FMQ Week #9: What Do You Do With Toothless Tigers Everywhere?????

And I’m not talking about Detroit, LSU, Grambling, or Clemson….But you could consider all of those teams/schools defanged after last weekend’s debacles and/or losses.

I’m talking about the NCAA.  What a joke.  The time it took to hand down the penalty (39 months  - almost 4 years from the time the Yahoo Report came out) to the actual penalty that pales in comparison to what was handed down at USC.  In fact, what was handed down at USC and the Reggie Bush issue was supposed to be only a wrist slap compared to what would happen to Miami.  In fact, PSU’s punishment was only the beginning of the hell that would be rained down on Miami for Strippers, cash payments to players, recruiting trips involving parties and the aforementioned strippers, etc…And then the NCAA screwed it all up.  By ‘paying” Shapiro’s lawyer for all the information regarding his activities, it virtually made all that information “illegally obtained” by the NCAA’s own rules for acquiring evidence.  Meaning:  virtually everything the NCAA learned about Miami and Shapiro was more or less thrown out of NCAA court on a technicality.  And what Miami was actually punished for was not even 10% of what was really uncovered - and admittedly they didn't uncover everything once that source was deemed unusable.  Sad….not that I agree with how the NCAA punishes and have gone on record many times before stating that fact.  What’s sad is that the NCAA couldn’t even manage an investigation that would have imposed at least some hefty monetary fines on Miami.  And Miami’s threat of a countersuit that would have uncovered the practices and procedures of the NCAA was not something the NCAA wanted to have to endure, either.  So, what it boils down to is:  Punish yourself (a little in seasons where it doesn’t matter anyway) and then stand up to the big, bad NCAA and threaten to bring the house down.  That makes the most flagrant cheating of our time worth about 3 scholarships a year.  At least that’s what seemed to work in the Miami case.

I didn’t comment on the Grambling Tigers on Monday due to the simple fact that I had no idea (nor did anyone, really) of the conditions at Grambling or what the facts of the matter were with the exception that the players had to take long bus rides to their away games and there were some “unacceptable” conditions within the weight and locker room and with uniforms not being clean.  Further investigation exposed a litany of issues that can only lead this critic to one conclusion:  Grambling has no business being in the college football “business”.  At least not at the FCS level.  Maybe they can function as a Level III or something….but to expect them to compete with bigger schools with bigger athletic budgets is asking too much.  And clearly the administration is overwhelmed with the negative numbers and cannot make ends meet.  Without an alumni donor like Phil Knight (Oregon), well, I guess there’s no shame in seeing Grambling football go the way of the dodo.  It happens.  It’s nothing to be sad about.  But if there’s no money at Grambling…well, there’s no program.  And maybe that’s not a terrible thing.

The Clemson Tigers have been spinning their wheels since the demoralizing loss at the hands of FSU.  Not only has there been a lot of nervous explanations coming out of the coaching staff, but now there’s (false) accusations of Boyd being $1,000’s of dollars in debt due to gambling.  It’s all BS, but to have to deal with that right after the impact of the blow-out loss to FSU makes me think that Clemson is the Sparty of the ACC.  Always looks good on paper…but can’t every quite get it all together when it counts.

The LSU Tigers on the other hand are also doing a lot of spin doctoring this week and the biggest spin doctor is the Hatter himself.  I don’t know why a school simply can’t own up to the fact that it got its butt kicked.  Ole Miss beat LSU.  It wasn’t a fluke.  They played and executed their game plan better than the Tigers and they beat them…..

