in 1975 was less than $4,000,000. That’s not a typo….$4 million. In 2000, Michigan’s AD budget was $35,000,000. Today, Michigan’s 2013 Athletic Budget is $133,000,000, a 4X increase from 13 years ago. (The BTN alone gives each B1G conference member an annual cash in-flow of $25M and growing) I’m not saying that student athletes, for the most part, aren’t receiving just reward (education, health care, room & board, etc.) while playing for a university in any sport, and that cost annually at Michigan is somewhere between $75K-$100K for each athlete that’s on scholarship. I’m saying that the amount of money involved for the Big 6 Power Conferences has never been greater on a relative basis (money per student athlete), and it doesn’t look like that curve is about to tip in the downward direction. But, instead of coming out and acknowledging that fact, what do a collective of D1 Athletic Directors do instead? They come out in unified voice that Pay for Play is not only wrong, but it will NEVER be part of what is otherwise a highly managed system of integrity…..for the student athletes, of course…by the Universities.

The numbers from above haven’t changed. And what I neglected to mention was that the “employees” of the two biggest money makers for the athletic departments, Football and Basketball (MEN’S), generate or help to generate between 85%-90% on average, the entire athletic budget.

Put simply, you have a very “unbalanced” workforce in the football and basketball programs generating revenue for the university athletic departments. 

Now, I have heard the universities arguments and in the spirit of fairness, I will put one of them here:  Without the institutions and the brand of these universities, there would be no income for these individuals.  In other words, these 18-22 year olds could not go out and start their own “Developmental Football League” and expect to generate any interest or for that matter, revenue due to the fact that there wouldn’t be any fan interest.  I will give the universities this point.  Bravo.  Without the institution, the kids would just be good football players waiting to go pro killing time in a developmental league. 

But, and I will cite the Ivy League for my example, with just a bunch of average student athletes, and by average I mean average athletically, these institutions would not be vying for the National Championships and undefeated seasons that they all desperately want.  So, the university “needs” the capable student-athlete (again, in the athletic sense) in order to be able to generate the revenue streams and maintain the fan interest that they enjoy today  - which pays the bills for ALL the other athletic programs within the university.  In this case, the universities need them more than they need the university.

Point to the Student Athlete.

Oh wait - You're not convinced?  Okay, let's probe a little deeper.  What the universities have allowed to happen is the same thing that happens in any capital endeavor where the demand is constant and the need to feed the corporate beast cannot be contained:  In a word, GREED.  I define corporate greed as the greed that occurs at every level in the corporate process.  From the consumer, to the worker making the goods all the way up to the CEO who gets stock options.  But now you have it in the most heralded of all institutions:  College Universities.

Why did Michigan add luxury boxes?  Why does the football calendar allow for 12 games when there only used to be 9?  Why were more bowls added to a system that originally had 1 (a hundred years ago) and then slowly built up to 4 and now stands at 37?  Why did bowls go from a break-even proposition to a $25M payout for the National Championship?  Why did ticket prices go from $10 in the 1970’s to $100 to $120 for premium games in 40 years (a 10x increase)?

The University BRAND did all that? REALLY?

The product on the field and the athletes participating had NOTHING TO DO WITH ANY OF THAT???

Excuse the MMQ while I reset the BS meter….

Why SHOULDN’T the Student Athlete that helps generate this revenue get something out of it?  Or should I say, something more out of it then their education especially if they are the ones who are directly affecting the increase in revenues??  And more importantly, they are the ones putting themselves in harm’s way and taking the risk?

I’m not denying a collegiate female cross country runner the opportunity to go out and get a shoe endorsement.  Or a golfer to go out and endorse Titleist.  In fact, I would encourage her to do just that.  But the same should go for a kid like Denard Robinson who’s best endorsement opportunity(s) was during his 4 years at the University of Michigan.  We all thought that his chances in the pros would be marginal at best.  Yet, Denard was denied an opportunity to capitalize on his likeness and his ability while he was in his prime.

That’s Wrong…In so many ways.  Just like Desmond not being able to autograph a picture of himself 20 years after the fact.