And finally, the last of the Tigers to be discussed, Detroit lost its skipper, Jim Leyland, to resignation earlier this week.  Whether or not Jim would have made it to next season anyway is debatable.  I’m not saying I could have managed the Tigers any better in the play-offs, but there’s a lot of arm chair GM’s out there that are putting the blame for the Bo-Sox ALCS loss directly on Leyland.  And I can’t argue with them too much.  Bringing Coke up and then not letting him pitch to Ortiz with bases loaded in Game 2?  Giving Ortiz ANYTHING TO HIT in that spot is a major question mark…I would have rather unintentionally walked him than give him anything close to the strike zone that would have been one run…big deal…….A better manager making better game decisions and an improved closing pitching staff might be the only missing pieces right now…that and a healthy Cabrera and a Fielder that doesn’t disappear in the play-offs….

FMQ

Well, after last week’s semi-debacle, I feel like I’m a little out of touch with some teams right now.  I’m narrowing the scope and I’m going to roll with the teams on a roll…The trend is your friend…never forget that.

USC @ Mizzou (-2.5):  The numbers don’t lie and in this case, USC and Mizzou are as close as the spread suggests with PF’s and PA’s that are comparable.  But, there’s a little something else here going on:  USC’s starting QB is out and while I like the Ole Ball Coah and the way he can prep a QB, something tells me that being on the road is going to be a problem.  That and the Mizzou Seniors still have a lot of hate to get rid of from last year. 

Take Mizzou and lay the 2.5 for $40

UCLA @ Oregon (-23):  This one’s tough.  I really think UCLA can cover that spread…but WILL they?  I guess that’s always the question and the PF and PA analysis says we should lay some extra steam on the Ducks, but I dunno…I think this could be a squeaker with a defensive TD deciding the spread…

Take Oregon and lay the 23 for $50

Tennessee @ Bama (-28):  Here’s a team that’s really due to lose one ATS.  But I hate to bet against trends.  However, if there is one team that I like enough to beat the spread it might just be Butch Jones and this crew….The numbers suggest taking Bama and laying the points….I dunno..Therefore..PASS

Nebraska (-10.5) @ Minnesota:  I like Nebraska here and the numbers suggest that I’m more than correct in my assumption. 

Take Nebraska and lay the 10.5 for $60

Texas Tech (+7) @ Oklahoma:  Wow…I actually thought this would be more of a pick-em game.  I actually like the Red Raiders here even though they are playing in Norman. 

Take Texas Tech and the 7 for $50

MSU (-10) @ Illinois:  So, I’m glad I didn’t touch Sparty LAST week against Purdue.  I really don’t know what happened but I suspect it was some sort of SOS issue on the offense that kept them from executing and more importantly…SCORING!  The Illini have been good to me getting points at home this year. 

Take the Illini and the 10 for $50

Starting Bank:         $1,424.50
Total Bet:                  $280

BANK:                       $1,144.50

Seriously??? They Couldn't Have Found A LITTLE OF THAT For Last Saturday?

Monday’s entry is later than usual as I have just returned from a very nice extended weekend with my significant other and we had a chance to absorb some of the last vestiges of summer down in Siesta Key, Florida.  I will admit that it becomes more difficult to leave the warmer weather every time we do something like this and the thought of the “Cold, Grey Skies” that are coming in the upper Midwest are almost too much too bear…

Almost.  Football Saturday’s definitely help and I will admit that it’s extremely difficult to pull yourself off the beach when it’s 88 degrees with a Gulf of Mexico water temp of 81.  If I had to make that decision every weekend, even to leave and go watch it on a tube somewhere…Frankly, I don’t know how I’d do it.

So, cutting to the chase:  The Michigan analysis will be a little light but never the less:  WHERE THE @!#!!$#@%% was some of that offense LAST WEEK against PSU?  I’m starting to wonder if the Michigan coaches actually troll all the same blogs that I do (Yeah, this one included) and I wonder if they have figured out that the fans are paying attention and that when you screw up as a coach, there’s just way too much visibility out there that can be put on you.  I understand that coaches want to “protect” the kids.  Best way to protect them these days however seems to be letting them play and make plays….especially Gardner.  And Gallon sets a B1G record:  369 RECEIVING YARDS?  That used to be a 3 game total under Schembechler folks….and that was with Anthony Carter….