If this ruling helps get that and all these problems fixed or at least on the road to being fixed…I’m all for it.

The Michigan Take

So, I’ve given the Monday rundown of the NCAA’s first weekend and all the exciting things that happened, but I haven’t had a chance to share thoughts and feelings (Maybe:  REASONS?)  about how this Michigan team is going about its business.  Rather than pen in my usual way, I figured I’d list them here in order to give you all reasons to understand why this is more than likely a Final Four team and then, who knows?

1.  First, we all need to acknowledge that JB won his 700^th game as a head coach.  Way to go coach!
2. We need to recognize that we don’t need to be “scared” Michigan fans anymore.  This team literally plays with a confidence that started back when Novak was still here and that transferred to Burke and now Stauskas wears that confidence like a badge of honor.
3. Several people I was watching the game with all agreed that “Stauskas is a cocky little SOB.” 
4. True.....But he’s OUR COCKY LITTLE SOB!!! 
5. Remember that!
6. This team is never out of it…Even when they really APPEAR to be out of it…
7. Repeat that a couple of times….
8. There are several of you out there (And you KNOW WHO YOU ARE) that seem to forget that….
9. (I HAVE THE TEXTS!!!!)
10. Did you repeat it?
11. Do it again…THIS TEAM IS NEVER OUT OF IT!!!
12. Please re-watch the Sweet 16 game from last year when Michigan was down 10 with 2 minutes to go in regulation against Kansas...
13. McGary believed and delivered. 
14. Trey Burke believed and delivered.
15. And both those guys are GONE!!!
16. (Okay – one is still here, but not contributing.)
17. But this ain’t no SPARTY BLOG.
18. NO EXCUSES!
19. But could you imagine if McGary were out there right now?
20. And healthy?
21. Which kind of goes without saying I guess…
22. But the Winning continues without MM!!! 
23. That should really help you understand the JB philosophy and coaching style.
24. Don’t panic, let them play.
25. Zone defense?  No problem.  Death From Above will handle that.
26. Man to Man??  Bring it.  The dribble drive will manage that…
27. 1-3-1?  Sure, love it.  Lookeee what J-Mo can do!
28. In other words:  Offense wins. 
29. This is not your father’s basketball game anymore.
30. Forget the 80’s.
31. The twin towers are over….
32. So is the Big East
33. And 90’s…
34. Yeah, the Fab Five was awesome…But did they accomplish more?
35. I DON’T THINK SO!!!
36. Yeah, Two Championship games…With No Championship.
37. And no outright B1G Title!!!
38. That’s still worth something!  Ask Sparty….
39. Basketball Defense is over-rated.  It’s all about Offense….
40. And I LIKE IT!
41. Everyone just needs to accept the fact that Michigan can score.  Period.
42. Once you have accepted that fact in your life, THINK with an offense oriented bias and everything becomes readily clear.
43. That nagging feeling that the shooters will go cold? 
44. Fuhgeddaboutit!
45. Water in the NCAA tourney seeks its own level.  But I believe this team is pumped up and ready to prove that last year wasn’t a “fluke”.
46. Has anyone else noticed in the last 5 games that Stauskas has taken the first shot?
47. And he’s made it?
48. FROM THE 3 POINT LINE???
49. OSU – 3 Pointer
50. Illinois – 3 Pointer
51. Sparty – 3 Pointer
52. Wofford –3 Pointer
53. Texas- 3 Pointer…
54. That’s a three from the top of the key, folks….
55. Every Time….
56. That’s a statement.
57. What’s he saying?
58. What DO YOU THINK he’s saying?
59. Only Stauskas knows…
60. Me?  I think it’s something like this:
61. “I’ve got this.  You can’t stop it.  I CAN do this all night.”
62. …Bitches….
63. (At least, I’m pretty sure that’s what Stauskas is thinking!)
64. Am I scared of Tennessee?
65. Doesn’t matter what I think…Or what YOU think.
66. If this team admits fear…They’ve already lost.
67. And They Are NOT The Type of Players Who Fear ANYONE….
68. Remember that.

Hey!  Look at that….68 reasons to believe. 

Coincidence? 

I think NOT!!!  So, while you and I might sweat the fact that the Volunteers have beaten some really good teams, Michigan is a 1 point dog and Kenpom has the Volunteers ranked higher than Michigan….

Fear not. 

These are not the Wolverine Basketball Players you used to know…These are the guys that are usually on the other side of the bench and has Michigan fans scratching their heads…

Instead, these are scoring demons that will make THE OTHER teams sit back and say,

 

“Whiskey…Tango…Foxtrot….How do you STOP THIS???”

Weekend 1 - Whew!!!!

MADNESS….

Yes indeed – the pretenders are getting separated from the Contenders and 16 remain to vie for the National Title.  1/3 of the challenge for the 16 teams that remain has been completed with 4 difficult games left for the Champion and the Runner Up. 

Sweet 16 Bracket Update….Let’s run through each region and review the teams that made it (MMQ’s picks in BOLD) and some of the more noteworthy games and or misfortunes of teams in that particular bracket…

West Region:  Zona – SDSU–   Wiscy – Baylor

Tim Miles ended Nebraska’s incredible season on a sour note as a 1 and done against hot shooting Baylor.  I had only seen Baylor play once in a very un-inspired game against ISU and figured that they just weren’t that good…I’m wrong and not afraid to admit it.  The BISON of NDState did what they were supposed to do in the 1^st round, but couldn’t pull off the upset against Fisher’s Beach Boy’s and Fisher (who has announced his retirement at the end of the Tourney) advance to the Sweet 16.  Creighton really disappointed yesterday in a yawner against Baylor where McDermott didn’t even show up.   Wiscy surprised a lot of people and beat the Duckies at their own game, playing an up tempo high scoring affair on Saturday night and Bucky is now looking like a real threat to make the F4!  Interesting bracket, but not when you look at the

Midwest Region:  Michigan- Tennessee  –   Louisville – Kentucky

Wow…Right out of the gate on Friday, the Mercer Bears, Champions of the Atlantic Sun Conference, and would probably have finished as high as 3^rd or 4^th in the SEC had they played in it (as stated to the MMPG earlier last week by a local who has seen them play pretty regularly) came out and beat Dook at their own game.  Ball control, interior offensive penetration and making them from the charity stripe.  Please, PLEASE someone at CBS/TNT/TBS/TRU continue to give the viewers at home and in the bar INCREDIBLY LONG SHOTS of Coach K seething on the sidelines. 

Yes!  That’s what I want!!!  That’s what I NEED!!  Can I get some more, please?  When do we get to stop laughing about this?  Never?  In what was probably the best game and one that I was frankly pulling for the 1 Seed, which rarely happens, Witchy State and the Wildcats went down to the wire and Kentucky pulled off the upset…Sort of like Witchy Stated did last season over the Zags…Michigan rolled in both its games and the MMPG is not sure he’s liking the Tennessee match-up. More on that in a second….

South Region:  Florida – UCLA – Dayton - Stanford

This bracket was chock FULL of upsets, starting off but not limited to THE University of Dayton Flyers beating ohio in an early game on Thursday and road that upset and made Juice out of the Orange – Not unexpected by this prognosticator!   The Six Million Dollar Man got the best of Shaka Smart’s ‘Dores and Shaka is 1 and done one season after going out in the 2^nd round against Michigan.  Has Smart worn out his welcome?  New Mexico came out flat and 10 Seed Stanford rode the upset train through the desert and continued riding it right through Kansas!   Had I known THAT Stanford team was going to show up…Well, that’s the thing about this sport, isn’t it?  Too much knowledge is sometimes worse than not enough. 