However, all kidding aside, it is always fun to watch football down in “ESS-EEE-SEE” country.  Our first tiki hut stop (After seeing the “Land Shark!”) was in

 

Mail Man....Candy Gram....LAND SHARK!

Siesta Key Village where we sat down about noon to see Mizzou take on Gatorland.  Of course, there were a couple of Gator Fans there that immediately commented on my Michigan T-Shirt and said they would explain this thing called “The Forward Pass” to me whenever Mizzou or Gatorland attempted one.  I simply reminded them of the Citrus bowl where Tebow went down to the Wolverines and I thought that there were quite a few “Forward Passes” thrown in that game…And that sort of shut them up. However, they went on to talk about how the Gator Defense would chew up this Frosh QB.  Then I remembered that Maty Mauk, a kid Michigan recruited pretty heavily, was going to get the start. (I never remember recruits, but somehow that kid’s name has stuck with me…Maybe it’s the poet that doesn’t know it in me that loved the potential alliteration that existed with the “Maty Mauk of Michigan!” tv/radio call….I dunno)   I made that comment to them as Mizzou received the ball.  You know,  just trying to be polite.  One of them than said, “Well, that makes me feel even better about the Gator’s chances!”  Then, Mauk throws on the first play from scrimmage for a long completion.  I just kind of glanced at the two but I didn’t say anything….Yet.  Then, about 4 plays later, Mauk passed for the opening drive TD.  Of course, your Ole MMQ couldn’t stay quiet very long.  “So, how are you feeling now?”  They claimed it was early game luck and that eventually Mauk would falter…Of course, that didn’t happen and I was able to outlast the Gator fans as they left their stools to find a more desolate location to watch in misery. 

The next stop found me next to some Georgia fans that were much less enthusiastic.  One saw my shirt and politely nodded and asked where I was from in Michigan.  He was actually from Birmingham and had moved to Florida about 5 years prior.  How he got to be a Dawg I didn’t ask.  But he was miserable and lamented about how bad the season had gone.   I didn’t get a chance to stay to the end of that one, but I’m sure he wasn’t a happy camper.

 Another local watering hole put me right into a group of multiple SEC fans, but some of the loudest were LSU fans.  There was a large group and I believe that they were all trying to do their best imitation of Les Miles or Les simply imitates every LSU fan I’ve ever met…not sure which.  Anyway, they started out happy…And I would have loved to have seen them after what Ole Miss did to them….

 And there were a TON of SEC fans in misery over the weekend….Which might be a great lead in to:

5 Stages of Slappy Fan Grief

1.  Denial and Isolation –All those 1-Loss or even 2-Loss SEC teams in the East (which, with the exception of Mizzou) is like, everyone, is still somehow believing that the other guys are gonna beat the team that they lost to in order for them to get into the SEC Championship game…only to get pounded by Alabama.  The Ole Ball Coach dumps one to “rival” UT and that has that fan base growling.  So, a lot of them are in the stage below as well.  But they are still somehow believing they have a shot.  AT this point, and maybe I’m living a little “B1G” denial here, but I would happily put the top 7 B1G teams (ohio, Wiscy, Sparty, NWU, Nebraska, Iowa and Michigan) up against the SEC East and play a round robin.  My guess is the B1G comes out on top more often than not.  Some other schools with fan bases that are in Denial are Stanford, LSU, and some Clemson fans who are just plain shocked…
2. ANGER  - This category literally EXPLODED With fanbases over the weekend.  The leader in the race to depression/acceptance with a long stay in the Anger phase has to be Clemson Fans.  They are without question angry at losing to FSU and trying to understand what happened Saturday night in their own house.  Dabo’s seat just got hot again and he’s gonna need a but cushion filled with ice cubes to cool it down.  Losing games like that was SUPPOSED TO HAVE ENDED after the WVU shellacking that Clemson took in the Orange a few years back.  Dabo vowed never again…Well, I’m no expert…But that looked a lot like a butt-kicking blow out of a score.  And if I’m a Clemson Fan, I might be screaming that it’s never going to change until we get rid of the coaching staff…And I might be right….LSU fans are down in this category for the simple reason that they controlled their fate and now they need a lot of help.  Believe it or not, I saw a couple of ohio fans at one of the pubs and they were extremely pissed that they weren’t KILLING Iowa and that this would hurt their chances long term for a title shot.  Gator Fan is down here along with South Carolina fan, too.  And we can’t forget about that Friday night score where UCF finishes off any chance Louisville had of a Title shot.  And what a place Siesta Key was to be on Friday as the town whooped up that win…But Cardinals everywhere slunked off to rage at the machine….
3. Bargaining – There’s also a whole slew of fans that are now in this stage.  Northwestern fans hit it hard here this weekend for the simple reason that any chance of a B1G title is no long gone when they were so close to upsetting the Boss of the B1G.  How quickly fates can change and the Wildcats are just trying to salvage a New Year’s Day game out of the season…if possible.  Add to them some USC Gamecocks and Trojans after dropping what was an extremely winnable game against the domers and it’s easy to see why this stage is really filling up and it’s getting to SRO (Standing Room Only).  Another group that is filling the Bargaining Stage:  Texas A&M slappies.  Losing to Auburn is not only a nail in the coffin, but I believe Sumlin will take those USC Pat Haden calls now along with whatever Texas might be offering.  Is that the NFL also calling?  Kevin is answering his cell now.  I want to believe that Razorback fans are down here in this mess simply because there cannot be any more anger in that fan base left….It is Beliema’s first year and while I’m sure he’ll make a 2^nd year, well, it IS the SEC you know….And who would Arkansas get….Petrino?  I’m going to add a couple of teams down here at the bottom simply because even if they win out, well, they are still on the outside looking in.  Based on the BCS that came out today, OREGON (which I think has an opportunity to improve their computer ranking), Baylor, ohio, and Mizzou are looking in.  Mizzou is interesting in that even if they beat Bama, their computer numbers are suggesting that it won’t be enough to lift them into the title game over an Oregon or FSU…That to me doesn’t make complete sense and I’ve only seen that in one place…more on that in the BCS Mess….
4. Depression – Oh, so many depressed slappys who’s hopes and dreams are crushed with each opposing TD and demoralizing loss…..NWU, Georgia, Gatorland, Game Cocks, Trojans and Horned Frogs to name a few…. 
5. Acceptance – Kansas.  They have to accept the fact that Jabba the Hut is their coach and nothing will change until he does.    

The BCS Mess

It’s out, so let’s cut to the chase:

Rank	Team	Record	Rank	Pts	%	Rank	Pts	%	Avg	Avg	Last Week
1.	Alabama	7-0	1	2615	.9962	1	1544	.9961	.960	.9841	--
2.	Florida St.	6-0	3	2401	.9147	3	1410	.9097	.980	.9348	--
3.	Oregon	7-0	2	2520	.9600	2	1482	.9561	.880	.9320	--
4.	Ohio St.	7-0	4	2321	.8842	4	1382	.8916	.790	.8553	--
5.	Missouri	7-0	6	2026	.7718	7	1184	.7639	.930	.8219	--
6.	Stanford	6-1	8	1952	.7436	8	1117	.7206	.760	.7414	--
7.	Miami (FL)	6-0	7	2008	.7650	6	1186	.7652	.630	.7200	--
8.	Baylor	6-0	5	2038	.7764	5	1255	.8097	.550	.7120	--
9.	Clemson	6-1	10	1616	.6156	10	913	.5890	.670	.6249	--
10.	Texas Tech	7-0	9	1662	.6331	9	981	.6329	.600	.6220	--

 Too much football to be played to really get into this yet…but suffice to say I’m pissed if I’m Oregon, ohio, Mizzou (but that can change quickly), or Baylor.  However, I have seen an interesting post that if Mizzou wins out, they will have leaped frogged all of the SEC they were supposed to be behind and the SEC conspiracy theorists are alive and well that the SEC is over rated in it’s entirety on the weekly polling system.  I tend to agree. 