East:   Virginia – MSU–   Iowa State – Uconn

Sparty is really looking more and more like the favorite to come out of this region….Very few upsets with the exception of the Huskies knocking off what appeared to be an over-rated Villanova squad.  ISU lost its third scorer with a broken foot and he is out for the season. Which, in what has to be billed the most unusual finish (That I’VE seen in awhile) the Cyclones score with 1.6 ticks left on the clock and the Tar Heels drive it over the half court line and call time out with some precious tenths left on the clock…but the refs review it….and review it…and review it….and review it…and reviewed it some more…and then they reviewed it again.  Than, just to be completely and 100% sure, they reviewed it one more time!  Now, I’m not sure all that review was needed, but I get that they wanted to get it right.  Finally, they announce that the clock had not started when it should of and that there was NO TIME LEFT when UNC called time out!  Which, why try to call time there anyway?  Run the play and take a shot, Coach Roy!  ACC – Smoke and Mirrors, Smoke and Mirrors…Top 3 seeds still alive and Sparty will have their hands full with the only ACC school left….Let me repeat that – the ONLY ACC school left...S&M Conference!!!  Oohh…I like that!  And I just made that connection!  S&M!!!  That’s funny!

Summary: 

Underachievers:  ACC – UNC, Dook, Syracuse, NC State, and Pitt.  In fact, the ACC is now going to be dubbed the “Smoke and Mirrors Conference” as they have 1 team left in what was supposed to be a wide open Tourney.  The Big 12:  Oklahoma, Okie State, Texas, Kansas, K-State were all either 1 and done or gone before the Sweet 16!  They still have 2 teams left, but for what was supposed to the toughest conference in the nation, I’m throwing the BS flag…

Holding their own:  B1G schools left – 3 Michigan, Sparty and Wiscy.  Only ohio fans had ohio making it to the Sweet 16…and Iowa has been a disappoint all season.  The Huskers just got buzzed by a hot Baylor squad….

OVERACHIEVING:  As much as I have bashed them this season, the SEC is starting to look like a relatively TOUGH OUT in this Tourney! Gators are the Gators, Kentucky knocked off the number 1 Seed, and Tennessee is in the Sweet 16 after playing their way in as an 11 Seed!  Look out for the SEC and the PAC 12 – Stanford, UCLA, Zona.  Luckily, Zona doesn’t have to play an in conference rival (And wouldn’t until the Championship game, if it were to happen) so that helps their chances. 

The Forecast:

The MMPG only got 9 out of 16 correct in the Sweet 16 (Which Sucks), but at least all my F4 teams are intact…However, the abysmal performance shouldn’t stop the prognostication process for this coming weekend!

Elite 8:  I’m going to stick with my original predictions of Zona, Wiscy, Michigan, Louisville, ISU, Sparty, Florida and I will say….Dayton over Stanford in the South Region!  (That’s 2  - TWO Double Digit Seeds going at it right there!  10 vs. 11)

Final 4:  Zona – Michigan – Sparty – Florida

Michigan will have the toughest road to get to the F4 as they will have to somehow figure out a way to beat a hot Volunteer team.  Then, they will have to take down the winner of the Wildcat – Cardinals match-up that everyone will be talking about because Tobacco Road is out of the tourney….Zona will have the next most difficult challenge, followed by Sparty and then Florida.  Alford’s first trip to the Sweet 16 will probably end quickly as he isn’t used to coaching this late into March. 

State of the Game

If I’ve said it once, it’s worth stating again.  Something, ANYTHING, needs to be done about collegiate officiating.  I’m not even going to state instances or anything specific because A:  There were too many terrible calls over the weekend and B:  Some of the bad calls were happening to teams I hate, so somehow that works for me…

But still, can’t there be a way to get some of this stuff right more often than not?  I’m still most upset with the Charge – Block call as most of them that are getting called blocks are really looking a lot like charges to the MMPG….But I guess that’s the new college hoops. 

It all starts again on Thursday night!

You Still Have 45 Minutes Before The Brackets Are Due!

Under the column heading of "Better Late Than Never" this has to be the handiest reference sheet that Bracket Science has produced to date.  If you are having some difficulties making those last minute decisions on "Toss Up" games this thing just might come in handy and you may want to peruse it before you hit send!

There's a lot more information here than meets the eye, and you can bet that the MMPG will study this sheet in some depth over the years to come!

Good Luck and CHOOSE WISELY!

The Brackets Are Nearing Completion! $1 Billion Clams is on the Line!

Here it is!  One of these two brackets will win $1Billion!!!    

 

 

So, Mr. MMPG:  “You’re telling me there’s a chance?”

(Not Really! – ed.)

Research Summary

I know many of you probably sleep at night or don’t like to surf the internet looking for obscure facts and figures regarding the NCAA Tourney.  I’m going to give you some bullets (with links, where available) points that you should really take into consideration when selecting your picks:

-Most Overachieving Head Coach by Seed:  John Beilien!

-Most Probable - Potential Cinderella Teams – (What jumps out at me here?  SDSU is potential upset bait in the 1^st and 2^nd rounds…):

First Round Cinderellas

§  #11 Dayton – over ohio
§  #12 Harvard – over Cincinnati
§  #13 New Mexico State  - over SDSU!!!

Second Round Cinderellas

§  #8 Memphis – over Virginia!
§  #10 Stanford, St. Joseph’s – Over Kansas & Villanova!
§  #11 Iowa – over Duke!
§  #12 Harvard, North Dakota State, NC State – Sparty, SDSU, Louisville!

-  This season, based on RPI rating by seed (lower RPI’s in the higher seeded positions (ie – Sparty, Louisville), is trending as a season that SHOULD PRODUCE 10-11 upsets by SEED (or more!) vs. an average of 7-8 upsets in a regular season.  This means that if you love picking the upset, it’s your season!

Lots of other stuff that is in my brain and I’m just ready to give birth to a bracket or two already!

Elite 8 and F4 Summaries

South: The Gators are the defacto no-brainer out of this region and if you’re in a pool that doubles for every round, I’ve learned that it just doesn’t pay to take an early upset of a 1 seed that is a favorite.  Yes, the UCLA thing might happen (With Steve Alford being one of the worst tourney coaches around, I’m thinking no), but you’re giving up so much value in the 8 point, 16 point and finally the 32 point round that it’s not worth it.  So, stick with the higher seeds (1-4) and don’t sweat missing the 8 - 9 seed that made it into the F4….If someone has that, well, they’ve probably got a lot of other problems with their bracket.

The other seed from that region boiled down to the fact that Kansas probably isn’t going to get out of the 1^st weekend and I just don’t like Syracuse.  Hating the ‘Cuse has served me well in exiting them early and usually getting it pretty close to right.  I hate taking them further in my bracket than they actually go and New Mexico rides the upset train out of the Sweet 16. 

EAST:  Still pissed Angry.  Here’s why:  When looking at the relative strength of the RPI’s against the Midwest that has the Best RPI (Lowest) and looking at everyone else’s percentage to the Midwest, here’s what you get:

South	92.6%
East	83.4%
Midwest	100.0%
West	94.5%

Meaning the East is 16.6% EASIER than the Midwest….Sheesh.  Anyway, In the B1G Special Bracket, I have Sparty facing Iowa State with Sparty going to the F4 and defeating Florida.  In the Money Sheet, I have made what I think is the “Differentiator” decision and taken Iowa State over Sparty.  With EVERYONE jumping on the Sparty Bandwagon (There’s very little room left on it, by the way), I really don’t want to be part of that crowd when things go bad….   I think this is the right spot to try to earn some points by ignoring the en-vogue favorite and going with a bit of a sleeper…Not that ISU is a sleeper, but they aren’t Sparty and they won the toughest conference tourney (big 12) and have proven they can play exterior and interior defense and offense.  Plus, big players don’t bother them.  In this way, I would jump probably half the field with an 8 point pick and also have a decided advantage over the field that is taking Sparty…Contrarian thinking game theory at work here. 

In one of the two 6-11 pick where I took the chalk I am riding the Tar Heels out of round 1 and they lose a Squeeker of a game to Iowa State…Roy Williams is hard to go against here…but can they get to the Sweet 16?  I’ve changed my mind on the Harvard Cincinnati pick…I wanted to go with Amaker, but Cincinnati looks just too good on paper.  But when I did that and looked at the Sparty – Cinci match-up…Hmmmm…..It’s possible.  Not Probable, but possible.