Idle Thoughts From Saturday

-Sparty that close…to PURDUE? 
-Are they suddenly somehow getting better or something?
-Purdue I mean? 
-Gatorlander just complained about “warm ice” in his cocktail and requested more…ice….
-“Warm Ice?”  I had to ask…
-“You know, it’s ice that’s melted down too small and isn’t doing anything…”
-I assumed he had a degree from Florida…maybe I was wrong?  Or not….
-An oxymoron is a term that uses an unlikely adjective to describe itself and produces an incongruous or “false” statement: ie – Jumbo Shrimp, Anticipated Serendipity, Sparty Intelligence…(see –I have to explain that stuff for all the Spartan’s reading)
-(You KNEW I was going there…didn’t ya’????)
-Gatorland doesn’t respect ANYBODY….
-Maybe Bama
-These fans are still living in the Urban Legend years…
-That’s pretty clear down here.
-Hey, if Mizzou wins it all, you know, beats Bama….Does that make them number 1 after starting the season ranked in lower than 15?
-Tennessee-USC game is shaping up to be a good one.
-Butch Jones is going to have that team playing better in another year or so..
-Meaning winning more…
-Ole Ball Coach goes DOWN!
-I’m nervous about IU…
-Isn’t that sick?
-Used to be a W for the W/L column and look towards next week…
-Now, not so much…
-Great, I can’t find a tiki bar in Siesta Key that gets the BTN. 
-Transplanted Bartender just expressed his hate for the BTN…
-Because Sparty is on there a lot and this particular tiki hut doesn’t get the BTN..
-One bartender “THINKS” there might be a bar back in Sarasota that does…
-And he’s sure that the BW3’s has it…or he’s “pretty sure”
-Another Oxymoron…”I’m almost 100% certain…”  That’s kinda’ like being a little pregnant…ya’ know?
-Okay – Michigan nation is keeping me in the loop via texts.  About 100 on the day to be exact. 
-Big Thanks to the Tailgate Crew on that front!
-Beer is really cold here in Florida…maybe that’s because it’s 90?
-I know fans at the game are freezing their collective hiney’s off…And it was a little sparse, Michigan fans….
-Protesting the 3:30 start time? 
-I don’t blame you..I can’t as I’m not there, either. 
-Gardner is passing the lights out.  And I’m seeing highlights on TV’s all around me….
-I can see why if you don’t LIVE in BTN land, you kind of HATE the BTN.
-Hoo-boy….don’t look now but A&M in Trouble….
-I’ll bet Wiscy would like that ASU game back…Just cause.
-I know it doesn’t mean anything for the B1G….
-Michigan can’t be stopped by IU…but neither can they STOP IU….
-I was looking for an oxymoron to fit there…can’t find one.
-Wait – “Offensive Defense”? 
-Works for me…
-Why can’t we stop IU?  WHERE’S THE BTN? DAMMIT!!!!
-I know…Nobody knows the troubles I have…
-Sweating in the shade and my beer’s getting warmer faster than I can drink it…
-I need to find a friendly place for the 8:00 game..
-Too many Red Sox fans down here…
-Finally found a place that has the BTN…but had to drive.
-Of course, Michigan game over.
-Tigers coming on.  I don’t like the looks of this…too many Bo-Sox in this place…
-FSU-Clemson off to a fast start. 
-Holy smokes…this thing could be over before the half.
-If I’m Clemson, I’m angry….
-If I’m a Detroit Fan, I can’t STOP thinking about game 2….
-And that passed ball in Game 4.
-Tigers done…When are they going to put it all together?
-Is it Leyland?
-Notice how I’ve made it this far and I have NOT MENTIONED FRED AND BARNEY?
-Because they still are Fred and Barney.  They need to beat somebody else before they lose that moniker…
-Preferably on the road…Sparty….