WEST:  In the B1G sheet, I’m putting it all on Wiscy to do what it probably won’t do;  hence, “The B1G Sheet”  (You figure it out!).  However, I do think they have a shot to win the whole thing if they can manage to get to the F4 past Oregon, Creighton and ‘Zona (LOL).  In the Money Sheet, I have ‘Zona over Creighton (after Creighton wins the battle for the State of Nebraska) and I’m still not entirely sure on that pick.  And it’s NOT the way you think:  I was actually thinking of taking Creighton to the F4, but I think ‘Zona will be too much….Please note that I am RIDING THE BISON to the Sweet 16!  Oklahoma is Oklahoma and SDSU is lousy from the 3Pt line and they have had difficulty getting out of the 1^st weekend.  The Bison are the only team that have this type of 1^st-2^nd round set-up with really weak offensive and defensive teams.  PLEASE NOTE:  This is the one pick that I will scrutinize and agonize over tonight before actually sending my sheets.  Right now, I’m sticking with the Bison.  But I may change….It’s a year of really weak 12 seeds and I’m just not feeling that upset.  Long live the 11 seed!

MIDWEST:  Again, it’s all about thinking how the REST OF THE WORLD is going to pick their elite 8 in this one and looking for some value.  I’m in a really big pool where there’s very little edge to be gained by picking dook into the Elite 8.  I will hang with the crowd (in the Money Bracket), but I want to win the pool!  Therefore, make the statement and take the chalk to the Elite 8 against Louisville – The Cards absolutely SUCK from the Charity Stripe (They are WAY worse in FT% than last season)…I’ve made more correct decisions on which way to pick teams based on that statistic alone.  And take the upset special of Iowa over dook, assuming Iowa wins tonight.  If Tennessee makes it, all bets are off and I will go back to dook.  Now, I will say that I thought long and hard about where the Shockers may stumble…Long and hard.  I think the world will probably take the KU upset which is why, again, it pays to keep potential high seeds alive unless you’re absolutely sure they are going to go down or not make the Sweet 16.  However, taking Louisville in the initial upset protects me a little and hedges my picks on the top side…everyone will be taking Louisville or Kentucky and very few if anyone will have Witchy State, making NOT taking the 1 seed negligible – or you could reverse the entire thinking and ride Witchy to the Final 4.  And here’s another hedge:  Again, taking Michigan in both brackets makes sense from that perspective as well as most of the pickers will have had them losing in this round or the previous round.  In fact, more than a few of the bracket models (the better ones) have Michigan losing to dook and dook losing to Louisville.  HOWEVER!  Another model that weights COACHING more than some of the other attributes shows that Beilien is one of the most over-achieving coaches in the NCAA!  So, what do you want to do here?  Stay with the bandwagon and talking heads that have never picked a 100% correct bracket either or apply some history and logic?  To each his own here.

Midwest Footnote:  Mitch McGary has been running on the hardwood and has stayed in shape cycling and doing some other stuff…wouldn’t that be a shot of adrenaline to a MICHIGAN team that literally has all the other parts in place?  Look out if that happens! 

Final Four

B1G Sheet:  Michigan, Wiscy, Sparty, Florida.  Michigan takes it all with a win over arch-rival Sparty….(I know…dreaming!)  I’m not 100% convinced that Michigan can pull off the Wiscy rubber match should it occur. 

Money Bracket:  Florida, Arizona, Michigan, Iowa State

This one has a little more going on and in two of the odds futures sites I look at had Florida and ‘Zona playing for all the marbles.  Again, if this bracket is still “Live” come the Final 4, most people who have Florida will probably have them winning it all, and it makes sense to go the other way in case you need the points.  But often times I’m sitting there wishing I had just taken the favorite…

You never know!!!

And if you’re STILL having trouble with your brackets, this is always fun!  The WSJ has a blind pick ‘em website that lets you look at several metrics but doesn’t reveal the team’s identities until all the picks are in.  Surprisingly, on my first time through I picked about the same as with my eyes wide open…with the exception of Witchy State.  I may have to go back and re-think that !

Give it a shot… http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2014/

FINAL NOTE!!!

I will probably e-mail all my picks tomorrow and these brackets are subject to change on a whim or last minute nugget of information I pick up somewhere.  But I believe the Elite 8’s and Final 4’s are set at this point.

And, as always….Choose Wisely!