The Hot Seat

Brooklyn Decker carries over for a 2^nd week!  It’s been awhile since we haven’t had a new nominee hold serve and we’ll see what the Hot Seat Mascot for Week #8 Natasha Poly can do!  A Victoria’s Secret Model and she’s not looking to shabby!

 

 

GONE LIST:  (It’s not the EARLIEST we’ve ever had a gone list….but it’s the earliest “in season” we’ve had a Gone List…)

1.  LANE KIFFIN
2. Paul Pasqualoni
3. Treadwell

Hot Seat Rank

1. Hazell:  I know it’s his first year…but Purdue is really, really bad…
2. Weiss:  Why not?  This week…there’s another reason…..
3. Snyder:  Look out…Grandpa Jokes are going to start flying….
4. Holgorensen:  Moves down a little…but had better find a consistent offense
5. DABO:  Losing that big has to get you on the list…and He might move higher…
6. Richt – Wow…Again, injuries are tough….
7. STOOPS:  How do you lose to this guy right below you?
8. Biliema:  Arkansas Nation does not like getting blanked by Bama…
9. Mack Brown:  Definitely falling fast and will be off the list if he keeps winning….
10. Mullens – Mississippi State…Still ofer….

FMQ Betting Results:

Went a little lighter than normal this week as I felt there were too many “things” that should start happening in the college football upset world.   We’ll take stock again next week and see if we can get a little heavier in order to make our goal of doubling up.

Bama (-28) @ Arkansas:  Take Bama and lay the 28 for $70

WIN!  BANK  $133

WSU @ Oregon (-37):  Take the Ducks and lay the 37 for $60

WIN!  BANK  $114

LSU (-7) @ Ole Miss: Man….If I would JUST FOLLOW MY OWN MATH!

Take LSU and lay the 8 for $30

LOSE….

Gators @ Mizzou (-3):  Take Mizzou and lay the 3 for $30

WIN!  Bank $57

UCLA (+5) @ Stanford:  Take UCLA and the 5 for $40

LOSE…..

Indiana (-9) @ Michigan:  Take Michigan and lay the 9 for $30

WIN!  BANK  $57

Starting BANK:       $1,063.50

TOTAL WIN:            $361

BANK:                       $1,425.50

FMQ Week #8 - There IS Life After PSU...Just Call Us "Spoilers - North"

Well, I believe that I’m officially over the emotional part of the loss to PSU, but I’m still not quite sure where this season is going.   If you had a chance to read Tuesday’s post, you are now intimately aware with exactly how awful Michigan is at running on 1^st Down.  Most teams, as noted, given a complete lack of success (at whatever they are trying) simply give up after a certain number of attempts.  That’s called, “SANITY”.  And we all know, the definition of “INSANITY” is:  Keep doing the exact same thing (that isn’t working) and expect different results.

That is Michigan’s offensive game plan in a nutshell.  However, there has been TREMENDOUS Amount of publicity, sports talk, etc on how egg-headed and stubborn Michigan’s offensive play-calling has been.  After reading the post game presser and Monday’s press conference wrap, it sounded a “little” like Fred came around on his way of thinking about the offense, but was still ready to say that the team wasn’t “executing the plays the way they needed to be executed.”  And there’s this from Michael Schofield:
On what it's like to see the run game struggle ... "Well, it's painful, especially in a loss like that. We just have to take what we can from that film and learn as much as we can and improve. We can't let Penn State beat us twice, like coach keeps saying. We have to come out next week ready to go."

Well, as my kids say, “No Dip, Sherlock…Tell me something I don’t know…”  You guys have said that you’ve had a great week of practice every week and are ready to go…I’m not buying it at this point. 

What I need to hear is that Fred and Barney are going to change the playbook around to fit the talent vs. playing an offense that will NEVER FUNCTION the way you want it to with the players you have.  In fact, if we don’t see something different against Indiana…Well, it’s beyond stubborn and just plain stupid.  And that will lead me to not only question whether or not Barney will be here in a year’s time…But I will also need to figure out whether or not Fred is a keeper as well.  Yeah, he’s recruiting the crap out of Michigan and the country…but if you’re not going to use the Ferrari talent you have and try to drive what you do have like a three on the tree pick-up truck…well, we may have no choice but to run Fred out of Slate Quarry and Bedrock entirely…..

And another thing completely unrelated but somewhat questionable in a way:  What’s with the Figgie line that ESPN and others are putting on the field???  Don’t get me wrong, I like graphics.  But, has it been there all season and have I just missed it?  I noticed it a lot on Saturday and I don’t think I like it….I equate it to the female belly button.   If you’ve made it that far…well… you already have “two first downs” in your hands at least and you should really keep going.  As a fan I would rather not know that “I’m close to a score” and it’ll send the exact type of wrong mental vibes to a conservative coach that doesn’t need any more thoughts of slowing down.  He needs to hear fans thinking, “SCORE NOW!  GO DEEP!”  and stuff like that….

Just sayin’…..

FMQ

There’s value this week and we might be taking a few more than we’re laying in…I received an e-mail asking me about my “system”.  While I do refer to it as a system, it’s objective and subjective array of information that helps me figure out which way to bet the game and how much to bet.  In short:

Money Management:

-Odd games bet, whenever possible, but I’ve been relaxing that rule recently in favor or a larger spread in betting units.
-No more than 30% of total bankroll in play

Determining who to bet and number of units.

Start with a neutral bet of 4 units. (Never bet 2 units unless in parlay, so fewest number of units bet in game is 3)

No more than 7 units of action on any one game

What is record of each team ATS (Against The Spread)?

1.     Favor team that has better ATS record.  If record excellent, then add extra unit to bet
2.    Who is home?  Favor home team, especially if a revenge game.  But only for ½ to 3 points or so.  I don’t think Vegas values this nearly enough…
3.    PF/PA Ratios for Favorite and Dog.  IF the PF/PA ratios added together and divided by 2 is larger than 1.5, add a unit. 2 units if the ratio is over 2.  See the math below to get a better idea of what I’m doing here.  Again, it’s not an indicator for who will win, but it gives me additional confidence to bet the max units…..
4.    What are the states of mind of the teams playing?
5.    Who’s the coach?  Are they merciless?  Is the team full speed only?  Basketball on grass?  Hoke ball?

6.    Make the bet.

So, looking at the first game this week:

Bama (-28) @ Arkansas:  Bama is rolling…Arkansas is reeeeeling under Beliema…add all the fancy math-work in from above and you have an easy bet laying $70…

PF ratio:  Bama PF233:Ark PF 98=2.37!     PA Ratio:    ARK PA - 158/Bama - 68 = 2.32! 

Bama 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. Arkansas

Take Bama and lay the 28 for $70

USC @ domers (-3):  I really can’t remember the last time this game mattered and I was actually “excited” to watch it.  I guess it’s more interesting now that Orgeron is the head coach and maybe he can orchestrate an upset….but I’m not sure I want to bet on it with only a 3 point differential to work with…PASS

WSU @ Oregon (-37):  I hope everyone is starting to see how this works.  Based on the system, we already KNOW that Oregon is wicked strong ATS (7-0 last 7) But WSU is 5-2 ATS in the last 7, which isn’t too shabby, either.  So, let’s assume that we’re going to lay the points. 

PF:  341 (that’s sick, by the way, Duckys):209 = 1.63    PA:  177:83:  2.13  (WOW!)

Here’s why, so far anyway, I think the Ducks are WAY underrated.  They have held their opponents to 83 points and hung 341 points back on them.  The PF/PA ratio is hugely in favor of laying the points and maxing the units.  However, let’s look at the HTH matchup over the last 5 or so games….WSU is a surprising 4-1 vs. OREGON ATS!  So, what do we do with this nugget of info?

With Leach in his first year and having never been to Autzen , I just can’t go against the Quackers, but I’m not going to max the units as the Ducks are more than likely going to let me down at some point.
Take the Ducks and lay the 37 for $60

LSU (-7) @ Ole Miss:  This one is a little tougher.  I like the Hatter – always have.  I think Ole Miss is slightly overmatched in this one on both sides of the ball.  But what does the math tell us here?  I see BOTH teams are quite good against the number:  LSU 4-2-1 and  Ole Miss 6-2…Not a lot to make me lean one way or the other there…what about the math?

PF Ratio:  253:174 = 1.45    PA Ratio:    154: 167 = 0.922. 

Okay, this is where this ratio comes in handy.   I think this game is still worthy of a $40 bet on LSU as they are outscoring Ole Miss quite handily, but PA is a no tell, and LSU’s DEFENSE sucked early in the season and has improved dramatically since Georgia.  And there’s no way I can put more action on it based on the above.  But is it worth the $40?

Ole Miss is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings against LSU!!!!  Wow….That’s impressive.  Still, knock $10 off because I simply can’t bet Ole Miss here even though the trend over the last 11 meetings says I should. 

Take LSU and lay the 8 for $30

Gators @ Mizzou (-3):  This game is interesting…Mizzou QB hurt but the Gators lost another piece of their offense now that their Tailback is out for the season.  Mizzou is hungry and will be looking to win at home and take control of the SEC east.  The PF’s and PA are kind of throw aways for this game. It happens when the guy responsible for all the PF’s for Mizzou goes out with a shoulder injury.  Still, I like Mizzou at home here if for no other reason than Mizzou wants to prove to the SEC that A&M isn’t the only “real deal” to come out of the Big 12.

Take Mizzou and lay the 3 for $30

UCLA (+5) @ Stanford:  Everyone knows I like to ride Stanford, but the numbers and trends may surprise in this game.  I was actually leaning towards UCLA and the points here, so let’s draw it up that way. 

PF:  229:217 = 1.05     PA:  133:91 = 1.46

I’m leery of the PF ratio even though UCLA has the favorable PA ratio, I’m not inclined to bet anymore units, but have a sneaky feeling the 5 point spread is going to be in the realm of possibility. 

UCLA is currently 5-0 ATS…That I LIKE.  Stanford has been a disappointing 2-4 ATS….That, if I’m leaning UCLA I like, too.  So, even though I think the Cardinal has their backs against the proverbial wall, they win a close one and UCLA covers. 

Take UCLA and the 5 for $40

Indiana (-9) @ Michigan:  Once you see the data for this game, you’ll know why so many gamers simply don’t bet Michigan.  There’s no trend in the last 9 games for Michigan meaning that they are around 0.500 ATS and they are “up and down”  with no more than a 1 game trend in either direction.  Indiana is the same.  I would “lean” towards Michigan at Home here, but I’m not ready to go there just yet.   Let’s look at the math (assuming we’re betting Michigan):

PF:  234:250  = 0.936   PA:     197:140 = 1.407

Yikes…..This is telling me that with a ratio below 1 I should really be looking at taking Indiana and the points here.   Michigan is scoring less points than IU and they are giving up fewer…but not enough to move the needle and the defense isn’t “OWNING” games…So now what?  I’m certainly not betting the $40.  We’re down to $30.  But which way?  Michigan may be up-down meaning they should have a big “up week” at home after the disaster in Happy Valley….what else?

Michigan is 6-0 in the last 6 against IU and 3-3 ATS.  It’s a coin flip…So, I’ll

Take Michigan and lay the 9 for $30

Starting Bank:         $1,323.50

Total Bet:                  $260

BANK:                       $1063.50